Poll: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 72

Thread: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

  1. #1
    L'Etranger Senior Member Banquo's Ghost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hunting the Snark, a long way from Tipperary...
    Posts
    5,604

    Lightbulb Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    After a short period of prominence, sterling has recently suffered one of its biggest falls in value and foreign investors are bailing out en masse. The United Kingdom's finances are in a parlous state, and little sign that, short of continued massive borrowing (requiring the gullible to buy ever more worthless government bonds) either HM Government or her Opposition know what to do about it.

    As someone with business interests in the UK, it has of course always been in my interest that the country join the euro-zone, but equally, the currency would have been much more robustly managed with Britain on board. Despite this and the doom-mongering, the euro has become one of the world's key currencies. When times were good, sterling kept its head above water, but now we are seeing its true weakness.

    Will Hutton offers a stark commentary here. Other than the usual national pride arguments, I'd be interested in opposing and supporting opinions of joining the euro from an economic point of view.

    Importantly, at the moment, the five tests for entry set by Gordon Brown are all met 100 per cent. Britain and Europe's economies are in perfect synch as we enter recession simultaneously. The labour market is flexible. Entry would attract much-needed inward investment, and save the City. It would boost growth. In economic and political terms it would be a masterstroke. Britain would become a member of a reserve currency zone at a competitive level, offering us a key role in the emergent debate about the governance of globalisation and the international financial system. We would remain prosperous and we would matter.

    Brown, I am told, when the idea was put to him not only ruled it out, he did not want it repeated again for fear even its mention would imply it was actively being considered. Euro membership is political poison, even as its logic becomes more compelling. The same crowd who cheerleaded Britain into becoming a de facto hedge fund in the name of free markets would now rather risk endemic inflation or endless recession and stagnation to avoid the dark hand of Europe.
    "If there is a sin against life, it consists not so much in despairing as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this one."
    Albert Camus "Noces"

  2. #2
    Poll Smoker Senior Member CountArach's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Sydney, Australia
    Posts
    9,029

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Can someone explain to me why the UK didn't join in the first place? Was it a sort-of England trying to pretend they aren't really European thing?
    Rest in Peace TosaInu, the Org will be your legacy
    Quote Originally Posted by Leon Blum - For All Mankind
    Nothing established by violence and maintained by force, nothing that degrades humanity and is based on contempt for human personality, can endure.

  3. #3
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Taplow, UK
    Posts
    8,690
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    The problem isn't the currency, it's the "leadership":

    Boom years: keep debt at a constant percentage of GDP - i.e. it can creep up
    Bust years: spend to stimulate economy - i.e. it can surge up

    When are the years we try to run as a surplus?

    Any currency with this outlook is in trouble - any country with this outlook is in trouble. The budget needs to be drastically altered. my preferences would be the two wars we are currently in - unless other countries want to pay us to fight, slim down the Civil service and cut social support in many areas.

    The currency looses value helps to increase imports and make the country - temporarily - more attractive to investors and for exports. Sure, imports are more expensive - but we need to reduce these in any case as we as a country have lived beyond our means for years.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

  4. #4
    Clan Clan InsaneApache's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Grand Duchy of Yorkshire
    Posts
    8,636

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Spot on Rory.

    The 'Great Leader' is often touted as the bestest Chancellor of the Exchequer that we've ever had, despite the fact that anyone with more than one brain cell can see that he's not fit to run a whelk stall. There was an article in the Times yesterday written by John Major (another 'not up to the job' man) in which he makes several good points...

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Sixteen years ago an economic gale blew away a vital part of my economic strategy; now, a more comprehensive storm has undone the entire economic strategy of the Labour Government.

    In the days of the late-lamented Prudence, the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time, promised an end to “boom and bust”. As Prime Minister that promise must haunt Gordon Brown, for he knows that - as Chancellor - he was culpable for the domestic circumstances that contribute to our dire economic plight.

    Who ignored the debt spiral as it built up? Who weakened regulation and allowed Northern Rock to offer 125 per cent mortgages? Who diminished Bank of England control over our banking system? Who wrecked final-salary pensions with a £5 billion-a-year tax levy? Who ignored the risks of the house price and equity boom? A glance in the mirror shows him the culprit.

