The Scourge of Ephesus [Concluded]

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Just exchanging one "leader of the free world" for another. Nought to bother about.


Boudica: Good points were posted as to the timing of things, and I liked the tone of your personal reply. I had no idea that my one vote could come THAT close to killing you. 2 vote lynches this far into a game are not common. For now, you have damped my suspicions.

EDIT

Time for some 'splainin' from:

Chaotix27

10 posts so far, for 0.588 per page. All comments tend to be brief.

Voting pattern is thin but has participated in BOTH 2-vote lynches. Voted for Diablo Day1, missed Day2 and Day 3, voted Beefy on Day4, but then changed to Jolt who had largely been discarded as a suspect because of outright absence, abstained on Day 5, started with Ibn-K on day 6 but changed to caius?!? (a silly lurker vote this far in?) and slammed sereikhaan late in the voting when things had ebbed away from GH. This aced 'khaan.

That's quite a few lynchings for 10 posts in a thread....

Also interesting that you said

Well, dammit. I must apologize for missing not one, but two day phases and lynchings. I've been really busy with school lately, and just keeping up with the insane amount of posts

{my bolding}

Only missed the days, did we?

Strangely, you'd found time to make 5 posts over the course of 30 minutes or so the preceding day, roughly 24 hours before your "dammit" reference and more than 18 prior to the voting deadline. Didn't need to check out Ephesus that DAY?


Side Note: Yoyoma bandwagoned Jolt pretty quickly in lock step with Chaotix on Day4; Haven't dug into that yet...

[Beefy187]

Weird....why do you feel bad you are the.....oops..... *shuts mouth*

All the arguments took place when I was sleeping

To all you American friends, have fun

I shall see the big fella on TV when I wake up

[Askthepizzaguy]

Guys? I know I'm not the most popular townie in the world, but...

Wasn't it me who was suspicious of GH way back when, and then he was basically confirmed to have a role, and he isn't murdered yet?

Just making sure you realize that there are only two options: He's a mafia, or they are keeping him alive as a suspect just to throw you. And given he has a role, or claims to, isn't that just a bit risky?

Someone is playing ballsy, and they have my respect.

edit:
I know a bunch of people confirmed they were blocked by him. That's swell. But, it is possible that he has a dual role. People can be blockers and mafia at the same time.

But don't listen to me, I've bungled a couple games so far.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Theory in spoilers.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

"O tempora, O mores!" the old man said, all of the sudden. In his hands he held the silenced gun. "Let us do this the civilised way." His hands shaking he pointed the gun at seireikhaan and fired a shot.

"You idiot!" the aggressive tourist said. He slapped the old man in the face, grabbed the gun out of his hands and pointed it at seireikhaan. Two popping sounds and a few seconds later, seireikhaan dropped dead on the sand of the Odeion, surrounded by his own blood and brains.

The man walked forward and pointed a silenced gun at shlin28.

Before he could get a good look on the man's face, a bullet between his eyes ended the life of shlin28.

The man lights a cigarette and slowly walks away.


.....later...


Two bullets mercilessly ended his life.

The man in the shadows puts away his gun, lights a cigar and slowly walks away.

I call to your attention the odd fact that The old man has a silenced gun, and fires a single shot. Single shot man smokes cigarettes. I also note there is still another mafia alive, who always fires two shots. He smokes cigars.

Why would the role blocker, who can block two people, who bores them with stories, need a silenced weapon? GH is also content to believe he is the victim of a massive conspiracy against him, and his posts almost seem to be an apology for not getting the mafioso yet, even after blocking two people every night, since the beginning of the game.

you are never so lucky as to survive this long blocking two people a night. I am sorry, but you are guilty.

Now that you have my little opinion, discuss.


I cannot figure out the O tempora clue. Can anyone help?

O tempora o mores! is a famous sentence by Cicero in his First Oration against Catiline. It translates as Oh the times! Oh the customs!

In his opening speech against Catiline, who had previously tried to kill him, Cicero deplores the viciousness and corruption of his age. Cicero is frustrated that, despite all of the evidence that has been compiled against Catiline, who has been conspiring to overthrow the Roman government, and the fact that the senate has given senatus consultum ultimum, Catiline has not yet been executed. Cicero goes on to describe various times throughout Roman history where consuls have killed conspirators with even less evidence. Sometimes, in the case of former consul Lucius Opimius' slaughter of Gaius Gracchus (one of the Gracchi brothers) based only on "quasdam seditionum suspiciones" certain suspicions of insurrection (Section 2, Line 3))

This sentence is now used as an exclamation to criticize present-day attitudes and trends, often jokingly or ironically.

[TinCow]

I've been combing through this thread for info regarding GH for a while now. I've unconvered some interesting stuff. I'll post it later today when I'm done.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Pizza: (and TinCow)

Your own argument provided the reason for GH's survival. The Mafiosi are aware that, absent better clues as to who is mafia and who is not, this blocking/protecting thing is a bit random. So, since he can't really enjoin their efforts completely, leaving him alive as a focus of suspicion provides lots of distraction.

