Re: China world power or not?
china is a superpower, but how long it can remain one without some glorious technological leaps is another question.
it has a large military budget, probably the esecond biggest in the world, but it needs fantastic reduction at the same time as massive investment if it is to become a force capable of projecting power beyond its own contiguous borders.
it is a massive economic power, but it too will suffer massively from resource strangulation necessary to feeds its continued growth, and the more raw materials appreciate the less competitive chinese goods will be.
it has the largest population in the world which gives it massive potential, but as a result of the one child policy it will be lumbered with half a billion pensioners in a generations time in what is still effectively a third world country.
it is an economic powerhouse that will continue to rise faster than the G8 group for at least a generation, but this comes at the cost of a devastated environment the amelioration of which will consume at least half og that growth in the next 100 years.
its diplomatic clout is huge as a result of its economic potential which ha given it the jump over G8 countries on resource agreements with third world countries, but how long before its moral-free expansion is viewed by the third world in much the same way as the belgium congo of years past.
its biggest problem is all of the above, because its ability to keep the lid on an authoritarian state derives solely on its ability to bring its people unrelentingly out of medieval poverty, when that slows, and when enough people reach a stage which might be called bourgeois, the authoritarian chinese governement will face a crisis it won't beat.
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Originally Posted by Furunculu5
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