    The Prime Minister admits to none of this but asserts that our present woes are due entirely to “an international crisis begun in America”. He repeats this mantra so often that he may have come to believe it. But no one else should. A large part of the crisis now engulfing us is home-grown in the Treasury and No10. The UK would be facing recession and a house price collapse without any international dimension. New Labour has as much financial blood on its hands as any erring banker on either side of the Atlantic.
    Background
    No theory can stop recurrent boom and bust
    Cameron: Brown's had his boom, now he's bust
    How far can Brown claim credit for quick fix?
    Brown hits back: this is no time for a novice

    Last year, at the Mansion House, the Prime Minister spoke of “an era that history will record as the beginning of a new golden age for the City of London”. Nemesis must have smirked. Within months there was the first run on a UK bank for 100 years, and the collapse of Northern Rock. Since then, the taxpayer has been called upon repeatedly to rescue our once-secure banking system.

    Yet ministers foresaw nothing of what was building up and, to judge by their inaction, understood even less. Their failure to do so is one reason the future is bleak for so many who did not profit from the boom, but will surely suffer from the bust.

    House prices are falling at the fastest rate since records began. Every home is losing value, but the plight of the elderly is especially heart-rending. Many who planned to boost their retirement income by trading down to release a cash nest egg have had their hopes dashed. The soon-to-retire face a double whammy: not only has the value of property fallen, but their pension funds - already weakened by tax levies - have also been cut in value by 30 per cent or more.

    Hundreds of thousands of elderly people did everything possible - without state benefits - to secure their future. Now, the crisis cut in interest rates is likely to reduce their income even further.

    At the heart of the troubles is debt. Debt has been this Government's biggest growth industry. Annual borrowing - even at the beginning of the recession - is at record levels: no comparable country is in a worse position.

    When Mr Brown claims that national debt is lower than many such countries, he is being less than candid. He knows he is excluding long-term liabilities such as £100 billion of private finance debt, our unfunded public sector pensions and the debts of Network Rail and Bradford & Bingley. Once these are taken into account, our true debt is nearly three times higher - at a shocking £76,000 for every household. The figures the Government uses to reject the charge of financial incontinence are as bogus as a fourpenny bit.

    Personal debt, too, has risen to levels never before seen - up by 70 per cent in a single decade. It is now the highest of any leading economy: higher as a proportion of income than any G7 country has seen. The Labour Government wallowed in the feel-good factor of this easy money: it made it popular, won elections, so Labour let it rip. The IMF tried - repeatedly - to warn Tony Blair and Mr Brown of the dangers ahead, only to be told it was “mistaken” and “wrong”. It was not.

    Mr Brown glosses over these errors. The UK, he claims, is better placed than most to deal with the crisis. But, if the IMF is correct, that is yet another juicy piece of fiction: it believes the UK will suffer the deepest recession of any leading nation. The collapsing value of sterling suggests it is not alone in that view.

    Faced with a blizzard of debt and a recession, the Government summons the ghost of J.M. Keynes and hints at further mega-borrowing, although whether this is for spending or tax cuts is not yet clear.

    This would be folly. Some distress borrowing is inevitable - recession will cut tax revenue and increase social expenditure - but if the Government appropriates Keynes to justify further massive public spending, it will be making a fatal error.

    What, then, to do? Most importantly, monetary policy has been eased. Beyond that, experience of the last recession makes me cautious. There is no pain-free way forward from the mess we are in. My heart says “yes” to tax cuts; yet my head tells me that, if we pile debt upon debt, there will be a painful day of reckoning. Today's unfunded tax cut is tomorrow's tax increase. We are not in a 1930s-style slump, nor do I believe we will be. It may be unpopular to say so, but we should be wary of mortgaging the future with even more debt.

    For 11 years Mr Brown has claimed personal credit for the economy that Labour inherited but the Conservatives created: “We have had the longest period of growth in the history of this country,” he says, conveniently forgetting that the first five years of this growth came under the last Conservative Government.

    As Mr Brown heads towards Washington, in his self-appointed role as economic czar to the wider world, there will no doubt be a spring in his step. But come the next general election the public will not be so easily fooled, or forgiving.

    As with every Labour Government we have known, its legacy will be a wrecked economy that - yet again - will take years to mend.


    The last point he made is significant. Every Labour administration has screwed up the economy...they just can't help themselves.

