Heavy Fighting in South Ossetia

[ICantSpellDawg]

Georgia began an operation against South Ossetia after they agreed to a second ceasefire. Georgia started this round.

Georgia broke a ceasefire and admit that, but they did not ignite the conflict here. South Ossetians seem to have done this and inflamed the conflict by destroying a Georgian APC. This is what the U.S. maintains as well. This is Russian opportunism and i'm suprised that this is not your interpretation of it, EMFM. They will use this opportunity to sever Abhkazia and South Ossetia from Georgia once and for all. Former Soviet satellites should understand how ridiculous this is.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Russian population: ~142 mill.
Georgian population: 4-5 mill.

Wish them good luck.

Unless Russia is planning on going to war with Georgia as a whole they could potentially be bloodied.

[KrooK]

Osetia is part of Georgia practically under Russian ocupation....
Russia started it all.

[Marshal Murat]

Howza 'bout we blame the Mongols for pushing the Ossetians into Georgia?
Novogrod for forming the basis for the Russian Empire, which spread to the Caucaus Mountain region?

[Megalos]

This is very serious indeed.

I just hope that monkey, that the Americans call Bush, see's through Georgia's manipulation of America and NATO and doesn't back them in the slightest. Afterall, the Georgians had no need to go back into the region after so many years.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Georgia broke a ceasefire and admit that, but they did not ignite the conflict here.

Well, by breaking the ceasefire they started the present conflict.

This is Russian opportunism and i'm suprised that this is not your interpretation of it, EMFM.

Certainly they are taking advantage of the situtation. Any country would do the same. Georgia attempted to take advantage by attacking South Ossetia, and they failed when the big kid on the block stepped in to take advantage. The little kid (Ossetia) seems to prefer the big kid to the medium kid.

They will use this opportunity to sever Abhkazia and South Ossetia from Georgia once and for all.

Why is that a problem if that is what Abkhazia and South Ossetia want? Because it is the Russians doing it?

My point is that this is a local conflict and no threat whatsoever to the Western world. I don't consider Georgia particularily useful, and I've lost all sympathy I may have had for them when they attacked Ossetia after agreeing to a ceasefire hours before.

[Marshal Murat]

My point is that this is a local conflict and no threat whatsoever to the Western world.

Even the smallest grain of rice can tip the scales - Mulan

It's a matter of principle for me. It has raised an interesting philosophical question.

Why would I support Kosovo and Tibet independence and decry Ossetian and Abhakazian independence? I would say that it's because Tibet and Kosovo wish to be free and independent nations. Ossetia and Abhakazia (sp?) wish to be a part of Russia. It's a dangerous precedent. Were there a significant majority of illegal Mexican immigrants to move into Southern Texas, and then settle there? They might ask to leave this Union, and join the nation of Mexico! It would be absurd for me to allow the Mexican immigrants any right to rejoin Mexico. The same, to me, applies to Ossetia and Abhakazia.

Seeing Georgia break a ceasefire is disgraceful, but considering the swift (surprising swift) Russian response, not only in Ossetia but across the nation of Georgia? Were Russia to march in only to Ossetia and attempt to prevent further Georgian advances, and then attempt to argue for mediation, that I would understand. However, continued Russian aggression is disconcerting. Georgia is a small nation and the seemingly large Russian response makes me feel bad for Georgia. Call it the "David vs. Goliath" mentality of Americans.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Even the smallest grain of rice can tip the scales - Mulan

Only if you let it.

Seeing Georgia break a ceasefire is disgraceful, but considering the swift (surprising swift) Russian response, not only in Ossetia but across the nation of Georgia?

It's not really surprisingly swift. Russia already had forces there, and when the order comes, they can move quickly. That is the whole point of keeping a prepared military - to respond swiftly.

Georgia is a small nation and the seemingly large Russian response makes me feel bad for Georgia. Call it the "David vs. Goliath" mentality of Americans.

I also see it as a David vs. Goliath battle, only I see South Ossetia as David, Georgia as Goliath, and something much larger coming to help South Ossetia when it requires it.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Russian peacekeeper troops in South Ossetia obvioualy failed in their duty to keep the peace since the Georgian APC was destroyed. South Ossetia is Georgia's territory, they have every right to defend themselves within it.

South Ossetia is just an excuse for Russia to invade or at least impose its influence over Georgia.