Now, the other part about the silenced gun is more interesting. GH's detractors need to build on that to make a case.

COULD der general play on the highwire like you suggest -- oh yes -- but the role blocker thing seems an unlikely combo with mafia status. I do not have enough yet to say your argument is correct and that GH's role should be removed.

Thoughts?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Seamus, I concur it's not 100%.

But problem:

Gh can block 2 people a night, and has survived how many nights? Eventually, the mafia would be blocked.

Regardless of the value of keeping him alive as a suspect, he's bound to hit them eventually. I wonder why he hasn't.

And why he still lives.

[TinCow]

I will comment after the night phase ends.

[Yoyoma1910]

Side Note: Yoyoma bandwagoned Jolt pretty quickly in lock step with Chaotix on Day4; Haven't dug into that yet...

I voted Jolt the previous day as well.

I voted him again because he maintained that he couldn't be mafia, since he wasn't online during the weekends.

[Andres]

The Scourge of Ephesus - Night 7 - Conclusion



The Ancient Site of Ephesus - 0.00 am

A sudden forecast at Ephesus had darkened the moon and the star constellations making the ancient city dark as the tomb of Saint John.

Seamus had felt uneasy all day as if something evil was brewing in the general area of the ruin city, and had taken to wander amongst the ancient attractions. He finally found himself at the tomb of Saint John. Seamus had since childhood been sensitive to spiritual things and he finally found some peace here at the grave of the apostle.

The clouds dispersed briefly and the moonlight bathed the tomb area in an eerie light. A sudden fright pricked the heart of Seamus as he saw the resemblance of a faint being leaning at one of the pillars. The moon was swallowed by the clouds again and Seamus felt the hair on his neck stand out. He croaked: “W..wh..o are y..you?” The darkness surrounding him gave no answer and the peaceful feeling he had had was replaced by a heavy sense of hatred. The darkness closed around him and he felt as if the darkness wanted to crush him. “What do you want with me?” he screamed to the darkness. It was but a faint croak that slipped past his lips which somehow felt frozen. Yes…. The temperature had fallen and he was shivering. Then something slapped against his face. At first just a faint physical stroke as if a feather was pulled across his face, then harder and harder until it bloodied his nose.

He still couldn’t hear anything. Even the night creatures were silent. Then a faint sound came from nowhere in particular. It grew louder and louder until he could clearly hear that it was laughter. The laugher was wild and unrestrained like a madman’s.

When it finally stopped, a voice boomed out: “ There are just a few more things I would like to try out”. A piercing pain gripped around Seamus’ heart and he slumped to the ground in agony. The pain was unbearable and he was about to surrender his soul to the grave when suddenly it passed, leaving him panting on the marble that gave floor to the tomb.

The moon cleared the sky again and Seamus could see a clear outline of a man standing above him. The face was terrible to look at and the smile of the creature was twisted and it gnashed its teeth when it talked. “I have a mission, dear Seamus and I must leave you be. Talk of this to no-one, or I will be forced to come and see you again”. The eyes of the being started to glow in an eerie reddish color. And when the moon went behind the clouds, only the red eyes were visible in the darkness. The evil presence disappeared when the eyes blinked out and Seamus was left lying next to the tomb stone which read: ST. JEAN IN MEZARI. What was that being and what would befall the tourists here at Ephesus?”

Allthough it seemed like he just imagined his nose bleeding and apparently nothing had happened to him, Seamus was afraid, very afraid.

***



The temple of Artemis - 0.30 am

A man was walking in the vicinity of the ancient temple of Artemis.

He saw a shadow near a pillar and quickly jumped aside, drawing his .44 Magnum.

The man in the shadows was pointing his silenced gun at his target while he was staring at the .44 Magnum.

"Stalemate," I guess, the target said, cold as ice.

"So it seems," his attacker answered.

Both put away their guns and left the scene.

***



The theater - 1.30 am

El Diablo stood in the theatre and looked around him.

He had always been interested in history and he started to imagine himself, performing for a Roman crowd.

Oh! How great would it have been to be standing here as the main character in a pantomine, wearing a mask.

El Diablo started to dance and sing in the theatre and for a brief moment, he forgot about the lynchings, the killings, the weird accidents; he was happy.

He heard somebody applauding.

He looked up and saw a man clapping in his hands.

"Well, thank you, good sir."

He bowed.

The man quickly drew his gun and two bullets ended El Diablo's life.

"You're welcome," the man calmly said, and he left the theatre, lighting a cigarette.

***

The Scourge of Ephesus - Day 7



Ephesus - The Prytaneion - 9.00 am

The tourists gathered near the Prythaneion.

The old man was there already.

"I just found El Diablo's corpse. He was a fine and promising history student, but alas, he is no more." The old man started shaking and trembling.

An aggressive tourist stepped forward and kicked the old man in the stomach.

"Oh, stop it already, you fool. We don't need you telling us what to do."

And so the tourists started to talk. Again...