    As to joining the Euro, it may happen but whichever government caved in and did so, would be out of office for a very long time. Especially if it was on their watch that allowed the collapse of Sterling.

    It's fantastic to watch Brown and Darling these last few months. The men responsible for the credit bubble in the UK, responsible for saddling our grandchildren with enourmous debt, responsible for lax, even criminal neglect of the financial sector, responsible for selling our gold reserves at the lowest point in the cycle, responsible for 'off sheet accounting' ala PFI etc, etc. These men, Brown in particular, swan around, preening that they are the saviour of the worlds economy, when it is they and others like them, that are responsible for the mess that we're in.

    It's like me having a glazing business. I go around chucking half charlies through peoples windows and then I go and put new glass in. At a price. Then I expect thanks for putting the glass back in.

    Another thing. Brown can't stop grinning at the moment. Not that weird Frank Spencer grimace he used to do but a genuine smirk that rivals Shrubs 'Oh my god, I can't believe I'm prezzie' look. He hopes the recession will save his skin. Screw the country, as long as Brown can chisel his way into staying in power, then all's well.

    Election now. Brown out!
    Last edited by InsaneApache; 11-16-2008 at 14:36.
    There are times I wish they’d just ban everything- baccy and beer, burgers and bangers, and all the rest- once and for all. Instead, they creep forward one apparently tiny step at a time. It’s like being executed with a bacon slicer.

    “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy.”

    To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticise.

    "The purpose of a university education for Left / Liberals is to attain all the politically correct attitudes towards minorties, and the financial means to live as far away from them as possible."

  5. #5

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneApache View Post
    The last point he made is significant. Every Labour administration has screwed up the economy...they just can't help themselves.
    Hm.

  6. #6
    lurker Member JR-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,338

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    who said yes, and were they british, because with respect; if they were not then opinion is invalid, and if they were european then their opinion is suspect.

  7. #7
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Isca
    Posts
    13,477

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Quote Originally Posted by Craterus View Post
    Winter of Discontent?

    What state was the economy in when the Conservatives left Office.

    To answer Banquo's question:

    I fear a common currency shared by uncommon countries. The Eurozone may look good at the minute but we have seen that all those Chancellors and Finance ministers cannot work together. If we had joined the Euro and Brown had acted as he has would things have been worse?

    I don't know if the euro is a good idea over all but it seems to me that half the eurozone can't talk to the other half sometimes and I don't want tot be any more linked to that nest of vipers than I already am.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

    [IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]

  8. #8
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    15,617

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    I have to say don't know, currently buying PS3 games from the UK is often about 20EUR cheaper than buying them here, despite the shipping costs and conversion rate!
    If it would stay that way, go ahead, about time, if not, please don't.


    "Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu

  9. #9
    This comment is witty! Senior Member LittleGrizzly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2002
    Location
    The wilderness...
    Posts
    9,215

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Im sorry, we aren't allowed to comment on other countries politics ?

    As far as im concerned everyone is welcome to give thier opinions on british politics... whether i agree or not...

    I said yes... im british...
    In remembrance of our great Admin Tosa Inu, A tireless worker with the patience of a saint. As long as I live I will not forget you. Thank you for everything!

  10. #10
    TexMec Senior Member Louis VI the Fat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Saint Antoine
    Posts
    9,935

    Default Re : Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Of course the UK ought to join the Euro. It is good for Britain. It is, even when bearing in mind the costs of bailing Britain out, good for the Eurozone.
    It would be a complete no-brainer were it not for that wave of nationalist hysteria that is sweeping through Europe in the last few years. The whole of the City knows the Euro is exactly what Britain needs right now. Yet it would amount to political suicide, so I don't see it happening.

    Quote Originally Posted by Will Hutton
    For years Britain has indulged the City, allowing our financial system to grow four and half times the size of our GDP, a more modest version of Iceland, Ireland and Switzerland, but with the same risks.
    Spot on, this. The UK has been to Europe what Iceland has been to the UK. Deregulation of the financial market and ultraliberalism paid for a nice decade long party in both countries. The mess is for everybody else to clean up. France didn't have a recession, yet she is dragged down under. The Spanish banking system prevents a collapse like we're witnessing now, yet they share in the global recession. Depression maybe.

