Iraq- the next steps

[Kagemusha]

Like in my first post i said it shortly. I cant see anything US and its alliance can do to leave Iraq as a healthy and united country, what ever the date of withdraval might be. There are three groups of people hostile to one another inside the country and also neighbouring countries are hostile towards one of them.
We have the Shiia majority, which is supported and also partially controlled by Iranian interests, while there is also a drift between the different Shiia groups, while others embrace the Iranian support and influence others reject it. Shiias are hostile more or less both to Sunni´s and to lesser extent the Kurds.

Next we have the Sunnis, who are the ex leaders of Iraq, supported by Mainly Syria and lesser extent by other Sunni Arab states. Sunnis and Shiias are extremely hostile between each other.

Last we have the Kurds, who have had their own state more or less since the first gulf war, controlled by few major groups in Northern Iraq. There are larger or smaller Kurdish minorities also in all neighbouring countries mainly in Turkey, but also in Iran and Syria. While Syria and Iran has some interest in supporting the Kurds in order to lessen the Turkish influence in Northern Iraq, both countries have their problems with Kurdish minorities, so in the end the Kurds are facing a hostile neighbour in North in form of Turkey, while they are not getting much support from anywhere.

In that kind of situation, the civil war seems inevitable incase the alliance leaves Iraq and escalating of the war, by neighbouring countries either supporting their interests or attacking groups inside Iraq in order to stabilize their own internal situation is more then likely. The simple truth is that Iraq simply cant exist as democratic country. It was kept together by force by a dictoriship of Saddam Husseins regime, but there simple is no true will for any of the groups controlling various parts of Iraq to live peacefully together under a single regime, since their interests differ so much.

So likely if and when US lead alliance will leave Iraq. Turkey will invade Northern Iraq, which will most likely lead into a prolonged guerrilla war in Northern Iraq and Southern Turkey. And either the Sunnis or Shiias will take control of the rest of Iraq by force, depending which group will get more support from the neighbouring countries. In any case the chaos is just behind the door.