[Caius]

Well, now we know for sure which country is the first one to be absorbed into Comrade Putin's new Soviet Union.

I'm laughing at you right now Comrade. Come on, its absurd! I mean, you can't judge the book by the portade. Communism is something more than the party. You don't need just the party, but you also need a lot of conditions to make it work. Well, I think its my opinion.

[Crazed Rabbit]

I've got to agree with TuffStuff; I see this as Russian action to prevent Georgia from joining NATO. I don't think they give one care in the world for the Ossetians (sp?).

Georgia helped us in Iraq and were looking to join NATO. I think we need to support them morally and to show Russia it can't bully everyone around anymore.

CR

[Ice]

I'm laughing at you right now Comrade. Come on, its absurd! I mean, you can't judge the book by the portade. Communism is something more than the party. You don't need just the party, but you also need a lot of conditions to make it work. Well, I think its my opinion.

He isn't saying Russia is communist. "Putin's Soviet Union" wouldn't be communist.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

I've got to agree with TuffStuff; I see this as Russian action to prevent Georgia from joining NATO. I don't think they give one care in the world for the Ossetians (sp?).

I doubt the Russians care much for the Ossetians either. But the Ossetians within South Ossetia want the Russians, and the Ossetians within Russia want the Ossetians outside of Russia. Russia has good relations with Ossetia, and it is natural from them to aid Ossetia in its hour of need.

I think we need to support them morally and to show Russia it can't bully everyone around anymore.

I think that some people are missing the point. Georgia attacked South Ossetia and broke the peacekeeping deal they had with the Russians and the Ossetians. Russia did not cross the border until this was done.

[Marshal Murat]

EMFM, why do you hate freedom?

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

EMFM, why do you hate freedom?

I don't, I love it. Which is why I am supporting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, who want to be free of Georgia.

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

It's a shame all three parties can't lose.

[Marshal Murat]

Alexander, I have no idea how serious you are, but just wait until the EU gets involved.
It might just get worse.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

If everyone is smart, we will let this regional conflict die away. This isn't worth a larger war. But then again, less has sparked much more.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

It's getting worse. Though I suspect incidents like those mentioned in the article have been going on for several hours at least, a full military conflict between Georgia and Russia will ensue unless the UN gets something together quickly. I've already said that I believe South Ossetia is in the right in this conflict, but I'm still hoping it doesn't escalate.

[Devastatin Dave]

It's getting worse. Though I suspect incidents like those mentioned in the article have been going on for several hours at least, a full military conflict between Georgia and Russia will ensue unless the UN gets something together quickly. I've already said that I believe South Ossetia is in the right in this conflict, but I'm still hoping it doesn't escalate.

The UN? Hahahahahaha!!!
Riiight, the UN is going to "swiftly" move in on this one!!! Man, no offense to you Mr Martian but there is a better possibility of Boy George going straight than the UN doing anything but talk in this one.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

The UN? Hahahahahaha!!!
Riiight, the UN is going to "swiftly" move in on this one!!! Man, no offense to you Mr Martian but there is a better possibility of Boy George going straight than the UN doing anything but talk in this one.

Did I say I thought they were going to do anything? If I don't trust the EU, what makes you think I'll trust the UN? Allow me to clarify my original post. A full military conflict between Russia and Georgia will ensue, barring a miracle. We're screwed.

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

Alexander, I have no idea how serious you are, but just wait until the EU gets involved.
It might just get worse.

I was pretty serious. The Russians are hypocrites at best, imperialists at worse. The Georgians and Ossetians are probably equally guilty of slaughter, though the Ossetians come off better because they were losing until the Russians got involved. If intervention turns military, that can only end in (more) tears.

[nokhor]

i've read that there's basically only one real road between russia and georgia and that is closed during the winter. the border is basically one huge mountain range so that should heavily favor the defensive. georgia obviously timed the escalation to coiincide with most of the world's leaders being in beijing, giving putin and world leaders less time to be able to respond immediately to the crisis. and it doesn't matter which side actually broke the ceasefire, the fact that georgian troops were able to converge on the south ossetian capital within hours of the ceasefire being broken, to me proves that that wasn't just by accident. operational plans like that don't get created on the fly.

so my interpretation is that georgia is looking for a lightning quick conquest of s. ossetia before winter. by the time russia actually mobilizes and is able to launch a real attack in the spring, georgia will be so fortified that it would make chechnya look like a walk in the park. it is very difficult for russia logistically to get to georgia with troops numbering in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and only forces of that magnitude would be enough to pacify georgia itself. not to mention, since georgia borders chechnya, they could threaten to destabilize that whole ball of wax again.

but i think saakashvilli (sp?) is playing with fire. let's say this whole thing has been engineered by russia, so what? the ossetians are not ethnically georgians, it only has one sizeable city, the population, resources and size of the region is miniscule, is this worth the price that georgia will have to pay in lives and millions of dollars to try and keep this place with very little guarantee of success? but nationalism can make people do irrational things sometimes.

