Well the election is finally upon us… errr… you… and as such this will be the final election day/night thread that Kukri has asked me to open. I’ve been following the election very closely, especially the tactics and polling, so I feel I can offer some analysis of what to expect on election night. There is also a lot of polling data collected below for those who want it (I only included the most important states). I’ve put up the polling not just for the President but also for the most competitive Senate races and the likely house results.
The first map I thought I would create is where I believe the race currently stands – both based on polling and a gut feeling. Yellow is a toss-up. After that I shall run through the various likely scenarios based on this map.
Where I believe the race is.
Simply put, the simplest way for Obama to win this election is to win the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. This puts him at 273 Electoral Votes, needing 270 for victory.
Obama’s simplest route to victory – Kerry + IA + CO + NM
However, Obama is not just winning in those three states (Though he is winning all of them); he is also winning in many other states according to the polls. As such I thought it would be worth putting together a ‘best case’ scenario for the Obama campaign that shows what a map where Obama wins in an absolute landslide would be.
An Obama landslide – not likely but still imaginable.
Of course there are many, many middle ground options – such as losing Colorado while winning Virginia. Obama has a solid lead in many EVs and as such there are a lot of routes open to victory for him.
So what does McCain have to do to win? You can see a basic idea here and a more complex one here. In essence the two maps below show the likely results:
McCain win 1
McCain win 2
Note that in map 1 Nevada is absolutely crucial because if it flipped to Obama there would be an electoral college tie and as such Obama would win the Presidency after a vote from the Democratic House. Map 2 seems slightly more plausible because it relies on fewer things going McCain’s way – he can still afford to lose a few EVs along the way and he only has to flip 1 states while holding onto the Toss-ups (Examples might include losing Missouri or Indiana, which puts McCain on 270, just enough to scrape in).
Just a small note on the Popular Vote – I think it will be hard to determine what will happen with this. While I believe Obama will win it by 4 or 5 points it may be hard to tell what will happen on the west coast. An early call of the race (Which seems likely if Obama does in fact win both Virginia and North Carolina) may dampen turnout in California, which will probably knock off a lot of Obama’s votes.
So here is the Presidential polling data from numerous sources for several states (As of when I posted this – they will probably change on the morning of the election – I’ll do a polling update then). Intrade is an election betting site – and it has been fairly stable and has remained with the other polling sources fairly closely most of the year. If anyone wants me to look at any other state and give my view on what will happen, feel free and I’ll get right onto it. The same goes for the Senate races.
The four Senate races down the bottom are the most competitive this year and all will be interesting on election night (especially the three-way race in Minnesota where the Libertarian is polling in double digits). If the winner of the Georgia race is below 50%, which is entirely possible given that the Libertarian is in mid single digits, then it goes to a run-off later on – that race would attract millions of dollars on both sides. The Democrats are almost guaranteed to win 55 seats, with 2 Democratic-leaning Independents as well. Winning any 3 of the below will give the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority.
The House numbers are just something I tagged onto the end for anyone who is interested. Cook Political Report and CQ Politics don’t just use polling numbers; they also look at how well a politician matches their district politically. I really don’t know enough about most of the House stuff to be able to comment on it with any authority.
Important States
Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Popular Vote
Key Senate Races
Alaska
Incumbent – Stevens (R)
Challenger – Begich (D)
Note that Stevens has recently been indicted and as such he is unlikely to hold onto his seat.
Georgia
Incumbent – Chambliss (R)
Challenger – Martin (D)
Kentucky
Incumbent – McConnell (R)
Challenger – Lunsford (D)
Minnesota
Incumbent – Coleman (R)
Challenger – Franken (D), Barkley (L)
House Results
Currently 236 D – 198 R
Pollster.com
Democrats – 245
Republicans – 166
Toss Up – 24
Real Clear Politics
Democrats – 236
Republicans – 173
Toss Up – 26
CQ Politics – Very reputable
Democrats – 241
Republicans – 168
Toss Up – 26
Cook Political Report – Also reputable
Democrats – 238
Republicans – 161
Toss Up – 35
The Final US Election Thread
Originally Posted by Leon Blum - For All Mankind
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