    We all are into the same mess. If the past two months learned anything, it is that going it alone led to more disaster, and that cooperation seems the means to overcome the crisis. Not since it served as a vehicle for European peace has the EU showed its worth more clearly than in the current crisis.


    Quote Originally Posted by IA
    Brown can't stop grinning at the moment. Not that weird Frank Spencer grimace he used to do but a genuine smirk that rivals Shrubs 'Oh my god, I can't believe I'm prezzie' look. He hopes the recession will save his skin. Screw the country, as long as Brown can chisel his way into staying in power, then all's well.
    I think Brown has been handling the crisis very well.
    Anything unrelated to elephants is irrelephant
    Texan by birth, woodpecker by the grace of God
    I would be the voice of your conscience if you had one - Brenus
    Bt why woulf we uy lsn'y Staraft - Fragony
    Not everything
    blue and underlined is a link


  11. #11
    Formerly: SwedishFish Member KarlXII's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    San Diego, California, United States. Malmö/Gothenburg, Sweden. Cities of my ancestors and my favorite places to go!
    Posts
    1,496

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Quote Originally Posted by CountArach View Post
    Can someone explain to me why the UK didn't join in the first place? Was it a sort-of England trying to pretend they aren't really European thing?
    I've been wondering this as well. I don't think they ever held a vote on it (forgot the proper term) as Sweden did.
    HOW ABOUT 'DEM VIKINGS
    -Martok

  12. #12
    lurker Member JR-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,338

    Default Re: Re : Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Quote Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat View Post
    Of course the UK ought to join the Euro. It is good for Britain.

    It is, even when bearing in mind the costs of bailing Britain out, good for the Eurozone.

    The whole of the City knows the Euro is exactly what Britain needs right now. Yet it would amount to political suicide, so I don't see it happening.

    Deregulation of the financial market and ultraliberalism paid for a nice decade long party in both countries. The mess is for everybody else to clean up.

    We all are into the same mess. If the past two months learned anything, it is that going it alone led to more disaster, and that cooperation seems the means to overcome the crisis.

    Not since it served as a vehicle for European peace has the EU showed its worth more clearly than in the current crisis.
    Why is it good for Britian - or more precisely; better than what we do now?

    Did 'someone' other than ourselves have to bail Britain out?

    I think you'll find that the city of london shudders in horror at the idea of contintental style financial regulation, it removes their competitive advantage.

    But we like a deregulated financial market, and in reality it was over-leveraged european banks and the US with its enforced social lending via Fannie and Freddie that have been responsible for much of the problem.

    Co-operation is always good, does that necessarily mean a global currency; or even the UK in euro?

    NATO has been the vehicle of europena peace, not the EU.

  13. #13
    lurker Member JR-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,338

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Originally Posted by CountArach -
    Can someone explain to me why the UK didn't join in the first place? Was it a sort-of England trying to pretend they aren't really European thing?

    Quote Originally Posted by SwedishFish View Post
    I've been wondering this as well. I don't think they ever held a vote on it (forgot the proper term) as Sweden did.
    It was that whole inconvenient democracy thing, the people didn't want it regardless of what the politicians in power thought was best for us.

  14. #14
    White Panther (Legalize Weed!) Member AlexanderSextus's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    THIS! IS! JERSEY!
    Posts
    613

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    As an american i would say no. England has long proven that it can be quite independent of europe, economically.

    While i can consider it part of europe, at the same time it isnt part of europe, however wierd that may sound.
    Do you hate Drug Cartels? Do You believe that the Drug War is basically a failure? Do you think that if we Legalized the Cannabis market, that use rates would drop, we could put age limits on cannabis, tax it, and other wise regulate it? Join The ORG Marijuana Policy Project!

    In American politics, similar to British politics, we have a choice between being shot in our left testicle or the right testicle. Both parties advocate pissing on the little guys, only in different ways and to a different little guy.

  15. #15
    Poll Smoker Senior Member CountArach's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Sydney, Australia
    Posts
    9,029

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculu5 View Post
    It was that whole inconvenient democracy thing, the people didn't want it regardless of what the politicians in power thought was best for us.
    Okay I understand that, but why didn't they want it?
    Rest in Peace TosaInu, the Org will be your legacy
    Quote Originally Posted by Leon Blum - For All Mankind
    Nothing established by violence and maintained by force, nothing that degrades humanity and is based on contempt for human personality, can endure.