[PBI]

If everyone is smart, we will let this regional conflict die away. This isn't worth a larger war. But then again, less has sparked much more.

Pretty much my thoughts. I certainly don't think this conflict is necessarily as black and white as some are making out, and I certainly see no reason to pick sides. Seems to me the best we can hope for is for the conflict to be over quickly, with relatively little bloodshed.

[Decker]

i've read that there's basically only one real road between russia and georgia and that is closed during the winter. the border is basically one huge mountain range so that should heavily favor the defensive. georgia obviously timed the escalation to coiincide with most of the world's leaders being in beijing, giving putin and world leaders less time to be able to respond immediately to the crisis. and it doesn't matter which side actually broke the ceasefire, the fact that georgian troops were able to converge on the south ossetian capital within hours of the ceasefire being broken, to me proves that that wasn't just by accident. operational plans like that don't get created on the fly.

so my interpretation is that georgia is looking for a lightning quick conquest of s. ossetia before winter. by the time russia actually mobilizes and is able to launch a real attack in the spring, georgia will be so fortified that it would make chechnya look like a walk in the park. it is very difficult for russia logistically to get to georgia with troops numbering in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and only forces of that magnitude would be enough to pacify georgia itself. not to mention, since georgia borders chechnya, they could threaten to destabilize that whole ball of wax again.

but i think saakashvilli (sp?) is playing with fire. let's say this whole thing has been engineered by russia, so what? the ossetians are not ethnically georgians, it only has one sizeable city, the population, resources and size of the region is miniscule, is this worth the price that georgia will have to pay in lives and millions of dollars to try and keep this place with very little guarantee of success? but nationalism can make people do irrational things sometimes.

Ahh see but you're missing the fact that Russia has also threatened military action against Georgia over S. Ossetia before the cease-fire and so they had their military pretty much ready to go. And when the ceasefire was confirmed the day before the "invasion," Georgian military forces were already prepared to invade as it was. So from what has happened, Georgia commenced a very quick strike against S. Ossetia's capital as they probably were preparing to do so before the "ceasefire," and probably hoped to be in position to adequately fend off any serious Russian advance.

And as for the road leading in, I've read that there are two roads, one being a tunnel, and from the pictures and video, it appears the Russians used the road rather than a bottleneck tunnel which could turn into a disaster for the Russians if defended well.

And it does matter who broke the cease-fire. You have the Georgian pres. doing his "best" to accuse Russia of starting the festivities while it is clear to everyone else that they, the Georgians, ignited the fighting by "blitzkrieging" into S. Ossetia's capital. And it is obvious that this is a bit of a land-grab by both countries, but with Georgia starting the fighting, it's hard to say if they'll get any support short of political pressure put on Russia to back off from crushing Georgia and from Georgia from invading S. Ossetia again. In the end, if fighting DOES stop, then we might see a type of Kosovo evolve there if nothing else works as I don't see anyone wanting to ignite some sort of...world war threeish scenario.

[Banquo's Ghost]

It should be noted that Russia officially recognises Georgia's current borders and territorial integrity. The referenda in Abkhazia and South Ossetia that emboldened them to declare unilateral independence have not been recognised internationally. There is no legal framework for Russia's actions.

The high number of ethnic Russians in these regions is a mere fig leaf for imperialism. The Russians have thrown that one around to intimidate the Baltic States and Ukraine for years. Would we understand so readily if they had invaded Estonia over that incident with the war memorials? Are we keen to allow Kurdistan to win, through terrorism, her separation from Turkey and Iraq? Russian citizenship has been distributed like candy to ensure a nominal majority, and "peacekeepers" (oh joy, another euphemism for terrorists makes it into the dictionary) amply supplied with weaponry and resource.

