The Scourge of Ephesus [Concluded]

[CountArach]

Alright TinCow, I find your analysis interesting, though there are a few crucial problems which you haven't covered yet.

He is essentially saying he was investigating on night 1, 2, and 5.

Here is the first problem. If Sigurd knew I was mafia after an investigation result on Night 2, why did he wait until Day 4 to vote for me? Surely he would vote for me on Day 3 to try to get rid of one mafia member as soon as possible. So why did he vote for GH instead? It becomes even more unconvincing if you believe that I was investigated on Night 1.

Further - why did he not use his vigilante abilities to try to kill me at some point?

He puts a lot of effort into the post and then ends with a relatively minor and insignificant reason for voting for CountArach. This seems like a contradiction to me. Indeed, in hindsight it looks like Sigurd created the analysis post as an excuse to hide his vote for CountArach, because he did not want to explain his real reason for voting for CountArach.

Another problem here. If Sigurd knew I was mafia then why didn't he go looking for evidence in my posts? Once a detective knows that someone is mafia then it isn't hard to find legitimate proof in the thread.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Okay, too tired to do anything else today. Will contribute tomorrow.

For now, my only problem with TC's analysis is the Sigurd/Vig/Manfredo connection in light of the most recent writeups (Mexican standoff).

Vote: abstain

[TinCow]

Alright TinCow, I find your analysis interesting, though there are a few crucial problems which you haven't covered yet.

Here is the first problem. If Sigurd knew I was mafia after an investigation result on Night 2, why did he wait until Day 4 to vote for me? Surely he would vote for me on Day 3 to try to get rid of one mafia member as soon as possible. So why did he vote for GH instead? It becomes even more unconvincing if you believe that I was investigated on Night 1.

I don't know why he waited that long. That information isn't in the thread and that's all I've got to go off of. He was busy killing RR and ATPG on Nights 3 & 4. Perhaps they were higher priorities for some reason. Perhaps he got the info on you later. There are reasons that would make sense for a pro-town Sigurd and reasons that wouldn't. I'm not trying to railroad you, just trying to help the town win with the only tool I have available: this thread.

Further - why did he not use his vigilante abilities to try to kill me at some point?

Did you just slip-up? I was actually alleging that he did just that on Night 5, resulting in the stand-off situation. That is what I claimed in my analysis. However, in hindsight, I realize that the Night 5 hit could have been either way: Manfredo killing mafia or mafia killing Manfredo. I thought it was Manfredo killing mafia and said so.

So how did you arrive at the conclusion that he never tried to kill you? Is it perhaps that you know that the Night 5 hit was you attacking him? I will admit though that this line of thought poses some interesting issues. If Manfredo was the recipient of the attack, rather than the attacker, then it would instead have been a situation in which the mafioso knew who he was on Day 5 rather than the other way around. I would thus have expected the mafioso to vote for Sigurd, especially since he was up for lynching that day. Yet you abstained, which is a bit of evidence in your favor. The people who voted for Sigurd that day were GH, YLC, w&f. w&f is dead, leaving YLC and the guy who always seems to turn up in the wrong places in my analysis, GH. Argh.

Another problem here. If Sigurd knew I was mafia then why didn't he go looking for evidence in my posts? Once a detective knows that someone is mafia then it isn't hard to find legitimate proof in the thread.

Dunno.

[Beefy187]

Ill restrain my self from hoping on the popular vote and wait for CAs defense.

[CountArach]

I don't know why he waited that long. That information isn't in the thread and that's all I've got to go off of. He was busy killing RR and ATPG on Nights 3 & 4. Perhaps they were higher priorities for some reason. Perhaps he got the info on you later. There are reasons that would make sense for a pro-town Sigurd and reasons that wouldn't. I'm not trying to railroad you, just trying to help the town win with the only tool I have available: this thread.

Alright:

1. What could be higher priority than killing a mafia family member?
2. How could he get the information on me later if he only investigates when he can't kill?
3. Can you name one of these reasons for Sigurd not to try to kill me?

Did you just slip-up? I was actually alleging that he did just that on Night 5, resulting in the stand-off situation. That is what I claimed in my analysis. However, in hindsight, I realize that the Night 5 hit could have been either way: Manfredo killing mafia or mafia killing Manfredo. I thought it was Manfredo killing mafia and said so.

Alright, now I understand what you mean. That still leaves the question of why he didn't try to kill me earlier open. If a vigilante knows for sure who a family member is, that family member will be killed ASAP.

So how did you arrive at the conclusion that he never tried to kill you?

Every night action he has made has already been accounted for. None of them involved killing me - ergo my conclusion is that he never tried to kill me.

Honestly I can't see how you could conclude that Sigurd knew I was mafia, yet chose not to kill me.

[Chaotix]

....back. As expected, everybody seems too concerned with GH or CA to care much about my explanation. I will take it that everybody has accepted it, then? Or perhaps I should wait till Seamus sees it to draw that conclusion.

Anyway, TinCow seems to have provided a solid defense for GH, and CA a solid defense for himself. Unfortunately for me, this puts me at a loss as to who to vote for.

I will try to get in a vote early tomorrow or at school.

