Now, in research published this week by Chatham House, a commission of the great and the good readdresses the issue of Britain and the euro and the prospect that, by the middle of the next decade, the UK could be in a minority of one, two or maybe three outside a eurozone of up to 25 member countries. Unsurprisingly, the conclusions are balanced, nuanced and ambivalent.
On the one hand, the authors reject the notion that Britain should give up the pound simply to avoid "losing influence" among EU economic policymakers, especially the eurogroup which increasingly dominates debates and coordinates policy responses. They are unconvinced that the eurozone will in future see a greater convergence in terms of business cycles, growth rates, inflation and unemployment than in its first 10 years.
On the other hand, they say, the eurozone has acted as a "safe haven" in the credit crunch and as a bulwark against the turmoil that would have arisen were the lira and peseta, say, still traded. "The stability offered by the euro would be especially welcome if, over the next ten to 20 years, the British economic performance deteriorated relative to that of the eurozone for a sustained period."
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