These threats have been long standing, and occasionally emphasised with fly-overs and incursions. Georgia - a democratic nation, western facing - has lost patience. I'm not so sure they have made a mistake - the Russian military may be big, but it is largely demotivated conscripts with poor training and leadership. The last imperial expedition in Chechnya (also facilitated by some fancy provocation and theatrical "terror" attacks) still bleeds Russian youth dry and returns them drunk and violent to the streets of Petersburg and Moscow.

Imperialism should be opposed by the West, and I am pleased to see the reasonably stern responses so far. Russia is a dangerous beast fuelled by nationalism, and wars are the fodder for such creatures. The comparison with the Sudetenland is not much of a stretch.

And one should not forget that Krook has the essence of it - this is mainly about the pipeline, and its threat to Russian hegemony over supply to Europe.

[Sarmatian]

Pipeline doesn't threaten Russia that much. Two large markets for Russian natural gas and oil exist and a pipeline isn't such a big deal. The big deal is that Georgia wants to join NATO.

But funny how Russia, by virtue of name, becomes the bad guy in any situation. Anything else is irrelevant. If Russia is involved, no one will look up what's happening, who broke the ceasefire who attacked the peacekeeping force and so on.

Do a little word game and change the words Georgia, Ossetia and Russia with Serbia, Kosovo and NATO.

What would we get then - Serbia broke the ceasefire, attacked it's breakaway province of Kosovo and NATO peacekeepers. NATO would respond in that situation surely. Just wondering if the majority of people here would be so quick to say how imperialistic evil NATO attacks poor, little Serbia. Ah, well, can't be helped, can't be helped. Some people want to believe their own little myths and live in a world where good and bad depends solely on which side they are...

[King Henry V]

To my mind the point of Southern Ossetia wanting to excersise its right to self-determination is at this point in time irrelevant. There are many small ethnic groups and wannabe countries around the world; another one doesn't really matter. However, what does matter is the growing power of the Russian bear, and its wish to become a dominant power once more in the world. The western powers should not concern themselves with the fact (and it probably is a fact) that one ethnic group is being oppressed by another in a corner of the world. What they should concern themselves with is the fact that Russia is flexing its muscles, taking small steps to show how far it can reach. This time it is in a rather insignificant (apart from the pipeline, another reason for Western interest) corner of the world. But next time, who knows? It might be a bit closer to home, and ever closer, unless Russia is stopped and its neo-imperialist policies nipped in the bud.


The solution? Well in my opinion the only thing that can and must be done is complete and unequivocal support of Georgia on the part of NATO. Despatch a fleet to the Black Sea (Turkey should be able to provide the bulk of the ships), send a NATO delegation to Tiblisi, heck, even emergency and immediate entrance of Georgia into the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

Whatever the methods, Russia must be stopped.

[Rhyfelwyr]

I don't, I love it. Which is why I am supporting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, who want to be free of Georgia.

It seems this isn't just a case of a poor little oppresed people seeking independance. The problem in South Ossetia is riddled with fighting between clans, with no real Russian or Georgian identities. Russia has taken advantage of this to gain influence in the region by buying the support of many Ossetian clans through supplying them with arms, thus fuelling the disorder within Georgian territory.

Having gained the loyalty of clan leaders, Russia then sends in 'peacekeeper' troops to the region, claiming to defend 'Russian' people. So when Georgia attempts to establish control over its own territory, crippled by disorder, Georgia appears as the aggressor, despite the fact that this land is officially recognised by Russia as Georgian territory.

And after the fighting begins it soon becomes clear that Russia is not on a peackeeping mission, as can be seen from the bombings by the Russia jets.

Since historical comparisons with Germany are fun, it sounds like a similar situation to Prussia and Austria over Schleswig and Hostein. Austria (Georgia) wanted to send troops to protect its northern territory, but had to cross Prussian (Russian) occupied lands to do this. This made Austria appear as the aggressor, giving Prussia the chance to mobilise its own troops in 'self defence'. And in the end, the big guy won (what's the modern equivalent of needle guns? - they always remind me of Needlers from Halo). Unless a bigger guy now comes to the rescue...

[Tribesman]

Whatever the methods, Russia must be stopped.

Yeah , and as soon as someone in Europe says Putin is being a naughty boy Putin cuts the gas and asks them to rephrase their statement .