Iraq- the next steps

[CrossLOPER]

Surprise.... Surprise... Obama is considering advice from his future generals who advise him against a 16 month pullout due to it being physically impossible:

I fully expected him to contact Ronald McDonald when the subject of troop withdrawals comes up, not generals. srsly

[Ice]

I fully expected him to contact Ronald McDonald when the subject of troop withdrawals comes up, not generals. srsly

I was thinking Big Bird and Cookie Monster.

[CrossLOPER]

I was thinking Big Bird and Cookie Monster.

Big Bird should be in charge of health and human services. The Cookie Monster should be in charge of agriculture.

[Tribesman]

Surprise.... Surprise...

Wow kush A is not possible because Bis not possible B is not really possible because Cmay not be possible C might be hard but D would be even harder
If

D

doesn't work then talking about Ais errrrr..........what exactly ??????
Or to look at it another way , your article says noone really said nothing to anybody about anything...but....errrrr....lets fill the page with typeface

[AlexanderSextus]

“we fight them over there so they don’t come here” theory

Honestly, I think that if any sizeable group of terrorists tried to launch a ground op here in the States we would kick there asses from the Tri-state all the way to Los Angeles.

I'm not exactly sure but my gut tells me we have more National Guard here than we have deployed right now, and 70 million civilians own guns here.

For example, when Admiral Yamamoto was asked in 1941 why he didn't attack california after Pearl Harbor, he said

"I lived in the US. Most people own guns."

they wouldnt stand a chance, because we know the terrain here WAY better than they would. For example, (for the people who live here) when you were a kid, didnt you know tons of shortcuts to get places faster, you know, little cut-throughs and alley ways and such? Picture somebody during a ground invasion cutting through one of those with his dads 30-06 rifle and sniping a bunch of tangos, withdrawing through the alley, cutting through a backyard, climbing a tree, and sniping more. Now imagine that same thing with 500+ civilians, supported by Natl. Guard.

I honestly believe that on our own turf nobody in the world is better than us @ guerrila warfare.
(this is also one of the reasons we are having trouble in Iraq, because they know their terrain better than we do.)

[Hax]

I think you don't really understand how people work? Do you honestly believe that if Al-Qaeda would launch an invasion (which they would never do) that everyone would team up to repel the invaders?

No. If you eliminate the leaders, the followers would merely fight inbetween themselves.

I honestly believe that on our own turf nobody in the world is better than us @ guerrila warfare.

Right, is that the turf that was stolen from the Indians? Because, IIRC, they weren't as successfull at guerilla warfare.

[Kagemusha]

Like in my first post i said it shortly. I cant see anything US and its alliance can do to leave Iraq as a healthy and united country, what ever the date of withdraval might be. There are three groups of people hostile to one another inside the country and also neighbouring countries are hostile towards one of them.
We have the Shiia majority, which is supported and also partially controlled by Iranian interests, while there is also a drift between the different Shiia groups, while others embrace the Iranian support and influence others reject it. Shiias are hostile more or less both to Sunni´s and to lesser extent the Kurds.

Next we have the Sunnis, who are the ex leaders of Iraq, supported by Mainly Syria and lesser extent by other Sunni Arab states. Sunnis and Shiias are extremely hostile between each other.

Last we have the Kurds, who have had their own state more or less since the first gulf war, controlled by few major groups in Northern Iraq. There are larger or smaller Kurdish minorities also in all neighbouring countries mainly in Turkey, but also in Iran and Syria. While Syria and Iran has some interest in supporting the Kurds in order to lessen the Turkish influence in Northern Iraq, both countries have their problems with Kurdish minorities, so in the end the Kurds are facing a hostile neighbour in North in form of Turkey, while they are not getting much support from anywhere.

In that kind of situation, the civil war seems inevitable incase the alliance leaves Iraq and escalating of the war, by neighbouring countries either supporting their interests or attacking groups inside Iraq in order to stabilize their own internal situation is more then likely. The simple truth is that Iraq simply cant exist as democratic country. It was kept together by force by a dictoriship of Saddam Husseins regime, but there simple is no true will for any of the groups controlling various parts of Iraq to live peacefully together under a single regime, since their interests differ so much.

So likely if and when US lead alliance will leave Iraq. Turkey will invade Northern Iraq, which will most likely lead into a prolonged guerrilla war in Northern Iraq and Southern Turkey. And either the Sunnis or Shiias will take control of the rest of Iraq by force, depending which group will get more support from the neighbouring countries. In any case the chaos is just behind the door.

[Strike For The South]

I think you don't really understand how people work? Do you honestly believe that if Al-Qaeda would launch an invasion (which they would never do) that everyone would team up to repel the invaders?

No. If you eliminate the leaders, the followers would merely fight inbetween themselves.



Right, is that the turf that was stolen from the Indians? Because, IIRC, they weren't as successfull at guerilla warfare.

An understanding of history would do a world of good for you.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

IRight, is that the turf that was stolen from the Indians? Because, IIRC, they weren't as successfull at guerilla warfare.

Actually, many of the tribes were quite good at guerilla warfare. All the classic advantages of intimate knowledge of local terrain, no need for formal lines of supply, using the enemies weapons against them wherever possible...

One of the truths about guerilla warfare is that, for the guerillas, it is often a losing proposition unless the bigger/better equipped force gets discouraged and quits OR they develop the capability to meet the bigger/better force in the "open" field (through alliances, outside support, and/or internally developed resources).

Terrorism, though sharing many of the typical characteristics of asymetrical warfare, is somewhat different as the terrorist force often has a fundamentally different goal having nothing to do with control.