[TinCow]

Anyway, TinCow seems to have provided a solid defense for GH, and CA a solid defense for himself. Unfortunately for me, this puts me at a loss as to who to vote for.

I am slowly starting to run into logical roadblocks. I am getting a nagging feeling that only one of GH and Sigurd are pro-town, not both. However, I can't tell whether I'm just imaging this due to incomplete evidence or things I don't know, or whether it is true. Even if it is true, I'm not finding much to help me figure out which one would be the right one to trust.

I'm out for the night now. Hopefully when I wake up, someone will have fixed the holes in my various theories.

[seireikhaan]

I can't believe you guys aren't lynching GH.

[TinCow]

Alright:

1. What could be higher priority than killing a mafia family member?
2. How could he get the information on me later if he only investigates when he can't kill?
3. Can you name one of these reasons for Sigurd not to try to kill me?

Alright, now I understand what you mean. That still leaves the question of why he didn't try to kill me earlier open. If a vigilante knows for sure who a family member is, that family member will be killed ASAP.

Every night action he has made has already been accounted for. None of them involved killing me - ergo my conclusion is that he never tried to kill me.

Honestly I can't see how you could conclude that Sigurd knew I was mafia, yet chose not to kill me.

Again, my conclusion was that Sigurd did try to kill you on Night 5. If this is wrong, then my assumption about you is wrong and thus my basis for urging your lynch. I'm still not positive on whether Manfredo was the attacker or the target in the N5 write-up. I will look into it in more detail tomorrow (I'm off to bed now). If someone wants to help a bit in the meantime, go check how many pro-town roles there were in the previous game.

[glyphz]

Very much appreciate TinCow contributing even after being voted off N1, thus I have little reason to doubt your intentions and interested to see what comes out of it hopefully in this coming write-up.

And so,
Vote: CountArach

Also, I don't think GH, a protector/blocker, could be mafia. Four people did confirm being blocked on nights the mafia did 2 kills. The one where GH blocked Atpg, but failed? Don't know what happened there, unfortunately, only Andres knows...

edit: Can anyone confirm that a blocker was mafia ina previous game

[CountArach]

Why am I still being bandwagonned? I have explained why I am a bad lynch candidate - the case against me is built on incomplete/wrong evidence.

[Beefy187]

Out of 12 peoples alive three are killers (assuming that each mafia gets one killed per night)

Candidates

boudica (yet to speak this round. Apparently busy)
GeneralHankerchief (Role blocker for now)
187Beefyz Imma innocent.. Rargh!
Chaotix27
YLC
Yoyoma1910 (Yet to speak this round)
Ibn-Khaldun (Yet to speak this round)
Lord Winter
CountArach
Caius lurking both in this game and the other
Glyphz
Seamus Fermanagh kidnapped last night. Should be inactive

Now since two of the killer met each other. Wanted to kill each other. So they are enemies.

And if they don't lynch each other, they will end up in eternal stalemate unless with the help of the bigger mafias buddy. But I'm assuming they rather lynch them.

So using this theory, I think one of the mafia is CA. While his defense was adequate, according to the more experienced analyzer, he was scummy.

As atm, there is no one ales being voted (Chaotix doesn't count as Seamus cannot be the shooter), I think CA could be one of the mafia. And if not either Yoyoma or Ibn-Khaldun is.

Now if CA is indeed a mafia, then one of the rival mafia member could be amongst those who joined the CA bandwagon.

I think my theory doesn't have flaws except the fact that CA is probably innocent. If CA is indeed a mafia, then he would've revenge voted for the person who is a member of the enemy mafia.

Which makes me think that either both mafia who had a standoff were lurkers (or possibly all three of them) or mafia shook there hands.

Vote:Yoyoma

For now as he is the most active amongst the lurkers.

EDIT: I never heard of role blocker being the mafia. It could mean that role blocker is neutral then later recruited as part of the mafia
(one of them destroyed the statue and GH the old man loves the history yes?) but I think role blocker being the mafia is weird.

[Ibn-Khaldun]

That was a nice long post against CountArach and thus...

Vote: CountArach

[boudica]

I don't have anything against CA, so I won't be voting against him, but voting anything else won't make a difference at this point, so I shall vote: abstain but I don't think the bandwaggon has helped - (has all TinCow's hard work has actually been read by everyone voting?) @Khaan - I honestly don't think GH CAN be mafia - why would we lynch him?

[CountArach]

FoS: Everyone who bandwaggoned me without contributing something.

Stifling debate is scummy.

[Yoyoma1910]

Vote:Yoyoma

For now as he is the most active amongst the lurkers.

I suppose I deserve that, though I am innocent.


I've just become frustrated by the clues, and feel as though I am chasing my own tail. I have no idea who it is whatsoever.

I also just had to heave a mental brick in RL, and my synapses are toasted, so I don't know if I could really post anything constructive ATM. Therefor I think anything I publish to this thread right now would simply be distracting.


I would, however, be happy to tell you a cow joke.

[Chaotix]

I will have to Vote: Ibn-Khaldun, because once again he's jumping on the bandwagon with little reason. Gah.