Re: The Scourge of Ephesus (IN PLAY)
All right, TinCow, for the most part I agree with your analysis (and of course, its general conclusion). However, I'd like to point out a couple of flaws on your part.
Assumption: The Detective is pro-town.
Flaw: We don't know this for sure. There are at least four anti-town roles in the game as per the opening writeup, and probably more if we count all of the night actions. If all of these roles killed, then the game would be over by now. Now, I realize that this hampers part of my case considering that the Detective hasn't come out against me, so I'll provide a counterargument.
Counter-argument: OTOH, the Digging Duo accounts for a two of these non-killers. That, and we may have unknowingly gotten rid of the Detective, whether by night kill or lynching. Also, I doubt that the mafia could have had one without the Town getting a similar role.
Theory: If there was a mafioso Detective, could have been ATPG, who investigated me and possibly Seamus on consecutive nights. You'll note that Andres specifically ended my N2 results PM with a "Be careful, Guide..." which I find interesting considering the Detective's normal benevolence. ATPG then came out against me hard on Day 4, and was then removed that night be a super-killer who blasted through my protection. Possibly Manfredo acting in his vigilante role, although I might have a problem with this (see below).
Assumption: Until last night, GH has been terrible with his picks (n.b. I don't think this was made by TC but it has definitely been brought up, so I'm addressing it).
Flaw: There is so much variation in the nighttime activities that we can't know for sure. In my selections, up until last night, I've been trying to isolate certain factors and introduce new picks in order to produce new combinations of activities. I could theoretically take a night off and not block anybody to get a "control" result of sorts, but I'd rather not at this stage of the game.
Theory: So far, the Digging Duo has shown up every even-numbered night, except N6. Now, it could mean that we've removed them from action, although judging by the supernaturalness of the past couple of nights, maybe they've achieved their mission as well. OTOH, it's also possible that YLC and/or Beefy are part of the Duo.
Assumption: Sigurd is Manfredo is the vigilante is the athletic man.
Flaw: This one's a bit more complicated. First of all, it's also possible that shlin or woad were the athletic man, him disappearing sometime between Sigurd's lynch and the next day phase. I'm not denying that the athletic man is pro-town, or that he's dead. But I question whether he's also the vigilante. As the N7 writeups show, there was a Mexican standoff. The way Andres wrote it, it seemed like both people sent in orders to kill each other. Thus, I wouldn't be so certain that our vigilante is out of action yet. This is also the second time this has happened, the other being the N5 writeup when the target seemed to be ready for an attack. Both times the attacker was "the man in shadows", or the same person that offed ATPG.
Theory: I think these two people have identified each other's roles and have desperately been trying to off each other. Both times they met, they both sent in orders to kill the other, which were cancelled out.
Alternative theory: The vigilante is not dead, but he's also not the athletic man. After all, in Andres's initial PM to me he said that attempts on my life would fail under certain conditions. Maybe the vig's PM has the same "power". This explains the first failed attack. The second failed attack, the vig seemed to be ready, and thus submitted kill orders for his attacker, which was cancelled out.
Another flaw: If Sigurd is Manfredo, and Manfredo "located a mafioso" in N5 as TC suggests... how? I blocked him that night.
Conclusion: I do not believe Sigurd to be Manfredo, and I do not believe Manfredo to be the vigilante to be one in the same. Considering Andres's penchant for having pro-town roles run the lynches, the athletic man probably had powers, but it was somebody else. Either that, or the athletic man's still around, just not running the lynches anymore. After all, at the end of N5 Andres hinted that the athletic man's role as lynch leader was just about over. Also, Sigurd specifically stated that he:
a) believed me, and
b) was ONLY a townie.
If he was more than a townie and still believed me, why didn't he get in contact with me? I could have provided some protection and we could have coordinated our efforts. I'm more inclined to believe that Sigurd was just a townie (if not a mafioso) and thus, there is no special reasoning for his vote on CountArach.
Now, CA may very well be guilty, but IMHO it's not because of what TC and Sigurd had said. Instead, let's look at the previous couple of kills.