  16. #16
    lurker Member JR-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,338

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    there can be no definitive catalogue, as not all apply or are agreed with by britons, but here are some:

    1. the EU was invented by france to ensure that germany never invaded again, germany was a bit embarrassed and so complied, their neighbours thought that was a jolly good idea too. not a problem Britain has.

    2. socialism took a firmer grip on the continent than ever did here, and the consequence is a much greater enthusiasm for regulation in matters socio-economic. we freebooting Britons pillaging the high financial seas see this as a threat to our competitive advantage.

    3. the continent as a result of the 100 years war, the franco-prussian war, the first world war as well as the second and many more, has suffered centuries of political instability repression and revolution. how many continental countries have not been facist, communist, revolutionary, and invaded in the last 350 years? the EU therefore represents stability to many nations, not a problem Britain has.

    4. for an economic union to work, in the bad times as well as the good, there needs to be a large element of political union; who is the lender of last resort, why should germany bail out italy's fantastic attempt to make the euro worthless, etc. we don't necessarily want a political union, we have an exceptionally successful political model already, and no-one has demonstrated why an extra layer of EU federalism is an improvement.

    5. we are rich in absolute and comparative terms, will joining the EU make us richer or poorer? certainly no-one has persuaded me that joining the EU will do anything but reduce britain's competitive advantage.

    6. we have a history with, and a duty to, the commonwealth nations to assist them in their socio-economic development, and we like the freedom to recommend our political structures and structure economic packages to their benefit as we see fit. specifically, we dislike EU trade protectionism and the damage we feel it does to developing nations, especially given the skepticism with which we view aid programs. there is no question that greater involvement in the EU further reduces our options with the developing world generally, and the commonwealth in particular.

    7. similar to #6, there further we integrate the less free our hand to act as we please, which is fine if we acted in concordance with the rest of the continent because we amplify our message, but bad if we have divergent views because our own will be watered down among 300 million continetal voices. if Britain decides it wants to join america in invading somewhere then i don't want to euro apparatchik telling us we can't because we signed up to a common foriegn policy!

    i have yet to hear these many mysterious benefits i hear touted encouraging britain to join the euro, and i rather suspect that silence will persist.....................

  17. #17
    The Usual Member Ice's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Northville, Michigan
    Posts
    4,259

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    I would say No. If the UK joined the Euro, they would also joint the European Central Bank and lose control of their own monetary policy. This isn't a good thing for them. For example, say most of Europe is running strong, but Britain is having sluggish economic growth. The European Central Bank would most likely raise rates to cool the rest of the European economy, while strangling the life out of a weak British economy. Vice versa works in this situation too.



  18. #18
    The Usual Member Ice's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Northville, Michigan
    Posts
    4,259

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Quote Originally Posted by AlexanderSextus View Post
    As an american i would say no. England has long proven that it can be quite independent of europe, economically.

    While i can consider it part of europe, at the same time it isnt part of europe, however wierd that may sound.
    Spot on

    Having sole control over your currency is a very GOOD thing.
    Last edited by Ice; 11-17-2008 at 03:52.



  19. #19
    lurker Member JR-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,338

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    a little more background reading:
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_...terling_crisis

  20. #20
    Sovereign Oppressor Member TIE Fighter Shooter Champion, Turkey Shoot Champion, Juggler Champion Kralizec's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Netherlands
    Posts
    5,812

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    It's up to the Brits, it doesn't affect me in the slightest. On the whole I quite like having the Euro; the "own monetary policy" argument doesn't really fly for the Dutch because our currency was always fixed to the German mark to begin with.

  21. #21
    lurker Member JR-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,338

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    if another country has a different opinion then more power to them. :)

  22. #22
    Hope guides me Senior Member Hosakawa Tito's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Western New Yuck
    Posts
    7,914

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    The EU may be just considered an economic/monetary policy pact, but he who controls the purse strings effectively controls all political policy. Personally, I'd be hesitant to endorse this too.
    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." *Jim Elliot*

  23. #23
    TexMec Senior Member Louis VI the Fat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Saint Antoine
    Posts
    9,935

    Default Re : Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Denmark is seriously considering joining the Euro at last. Norway, not an EU member, is seeking closer co-operation too. Scotland's nationalist first minister Alex Salmond would love to take his country into the euro if it ever wins independence.

