Heavy Fighting in South Ossetia

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

EMFM, why do you hate freedom?

I don't, I love it. Which is why I am supporting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, who want to be free of Georgia.

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

It's a shame all three parties can't lose.

[Marshal Murat]

Alexander, I have no idea how serious you are, but just wait until the EU gets involved.
It might just get worse.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

If everyone is smart, we will let this regional conflict die away. This isn't worth a larger war. But then again, less has sparked much more.

[PBI]

If everyone is smart, we will let this regional conflict die away. This isn't worth a larger war. But then again, less has sparked much more.

Pretty much my thoughts. I certainly don't think this conflict is necessarily as black and white as some are making out, and I certainly see no reason to pick sides. Seems to me the best we can hope for is for the conflict to be over quickly, with relatively little bloodshed.

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

Alexander, I have no idea how serious you are, but just wait until the EU gets involved.
It might just get worse.

I was pretty serious. The Russians are hypocrites at best, imperialists at worse. The Georgians and Ossetians are probably equally guilty of slaughter, though the Ossetians come off better because they were losing until the Russians got involved. If intervention turns military, that can only end in (more) tears.

[nokhor]

i've read that there's basically only one real road between russia and georgia and that is closed during the winter. the border is basically one huge mountain range so that should heavily favor the defensive. georgia obviously timed the escalation to coiincide with most of the world's leaders being in beijing, giving putin and world leaders less time to be able to respond immediately to the crisis. and it doesn't matter which side actually broke the ceasefire, the fact that georgian troops were able to converge on the south ossetian capital within hours of the ceasefire being broken, to me proves that that wasn't just by accident. operational plans like that don't get created on the fly.

so my interpretation is that georgia is looking for a lightning quick conquest of s. ossetia before winter. by the time russia actually mobilizes and is able to launch a real attack in the spring, georgia will be so fortified that it would make chechnya look like a walk in the park. it is very difficult for russia logistically to get to georgia with troops numbering in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and only forces of that magnitude would be enough to pacify georgia itself. not to mention, since georgia borders chechnya, they could threaten to destabilize that whole ball of wax again.

but i think saakashvilli (sp?) is playing with fire. let's say this whole thing has been engineered by russia, so what? the ossetians are not ethnically georgians, it only has one sizeable city, the population, resources and size of the region is miniscule, is this worth the price that georgia will have to pay in lives and millions of dollars to try and keep this place with very little guarantee of success? but nationalism can make people do irrational things sometimes.

[Decker]

i've read that there's basically only one real road between russia and georgia and that is closed during the winter. the border is basically one huge mountain range so that should heavily favor the defensive. georgia obviously timed the escalation to coiincide with most of the world's leaders being in beijing, giving putin and world leaders less time to be able to respond immediately to the crisis. and it doesn't matter which side actually broke the ceasefire, the fact that georgian troops were able to converge on the south ossetian capital within hours of the ceasefire being broken, to me proves that that wasn't just by accident. operational plans like that don't get created on the fly.

so my interpretation is that georgia is looking for a lightning quick conquest of s. ossetia before winter. by the time russia actually mobilizes and is able to launch a real attack in the spring, georgia will be so fortified that it would make chechnya look like a walk in the park. it is very difficult for russia logistically to get to georgia with troops numbering in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and only forces of that magnitude would be enough to pacify georgia itself. not to mention, since georgia borders chechnya, they could threaten to destabilize that whole ball of wax again.

but i think saakashvilli (sp?) is playing with fire. let's say this whole thing has been engineered by russia, so what? the ossetians are not ethnically georgians, it only has one sizeable city, the population, resources and size of the region is miniscule, is this worth the price that georgia will have to pay in lives and millions of dollars to try and keep this place with very little guarantee of success? but nationalism can make people do irrational things sometimes.