***

Alive (12)

boudica
GeneralHankerchief
187Beefyz
Chaotix27
YLC
Yoyoma1910
Ibn-Khaldun
Lord Winter
CountArach
Caius
Glyphz
Seamus Fermanagh

Killed (9) :

777Ares777
TheFlax
White_Eyes :D
Reenk Roink
Askthepizzaguy
Quintus.JC
woad&fangs
shlin28
El Diablo

Lynched (6) :

TinCow
Tevashzat
FactionHeir
Jolt
Sigurd
seireikhaan

WoG/Suicide (3):
Rythmic
Ignoramus
Tiberius of the Drake

It's now Day. You can start voting. Day will last +/- 24 hours.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Score!

I protected Seamus and glyphz, thinking that the mafia would go after Seamus based off kill patterns (killing shlin and Quintus in respective nights).

Will post feedback PM as soon as I get it.

-edit- Here we are.

You found Seamus in agony near the Artemis temple, he's so afraid that he can't speak. You calm him down and take him with you.

After you picked up glyphz, you take them both to the secret corridor.

You started to tell them about Ancient Rome and the history of Turkey. Again, adding stories about Emperors and their pets doesn't help.

They both fall asleep.

Andres.

Now, if you excuse me, I need to rest. Be back in a few hours, hopefully.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

For those of you with remaining doubts about GH:

GH informed me of who he would protect by PM, with the PM time-stamped 3 minutes BEFORE Andres posted the Night Results.

I suppose an argument could be made because of the leering monster figure above my frightened self that GH is not a Good Guy, but it is quite clear that he is not mafia and saved me from a hit.

Was the attempted "hit" Chaotix' counter-argument to my earlier suspicion?

Vote: Chaotix27



Not sure about the encounter: however, St John the Divine, whose tomb Andres referenced, is the author of Apocalypto (Revelations). There is definitely some form of supernatural overlay to this, and not merely a mafia war.

Were the grave-diggers looking for a number on the bodies?

I am puzzled.

[TinCow]

I wrote this earlier today, but held off on posting it because I did not want the mafioso to potentially switch their targets to GH if they weren't already targeting him. On a cursory review of this most recent write-up, I don't see much that would change my results, so I will post it as is. The only thing I will note is that the strange things that happened to Seamus seems to go along with my proto-theories about RR being reincarnated or somehow still active below.

GH Evidence:

Let's start by looking at what GH claims his own role is.

Claimed Role:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The Guide

You are the guide, mentioned in the opening scene.

You have a perfect knowledge of the Ancient City of Ephesus.

Each night, you are allowed to protect two players. When you do so, you’ll hide them in the secret tunnel between the ancient library and the ancient brothel. When you protect a player, you’ll also block his/her actions for that night.

Each night, you have to pm me the names of the people you’re going to protect. Your pm has to reach me before the night ends.

Assination attempts on you might fail under certain circumstances.

Good luck!

Nothing of note in the Role PM. There is a misspelled word, but that's neither evidence for or against a fake as far as I can tell. His role PM claims he blocks AND protects 2 people per night. The role says that the guide was mentioned in the opening scene. This is where he is mentioned:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

An old man was giving an explanation to the last group of tourists near the well preserved remnants of the ancient library of Celsus in Ephesus.

Manfredo, aged 60 now, was listening to the explanation of the old man and tried to imagine himself how this building once contained between 12.000 and 15.000 scrolls.

When the old man told about the secret and hidden corridor that once connected the library with a nearby brothel, as to allow the ancient scientists and philosophers to discretely discover some more earthly pleasures, the audience laughed.

Note that the old man was talking to Manfredo, thus the old man cannot be Manfredo.

• Night 1 Action:
  
  GH claims he blocks Sigurd and Quintus.
  777Ares777 is killed.
  Hysterical man (likely RR) "sharpens a blade" and talks about enjoying himself.
  No mention of the old man in the write-up.
  
  Claimed results PM:
  
  Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  You wake Sigurd an Quintus up and take them with you, to a secret hiding place.
  
  You bore them with stories about Ephesus until they fall asleep.
  
  Andres.

  
  
  Sigurd later confirms that he received an Andres PM about this action.
  
  Another misspelling, but nothing suspicious. Both Sigurd and Quintus are now dead, invalidating the idea that one was mafioso and successfully blocked. However, killing only 1 person on the first night is a very good mafia tactic, and thus this round does not look suspicious to me.
  
  
• Night 2 Action:
  GH claims he blocks Reenk and Tevash.
  No one is killed.
  Digging Duo drop a gun, hysterical man drops a sword. Both are picked up by athletic man.
  Hysterical man (likely RR) is talking to a "young one" and says "YOU ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!"
  
  Claimed results PM:
  
  Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  You took Tevash and Reenk with you, to the secret corridor.
  
  You started to tell them about Ancient Rome and the history of Turkey.
  
  Both were so bored by your talking that they fell asleep.
  
  However, somehow you felt like someone else had been watching you. Maybe it's just paranoia, maybe it's something more...
  
  Be careful, Guide...
  
  Andres.

  
  
  The bolding is missing on the names, but this looks like an Andres PM. Andres is fond of ellipses and these are present. Apparently an investigator of some kind was investigating GH that night.
  
