Fillet Royale- Large Mafia game [Concluded]

[Sarathos]

Vote Quintus because....

[Quintus.JC]

Vote Quintus because....

Because?

Why did the lamb mafia not kill anyone on night 2? Maybe they forgot? Or maybe they can only kill every two nights?

Vote: Sarathos

Not meatballing here, I was going to vote Sarathos anyway because he was one of the players that was inactive on night 2, plus as a townie hasn't been contributing much/at all. Sarathos seems to post to avoid a clear WOG, scummy behaviour to me.

[Quintus.JC]

So The Watcher was a liar then? I doubt there can be more than 1 member for each mafia family as there's only 16 players to begin with, and 3 killers is enough. MOre than that is overkill, IMO.

Could The Watcher be mafia then?

I also don't trust the watcher. I also doubt there could be more than 1 member of each mafia family, so it could mean:

1. The watcher was lying, Chaotix wasn't the lamb mafia, and now the lamb guy is still on the loose.
2. The watcher was telling the truth, and now there's a lamb turncoat/convert on the loose.
3. The watcher was telling the truth, and there are suprisingly 2 lamb members, the remaining is doing all the murder.

One reasoning is as likely as the last, I'm not sure which one to believe now...

Also what's up with the Russian fellow, he seems to be one of the good guys.

[CountArach]

This is going to be hard for us to win.

[Thermal]

This is going to be hard for us to win.

made all the harder for lynching me last round
pork cant hide forever, you all believed me to be pork mafia so the porky doesnt attack, coinceidence, or just plain crafty tactics, at least you can see that at least choatix is half cleared, with a lamb killer around, besides the fact that theres a 4% chance of lynching 2/3 mafia in the first 2 days and only 8% of lynching one first

[Quintus.JC]

made all the harder for lynching me last round
pork cant hide forever, you all believed me to be pork mafia so the porky doesnt attack, coinceidence, or just plain crafty tactics, at least you can see that at least choatix is half cleared, with a lamb killer around, besides the fact that theres a 4% chance of lynching 2/3 mafia in the first 2 days and only 8% of lynching one first

You really used the probability tree diagram for that didn't you?

Anyway yes, this doesn't look good for town, and assuming if the porky is still alive then it would be even worse for town. We need to take some serious action, or else it could all be too late here.

[Beefy187]

Tally

Glyphz: 1 (Seireikhaan)
Andres: 1 (YLC)
Quintus: 1 (Sarathos)
Sarathos: 1 (Quintus)

4 more hours

[glyphz]

Vote: Andres

We cannot allow things to end in a no lynch, IMO.
Unsure who to vote for, so I'll have to stick to the last one I did vote for...

Tally
Andres: 2 (YLC,glyphz)
Glyphz: 1 (Seireikhaan)
Quintus: 1 (Sarathos)
Sarathos: 1 (Quintus)

Come on guys, place your votes!
I'll change my vote in the case of a tie, unless you convince me why there should be a no lynch this round...

[Reenk Roink]

Vote: glyphz

We must tie!

Andres: 2 (YLC, glyphz)
Glyphz: 2 (Seireikhaan, Reenk Roink)
Quintus: 1 (Sarathos)
Sarathos: 1 (Quintus)

[glyphz]

We must tie!

May I know your reason for possibly preventing a lynch, Reenk?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yeah... forgive me, but that Reeks, Roink.

[Chaotix]

At the rate townies are dropping, I think not lynching anyone would be a tragic mistake- we need to get these two remaining killers.

[glyphz]

I'd take back my vote, but knowing my true allegiance (whether you believe me or not), my lynch isn't gonna help town

[CountArach]

FoS: Reenk

That is resoundingly un-townie play. The town may only kill through the day and to deny that gives the mafia a free pass.

[glyphz]

4 more hours

Request for an extension, for the others who have not voted.

Please?

[Beefy187]

Request for an extension, for the others who have not voted.

Granted.. I had some job to do anyway.. Now i'm off to watch some soccer

Also letter has arrived to the Beef town police station

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Andres has been cleared of wrong doing by investigation

[Reenk Roink]

Because nobody has a good reason for voting anybody. The reasons are, to be frank, terrible; and the 'suspicion' I'm getting is contradictory.

Unlike the Aries lynch, the guy (Andres) is probably not guilty (suspicious he is, but right now is not a good time to go after people for that weak reasons). Beefy's tie rules are extremely generous. I'm going to do my best to make use of them.

Why are you lot so eager to dwindle our numbers and help the Mafia? FOS on all of you...

[ULC]

Because nobody has a good reason for voting anybody. The reasons are, to be frank, terrible; and the 'suspicion' I'm getting is contradictory.

Unlike the Aries lynch, the guy (Andres) is probably not guilty (suspicious he is, but right now is not a good time to go after people for that weak reasons). Beefy's tie rules are extremely generous. I'm going to do my best to make use of them.

Why are you lot so eager to dwindle our numbers and help the Mafia? FOS on all of you...

Please kindly explain then how you plan, or what your plan is, on actually disposing of the mafia is? If you refuse to tell us, you actually expect us to listen to you?

Unvote:Andres
Vote:RR

[Reenk Roink]

Please kindly explain then how you plan, or what your plan is, on actually disposing of the mafia is? If you refuse to tell us, you actually expect us to listen to you?

Unvote:Andres
Vote:RR

Who is refusing to tell anyone anything? You are attributing something false to me, pretty darn scummy.

As if the reason behind not lynching isn't self evident, I'll spell it out so YLC can be 'satisfied'.

Lynching somebody with bad reasons, a paragon being your non sequiter vote on Andres which I quote:

Yes, right CA...hmm, what are everyone's thoughts? Since I am trying desperately not to sound sarcastic, I am sure Aries can be believed now. The Pork was killed early on, obliviously, the Lamb either was inactive last night, or better yet, has decided to work with the Chicken mafia, otherwise the ploy would not have been so well coordinated. I am almost certain we can firmly belive in Ares at the very least.

Vote:Andres

...is just bad play. Especially when the rules are so relaxed that we don't have to lynch in cases of ties AND given the fact that this game was large to begin with although the full 25 wanted people did not sign up.

The thoughts behind my proposed strategy of tying the rounds up:

When there is strong evidence for someones guilt, such as the Aries case, I am more than happy to cast a lynching vote

However, when not present, such as in this round, not lynching would be are best option. Especially true in the earlier rounds where the probability of RANDOMLY getting a Mafia is less likely than getting an innocent (as obviously, in the late stages we should lynch unless absolutely no evidence pops up, which is unlikely).

The reason for this is obviously to keep our numbers intact and make it one more kill that the Mafia must do. I really honestly thought this was all but self evident and ampliative from the strategy. I guess I was wrong?

Now, how to determine what is strong evidence or not? Well, tough question to answer, though I think most can agree that your post and your vote gives absolutely no substance whatsoever. It is one of the worst votes ever in Mafia history, I'm sad to say...

Was this a good enough reason to:

1) show the inadequacies of the "lynching is good for the town" mentality (the only defense of which has been "it is the only way the town can kill")

2) show the benefits of pursuing a non lynch strategy unless we have clear information, especially in the earlier rounds?

Eh YLC?

Also unvote: glyphz

[ULC]

I think your relying on a few things here - numbers, timing, and clues

I already see how such a strategy may have value, but what I don't see is how it will actually hold up in practice.

There are nine of us left, and we are not fully aware of everyone's alignment, but if we throw in probable figures of two remaining mafia, then we have exactly two nights before things go downhill without a lynch. Meaning, evidence would have to appear quite quick, since tonight we will be 7 left, then 5, then 3, meaning two nights at max, or if were lucky and one of them off another, then we have 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 which is an extension of four nights, if he gets him this night, or worse 7, 5, 4, 3, 2.

But were actually counting on one of the mafia to off the other this way - not practical. And as can be seen, Beefy hasn't handed out any clues to indicate whom may be one of the mafia factions.

In either case, the sooner we kill them, the better the outcome. The longer we wait to lynch someone, the less time we have.

That is my analysis of the situation Reenk, and now pokes some holes in it

[Reenk Roink]

Your post this time is a lot more helpful to the town, I commend you for it.