    Now, in research published this week by Chatham House, a commission of the great and the good readdresses the issue of Britain and the euro and the prospect that, by the middle of the next decade, the UK could be in a minority of one, two or maybe three outside a eurozone of up to 25 member countries. Unsurprisingly, the conclusions are balanced, nuanced and ambivalent.

    On the one hand, the authors reject the notion that Britain should give up the pound simply to avoid "losing influence" among EU economic policymakers, especially the eurogroup which increasingly dominates debates and coordinates policy responses. They are unconvinced that the eurozone will in future see a greater convergence in terms of business cycles, growth rates, inflation and unemployment than in its first 10 years.

    On the other hand, they say, the eurozone has acted as a "safe haven" in the credit crunch and as a bulwark against the turmoil that would have arisen were the lira and peseta, say, still traded. "The stability offered by the euro would be especially welcome if, over the next ten to 20 years, the British economic performance deteriorated relative to that of the eurozone for a sustained period."
    link

    ~+~+<((*))>+~+~

    63% of UK’s top firms believe in euro benefits

    THE majority of Britain’s biggest companies believe they would benefit from joining the euro - though not at the bottom line, according to a new survey.
    The top of British' business, the people who know how Britain makes its money, seem rather convinced of the Euro's benefits.
    This was before the current financial meltdown. I rather suspect the number of pro-Euro firms will be much higher now.

    ~+~+<((*))>+~+~

    Another interesting question is, should Europe allow the UK to join the Euro? The Euro is not a 'get out of jail free' card, to be used as a measure of last resort whenever Britain has its traditional financial meltdown. The EU is about solidarity as well.
    Anything unrelated to elephants is irrelephant
    Texan by birth, woodpecker by the grace of God
    I would be the voice of your conscience if you had one - Brenus
    Bt why woulf we uy lsn'y Staraft - Fragony
    Not everything
    blue and underlined is a link


  24. #24
    lurker Member JR-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,338

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    small economies will indeed benefit from being part of a larger whole, particularly if they wish to participate in capital intensive parts of the service industry like the financial sector, though i would argue that less regulated economies will see their competitiveness stifled by regulatory harmonisation.
    britain is neither a small economy and nor too is it regulated to the degree of that seen on the continent.

    "though more than 80 per cent did not think it would make any difference to their sales or profits.
    Nearly 90 per cent said they expected their sales would remain the same, and just 13 per cent believed the euro would improve their profitability. But more than 40 per cent considered it would improve their market valuations."

    two points:
    > the british people will not end up richer.
    > captains of british industry looking for a greater market capitalisation are not the british people.

    and regarding the last point; do we want a get out of jail free card? i think we do not regardless the ammount of media speculation on the ramifications of the credit crunch for britain, indeed i doubt any great number of people see the euro as a liferaft.

  25. #25
    lurker Member JR-'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,338

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is the best financial analyst i know of:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...n-devices.html

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    Best to leave the euro to its own (de)vices
    Joining the single currency would make our situation worse, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.


    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 10:19PM GMT 01 Dec 2008

    Comments 30 | Comment on this article

    The euro is on a roll. Icelanders are clamouring to join, as soon as they can get into the EU. The Danes seem ready to abandon their long rebellion and sign meekly on the line. A Danish referendum is pencilled in for March.

    Eastern Europe's states are trying to engineer entry as fast they can to escape the hell of semi-fixed currencies. It was not such a good idea after all to take out euro mortgages in Budapest, Warsaw and Sofia – or Swiss franc mortgages, heaven forbid.

    Everybody wants a safe port in this Force 10 storm. No matter if it is full of undetonated mines. No matter, too, that Denmark's travails stem from membership of the ERM, a half-way house that has forced them to raise rates twice – into the Copenhagen property crash.

    José Manuel Barroso, the Commission's chief, was a little too honest telling French TV that the people who count in Britain hanker for monetary union. What a slip of language. Is this a reversion to his Maoist youth in Portugal, or has he been drinking the EU waters for too long?

    The people who count in British democracy are the voters. But let us not quibble. Mr Barroso is right to sense a shift in the undercurrents of British politics. This is a tricky moment for those who fear that total loss of control over our monetary policy would lead to even more destructive cycles of booms and busts than those we have already.

