Fillet Royale- Large Mafia game [Concluded]

[Sarathos]

But I was just a simple beef-loving town.....

[Thermal]

But I was just a simple beef-loving town.....

join the club, town havent a chance on this game

[Reenk Roink]

join the club, town havent a chance on this game

You would like that wouldn't you Porkster?

The Sarathos lynching was just after all my hard work to try and convince the town otherwise...

[CountArach]

join the club, town havent a chance on this game

Then would you care to actually... you know... contribute something!?

[Andres]

Really, this no lynch madness has to stop.

How do you guys expect to kill the mafia if we are not going to lynch round after round?

We have only 8 players left. In a worst case scenario, there are two mafiosi left.

Please, keep in mind that we absolutely need to lynch next round or we lose this game.

tonight: 2 kills
tomorrow: 6 left : no lynch
next night: 2 kills
final day: 4 left : number of mafiosi equals number of townies = game over, mafia win.

FoS : Reenk Roink

[Reenk Roink]

Really, this no lynch madness has to stop.

How do you guys expect to kill the mafia if we are not going to lynch round after round?

We have only 8 players left. In a worst case scenario, there are two mafiosi left.

Please, keep in mind that we absolutely need to lynch next round or we lose this game.

tonight: 2 kills
tomorrow: 6 left : no lynch
next night: 2 kills
final day: 4 left : number of mafiosi equals number of townies = game over, mafia win.

FoS : Reenk Roink

This simplistic scenario ignores:

1) protown roles and their impact
2) mafia killing each other
3) actual evidence popping up justifying a lynch

But what else can I expect from the rmisguided masses?

[boudica]

Do we know for sure that Chicken mafia do not know the identities of Pork/Lamb etc?

During the Lambing of CA, was a possible conversion attempted? and would CA have been converted if he didn't have a (hinted at) role?

Was CA one of the Russians?

Will there be a surprise porking tonight?

[CountArach]

During the Lambing of CA, was a possible conversion attempted? and would CA have been converted if he didn't have a (hinted at) role?

Hmmm, interesting theory. I certainly didn't get any PM indicating anything like that. I certainly hope the mafia families don't have the ability to convert.

Was CA one of the Russians?

Nup.

[Beefy187]

Night 4


"Good morning ladies and gentlemen! And this is.... Beef Town news!! We have Jarred Lee, live from tonights victim."

"Good morning all! Yesterday, we Beef town news started our own investigation squad. What we did was patrol during the night and see if we can get the identity of the killers."

"Its very dangerous isnt it Jarred?"

"Indeed it is. But we think that it is our duty as Beef town community to catch the killers."

"Ok. Please tell us what the town is like recently."

"According to the scientists, some towns man of Beef town are so stubborn Beef lovers that they will get allergic reaction when they eat meats other then Beef. Those stubborn Beef lovers are the ones who got in the meeting."

"So are you saying that average townies don't mind eating other meat products?"

"Yes indeed. They seem to dislike it at first, but after a few steak, they will like foreign meats which is going around like porks, lambs and chickens."

"What is the reaction of our community towards those traitors?"

"Police have been arresting those who publicly eats foreign meat and investigates others. However as none of them seems to be guilty of murdering other townies, police still suspects that the murderers were amongst and still are in the stubborn Beef loving community. One of these people might be the murderer..


Glyphz
Andres
Reenk Roink
QJC
Rythmic
boudica
YLC"

"Jarred? I thought there were 8 people left in the meeting. You only mentioned 7?"

"Unfortunately Mr Seireikhaan was brutally murdered by what it seems to be lamb."

"Rest in peace Mr Khaan..."

"Also our crew found a drunken Russian wondering around yesterday. How this relates to the murders are still being investigated."

"Russians these days... Thank you Jarred. Now I will read the excerpts from The watcher today. Theres two separate articles. Heres the first one.

Excerpts 1
The watcher would like to tell you the happy news that Sarathos was found guilty of betraying the name of beef by eating lamb.

Excerpts 2
The Watcher is would like to tell the town to stand firm in resolve. He is the guardian of the town and will ensure a victory against the Lamb and Chicken mafioso groups.

