Iraq- the next steps

[Hooahguy]

now that BHO is the new president, i wonder whats going to happen with iraq.
obama stated that he plans an 18 month withdrawal plan or s/t (as i am told my by liberal friends).
my concern with this, as any timetable, is that the terrorist also have a timetable. all they have to do is hide in their holes for the next 18 months, then once were out of there, they come in like a whirlwind, destroying the new government there.
im in favor of withdrawing, but i dont think it should be publicized until were actually out of there, so the terrorists never really know when were going to be out.
idk if thats realistic, but thats just what i think.

[Kagemusha]

What would you exxpect anyway? Once US forces will leave Iraq, the upcoming civil war is just a matter of time. Why prolong the inevitable?

[Fragony]

Elections are over, which withdrawal Not possible Obama isn't nuts, some of his supporters may be but if you really expect a withdrawal now that things are finally shaping up, leaving will be harder to organize then staying anyways, imagine the chaos it would mean a massacre the minute you left.

[spmetla]

What's next for Iraq is really a matter of what can be hammered out in the form a status of forces agreement between the two countries. Remember, the UN mandate making the US presence legal is due to expire soon and the US needs an agreement that is acceptable to both parties. Though there is a draft of an agreement in place a lot of Iraqis are asking/demanding changes to it before it becomes finalized.

What the agreement ends up being will largely bind Obama to the agreement unless he starts negotiating with the Iraqis to amend once he is inaugurated.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

What's next for Iraq is really a matter of what can be hammered out in the form a status of forces agreement between the two countries. Remember, the UN mandate making the US presence legal is due to expire soon and the US needs an agreement that is acceptable to both parties. Though there is a draft of an agreement in place a lot of Iraqis are asking/demanding changes to it before it becomes finalized.

What the agreement ends up being will largely bind Obama to the agreement unless he starts negotiating with the Iraqis to amend once he is inaugurated.

That's how its currently framed. However, I believe you will find that Iraq asks the UN to extend things as is until June of 2009 so that they can negotiate with the new administration. Gives them another few months at current deployment levels but lets them negotiate for a better deal with someone who has a vested interest in minimizing U.S. MILITARY involvement in Iraq. Ch-ching.

[Tribesman]

Seamus , if it does indeed play out that way (and lets face it the existing SOFA draft has very little chance of getting through the cabinet approval stage let alone parliamentary approval) what chance do you think there is of getting the UN mandate extended as it currently stands ?
Especially since both Britain and America have been doing some pretty serious breaches of the existing terms of the mandate and Putin is on a power rush .

[Spino]

Elections are over, which withdrawal Not possible Obama isn't nuts, some of his supporters may be but if you really expect a withdrawal now that things are finally shaping up, leaving will be harder to organize then staying anyways, imagine the chaos it would mean a massacre the minute you left.

I think you forgot about a little country called Vietnam. It took 60 thousand American dead, the Tet Offensive (which despite the initial shock, wiped out the Viet Cong & decimated the NVA), an unpopular draft and a bloated war budget for the country to finally scream enough and insist on a timely withdrawal from Vietnam. In order to salvage something out of the war Nixon pulled out the bulk of America's troops but stepped up the aerial campaign to unprecedented heights, only to have the public continue to scream for a withdrawal. When he did so his public opinion rating soared.

Fast forward to 2008 and we have the mob and politicians still screaming for us to pull out of Iraq even though we've suffered a fraction of the losses and actually have the situation under control. It is obvious modern America does not have the same patience and constitution it did 40 years ago. Whether Obama is crazy enough to pull the trigger is not the question. When confronted with an economic recession and a laundry list of big government items on their to-do list the Democrats will need to make some tough choices. So a timely withdrawal from Iraq is still very likely. As to the aftermath... well hey, we threw Vietnam & millions of refugees to the dogs, why not Iraqis?

But in the end is it really up to Obama? Eventually the Democratic controlled Congress is going go come to terms with the fact that in order to pay for these expensive social programs (or that additional mortgage bailout bill aimed at borrowers) they're going to be forced to print more money or take money currently assigned to other endeavors (i.e. Defense spending & Iraq). Congressman Barney Frank has been unabashedly open about his desire to raise taxes and cut defense spending by 25%... You can bet your lowlands buttocks that a timely, measured pullout from Iraq will help free up a ton of money sooner than later. I'm sure House & Senate Democrats will forcefully present their case to Obama and given that he's never voted against his party he'll tow the line and rubber stamp it... albeit with a modest, token protest to keep his 'hope & change' credibility intact.

[Koga No Goshi]

Fast forward to 2008 and we have the mob and politicians still screaming for us to pull out of Iraq even though we've suffered a fraction of the losses and actually have the situation under control. It is obvious modern America does not have the same patience and constitution it did 40 years ago.

A waste is a waste.

[Tribesman]

Bloody hell spino ....."actually have the situation under control" ????????

Last month half of the remaining Christians in Mosul were driven out of their homes by the pershmerga , in Kirkuk Turkomen militia killed 25 and injured 200 Kurds who were trying to burn down their politicians office , the Iraqi army is in an armed standoff with the pershmerga who won't let them deploy against the PKK who are routinely getting bombed and shelled in Iraq by a country that is your ally (not of course forgetting the villages in Iraq held by the JDEM which regularly get shelled by Iran which isn't your ally)
Under control my arse , 40% of the population still don't have clean drinking water and cholera outbreaks reached a new peak in September .

[rory_20_uk]

What is so valuable about Iraqi lives? America has not been concerned about "collateral damage" recently. I can understand that preserving the oil is important, but since that is in the south and the north there is a large part of Iraq that can be left to it.

And let's not pretend that America or the West in general is particularly concerned about the sanctity of human life. Africa sheds lives every day through several civil wars, uprisings, border disputes and the tried and tested starvation, malnutrition and disease.


So, protect the assets we need, leave the rest of Iraq to it.