    "I don't want to break the confidentiality of certain conversations," said Mr Barroso. "But British political leaders have told me that: if we'd had the euro, we'd be better off."

    How, exactly, would we have been better off? Our current mess is caused by over-reliance on bankers (7·8 per cent of GDP), six years of incontinent spending by Gordon Brown and a housing/credit bubble that has pushed personal debt to 103 per cent of GDP.

    Joining the euro would not have prevented any of this. It would have made matters worse. The European Central Bank held rates at 2 per cent for part of this decade to help Germany out of the doldrums. Imagine what such rates – or anything near – would have done to Britain's property boom. You might as well have poured petrol on the fire, as Ireland and Spain can attest.

    Events since the crunch began last year – and reached volcanic fury in September – entirely vindicate our refusal to give up control over our economy. Sterling has come down from silly levels, falling 30 per cent against the dollar and 21 per cent against the euro. Perfect. The economy has suffered an asymmetric shock: the currency has acted as the shock absorber. Our sympathies to well-heeled Britons in Aquitaine or Umbria living off sterling rents, but policy is not set for their needs.

    The Bank of England botched the crisis at first, but it is now responding to emergency with stunning boldness. The 1·5 point cut in November – and what follows this week and beyond as rates fall to the lowest level since the Bank's creation in 1694 – may make the difference between recession and depression. Others that gave up their currency may not be so lucky.

    Would you really want Frankfurt to decide your fate? The "people who count" in global finance – investors, economists and hedge funds – are increasingly in despair about the conduct of the ECB. It has misread events at every turn over the past year. It panicked in July when it raised rates to offset an oil and food price spike. By then, Germany and Italy were already in deep recession, and Spain faced a housing crash.

    The "Shadow ECB", a panel of private economists from across Europe, last week called for immediate and drastic rate cuts, demanding to know what the ECB's strategy now is – if it has any at all. It would be going too far to describe the ECB's policy utterings as primitive gibberish – as two Nobel Laureates put it – but the bank is bent on a course of action that is at best very different from the reflation strategies of the Anglo-sphere, China and Switzerland, and risks repeating the errors of 1931 to 1933.

    These are early days in this long, winding crisis. We cannot yet judge whether the euro is a force for stability, or whether it is workable at all – given the lack of an EU treasury and debt union to back it up. Monetary unions can create an illusion of calm for a while. They shield sinners from market discipline, but in doing so they let problems fester.

    Locking the currencies together was the easy part of EMU. Once the euro was off the ground, it was unlikely to face an existential test for at least a full credit cycle. But then it gets harder. The Latin bloc has allowed costs to creep up, while Germany has squeezed wages with relentless discipline. The gap has grown wider every year.

    This is starting to matter. Investors are no longer willing to treat Greek, Italian, Irish or Spanish debt as interchangeable with German debt.

    Nothing is pre-ordained in the euro drama. The chief reason for launching the single currency – before economies had properly converged – was to force the pace of political union. It may have to deliver on this agenda. Either the EU creates the machinery to needed cushion the bust on Europe's fringes, or EMU will drift into crisis. The ball is in the court of very reluctant paymasters in Germany.

    Whichever of these two paths its chooses, there is no earthly reason for us to follow.

  26. #26
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    15,617

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    I also think experts who share my views are the best, but his illusion becomes obvious when he claims the people who actually count are the voters.
    Last edited by Husar; 12-02-2008 at 11:39.


    "Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu

  27. #27
    TexMec Senior Member Louis VI the Fat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Saint Antoine
    Posts
    9,935

    Default Re : Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculu5 View Post
    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is the best financial analyst i know of
    Ah, Evans-Pritchard. The same man who, when he was correspondend in the United States, wrote many an angry colum about how the Oklahoma bombings were an inside FBI job? The same man who fed his readership endless columns about how the Clinton adminisatration was a sign of "incipient fascism" in the United States?

    Really, the Telegraph is Britain's worst newspaper. An agenda driven, ultra-nationalist, rightwing rag. It's the Daily Mail without colour pictures and page three girls, to convince its conservative petty bourgeois readership that they really! honestly! are reading a proper newspaper instead of a foaming tabloid.


