The Final US Election Thread

[JAG]

Game over man. No way for Mc Cain to win now, I just can't see it, nor should any other sane person.

WOOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TinCow]

IIRC, the odds of McCain winning without Pennsylvania are essentially nil, though I hate these calls of a state when they're at 0% returns. That just means they're based on exit polling, and we all know how reliable that is.

[CountArach]

Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for Obama. Big blow for McCain.

Who called that? CNN refuses to until they get some votes in.

As for McCain's chances without PA, read the first post

[LittleGrizzly]

Who called that?

The BBC for one... and MSNBC for another..

[TinCow]

MSNBC called them both at 0%, along with a slew other other ones at the same time.

[CountArach]

Thanks.

Obama looking good in Florida now - winning some of the swing counties and overperforming Kerry everywhere.

[JAG]

MSNBC wouldn't call it unless it is safe. And to be fair not as if the polls were not showing Obama up big...

[LittleGrizzly]

I figured they were alot more reliable because they really don't want to repeat 2000....

Has anyone else noticed its mainly non americans here getting excited... the americans busy voting ?

[CountArach]

I figured they were alot more reliable because they really don't want to repeat 2000....

I think that is what CNN thinks as well.

McCain needs to hope for route 1 now:
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...McCainwin1.jpg

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

I think that is what CNN thinks as well.

They certainly haven't been calling any controversial things. What has been called so far is essentially what has been predicted all along.

[LittleGrizzly]

is route 1 basically holding all bush's states ?

Sounds good for obama in florida.... ahead so far...

[Banquo's Ghost]

Senator Dole appears to have lost her seat.

[CountArach]

is route 1 basically holding all bush's states ?

Sounds good for obama in florida.... ahead so far...

He can only afford to lose New Mexico and Iowa from here. Other than that it has to be all the Bush states.

[LittleGrizzly]

I think i understand the presidential race is going... but what about the houses... how close is the filibuster proof majority looking ?

What gains have been made in the houses so far ? and what is predicted ?

[Koga No Goshi]

I figured they were alot more reliable because they really don't want to repeat 2000....

Has anyone else noticed its mainly non americans here getting excited... the americans busy voting ?

It's because, in my opinion, the Americans are a nervous wreck. Trust me, as a Democrat, we've been down the "oh there's no way the public could possibly vote that way again/ there's no way the election leads could suddenly flip on us again" road. We're being superstitiously cautious.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Dang it. I can't go to bed without knowing what's going to happen.

I think that is what CNN thinks as well.

McCain needs to hope for route 1 now:
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...McCainwin1.jpg

No route 1 either. MSNBC: Exit polls in Indiana and Virginia positive for Obama.

Edit: which seems unlikely. CNN has McCain leading.
Edit2: And Obama leading in Texas.

[JAG]

I think i understand the presidential race is going... but what about the houses... how close is the filibuster proof majority looking ?

What gains have been made in the houses so far ? and what is predicted ?

The Dems have picked up a couple in the Senate but they lost one of their races they were after in Maine, so I dunno if they are gonna get 60, but they will have a nice, healthy margin there.

[LittleGrizzly]

Im probably alot more realistic this time, i just didn't see how bush could win in 2004, but it happened, this time im more cautiously optimistic... though the optimism is rising quickly...

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

No route 1 either. MSNBC: Exit polls in Indiana and Virginia positive for Obama.

Current CNN tallies disagree. They're showing fairly large leads for McCain based on tabulated vote so far.

[Koga No Goshi]

The Dems have picked up a couple in the Senate but they lost one of their races they were after in Maine, so I dunno if they are gonna get 60, but they will have a nice, healthy margin there.

The "60 DEM SENATORS!" thing that has been screeched about was always a fantasy scenario. Five-thirty-eight calculated it as a 50% chance of 58, a 45% chance of 59, but only a 17% chance of taking 60.

Im probably alot more realistic this time, i just didn't see how bush could win in 2004, but it happened, this time im more cautiously optimistic... though the optimism is rising quickly...

Yup. 2004 was total floored shock for a lot of us.

[PBI]

Dang it. I can't go to bed without knowing what's going to happen.

I'm in the same boat. I always forget just how compelling election night is.

Ah well, my boss is a lefty, if Obama wins he'll be too happy to care if I'm late to work.

Oh, Grizzly, I think the 11 points for McCain was Tennessee.

[CountArach]

Current CNN tallies disagree. They're showing fairly large leads for McCain based on tabulated vote so far.

Virginia is starting to worry me, but the North-East of the State (Washington DC suburbs) and the South-East (Large African American population) have barely started to be counted yet, so there is still a lot of chance.

The North-West of Indiana (Near Chicago) is tightening Indiana.

As for 60 Senators, I think it will end up 58 including both Independents, but after 2010 there is a very good chance of the Democrats having the 60.

[Koga No Goshi]

Yeah it's really a mistake to assume that with 1 or 5% in you have a written in stone representation of the rest of the state's tally. In a lot of states nearly all of the blue are just around a couple of the larger cities, on a political map-- where frequently the lines are longer and counting is slower.

[Incongruous]

Wow, CNN is being, REALLY, REALLY conservative, where are the screaming heads?

But they have so far predicted a massive lead for Obama in electorals.

[LittleGrizzly]

Oh, Grizzly, I think the 11 points for McCain was Tennessee.

yes that was the one!

I'm in the same boat. I always forget just how compelling election night is.

I think my bedtime is going to keep getting pushed back... originally its was 1am now its been pushed back to 2am and im seriously considering an extension.... hell why not.. how often does such a big event like this happen ? (and seems to be going the way i want!)

[Louis VI the Fat]

.. how often does such a big event like this happen ?

About every four years, sheesh, read up will ya.

j/k.

Yeah it's really a mistake to assume that with 1 or 5% in you have a written in stone representation of the rest of the state's tally. In a lot of states nearly all of the blue are just around a couple of the larger cities, on a political map-- where frequently the lines are longer and counting is slower.

Obama still leading in Texas on CNN.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Obama still leading in Texas on CNN.

Not anymore.

[LittleGrizzly]

About every four years, sheesh, read up will ya.

by my rough calculations i will only witness 10-14 more of these...

Georgia and another called for mccain

103 - 49

Im hearing Palin went down badly in the suburbs, clinton voters went for obama 89 - 11, the woman vote didn't pick up for McCain...

Obama still leading in Texas on CNN.

Im calling Texas for Obama!!

Not anymore.

Gah! nice well it lasted...

[Ronin]

CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

CNN has popular vote barely for McCain right now.

CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama

McCain has to win Pennsylvania or Florida. If he doesn't, he's probably finished.