Ahh see but you're missing the fact that Russia has also threatened military action against Georgia over S. Ossetia before the cease-fire and so they had their military pretty much ready to go. And when the ceasefire was confirmed the day before the "invasion," Georgian military forces were already prepared to invade as it was. So from what has happened, Georgia commenced a very quick strike against S. Ossetia's capital as they probably were preparing to do so before the "ceasefire," and probably hoped to be in position to adequately fend off any serious Russian advance.

And as for the road leading in, I've read that there are two roads, one being a tunnel, and from the pictures and video, it appears the Russians used the road rather than a bottleneck tunnel which could turn into a disaster for the Russians if defended well.

And it does matter who broke the cease-fire. You have the Georgian pres. doing his "best" to accuse Russia of starting the festivities while it is clear to everyone else that they, the Georgians, ignited the fighting by "blitzkrieging" into S. Ossetia's capital. And it is obvious that this is a bit of a land-grab by both countries, but with Georgia starting the fighting, it's hard to say if they'll get any support short of political pressure put on Russia to back off from crushing Georgia and from Georgia from invading S. Ossetia again. In the end, if fighting DOES stop, then we might see a type of Kosovo evolve there if nothing else works as I don't see anyone wanting to ignite some sort of...world war threeish scenario.

[Banquo's Ghost]

It should be noted that Russia officially recognises Georgia's current borders and territorial integrity. The referenda in Abkhazia and South Ossetia that emboldened them to declare unilateral independence have not been recognised internationally. There is no legal framework for Russia's actions.

The high number of ethnic Russians in these regions is a mere fig leaf for imperialism. The Russians have thrown that one around to intimidate the Baltic States and Ukraine for years. Would we understand so readily if they had invaded Estonia over that incident with the war memorials? Are we keen to allow Kurdistan to win, through terrorism, her separation from Turkey and Iraq? Russian citizenship has been distributed like candy to ensure a nominal majority, and "peacekeepers" (oh joy, another euphemism for terrorists makes it into the dictionary) amply supplied with weaponry and resource.

These threats have been long standing, and occasionally emphasised with fly-overs and incursions. Georgia - a democratic nation, western facing - has lost patience. I'm not so sure they have made a mistake - the Russian military may be big, but it is largely demotivated conscripts with poor training and leadership. The last imperial expedition in Chechnya (also facilitated by some fancy provocation and theatrical "terror" attacks) still bleeds Russian youth dry and returns them drunk and violent to the streets of Petersburg and Moscow.

Imperialism should be opposed by the West, and I am pleased to see the reasonably stern responses so far. Russia is a dangerous beast fuelled by nationalism, and wars are the fodder for such creatures. The comparison with the Sudetenland is not much of a stretch.

And one should not forget that Krook has the essence of it - this is mainly about the pipeline, and its threat to Russian hegemony over supply to Europe.

[Rhyfelwyr]

I don't, I love it. Which is why I am supporting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, who want to be free of Georgia.

It seems this isn't just a case of a poor little oppresed people seeking independance. The problem in South Ossetia is riddled with fighting between clans, with no real Russian or Georgian identities. Russia has taken advantage of this to gain influence in the region by buying the support of many Ossetian clans through supplying them with arms, thus fuelling the disorder within Georgian territory.

Having gained the loyalty of clan leaders, Russia then sends in 'peacekeeper' troops to the region, claiming to defend 'Russian' people. So when Georgia attempts to establish control over its own territory, crippled by disorder, Georgia appears as the aggressor, despite the fact that this land is officially recognised by Russia as Georgian territory.

And after the fighting begins it soon becomes clear that Russia is not on a peackeeping mission, as can be seen from the bombings by the Russia jets.

Since historical comparisons with Germany are fun, it sounds like a similar situation to Prussia and Austria over Schleswig and Hostein. Austria (Georgia) wanted to send troops to protect its northern territory, but had to cross Prussian (Russian) occupied lands to do this. This made Austria appear as the aggressor, giving Prussia the chance to mobilise its own troops in 'self defence'. And in the end, the big guy won (what's the modern equivalent of needle guns? - they always remind me of Needlers from Halo). Unless a bigger guy now comes to the rescue...