    The one thing Evans-Pritchard gets right is his portrayal of the enormous gap between the populace and the British financial, business, and political elites. The latter overwhelmingly hanker for monetary union, the former think that British independence is under assault again and that Britain needs to sail out under Horatio Nelson to defeat Napoleon.
    Anything unrelated to elephants is irrelephant
    Texan by birth, woodpecker by the grace of God
    I would be the voice of your conscience if you had one - Brenus
    Bt why woulf we uy lsn'y Staraft - Fragony
    Not everything
    blue and underlined is a link


  28. #28
    This comment is witty! Senior Member LittleGrizzly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2002
    Location
    The wilderness...
    Posts
    9,215

    Default Re: Re : Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    It's the Daily Mail without colour pictures and page three girls,

    Your thinking of The Sun, Daily Mail is somewhere in the middle, no boobs but plenty of tits... or no tits but plenty of boobs... works either way...

    I think the major reason against it is...
    europeans are different
    brits are different
    the pound! save it!
    damn french/germans!
    Freedom!
    Bearaucrats from brussels
    Immigrants!
    More rules and regulations
    Soveriegnty!

    and its generally something along those lines when i read a right wing newspaper commenting on the euro.... deep stuff...
    In remembrance of our great Admin Tosa Inu, A tireless worker with the patience of a saint. As long as I live I will not forget you. Thank you for everything!

  29. #29
    TexMec Senior Member Louis VI the Fat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Saint Antoine
    Posts
    9,935

    Default Re : Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    A quarter of British nearing retirement age dream of living abroad. Spain, France, and recently Croatia and Cyprus are hot spots. Half a million live in France alone.

    This is one of the great benefits of the EU. We have the space, the sunshine, underdeveloped rural areas that few of working age want to live in. Americans move to Florida or Arizona after retirement. Thanks to the EU, Europeans can do this too. Work in bleak Manchester, retire in 'Dordogneshire'. Travel times, telecommunication and administrative hassle of travelling have been greatly reduced by the EU as well. British grandchildren live only a few hours away by cheap train and can hop over as if they were travelling from Scotland to England.

    This fabulous system is now under threat.

    [British] Expat pensioners in Europe have seen their norm monthly pension income plumb bob by about €200 a month, thanks to falls in the value of sterling, a collective loss of more than €4 one million million of their income in the last two years.

    The shocking reduction, calculated by currency specialists HiFX, could get even worse if the pound continues to fall.

    If it hit €1.15, then their pension income could fall by a further €750 over the next year, and with involvement rates cut a full 1.5 per cent by the MPC last week, there is probably to be even greater pressure on sterling.

    Nick Fullerton, managing manager of currency broker FC Exchange, said: "This involvement rate cut will bring more doom and gloom to an already weak pound - but the thirster people put off their currency transactions, the more expensive it will become.

    More than a 1000000 Brits abroad claim the state pension, and are accordingly subjected to the vagaries of currency fluctuations.
    Obviously, currency fluctuations mean the pound could also rise against the euro. But a pensioner or retiree doesn't need a rise in value. He needs one thing only: stability and security in his financial plans. The recent currency fluctuations are nothing short of a million small dramas to British retirees.
    Anything unrelated to elephants is irrelephant
    Texan by birth, woodpecker by the grace of God
    I would be the voice of your conscience if you had one - Brenus
    Bt why woulf we uy lsn'y Staraft - Fragony
    Not everything
    blue and underlined is a link


  30. #30
    Clan Clan InsaneApache's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Grand Duchy of Yorkshire
    Posts
    8,636

    Default Re: Is it time for the UK to join the euro?

    My dads pulling out whats left of his hair. Since he moved to Greece in 02 he's lost upwards of £600 a month due to devaluation, of course he's all for joining the euro. I, on the other hand, am not convinced.

    Serves the old bugger right for spending my inheritence.
    Last edited by InsaneApache; 12-02-2008 at 13:43. Reason: punctution dear boy, punctuation.
    There are times I wish they’d just ban everything- baccy and beer, burgers and bangers, and all the rest- once and for all. Instead, they creep forward one apparently tiny step at a time. It’s like being executed with a bacon slicer.

    “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy.”

    To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticise.

    "The purpose of a university education for Left / Liberals is to attain all the politically correct attitudes towards minorties, and the financial means to live as far away from them as possible."

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO