Great Britain is not an Island

[Sarmatian]

ah well, in that case my thoughts are summed up by:

1. the EU was invented by france to ensure that germany never invaded again, germany was a bit embarrassed and so complied, their neighbours thought that was a jolly good idea too. not a problem Britain has.

I don't know why you keep bringing this on. After WW2, Germany was in no position to threaten France in any way. Partitioned, no army, no economy, no political influence, not to mention that a little later France became a nuclear power. Since Germany wasn't (and still isn't and won't be), no military threat to France from Germany exists.

Granted, UK is somewhat different to most European states in that regard and London is still one of the world's top financial centers, but is going to change and importance of London as a financial center is going to decline. By using "channels" (I'm sure there's a better word, but nothing comes to mind right now) from the times of the empire, London still controls a good chunk of money flow from southeast Asia and Middle East and that is going to change in favour of new financial centers that are emerging there... I expect that in several decades, UK will adopt the Euro and start integrating more in EU. Maybe even earlier, it depends on a huge number of factors...

[Watchman]

The kinds of ideas about closer economic cooperation across state borders that the EU stems from were being floated around already in the interwar period, you know. One reason was that the benefits of scale the US derived from the sheer size of its internal market were not lost on Euro economists.

Anyway, what can be regarded as the concrete first step in the chain that led to the present EU was the Coal And Steel Union formed between France, Germany, the Benelux countries and maybe someone else (can't be arsed to check the details ATM) shortly after the war; the direct impetus was a distruption in the supply of English coal due to domestic reasons that put French industry in a tight spot, and convinced them to start looking for alternate suppliers and arrangements.

Furuncu wasn't entirely incorrect, however, as one important consideration in the various postwar cooperative agreements indeed was binding the interests of at least the big boys of the block (initially France and Germany) so closely that they'd be flat out forced to cooperate and compromise with each other in the future. The downsides of confrontational competition and "me-firsting" had, after all, become demonstrated concretely indeed in the recent few decades...

[Furunculus]

The kinds of ideas about closer economic cooperation across state borders that the EU stems from were being floated around already in the interwar period, you know. One reason was that the benefits of scale the US derived from the sheer size of its internal market were not lost on Euro economists.

Anyway, what can be regarded as the concrete first step in the chain that led to the present EU was the Coal And Steel Union formed between France, Germany, the Benelux countries and maybe someone else (can't be arsed to check the details ATM) shortly after the war; the direct impetus was a distruption in the supply of English coal due to domestic reasons that put French industry in a tight spot, and convinced them to start looking for alternate suppliers and arrangements.

Furuncu wasn't entirely incorrect, however, as one important consideration in the various postwar cooperative agreements indeed was binding the interests of at least the big boys of the block (initially France and Germany) so closely that they'd be flat out forced to cooperate and compromise with each other in the future. The downsides of confrontational competition and "me-firsting" had, after all, become demonstrated concretely indeed in the recent few decades...

from wiki:

1945–1957: Peace from coal and steel
After two devastating world wars, the political climate favoured an international unity that ensured peace. (bombed Hamburg in 1943)

Main article: History of the European Communities (1945-1957)

World War II from 1939 to 1945 saw a human and economic cost which hit Europe hardest. It demonstrated the horrors of war and also of extremism, through the holocaust, for example. Once again, there was a desire to ensure it could never happen again, particularly with the war giving the world nuclear weapons. The countries of Western Europe failed to maintain their Great power status leaving two rival ideologically opposed superpowers.[2].

To ensure Germany could never threaten the peace again, its heavy industry was partly dismantled (See: Industrial plans for Germany) and its main coal-producing regions were detached (Saarland, Silesia), or put under international control (Ruhr area).[3] (See: Monnet plan)

With statements such as Winston Churchill's 1946 call for a "United States of Europe" becoming louder, in 1949 the Council of Europe was established as the first pan-European organisation. In the year following, on 9 May 1950, the French Foreign Minister Robert Schuman proposed a community to integrate the coal and steel industries of Europe - these being the two elements necessary to make weapons of war. (See: Schuman declaration).
Robert Schuman proposed in May 1950 the Coal and Steel Community.

On the basis of that speech, France, Italy, the Benelux countries (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) together with West Germany signed the Treaty of Paris (1951) creating the European Coal and Steel Community the following year; this took over the role of the International Authority for the Ruhr[1] and lifted some restrictions on German industrial productivity. It gave birth to the first institutions, such as the High Authority (now the European Commission) and the Common Assembly (now the European Parliament). The first presidents of those institutions were Jean Monnet and Paul-Henri Spaak respectively.

After failed attempts at creating defence (European Defence Community) and political communities (European Political Community), leaders met at the Messina Conference and established the Spaak Committee which produced the Spaak report. The report was accepted at the Venice Conference (29 and 30 May 1956) where the decision was taken to organize a Intergovernmental Conference. The Intergovernmental Conference on the Common Market and Euratom focused on economic unity, leading to the Treaties of Rome being signed in 1957 which established the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) among the members.[4]

[Furunculus]

I don't know why you keep bringing this on. After WW2, Germany was in no position to threaten France in any way. Partitioned, no army, no economy, no political influence, not to mention that a little later France became a nuclear power. Since Germany wasn't (and still isn't and won't be), no military threat to France from Germany exists.

Granted, UK is somewhat different to most European states in that regard and London is still one of the world's top financial centers, but is going to change and importance of London as a financial center is going to decline. By using "channels" (I'm sure there's a better word, but nothing comes to mind right now) from the times of the empire, London still controls a good chunk of money flow from southeast Asia and Middle East and that is going to change in favour of new financial centers that are emerging there... I expect that in several decades, UK will adopt the Euro and start integrating more in EU. Maybe even earlier, it depends on a huge number of factors...

because france had feared germany for the previous 100 years as a result of the demographic slide of former relative to latter, of which the last grasp for dominance by france was the franco-prussian war. one does not cast aside a hundred years of decline especially after two world wars have just been fought on your front lawn. wiki ssums the situation up nicely (quoted below).

Britain is a financial hub for more reasons than just history, though that plays a large part. Not so long ago that position was occupied by New York, which goes to show how important the regulatory environment is. this along with that history, the ease of movement of people, language, culture and institutions all play their part.
Yes Britain will decline, all of the old west is declining relative to the 'new' east, and we will certainly decline all the faster if we integrate our financial sector regulation with that of europe.
You might be right about the timeline, I for one won't put any certainty on predictions cast decades into the future.

[Sarmatian]

because france had feared germany for the previous 100 years as a result of the demographic slide of former relative to latter, of which the last grasp for dominance by france was the franco-prussian war. one does not cast aside a hundred years of decline especially after two world wars have just been fought on your front lawn. wiki ssums the situation up nicely (quoted below).

I'm not arguing that preventing future wars was one of the reasons behind EU, but saying that EU was French invention because they were afraid of future German invasion is oversimplification, to put it mildly. There were many other, even more important factors...

Britain is a financial hub for more reasons than just history, though that plays a large part. Not so long ago that position was occupied by New York, which goes to show how important the regulatory environment is. this along with that history, the ease of movement of people, language, culture and institutions all play their part.
Yes Britain will decline, all of the old west is declining relative to the 'new' east, and we will certainly decline all the faster if we integrate our financial sector regulation with that of europe.
You might be right about the timeline, I for one won't put any certainty on predictions cast decades into the future.[/QUOTE]

It's just a guess. I'm not a political analyst or an economic expert. We know it will happen but for "when", your guess is as good as mine...

[Furunculus]

The point about france was that france and others see in the EU security, where the UK does not.

I would even be to sure about that, there really isn't any net advantage to Britain for being inside the euro.