Let it be known that Chaotix was indeed investigated and confirmed as a Lamb mafioso. How the Lamb killers continued to operate leaves several possibilities. Conversion perhaps, or perhaps they were two people strong, or perhaps even I was misguided though that is unlikely given my role.

Let the Chicken and Lamb mafiosos know this, they are https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k99h5aikc4g and will be caught.

"That would be all for today. May the cows bless those who go to the meeting today. Wish them good luck as they decide who the murderer was..."




Alive players 7/17

Glyphz
Andres
Reenk Roink
QJC
Rythmic
boudica
YLC

Killed 7/17

White_Eyes (Porked night 1)
Yoyoma (Lambed night 1)
ATPG (Chickened night 1)
Chaotix (Chickened night 2)
Tevash (Chickened night 3)
CA (Lambed night 3)
Seireikhaan (Lambed night 4)

Lynched (jailed) 2/17

777 Ares 777
Sarathos

WoGged 1/17

Bladeceath

Start day 5!!

[Beefy187]

Angry letter arrives on the watcher


Town! The first excerpt note from The Watcher is fake! The second is authentic The Watcher as you should be able to tell by style. Also, the Watcher investigated khaan last night and he was a 100% beefy and innocent and dead.

[CountArach]

Alright, now the problem with The Watcher manifests itself...

We have no true way of verifying whether the most recent angry letter was from The Watcher or whether it was simply the Mafia pretending to be The Watcher to fool us into disregarding the first message. All we have is text analysis. Below I have copied every single message that The Watcher has sent (If I missed one, feel free to alert me):
First message:

You will succeed as long as I am alive

Second message:

Disregard every message that comes to you except from The Watcher. I will also make sure to tell you if any fakes show up.

Askthepizzaguy was innocent, both by The Watcher's investigation and by kill. It is pointless theorizing about him.

Third message:

The Watcher has been investigating people who will die, but this time, unlike Askthepizzaguy, The Watcher noticed Chaotix's garbage smelled like lamb. It seems there are different Mafia families, and one has been knocked off by the other!

Dedicated to the Lamby Chaotix:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c720fVF4A3k

Fourth message (Excerpt 1):

The watcher would like to tell you the happy news that Sarathos was found guilty of betraying the name of beef by eating lamb.

Fifth Message (Excerpt 2):

The Watcher is would like to tell the town to stand firm in resolve. He is the guardian of the town and will ensure a victory against the Lamb and Chicken mafioso groups.

Let it be known that Chaotix was indeed investigated and confirmed as a Lamb mafioso. How the Lamb killers continued to operate leaves several possibilities. Conversion perhaps, or perhaps they were two people strong, or perhaps even I was misguided though that is unlikely given my role.

Let the Chicken and Lamb mafiosos know this, they are https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k99h5aikc4g and will be caught.

Alright things that can be noted from each one, in order:

1. First - No punctuation at the end of the message. Certainly legitimately from The Watcher because I find it highly unlikely that any true Detective would take the same name that a Mafia group made up earlier (Ie - in this post). Use of the first person.
2. Second - A decent grasp of the English language, but a bit of confusion in the second sentence with the use of the word "also", hinting the person may either be somewhat sloppy sometimes or a bit younger (And hence more likely to be prone to mistakes). Also note the American spelling of the word theorising, hence indicating that the person is American. Use of the first person.
3. Third - A good grasp of punctuation. First use of the youtube link, this time showing a good grasp of western culture; most probably someone who lives in England/US. Also the first time that the third person is used.
4. Fourth - The message that is most in dispute. There is an awkward use of the word "happy" here (The standard English idiom being "great" or "good"), perhaps pointing to one who lives outside the English speaking world. Also the way that lamb is referenced to me seems rather different to how it is referenced in message three. Quite crucially the name "Watcher" is not capitalised here AND ONLY here. I would say this message is definitely faked.
5. Fifth - Incorrect use of the word "is" in the first sentence. The constant use of the third person again seems reminiscent of the third message. The youtube link again shows a western cultural connection. The seamless use of the youtube title shows a great grasp of the language.

So from these messages I would say that the fourth message was faked and that the rest are legitimate. That then begs the question of who wrote number 4 - I would personally think it is a non-native speaker of English. Also the person is clearly experienced at mafia - no new players wouold try to get this complicated and try a gambit such as this. I personally would FoS: Andres for that reason.

I leave it with you now guys and girls.

[Chaotix]

Well, I don't think we should be able to trust any of them- who's sure that the "original" Watcher was definitely an investigator anyway? Now that there's conflicting views, we have even less reason to trust anything that is said, and it is hardly worth the time determining which ones are legitimate and which are not.

Of course, nobody is going to listen to a word I say, anyway, because the Watcher is saying I'm mafia.

[Beefy187]

"What is this?"

"Its from the watcher again."

The Watcher's Facts
===================

Askthepizzaguy - innocent (dead)
Chaotix - Lamb mafioso (dead)
Andres - innocent (alive)
khaan - innocent (dead)

The Watcher's Conclusions
=========================

These are based primarily on the writeups and my investigations but also on the happenings throughout the game

Game Mechanics:

***The three Mafia groups each have two members - This may seem like overkill to some, but let us remember that this was supposed to be a Large Mafia game which only got 17 signups.

***When one member dies, his group does not get to kill the following round and then resumes activity - Based on the fact that after Chaotix (confirmed Lamb mafioso) died there was no 'Lambed' kill

State of Game at the moment:

The Pork group died with Aries (meaning the first Pork mafioso probably died even earlier unnoticed and that roleblocking Aries on night two was redundant). The Chicken group had their first non kill night tonight meaning that Sarathos was a Chicken mafioso (khaan was innocent by investigation). Furthermore, by the nature of Beefy's PM's to me, the khaan investigation really stressed he was innocent wheras the Askthepizzaguy and Andres investigations were less forceful. I believe that this, in combination with the fact that the roleblocker did not show up in the latest write-up, points to khaan being the roleblocker. It should be noted that khaan criticized the roleblocker earlier. That seems like a perfect statement to make with the purpose of not looking like the roleblocker (and being targeted).

It seems by this reasoning, that there is currently one remaining Chicken mafioso and one remaining Lamb mafioso. The roleblocker is dead and the detective is alive (The Watcher).

Of course, there may be other explanations and interpretations of the events so far, such as people not sending in PM's. However, the interpretation of the events I have given seems to be a good bet.

This will be difficult to pull off, and we are all just https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUSDS9pkA2Y, but it can be done.

[naut]

Good analysis CA.

[boudica]

hear hear! Good stuff CA. Certainly alot more logical than what appears to be an elaborate attempt by 'The Watcher' to convince everyone of Andres' innocence

And certainly more logical than my post below :D

[boudica]

really confused though. If Chaotix & Sarathos were Lambites then a third lambing would have been unlikely. And why no chickening last night?

Maybe mafias need two members to kill every night and can only kill every other night when reduced to membership of one?

I'm going to be limited with time this evening (GMT) and I don't want to miss a vote, so I'll have a think and post up in a couple of hours. If anyone has an opinion of who should be jailed, It'd be good to hear it. for now:
vote: Andres

reason: Having re-read the entire thread, I'm still just going on instinct

[Sarathos]

Then would you care to actually... you know... contribute something!?

Sure CA, I will jump right in with the guys (and girl) who killed me...

[boudica]

Sure CA, I will jump right in with the guys (and girl) who killed me...

I was just about to contest that, but yeah - I guess my abstain vote did help lock the door on you Sarathos. Even so, if you are town, surely you still want to help out. What say if I feed you a little pattie through the bars of your cell, you could tell me what you think of my vote for Andres?

[Andres]

Please, tell me, why would I fake a message from the Watcher?

Also, do you think I'm capable of faking this one as well:

"What is this?"

"Its from the watcher again."

The Watcher's Facts
===================

Askthepizzaguy - innocent (dead)
Chaotix - Lamb mafioso (dead)
Andres - innocent (alive)
khaan - innocent (dead)

The Watcher's Conclusions
=========================

These are based primarily on the writeups and my investigations but also on the happenings throughout the game

Game Mechanics:

***The three Mafia groups each have two members - This may seem like overkill to some, but let us remember that this was supposed to be a Large Mafia game which only got 17 signups.

***When one member dies, his group does not get to kill the following round and then resumes activity - Based on the fact that after Chaotix (confirmed Lamb mafioso) died there was no 'Lambed' kill

State of Game at the moment:

The Pork group died with Aries (meaning the first Pork mafioso probably died even earlier unnoticed and that roleblocking Aries on night two was redundant). The Chicken group had their first non kill night tonight meaning that Sarathos was a Chicken mafioso (khaan was innocent by investigation). Furthermore, by the nature of Beefy's PM's to me, the khaan investigation really stressed he was innocent wheras the Askthepizzaguy and Andres investigations were less forceful. I believe that this, in combination with the fact that the roleblocker did not show up in the latest write-up, points to khaan being the roleblocker. It should be noted that khaan criticized the roleblocker earlier. That seems like a perfect statement to make with the purpose of not looking like the roleblocker (and being targeted).

It seems by this reasoning, that there is currently one remaining Chicken mafioso and one remaining Lamb mafioso. The roleblocker is dead and the detective is alive (The Watcher).

Of course, there may be other explanations and interpretations of the events so far, such as people not sending in PM's. However, the interpretation of the events I have given seems to be a good bet.

This will be difficult to pull off, and we are all just https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUSDS9pkA2Y, but it can be done.

[ULC]

Is it me, or is the Watcher very Pizzaguy-esque in nature?

[Andres]

It's definitely written by a native speaker.

[Andres]

Vote : Rythmic

11 posts, 2 of which to say he's in, which leaves only 9 in game posts.

He has succesfully been flying under the radar. None of his posts really contain something substantial.

One post in particular is very interesting:

What the hell is going on. I cannot see how refusing to lynch is a good tactic, sure it may buy some more time, but how much? Maybe one day, if we're lucky?

But, again, I haven't found nor seen anything of worth that may incriminate anyone. So a no lynch maybe crazy and risky enough to perhaps work.

Refusing to take a stand = typical mafia behaviour.

[Quintus.JC]

Please, tell me, why would I fake a message from the Watcher?

Also, do you think I'm capable of faking this one as well:

The fact that you are among the innocents in the watcher's report does seem a motive, although too obvious and silly. Although not a native speaker, your English seems fluent enough to produce such a report.

Vote: Rythmic

I have my reasons, which I shall not disclose to the public. Anyone who wishes to know is welcome to PM me.

[Reenk Roink]

CA's analysis is good, but he left out what probably is a watcher post here and definitely one here.

I do believe with the exception of the Sarathos post, the watcher's posts are all from one person and that that person is probably the detective.

The watcher's latest post is a very good analysis of how the game is run and what is the state of the game right now, and I am surprised that lady boudica thought it was confused and had only the motive to save Andres.

In fact, this letter is anonymous, but there is a good reason it came from the watcher, as it gives an "investigation" result as is the MO. It cleared Andres consistently with the watcher's rounds way before any suspicion on him.

On the native speaker issue, don't buy into that for a second. In Mafia V I used British English the entire time (ou instead of o, s instead of z, words like "flat" instead of "apartment", and European words like 'schwedentrunk') and I am a native American English speaker.

Anyway, I am surprised at the bandwagon on Rhythmic. While he isn't a bad choice, as some suspicious things have been said by him, I think Quintus.JC should be looked at far more. The most suspicious of them all is boudica, who disregarded the watcher and she also seemed not to have read his post.

Vote: boudica

[CountArach]

That is certainly legitimately The Watcher, so I would trust Andres.

Please, tell me, why would I fake a message from the Watcher?

My theory is that it is the sort of thing that an experienced Mafia player would attempt because it is clearly a risky move to put yourself out there like that. However, I find it highly unlikely that you would write that message. Still, The Fake Watcher message was written by a non-native speaker and this new one narrows down the list a bit.

Is it me, or is the Watcher very Pizzaguy-esque in nature?

Hmmm, I would say that the youtube links seem very un-ATPG. Also I asked Beefy if it was possible to send messages after you died and he said no, so that rules ATPG out.

Alright something that might be worth following is the uncapitalised 'watcher' in The Fake Message. Here are the people who have left it uncapitalised at some point, with links to the posts:

• Andres - 208
• Reenk Roink - 380, 411 and 444.
• Quintus - 365, 367, 393, 443

Andres has been cleared, so it is down to Reenk (Who has a history of messing with the town's head at every opportunity), or Quintus. Strangely, both Quintus and Reenk continued to leave things uncapitalised after I alerted the town to it.

Alright, now for the stuff Reenk just posted...

The first message he links to (Message 6 from now) contains nothing but a YouTube link and hence only helps to confirm the cultural connection we knew. The second message (Message 7) doesn't contribute much. The capitalisation of AND is important to provide emphasis, but I am the only person in this game who does that regularly as far as I know, so I'm not sure what that contributes.

On the native speaker issue, don't buy into that for a second. In Mafia V I used British English the entire time (ou instead of o, s instead of z, words like "flat" instead of "apartment", and European words like 'schwedentrunk') and I am a native American English speaker.

This is a good point, but I think that being able to differentiate between American and British English is one of those things which require a good grasp of the language in the first place. Regardless, it is probably better we don't get too close to revealing the identity of The Watcher as that would leave them open to be killed - I have my suspicions though.

Anyway, I am surprised at the bandwagon on Rhythmic. While he isn't a bad choice, as some suspicious things have been said by him, I think Quintus.JC should be looked at far more. The most suspicious of them all is boudica, who disregarded the watcher and she also seemed not to have read his post.

I agree that they would be two of the best lynches at this point. That said, I think that boudica is genuinely overwhelmed and uncertain. She has agreed with the longer, better thought-out posts throughout the game with the sole exception of The Watcher's. Quintus, on the other hand really piqued my suspicions with his non-existant explanation for the latest vote for Rythmic, and also the fact that he does not capitalise The Watcher.

[Thermal]

Wait does the watcher say im pork, or that im innocent and that pork was killed before me, his report doesn't say whether i'm supposedly innocent or mafia, if CA saying care to contribuate was addressed at me then i dont see why seeing as im dead, i did enough when i was alive

Beefy usually has a soft spot for new ones, i still am suspicious about Andres, ATPG like reports and CA's overly pro-townie posts make them 2 minor suspects, with andres as a lead on, and perhaps boudica, as she does more agreeing than contribuating, and is voting for andres, if there mafia partners it could make a diversion, i will see if she changes her vote before the days end, if she does it can be seen suspiciously, but seeing as i'm not a confirmed innocent why bother taking my advice.


regardless i will continue

Suspicious
Andres
Boudica

Minor
ATPG
CA

CA has proven hes an accomplished writer, another candidate for this shadowy watcher role, though the watcher could be innocent quite possible, again beefy likes the new ones and boudica fits that role, plus we dont know her from previous games, girls are supposed to be more accomplished at languages, it's entirely possible.

ATPG has spoke less than usual and these over interrogative posts keep slipping through, similar to his style, yet he tells us not to listen to this posts, hmmm either an unhelpful massive cover up, or truly nothing to do with him.

Andres for reasons previous, plus his writing is no more detailed than before, as a moderator and a tentative mead hall guy i assume he could write like this too, but again the watcher could be simply a town role, so not all so clear.

Well i told you you weren't going to get rid of me so take that as you will, if any evidence comes to show my innocence, then this post may be something to build on, though the fact people still think i have overwhelming evidence against me, well i don't get how, deaths are clearly more random by the day anyway, and the whole bandwagon on me sparked from a little bit of spamish posting, something many can be accused of, which i soon turned into serious talking, besides if i was a dead mafia i wouldn't put myself out like this and bother typing pointless words, as a townie i still feel involved in the case

[glyphz]

Tally:

Rythmic: 2 - (Andres, Quintus)
Andres: 1 - (boudica)
boudica: 1 - (Reenk Roink)

[Beefy187]

Beefy usually has a soft spot for new ones

What do you mean? Depending on the answer, your gonna get farted on your general direction

EDIT: If I lived near you, I would've given you a hug Glyphz

[naut]

Hahahahahahahahah.

Alright lynch me. Go on. I'm pure unadulterated, steak, beef loving town. I'd post my townie role PM, but I'm not sure it's allowed.

If I've been under the radar, what's boudica been? Off the map entirely.

Vote: boudica

[/Blazing Glory]

[Thermal]

What do you mean? Depending on the answer, your gonna get farted on your general direction

you have a way with words beefy, a way i can't quite put my finger on