I believe that a no lynch at this point is critical. As you pointed out (and as I admitted) we can't just not lynch throughout the game. That does leave it to the Mafia (or the pro-town roles which I'll get to) to do the work for us, and is too passive an approach, I agree.

But in this round, is anyone really even somewhat convinced that one of Andres, Sarathos, Quintus, glyphz, or myself is Mafia? Note that the probability that one or more of us is a Mafia is high, but the fact that we have named 5 different people with really no evidence is just poor.

I did not feel Andres's suspicious play earlier was enough to offset the harm of lynching an innocent at this stage. Would I feel differently if there were 5 left? Yes. But at this point, I believe that we have a better shot at letting pro town roles have one or two more shots (an interviewer (roleblocker?) and someone who goes through garbage (detective?) were present in the write ups, and this watcher guy seems to say he does investigations). It's better then shooting wildly in the dark.

Also, I at least am using this time to figure out who is doing what. I suggest other members read the thread, especially Beefy's offical posts. For example, I cannot be the roleblocker and could not be active last night...this kind of data is needed.

[boudica]

Sorry guys - ended up having to babysit last night with no connection. will be back to normal tomorrow but time actually over xmas - new year also very limited


vote: abstain

[Beefy187]

Sorry guys - ended up having to babysit last night with no connection. will be back to normal tomorrow but time actually over xmas - new year also very limited


vote: abstain

Probably not my line to say but don't worry about it. RL is more important then mafia

[naut]

What the hell is going on. I cannot see how refusing to lynch is a good tactic, sure it may buy some more time, but how much? Maybe one day, if we're lucky?

But, again, I haven't found nor seen anything of worth that may incriminate anyone. So a no lynch maybe crazy and risky enough to perhaps work.

[Quintus.JC]

My opinion is against no lynch, I recommended this tactic in the Golden rule; where the mafia isn't killing anybody. Problem is that there are 1/2 murders happening per night in this game. No lynches will spare innocent townies, yes. But if we don't lynch anyone then we're never going to find the mafia, we'll all just be sitting beefs. We don't have the time for no lynches, especially at this stage of the game.

My vote stands. Sarathos is behaving rather scummily, he's posts are largely there to avoid the WOG. Worse of all as a townie he is making no contribution what so ever and therefore we wouldn't miss him much. I don't have any evidence against anyone else so Sarathos has my vote for now.

[Beefy187]

I'm ready to end this phase, if glyphz agrees

I finished your cake

[glyphz]

I finished your cake

Already finished? I should have sent 2 cakes for twice the time
Anyway, I'm assuming 'most' people are against no lynching

Unvote: Andres ; Vote: Sarathos

[Beefy187]

Already finished? I should have sent 2 cakes for twice the time
Anyway, I'm assuming 'most' people are against no lynching

Unvote: Andres ; Vote: Sarathos

Then I would've ate it twice as fast. Quit trying your tricks of bribing the host

So can I finish the phase?

[glyphz]

By all means. You've been generous enough to grant an extension
Much thanks

[Beefy187]

No worries. Thanks for kind words and... cake!! Tally would make my day even more but...

Day 4 summery (yes? Is that right?)

After a heated discussion, Sarathos was decided to be jailed along with Ares.

"Firstly let us thank the cows for todays triumph! We found Sarathos to be guilty and thus we send him to jail."

"I like cows" replied Sarathos.

"Shut up you! Off to jail! Now then. Let us hope that the murders are over. If our Beef town is going to remain unpolluted or royal to Beef is up to you folks. Gents. Please watch your backs when you go home. And make sure you don't go out tonight."


Alive players 8/17

Glyphz
Andres
Reenk Roink
QJC
Rythmic
Seireikhaan
boudica
YLC (Came back from WoG)

Killed 4/17

White_Eyes (Porked night 1)
Yoyoma (Lambed night 1)
ATPG (Chickened night 1)
Chaotix (Chickened night 2)
Tevash (Chickened night 3)
CA (Lambed night 3)

Lynched (jailed) 1/17

777 Ares 777
Sarathos

WoGged 1/17

Bladeceath



Glyphz: 1 (Seireikhaan)
Quintus: 1 (Sarathos)
Sarathos: 2 (Quintus, Glyphz)
Reenk Roink: 1 (YLC)

Start night 4!! Night orders please!