The Second Great Depression?

[Divinus Arma]

The Dow fell below 10,000 today. On the NYSE, 98 stocks rose and 3,114 dropped. No single investment bank remains in its historical form, all having failed or in the process of converting to commercial status. Fannie, Freddie, AIG, WaMu...

Asian Markets are tumbling.

European banks are failing.


Are we seeing the entrance to a second great depression? Or is this a recession? Or something in between?

[KukriKhan]

Something in-between, I think.

Unless employment drops dramatically. Then yeah, the big one returns.

Right now, everybody from Joe Sixpack to Bank of America is cutting back on spending, which includes spending on investment (stock mkt plunges), until we see what Treasury is gonne do with the $700bn credit card we gave them, and come to either trust them and their decisions, or give up on them, convert to cash, and horde food and ammo.

In my opinion.

[Vladimir]

Good thing we passed that $1 Trillion bailout bill.

(Actually ~850 billion but who's counting?)

[Louis VI the Fat]

I'm still not sure just exactly what it is we're witnessing now.

But it'll be one for the history books, that much seems certain.

[Crazed Rabbit]

No.

Only a few banks are falling; the whole foundation isn't crumbing, as back in the stock market crash.

Funny how that 700bn did nothing.

CR

[Hooahguy]

i think were somewhere in between.....
all we can do is pray....

[TevashSzat]

I don't think so because unlike back then, the politicians will at least try to do something about the economy regardless of whether it is wise or not compared to President Hoover(is that right?) and his general inaction

[Crazed Rabbit]

Roosevelt's actions caused the depression to drag on for much longer than it would have otherwise. Keynesian economics are bull.

Unfortunately, the trend seems to be thinking the government has to try to solve every problem.

CR

[Koga No Goshi]

Roosevelt's actions caused the depression to drag on for much longer than it would have otherwise. Keynesian economics are bull.

Unfortunately, the trend seems to be thinking the government has to try to solve every problem.

CR

Wow. Just wow.

[Don Corleone]

Unemployment is hovering around 6.25% in the U.S., with localized pockets as high as 8%, such as Detroit.

At the height of the Great Depression, unemployment hit something like 28%, so I don't think we're there yet.

However, as others have wisely pointed out, everyone is trying to throttle back on spending. Graduallly raising the savings ratio is a good thing for a society, but rapidly doing it can be very painful. It remains to be seen how the current fiscal crises (plural) will play out. I don't expect unemployment to drop any time soon, not with housing prices still dropping. But whether we're talking current malaise, or even passing the 10% mark remains to be seen.

I know one thing. If you have a lot of cash around and you were thinking you needed to make a large purchase, give it 4 months and you'll be amazed at what you'll be able to get for a given price, so long as you're paying cash.

[TevashSzat]

Roosevelt's actions caused the depression to drag on for much longer than it would have otherwise. Keynesian economics are bull.

Unfortunately, the trend seems to be thinking the government has to try to solve every problem.

CR

So.....had President Hoover been allowed another 2/3 terms we would have been better off?

[Hooahguy]

Roosevelt's actions caused the depression to drag on for much longer than it would have otherwise. Keynesian economics are bull.

Unfortunately, the trend seems to be thinking the government has to try to solve every problem.

CR

amen! small government FTW!

[yesdachi]

If we were where we are today without the trillion dollar infusion I would say we were headed for a lot of trouble (depression) but I think a lot of the stock market woes are people pulling their money and holding it somewhere safer until the market evens out after this trillion gets divided up. There is a lot of money in there and it all didn’t just disappear, people are taking it out and putting it in their mattresses until it is safe again.

We are still in a bad place financially but not as bad as we would be if we were loosing jobs at the same rate the market is falling.

The entire situation is a big mess and it is all thanks to government pressure and greed. I think the bailout is bad and that the gov should butt out and the market should be allowed to correct itself. There are thousands of enterprising people out there ready and willing to step in and pick up the shattered pieces of the big companies and make something good from it, they should be allowed to. But by throwing money at it the gov is encouraging a broken system with the same broken players.

[Koga No Goshi]

amen! small government FTW!

If this had been the predominant philosophy at the time of the New deal, we'd still be there. "Yes, President Rockefeller?"

[yesdachi]

I know one thing. If you have a lot of cash around and you were thinking you needed to make a large purchase, give it 4 months and you'll be amazed at what you'll be able to get for a given price, so long as you're paying cash.

I couldn’t agree more. People around here are able to get screaming deals on houses around here, course if you are the seller you may not be real happy but for someone with cash in their hand now (or in 4 months) is a good time to buy.

Personally I think I am upside down on my house but I am not planning on selling anytime soon.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

We're not going to hit another Great Depression unless something gets much, much worse.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Keynes was better than the White plan...

[AlexanderSextus]

amen! small government FTW!

This is one of those rare times that i agree with hooah...




oh, and Keynesian economics FTL, Austrian School of Economics FTW!!!!!

[JAG]

Roosevelt's actions caused the depression to drag on for much longer than it would have otherwise. Keynesian economics are bull.

Unfortunately, the trend seems to be thinking the government has to try to solve every problem.

CR

haahahahahahahah What a pile of rubbish you just came out with, ahahahah. The fact you really believe this crap amazes me everytime I see you type such a silly post. Amazing.

Anyway, yeah SMALL GOVT FOR THE WIN!! Its not like it has got us into this situation or anything!?!?!!!! NOES!!

[ICantSpellDawg]

This is the natural re-distribution of wealth from globalization. The disappearing 2.5 trillion was just a few of the many that we overvalued our societies by on an increasingly more level playing field. It was never going to be pretty, but in the end the developing world will be better off from it. We will be worse off and regressing. Parity could have been us pulling them up or them pulling us down. It seems as though the latter is the road we have taken through our economic policies. Everyone outside of industrialized financial nations just became a little richer in relation to the rest of us.

We've lied to ourselves and overestimated our national net worth.

Oh well, back to the drawing boards.

[Divinus Arma]

haahahahahahahah What a pile of rubbish you just came out with, ahahahah. The fact you really believe this crap amazes me everytime I see you type such a silly post. Amazing.

Anyway, yeah SMALL GOVT FOR THE WIN!! Its not like it has got us into this situation or anything!?!?!!!! NOES!!

That's right. Because a centralized economy has been very successful in communist countr... oh. damn. They're capitalizing, huh? Uh Oh. Never mind.

[CountArach]

In-between. This is definitely worse than things we have seen in quite a while, but ultimately it is no great depression.

But it could be turned into one without too much trouble.

[JAG]

That's right. Because a centralized economy has been very successful in communist countr... oh. damn. They're capitalizing, huh? Uh Oh. Never mind.

Im not a communist nor have ever been one and have never truly argued for a complete command economy. There is a difference between state action and regulation and a 'small' state. Gah forget it, I am just a commie in disguise and should be ignored!!!! Dam those social democrats knowing what is best and all. :(

[Koga No Goshi]

People who think it started and ended with the housing market, or even with deregulation for that matter, are missing the larger picture. I believe Tuff somewhat indirectly hit upon it here. Why was the housing market so inflated? Why was home equity such a "big business" and why were so many people both trying to tie their money up in properties, and also get money out of the equity of properties? Because, IMHO, housing was the last big bulwark holding up our economy and backing up the value of people's worth and credit. And by extension of doing that, it held up the whole economy in general because people could take money out of their houses to buy all sorts of things they didn't have the money for and it was basically "free money" because the jumps in housing values would cover up whatever they took out of their house after awhile. And banks doing refinances, subprime mortgage loans, and everything in between made big money off the commissions and such. So it was happy times all around... for awhile.

The big picture is, we don't produce. We shove debt and paper around. We have magical values assigned to things with no domestic production value or promise of future goods to back it up or stand as collateral. Our economy is service based. What that means is people pushing around stock portfolios, lines of credit, mortgages, equity loans, credit cards and debt to make the economy keep moving just as if we were a producing, surplus-exporting boomer. So the housing market was going to crash, sooner or later. Yes plenty of hands helped it inflate and pop along the way because it was a way to make money. But the fact that people were cannibalizing the roof over their head to maintain economic growth and accumulation of equity and security against retirement (ultimately) was even a point of question because of how badly we have undergutted our economy.

My forty-nine and a half cents.

Oh and, if I am correct, it's not going to bounce back. There is nothing to make it bounce back, unless it's just in the form of a flush of foreign investment coming in and us slinking more and more into debt. Short of completely revamping our economy with new industries and probably a significantly large government hand in helping to incentivize and push such a change along, we are on a downhill incline.