[AlexanderSextus]

I think you don't really understand how people work? Do you honestly believe that if Al-Qaeda would launch an invasion (which they would never do) that everyone would team up to repel the invaders?

Seems likely. Look how it was immediately after 9/11. People didn't bicker over little differences any more. We unified for a time. Sure, it crumbled, but I think if it was larger scale, like an invasion, we would stay unified.

Right, is that the turf that was stolen from the Indians? Because, IIRC, they weren't as successfull at guerilla warfare.

They would be on our side now. I never said Native americans couldnt do Guerilla warfare. They're the best, and we learned it from them, which makes us just as good.

[KarlXII]

For example, when Admiral Yamamoto was asked in 1941 why he didn't attack california after Pearl Harbor, he said

"I lived in the US. Most people own guns."

I don't know if he said that, however, I do know he said this:

"Behind every blade of grass would be a(n American with a?) rifle"

[Jolt]

I don't know if he said that, however, I do know he said this:

"Behind every blade of grass would be a(n American with a?) rifle"

That's actually a major malus for the USA if an opposing country tries to use subversion as a method of inner fighting. Since the majority of the people have guns, in a period of war, if the USA is losing and there is unrest and dissent, it is much easier to create armed militias using subversive tactics then in any other country in the entire world.

[Ice]

Wow kush A is not possible because Bis not possible B is not really possible because Cmay not be possible C might be hard but D would be even harder
If doesn't work then talking about Ais errrrr..........what exactly ??????
Or to look at it another way , your article says noone really said nothing to anybody about anything...but....errrrr....lets fill the page with typeface

Nope.

[Tribesman]

Wow Kush thats a frigging brainstorming assesment , any chance of any possible spiderweb thin threads that you can get enmeshed in that would support your "nope" ?
Not bloody likely
I am getting quite sick of numbnuts talking about the situation when they clearlly havn't got the faintest grasp whatsoever in the slightest by a long stretch of the magination on a wet wednesady what the situation is ...and Kush is just the latest in a long line of people who are clueless (Apparently I cannot call clueless people muppets anymore, not of course suggesting that Kush as he is cluelress could be described as a muppet as that would certainly not do and I of course would not say it)

Can any of the usual vocal supporters of the idiocy in Iraq offer any comment apart from "less American troops are getting killed because we are paying $300 a month per terrorist so that the terrorists don't shoot at us quite so much anymore for a short while" ???
Though for the fun of it I colud ask again of Xiahou what the status of the current unadopted draft of the disputed proposed status of forces agreement is ?...but that might be flogging a dead horse and I would most likely get the reply that the unwritten final legislation has indeed been passed long ago and is an example of how Iraq is a wonderful project

[Ice]

Wow Kush thats a frigging brainstorming assesment , any chance of any possible spiderweb thin threads that you can get enmeshed in that would support your "nope" ?
Not bloody likely
I am getting quite sick of numbnuts talking about the situation when they clearlly havn't got the faintest grasp whatsoever in the slightest by a long stretch of the magination on a wet wednesady what the situation is ...and Kush is just the latest in a long line of people who are clueless (Apparently I cannot call clueless people muppets anymore, not of course suggesting that Kush as he is cluelress could be described as a muppet as that would certainly not do and I of course would not say it)

Can any of the usual vocal supporters of the idiocy in Iraq offer any comment apart from "less American troops are getting killed because we are paying $300 a month per terrorist so that the terrorists don't shoot at us quite so much anymore for a short while" ???
Though for the fun of it I colud ask again of Xiahou what the status of the current unadopted draft of the disputed proposed status of forces agreement is ?...but that might be flogging a dead horse and I would most likely get the reply that the unwritten final legislation has indeed been passed long ago and is an example of how Iraq is a wonderful project

You just don't get it, do you?

[JR-]

Though for the fun of it I colud ask again of Xiahou what the status of the current unadopted draft of the disputed proposed status of forces agreement is ?...but that might be flogging a dead horse and I would most likely get the reply that the unwritten final legislation has indeed been passed long ago and is an example of how Iraq is a wonderful project

i may be wrong, but i believe it's well on its way to being agreed as per the news this morning.......

[rvg]

Hmm.... Iraq.

Things can be made right in Iraq wihout the U.S. presence, but that would involve killing a whole bunch of people. As much as Sunnis and Shias hate each other's guts, they hate the Kurds even more. To make things even more complicated, Sunni Kurds hate Shia Kurds, and everyone hates the Yezidi Kurds. And of course there are Christians caught in the mess powerless to do anything. When we leave, we should take the Christians with us. Kurdistan can be pressured not to secede, and it will be wise for them to maintain the status quo. I'd hate to see another war break out there, considering that it's actually a functioning democracy, and I'd hate to see that go up in flames. As for the rest of Iraq, it'll depend on whether Kurdistan secedes. In the Kurds stay put, and our boys are out of Iraq, most of the local crazies would lose whatever popular support they might have now. As long as Shia government doesn't crush too many toes and treads lightly when it comes to Sunnis, Iraq should see some improvement in security.
Now, if Kurds decide to break free, it'll definitely unite the Arabs. Arab military who will be *eagerly* aided by the Turks (and porbably by Iran as well) will move in, crush the Kurds on two (possibly three) fronts, and revert Iraq back to a unitary state. has too many enemies to make it out alive as a free state.

[Fragony]

Now, if Kurds decide to break free, it'll definitely unite the Arabs.

Nah, they sunni/shi'ah conflict is a religious one, kurds are a tribal thingie.