In N5 and N6, Quintus and shlin were killed, respectively. Both times their killer engaged them in conversation and then shot them in the head. This makes it extremely likely that they were killed by the same person, and that that person was killing based off of my previous blocks, since both people were pretty much exonerated due to a combination of my blocking/the number of night kills.
I saw the pattern and anticipated that they would go after Seamus next, which they did. Since his failed kill writeup is extremely different from anything else, it's hard to say exactly what happened, but you'll notice that El Diablo was killed with two bullets as opposed to the customary one bullet to the head.
Thus, it's pretty clear that at least one person is basing a significant amount of their gameplay, at least at night, on my actions. Does this mean that boudica, who is also seemingly exonerated, is next? Possibly, and the mafioso has to figure out for himself whether I'm going to protect her tonight.
The question, though, is how much they are also basing their play in the daytime off my actions. Speaking from experience, I as a mafioso try to construct two distinctly separate personalities for a game: my nighttime personality, which is my true self, almost like a general reviewing tactics, or a scientist trying to predict probable outcomes based on the choices I make. Then, there is my day personality, which I keep separate from my nighttime self and is basically "how do I not get lynched this round?" (and, in addition, if applicable, how do I also set myself up for a long-term run in this game?)
I think the mafioso has demonstrated that he is a very smart player in this game and is probably doing the same thing, thus probably for the most part ignoring my whole daytime drama in the game. I thus look for a bandwagoner on CountArach this round. Normally this would be IK, but his behavior is pretty consistent right now. There's also glyphz, but by my theories at night (one block, one kill, two actions cancelling each other out), he's innocent.
We're left, then, with either those who have voted for IK or the those who have yet to vote. Out of everyone alive:
boudica
GeneralHankerchief
187Beefyz
Chaotix27
YLC
Yoyoma1910
Ibn-Khaldun
Lord Winter
CountArach
Caius
Glyphz
Seamus Fermanagh
I believe boudica, myself, IK, Caius (inactivity), glyphz, and Seamus to be innocent, leaving:
187Beefyz
Chaotix27
YLC
Yoyoma1910
Lord Winter
CountArach
Now it gets a bit harder. Seamus has already put pressure on Chaotix, who has claimed real life as a reason for his absence. Considering the amount of night actions, I also wonder if he's had time to send in things at night. Seamus makes a good point about Chaotix's "Day phase" comment, but I'm not sure.
Beefy refrained from jumping on the CA bandwagon, but his play in the Golden Rule serves as a wake-up call that he is a skilled mafioso. He was blocked on a night when there were three actions, including two kills.
YLC is an interesting case. A few nights ago, when it was believed that he had some influence in the mafia's kills, he PM'd me suggesting I block himself and boudica to see if I could get a successful protection and also clear himself. Now, his intentions could be good, but he also could have done it to throw a bunch of people off-track, including me (he could have gone another way at night). For the record, I took half his advice, blocking boudica but not him. I eventually blocked him a night or two later along with Beefy.
Yoyoma is also claiming inactivity, and I think he's telling the truth. I don't see him getting in a night order in on a night when there were four actions.
Lord Winter is starting a new trend for him in this game and Chicago Soiree in which he's actively contributing. I can't really get a read on him.
CountArach has skillfully defended himself from TC's (and by extension, Sigurd's) attacks, but I would expect this from CA. I don't think he's innocent, but as a result of me not believing Sigurd's being a pro-town power role, don't think he's guilty either. I will leave him alone for now, since a vote at this stage would mean the kiss of death for him.
To me, it all comes back to YLC and that PM:
Why did he send this? Maybe because he had the town's best interests at heart, but maybe also to totally throw me off. I'll note that he voted for CA this round, but has also been paying a ton of attention to my little saga in this thread. Earlier, YLC was under some suspicion for having influence over kills. Is he the type that slips under the radar when under pressure or does he try to turn things around and actively get on people's good side?Originally Posted by YLC
Wise choice, and thank you for considering my rather rash proposalI don't plan to tell anybody who I will block until the night is over for obvious reasons, but I will keep your plan in mind.
From what I know of him, it's likely the latter, although I'd appreciate someone giving me his Gameroom history.
Unvote: Abstain
Vote: YLC
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