[ICantSpellDawg]

People who think it started and ended with the housing market, or even with deregulation for that matter, are missing the larger picture. I believe Tuff somewhat indirectly hit upon it here. Why was the housing market so inflated? Why was home equity such a "big business" and why were so many people both trying to tie their money up in properties, and also get money out of the equity of properties? Because, IMHO, housing was the last big bulwark holding up our economy and backing up the value of people's worth and credit. And by extension of doing that, it held up the whole economy in general because people could take money out of their houses to buy all sorts of things they didn't have the money for and it was basically "free money" because the jumps in housing values would cover up whatever they took out of their house after awhile. And banks doing refinances, subprime mortgage loans, and everything in between made big money off the commissions and such. So it was happy times all around... for awhile.

The big picture is, we don't produce. We shove debt and paper around. We have magical values assigned to things with no domestic production value or promise of future goods to back it up or stand as collateral. Our economy is service based. What that means is people pushing around stock portfolios, lines of credit, mortgages, equity loans, credit cards and debt to make the economy keep moving just as if we were a producing, surplus-exporting boomer. So the housing market was going to crash, sooner or later. Yes plenty of hands helped it inflate and pop along the way because it was a way to make money. But the fact that people were cannibalizing the roof over their head to maintain economic growth and accumulation of equity and security against retirement (ultimately) was even a point of question because of how badly we have undergutted our economy.

My forty-nine and a half cents.

Oh and, if I am correct, it's not going to bounce back. There is nothing to make it bounce back, unless it's just in the form of a flush of foreign investment coming in and us slinking more and more into debt. Short of completely revamping our economy with new industries and probably a significantly large government hand in helping to incentivize and push such a change along, we are on a downhill incline.

I agree. Basically our entire economy is smoke and mirrors.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Im not a communist nor have ever been one and have never truly argued for a complete command economy. There is a difference between state action and regulation and a 'small' state. Gah forget it, I am just a commie in disguise and should be ignored!!!! Dam those social democrats knowing what is best and all. :(

I'm pretty sure that you leaned pretty heavily towards communism when you used to post more often. I cant quite recall, but I was almost positive that you were a Communist, and I don't charge people with that too often.

I think that we've all seen you swing somewhat to the right over the years. I guess there wasn't much room on the left for you to grow, eh?

[Koga No Goshi]

I agree. Basically our entire economy is smoke and mirrors.

Sad times when friends and enemies say the same thing, and it's bad news. ;)

[JAG]

I'm pretty sure that you leaned pretty heavily towards communism when you used to post more often. I cant quite recall, but I was almost positive that you were a Communist, and I don't charge people with that too often.

I think that we've all seen you swing somewhat to the right over the years. I guess there wasn't much room on the left for you to grow, eh?

Not really, I used to describe myself as a socialist and to a great degree I still am, but describing yourself as that often doesn't really represent your views properly. I was never a communist who believed in command economies, people here simply give you those opinions if you are not hand in hand with the free market. I am a liberal - real liberal - social democrat, in the true sense of the word.

Been reading Noami Klein's latest classic, 'The Shock Doctrine' and she has to a large extent predicted this economic crisis and the 'shock' which is going on at the moment to further push through the extreme capitalist agenda - people should read the book, it is englightening.

Public institutions > Private. Private companies debt > Public.

[Productivity]

The big picture is, we don't produce.

This is a highly pesimistic view of the American economy - certainly numerous industries in the US have been hammered over the last two decades and are hardly viable except as a niche (take car manufacturing for example), but there are plenty of other industries which the US is perfectly competitive in. Sure there has been a significant issue with the balance of exports to imports recently, but that doesn't mean the economy is fundamentally broken - it just needs restructuring. Produce what you're good at producing, not what the rest of the world is good at producing. Stop trying to build cars when it's been obvious for the last two decades that East Asia builds better mass produced cars and Europe has a much better grip on luxury cars. Decades of wastage and money has been kept trying to keep Detroit going only to finally see it collapse into a pile of non-viable industry and service industries.

[Hooahguy]

for the first time that i can remember, i agree with you on something...
but ya, our economy is in chambles.
the only thing that can bring us our is a giant war, like WWII brought us outof the great depression*looks towards iran.....* (jk)