  RR later confirms twice that he received an Andres PM about this action.
  Tevash later confirms that he received an Andres PM about this action.
  
  Conversation between GH and Andres after that result:
  
  Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  Question: How apparent is it that I've taken people to the secret corridor? (i.e. will the blocked/protected know that they have been blocked/protected?) Also, if anybody tries to kill them will it show up in the thread? I'm guessing it will here since it looks like one of us got investigated the last night, but... PM is not the thread.
  
  Thanks,
  GH
  
  

  Failed attacks will be narrated in the thread.
  
  Role blocks won't be narrated in the thread nor in your night report.
  
  Some role(s) can watch you or the people you are protecting/blocking. Your night report may hint at that, but nothing more then that.
  
  

  
  
  Note says that role blocks won't be narrated, but protections will.
  
  The lack of kills this night is nothing suspicious. They Dynamic Duo were digging up corpses, and thus not killing. The only strange thing I see here is that GH is supposed to have blocked RR, but the hysterical man still shows up in the write-up. Then again, he's not actually doing anything except talking to a "young one" so perhaps this isn't contradictory.
  
  
• Night 3 Action:
  GH claims he blocks Seamus and shlin.
  TheFlax, White_Eyes :D, and Reenk Roink are killed.
  Hysterical man destroys a 'fake' statue.
  
  Claimed results PM:
  
  Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  You took Seamus Fermanagh and shlin28 with you, to the secret corridor.
  
  When you woke up Seamus, you noticed somebody watching him. You don't know what to make of it. Maybe you're just getting paranoid.
  
  Anyway, you took them with you, to the secret place.
  
  You started to tell them about Ancient Rome and the history of Turkey.
  
  Both were so bored by your talking that they fell asleep.
  
  
  Andres.

  
  
  Note again an investigation shows up. The investigator was watching Seamus. This is significant for reasons I will get into in a moment.
  
  Seamus later confirms that he received an Andres PM about this action.
  
  Regarding the kills, TheFlax and White_Eyes were killed by our friendly neighborhood mafioso, but Reenk Roink is killed by Manfredo. The Manfredo kill occurred on the same night as an investigation, indicating that they were done by different people. Thus, we have 3 potential pro-town roles: GH (Guide), Manfredo (likely vigilante), and a detective of some sort. This is important because the detective investigated GH on night 2. He has never spoken up to attack GH. If GH had been guilty, this almost certainly would have happened. It has not, so the detective does not think GH is mafioso after investigating him.
  
  Also note that the hysterical man bit is placed in between the kill write-ups for WE and RR. In previous two phases, it was placed first. This implies that its order is intentionally placed. RR is killed AFTER the hysterical man destroys the statue, indicating that he could have been the hysterical man, even though he died that night.
  
  
• Day 4
  GH reveals.
  During the lynch phase, GH barely escapes the lynch.
  A random tourist makes this interesting statement:

  "Well, ok, eh, nevermind. But that senile has to shut up, he annoys me as well! With his hysterical screaming and yelling!"

  The "senile" person is engaged in hysterical screaming and yelling? The hysterical man screams and yells, but the old man (GH) is the only one who seems to be senile. If it weren't for the fact that on N6 the hysterical man destroys the statue and the old man (GH) is specifically noted as upset about this, the above bit would make me extremely suspicious of GH.
  
  
• Night 4 Action:
  GH claims he blocks ATPG and boudica.
  ATPG is killed by Manfredo.
  "Shady man" finds an envelope and is happy about it.
  
  GH's claimed results PM:
  
  Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  You hurried to the place where you were supposed to pick up Askthepizzaguy. You hear voices and a horrible scream. As fast as your old bones can carry you, you run to the temple.
  
  You see a shadow on a wall. Frightened (you're not exactly a hero) you seek cover. You wait a bit and sneak carefully towards the designated spot, only to find ATPG's dead body.
  
  How is this possible? This wasn't supposed to happen! You're starting to tremble, but you still remember your other protégé of the night.
  
  You took boudica with you, to the secret corridor.
  
  You started to tell boudica about Ancient Rome and the history of Turkey.
  
  Like all the others, boudica fell asleep, bored as hell...
  
  
  Andres.

  
  
  This is the first night we get some confirmation of GH's role. ATPG is specifically described as going off to visit the old man. This is concrete proof that the old man exists and can do something along the lines of block/protecting someone. Obviously, Manfredo has the ability to kill despite the Guide's protection.
  
  As an aside, note that boudica was blocked on a night when the Dynamic Duo were active digging and Manfredo was killing. She is unlikely to be mafia.
  
  Dunno what's going on with the "shady man". Perhaps this is Manfredo being narrated before he kills ATPG. No idea what the envelope is about.
  
  
• Night 5 Action:
  GH claims he blocks Sigurd and boudica. (Obviously double-checking people who were blocked on nights with decreased kills, a smart pro-town move.)
  Quintus.JC is murdered. Manfredo seems to locate a mafioso, but fails in the kill. A silenced pistol goes flying in the process.
  Reenk Roink is possibly reincarnated? The hysterical laugh is there, and there's a guy talking about old wounds, which is consistent with RR's death. Then again, the man in black could be Manfredo and the hysterical laugh could be someone else (GH?)
  
  
• Night 6 Action:
  GH claims he blocks YLC and Beefy.
  The hysterical man (RR? He's dead, but possible reincarnated earlier? If not reincarnated, then he was never the hysterical man in the first place.) appears to destroy another statue.
  shlin28 and woad&fangs are killed.
  The old man (GH) is upset that a statue is destroyed. This is evidence that GH and the hysterical man (RR?) are not compatible in their goals.
  The athletic man (Manfredo) does not show up at the end, which perhaps indicates he is dead
  
  
• Day 7:
  The old man is narrated as committing the execution. He produces "the silenced gun", but his hand is very shaky and the shot goes awry. This gun is likely the same one that went flying when Mafredo fought the mafioso earlier in the game. I can't figure out how he got it, but with a source for the gun now available, it's not strong evidence against GH. Also, he clearly cannot shoot very well, as his hand shakes and his shot goes awry. This indicates that he is not a killer.

Conclusion:

GH is probably telling the truth and is a pro-town block/doctor role. His night actions are confirmed by four people, Sigurd, RR, Tevash, and Seamus. This is too many for them all to be lying mafiosos. Thus, GH's actions are real and he does what he says. In addition, GH is specifically mentioned as committing actions on nights when both the Digging Duo are active and when Manfredo is active. He is not any of them. Finally, there is a detective out there who is not Manfredo and this detective has investigated GH. He has not publicly come out against GH, indicating that he thinks GH is innocent.

All of the above leads to the conclusion that GH is telling the truth about what he can do. This is all based on solid evidence provided in various ways via Andres, not the entirely questionable in-thread behavior that many other people are using. The question remains what GH's alignment is. Is he pro-town, neutral, or mafioso?

In general, his role appears to be oriented towards the town. There are two things that suggest otherwise. First, GH is still alive. This is certainly questionable, but a smart mafioso might also leave GH alive for the very reason that we keep talking about him and he keeps drawing lynch votes. Second, there are strange hints here and there in the write-ups that somehow connect the "old man" and the "hysterical man." These disturb me greatly, but in the N6 write-up, the old man is specifically said to be upset that the statue has been destroyed. I can't figure out any way that this can interpreted to mean that the old man and the hysterical man are either the same person or in alliance with one another. Thus, based exclusively on the N6 write-up, this second concern should be dismissed unless something else comes up.

So, this leaves us with a verified role that seems pro-town and no reason based in actual evidence to assume that GH is anti-town. Under these circumstances, I simply do not think that lynching GH is the logical thing to do. Is it possible that GH is faking this all? Sure, but the evidence is very strongly in favor of him being pro-town. The best thing to do is put your faith in the evidence provided by Andres himself, not gut-instincts. Solid evidence must trump instinct.

If we eventually get evidence that shows GH is working against the town, then we lynch him. If that never appears and GH really is anti-town, then we can all at least say that the evidence did not point towards a GH lynch and that the town cannot be blamed too heavily for missing something they should have seen.

So, what have we learned from all this?

1. Do not lynch GH. The preponderance of the evidence supports his claims as to his role. There is a possibility that he is lying, but the evidence is with him. It would be very bad logic to go with a hunch over the evidence that we have before us. IMHO it is worth risking an anti-town GH victory when the evidence available from Andres himself supports GH. If GH is pro-town and we lynch him, I would be ashamed to be a townie due to our idiocy in ignoring the evidence. If GH is mafia and wins, I will congratulate him on a great victory and be content that I did the best I could with the evidence that was given to us.
   
   
2. Pay very close attention to anyone who has been consistently pushing for GH's lynch over the last few days. They are likely mafioso. This is an area where further investigation of the thread would be extremely worthwhile.
   
   
3. In addition, be very, very wary of anything RR says. It's possible that he is some strange hysterical ghost type character. He was killed and may have possibly been resurrected and is knocking over statues once again. He can no longer vote, but it appears to me that he is still submitting night actions. GH's role doesn't like these actions, indicating that they are not being done in the town's interests. DO NOT TRUST RR, at least not until we get more information about what he is/was doing, if anything. As this issue bleeds into the strange references to some kind of relationship between GH and the hysterical man, this area should be investigated further as well.
   
   
4. Sigurd was probably the athletic man/Manfredo. That character disappeared after the Day 5 phase. If you read the lynch writeup, you'll notice that it mentions both Sigurd and the athletic man. However, the way it's written is ambiguous and both those statements could be coming from the same person. In addition, for the first time the towns executes the kill, not the athletic man. After this, the athletic man no longer appears in the game. In addition, Sigurd, makes a sly statement which indicates this might be true.
   
   Thus, Sigurd was probably Manfredo and we have lynched the vigilante. Manfredo had found one of the mafioso on a previous night. PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANYONE SIGURD SAYS IS SUSPICIOUS. Sigurd, I'm sure we'd all be grateful if you'd let us know who you think we should lynch.

[Thermal]

great analysis, i finally see why your such a fine candidate for the gameroom mafia award

[Sigurd]

edit.. I am dead and can't reveal.

[TinCow]

In reviewing my own analysis, I noticed that I missed something. On N5, GH claims he blocked Sigurd. That night we see what appears to be Manfredo facing down a mafioso. As noted in my conclusion, I believe Sigurd was Manfredo. Was the failed hit by/on Sigurd because of GH's protection? If so, shouldn't this have been narrated in some manner in GH's reply PM from Andres? Alternatively, is this Manfredo's ability to ignore role blocking at play? If none of the above, is there some chance that GH was himself sparring with Manfredo here? If that is true, then GH and Manfredo would not be on the same side. The pertinent question is which one is on the town's side in such a scenario?

Too many questions along that line of reasoning to develop anything from it, but it's something to keep in mind. I'd like to see GH's night results PM for N5. There's no reason for GH not to disclose this and I'm curious why he did not do so earlier.

[GeneralHankerchief]

N5 and N6 results PMs:

You took boudica and Sigurd with you, to the secret corridor.

You started to tell them about Ancient Rome and the history of Turkey. Disappointed with all those people always falling asleep, you try to make your story more interesting by adding juicy details about Emperor Augustus and his horse.

Alas, they both fall asleep. You seem to be a rather boring story teller...

Andres.

You took Beefy and YLC with you, to the secret corridor.

You started to tell them about Ancient Rome and the history of Turkey. Again, stories about Emperors and their horses don't help.

They both fall asleep. You seem to be a rather boring story teller...

Andres.

I do have a couple of comments about your analysis but I'm writing my inauguration thoughts first.

[TinCow]

People Sigurd voted for:

Day 1: Tevashzat (Lynched Day 2)
Day 2: Tevashzat (Lynched Day 2)
Day 3: GH
Day 4: CountArach
Day 5: seireikhaan (Lynched Day 6)

Sigurd was then lynched.

Worth noting, in the process of looking up Sigurd's voting record, there is yet more evidence that Sigurd is both Manfredo and pro-town. Based on my previous analysis and this continuing evidence, I would put a lot of faith in following Sigurd's advice.

Sigurd knew who the mafioso was on Night 5, as shown by the attack. This means it was either uncovered that night or earlier via an investigation (see below). While Sigurd voted for seireikhaan on Day 5, he actually said that seireikhaan was probably innocent while the lynch vote was still going on. This indicates he was not going after his known mafioso with his vote that night. He was probably hoping to simply survive the lynch round and then eliminate him in the next night phase. This indicates that the mafioso was still alive at that point.

There are only two people alive who Sigurd voted for: GH and CountArach. Sigurd knew someone was scum, so he almost certainly tried to get one lynched at some point. Let's look at what Sigurd's opinions were on GH and CountArach before he died:

Sigurd is glad GH wasn't lynched.

Sigurd thinks GH is pro-town:

I will not retaliate against you since your role is by far more valuable for the town than my vanilla townie role. I can do my analysis dead as alive. Being killed by mafia is the best option since I will be more or less confirmed innocent.
I do however question the decision of not even trying to take you out as you are a threat to any bad guy in this game. Are you communicating with players outside this game? Do you discuss with others your choice of blocks? Have you learned that attempts have been made on the players you protect?

Incidentally, this post includes more tidbits from Sigurd:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

We need to figure out if the athletic man/shadow killer, which I think is YLC, is bad for town. Up until now he has killed twice. Does he investigate on the nights he is not killing? that would count for night one and two and five.

He is essentially saying he was investigating on night 1, 2, and 5.

Sigurd's only significant analysis post of the game. He puts a lot of effort into the post and then ends with a relatively minor and insignificant reason for voting for CountArach. This seems like a contradiction to me. Indeed, in hindsight it looks like Sigurd created the analysis post as an excuse to hide his vote for CountArach, because he did not want to explain his real reason for voting for CountArach. This is consistent with Sigurd knowing that CountArach is mafioso based on night actions alone.

So, let's do another summary:
1) Sigurd was almost certainly a pro-town vigilante/detective Manfredo.
2) Manfredo knew who at least one mafioso was.
3) The only person Sigurd has put any effort into lynching is CountArach

Conclusion:
Lynch CountArach

[Lord Winter]

Its hard to argue against a couple pages of anyalsis.

Vote: CA

A response would be nice to hear.

The only problem with your anylsis is that its putting alot of weight on the write up. I havn't played in any other games by andres but is it typical of him to put clues in?

[CountArach]

I'm very tired after watching the inauguration last night (4am - what is this madness?). I'll get something up soon though.

[CountArach]

Alright TinCow, I find your analysis interesting, though there are a few crucial problems which you haven't covered yet.

He is essentially saying he was investigating on night 1, 2, and 5.

Here is the first problem. If Sigurd knew I was mafia after an investigation result on Night 2, why did he wait until Day 4 to vote for me? Surely he would vote for me on Day 3 to try to get rid of one mafia member as soon as possible. So why did he vote for GH instead? It becomes even more unconvincing if you believe that I was investigated on Night 1.

Further - why did he not use his vigilante abilities to try to kill me at some point?

He puts a lot of effort into the post and then ends with a relatively minor and insignificant reason for voting for CountArach. This seems like a contradiction to me. Indeed, in hindsight it looks like Sigurd created the analysis post as an excuse to hide his vote for CountArach, because he did not want to explain his real reason for voting for CountArach.

Another problem here. If Sigurd knew I was mafia then why didn't he go looking for evidence in my posts? Once a detective knows that someone is mafia then it isn't hard to find legitimate proof in the thread.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Okay, too tired to do anything else today. Will contribute tomorrow.

For now, my only problem with TC's analysis is the Sigurd/Vig/Manfredo connection in light of the most recent writeups (Mexican standoff).

Vote: abstain

[Chaotix]

Well, after those huge analysis posts I am probably not in danger of being lynched this round, but nonetheless I am now seen as scummy by at least one person, so I'll have to provide a defense for myself.

Time for some 'splainin' from:

Chaotix27

10 posts so far, for 0.588 per page. All comments tend to be brief.

Voting pattern is thin but has participated in BOTH 2-vote lynches. Voted for Diablo Day1, missed Day2 and Day 3, voted Beefy on Day4, but then changed to Jolt who had largely been discarded as a suspect because of outright absence, abstained on Day 5, started with Ibn-K on day 6 but changed to caius?!? (a silly lurker vote this far in?) and slammed sereikhaan late in the voting when things had ebbed away from GH. This aced 'khaan.

That's quite a few lynchings for 10 posts in a thread....

Also interesting that you said

{my bolding}

Only missed the days, did we?

Strangely, you'd found time to make 5 posts over the course of 30 minutes or so the preceding day, roughly 24 hours before your "dammit" reference and more than 18 prior to the voting deadline. Didn't need to check out Ephesus that DAY?


Side Note: Yoyoma bandwagoned Jolt pretty quickly in lock step with Chaotix on Day4; Haven't dug into that yet...

Alright. The main reason why I am so irregular with voting rounds is because... well, I have an irregular schedule. I am still in high school, and so generally I don't get home till 4 every weekday, and sometimes not until 7 if I have one of my various after-school practices. Add on to that homework, studying for tests, and reports, and I don't have a whole lot of free time. I may have a lot of homework one day, and the next I may not. There's really no predicting it. That free time that I do have is not always spent here, either- I do have a life and other things to do.

In fact, I could use today as an example. I got home roughly an hour and a half ago (7:00 my time) and have 2 essays due tomorrow, one of which I haven't started yet. So I find myself conflicted as to how much longer I should actually spend writing this lengthy defense post.

As for votes:

Day 1- Nothing wrong with that vote, I suppose?
Day 2 I missed outright due to homework.
Day 3- You are right, I was online earlier this day, and got sidetracked (I honestly can't remember exactly what now that it's been about a week). I planned on returning later to vote, and you'll notice I did, but had missed the deadline by about an hour or two (I think.) That's why I had cause for the "dammit".
Day 4- I voted for Jolt, as I believe I said, because he had contradicted himself, and made it seem it was obvious he was innocent because he had not been there, something I found scummy. Additionally, it was pure chance he was lynched.
Day 5- I did not have time to read through the thread and vote intelligently, but I did not want to WoG'ed for missing another round. Hence the abstain.
Day 6 was hectic. I had a lot of time, as it was the weekend, and so I changed my vote multiple times as new suspects appeared to me. My vote on I-K was because of his behavior, which was universally suspicious looking, if perhaps "noobish". Voting Caius was just humoring GH because I thought he had some sort of plan. I intended to, and did change it later, when he did not respond. My vote on seireikhaan- the way I saw it, either GH or khaan was going to be lynched that day. GH had a much better track record than khaan, and khaan looked fairly suspicious with his huge accusation post out of nowhere- I decided it would be best if GH remained alive, and so I voted khaan to ensure his survival. Who would you have picked between the two?

As for my using the phrase "Day Phase" and not "Night Phase": Are you just looking for more little reasons to lynch me? Generally speaking, a townie cannot "miss" a night phase because there is nothing for him to miss. I said "Day Phase" because that's when I should have been active to vote.

And finally, as for the surprise attack on Seamus: Killing you wouldn't have shut you up. In fact, it probably would have made you more against me. Thus, if I even were a mafia, killing you would still have not been in my favor. Surely you realize this?

Phew. Is that enough 'splaining for ya? I'll be off to go do my essays, and I may be on later to vote. Until then, Vote: Abstain

[ULC]

Rather convincing essay you have their TC - I will follow it's lead for now and wait for GH to post.

Vote:CountArach

[TinCow]

Alright TinCow, I find your analysis interesting, though there are a few crucial problems which you haven't covered yet.

Here is the first problem. If Sigurd knew I was mafia after an investigation result on Night 2, why did he wait until Day 4 to vote for me? Surely he would vote for me on Day 3 to try to get rid of one mafia member as soon as possible. So why did he vote for GH instead? It becomes even more unconvincing if you believe that I was investigated on Night 1.

I don't know why he waited that long. That information isn't in the thread and that's all I've got to go off of. He was busy killing RR and ATPG on Nights 3 & 4. Perhaps they were higher priorities for some reason. Perhaps he got the info on you later. There are reasons that would make sense for a pro-town Sigurd and reasons that wouldn't. I'm not trying to railroad you, just trying to help the town win with the only tool I have available: this thread.

Further - why did he not use his vigilante abilities to try to kill me at some point?

Did you just slip-up? I was actually alleging that he did just that on Night 5, resulting in the stand-off situation. That is what I claimed in my analysis. However, in hindsight, I realize that the Night 5 hit could have been either way: Manfredo killing mafia or mafia killing Manfredo. I thought it was Manfredo killing mafia and said so.

So how did you arrive at the conclusion that he never tried to kill you? Is it perhaps that you know that the Night 5 hit was you attacking him? I will admit though that this line of thought poses some interesting issues. If Manfredo was the recipient of the attack, rather than the attacker, then it would instead have been a situation in which the mafioso knew who he was on Day 5 rather than the other way around. I would thus have expected the mafioso to vote for Sigurd, especially since he was up for lynching that day. Yet you abstained, which is a bit of evidence in your favor. The people who voted for Sigurd that day were GH, YLC, w&f. w&f is dead, leaving YLC and the guy who always seems to turn up in the wrong places in my analysis, GH. Argh.

Another problem here. If Sigurd knew I was mafia then why didn't he go looking for evidence in my posts? Once a detective knows that someone is mafia then it isn't hard to find legitimate proof in the thread.

Dunno.

[Beefy187]

Ill restrain my self from hoping on the popular vote and wait for CAs defense.

[CountArach]

I don't know why he waited that long. That information isn't in the thread and that's all I've got to go off of. He was busy killing RR and ATPG on Nights 3 & 4. Perhaps they were higher priorities for some reason. Perhaps he got the info on you later. There are reasons that would make sense for a pro-town Sigurd and reasons that wouldn't. I'm not trying to railroad you, just trying to help the town win with the only tool I have available: this thread.

Alright:

1. What could be higher priority than killing a mafia family member?
2. How could he get the information on me later if he only investigates when he can't kill?
3. Can you name one of these reasons for Sigurd not to try to kill me?

Did you just slip-up? I was actually alleging that he did just that on Night 5, resulting in the stand-off situation. That is what I claimed in my analysis. However, in hindsight, I realize that the Night 5 hit could have been either way: Manfredo killing mafia or mafia killing Manfredo. I thought it was Manfredo killing mafia and said so.

Alright, now I understand what you mean. That still leaves the question of why he didn't try to kill me earlier open. If a vigilante knows for sure who a family member is, that family member will be killed ASAP.

So how did you arrive at the conclusion that he never tried to kill you?

Every night action he has made has already been accounted for. None of them involved killing me - ergo my conclusion is that he never tried to kill me.

Honestly I can't see how you could conclude that Sigurd knew I was mafia, yet chose not to kill me.

[Chaotix]

....back. As expected, everybody seems too concerned with GH or CA to care much about my explanation. I will take it that everybody has accepted it, then? Or perhaps I should wait till Seamus sees it to draw that conclusion.

Anyway, TinCow seems to have provided a solid defense for GH, and CA a solid defense for himself. Unfortunately for me, this puts me at a loss as to who to vote for.

I will try to get in a vote early tomorrow or at school.

[TinCow]

Alright:

1. What could be higher priority than killing a mafia family member?
2. How could he get the information on me later if he only investigates when he can't kill?
3. Can you name one of these reasons for Sigurd not to try to kill me?

Alright, now I understand what you mean. That still leaves the question of why he didn't try to kill me earlier open. If a vigilante knows for sure who a family member is, that family member will be killed ASAP.

Every night action he has made has already been accounted for. None of them involved killing me - ergo my conclusion is that he never tried to kill me.

Honestly I can't see how you could conclude that Sigurd knew I was mafia, yet chose not to kill me.

Again, my conclusion was that Sigurd did try to kill you on Night 5. If this is wrong, then my assumption about you is wrong and thus my basis for urging your lynch. I'm still not positive on whether Manfredo was the attacker or the target in the N5 write-up. I will look into it in more detail tomorrow (I'm off to bed now). If someone wants to help a bit in the meantime, go check how many pro-town roles there were in the previous game.

[TinCow]

Anyway, TinCow seems to have provided a solid defense for GH, and CA a solid defense for himself. Unfortunately for me, this puts me at a loss as to who to vote for.

I am slowly starting to run into logical roadblocks. I am getting a nagging feeling that only one of GH and Sigurd are pro-town, not both. However, I can't tell whether I'm just imaging this due to incomplete evidence or things I don't know, or whether it is true. Even if it is true, I'm not finding much to help me figure out which one would be the right one to trust.

I'm out for the night now. Hopefully when I wake up, someone will have fixed the holes in my various theories.