The Scourge of Ephesus [Concluded]

[GeneralHankerchief]

All right, TinCow, for the most part I agree with your analysis (and of course, its general conclusion). However, I'd like to point out a couple of flaws on your part.

Assumption: The Detective is pro-town.
Flaw: We don't know this for sure. There are at least four anti-town roles in the game as per the opening writeup, and probably more if we count all of the night actions. If all of these roles killed, then the game would be over by now. Now, I realize that this hampers part of my case considering that the Detective hasn't come out against me, so I'll provide a counterargument.
Counter-argument: OTOH, the Digging Duo accounts for a two of these non-killers. That, and we may have unknowingly gotten rid of the Detective, whether by night kill or lynching. Also, I doubt that the mafia could have had one without the Town getting a similar role.
Theory: If there was a mafioso Detective, could have been ATPG, who investigated me and possibly Seamus on consecutive nights. You'll note that Andres specifically ended my N2 results PM with a "Be careful, Guide..." which I find interesting considering the Detective's normal benevolence. ATPG then came out against me hard on Day 4, and was then removed that night be a super-killer who blasted through my protection. Possibly Manfredo acting in his vigilante role, although I might have a problem with this (see below).

Assumption: Until last night, GH has been terrible with his picks (n.b. I don't think this was made by TC but it has definitely been brought up, so I'm addressing it).
Flaw: There is so much variation in the nighttime activities that we can't know for sure. In my selections, up until last night, I've been trying to isolate certain factors and introduce new picks in order to produce new combinations of activities. I could theoretically take a night off and not block anybody to get a "control" result of sorts, but I'd rather not at this stage of the game.
Theory: So far, the Digging Duo has shown up every even-numbered night, except N6. Now, it could mean that we've removed them from action, although judging by the supernaturalness of the past couple of nights, maybe they've achieved their mission as well. OTOH, it's also possible that YLC and/or Beefy are part of the Duo.

Assumption: Sigurd is Manfredo is the vigilante is the athletic man.
Flaw: This one's a bit more complicated. First of all, it's also possible that shlin or woad were the athletic man, him disappearing sometime between Sigurd's lynch and the next day phase. I'm not denying that the athletic man is pro-town, or that he's dead. But I question whether he's also the vigilante. As the N7 writeups show, there was a Mexican standoff. The way Andres wrote it, it seemed like both people sent in orders to kill each other. Thus, I wouldn't be so certain that our vigilante is out of action yet. This is also the second time this has happened, the other being the N5 writeup when the target seemed to be ready for an attack. Both times the attacker was "the man in shadows", or the same person that offed ATPG.
Theory: I think these two people have identified each other's roles and have desperately been trying to off each other. Both times they met, they both sent in orders to kill the other, which were cancelled out.
Alternative theory: The vigilante is not dead, but he's also not the athletic man. After all, in Andres's initial PM to me he said that attempts on my life would fail under certain conditions. Maybe the vig's PM has the same "power". This explains the first failed attack. The second failed attack, the vig seemed to be ready, and thus submitted kill orders for his attacker, which was cancelled out.
Another flaw: If Sigurd is Manfredo, and Manfredo "located a mafioso" in N5 as TC suggests... how? I blocked him that night.
Conclusion: I do not believe Sigurd to be Manfredo, and I do not believe Manfredo to be the vigilante to be one in the same. Considering Andres's penchant for having pro-town roles run the lynches, the athletic man probably had powers, but it was somebody else. Either that, or the athletic man's still around, just not running the lynches anymore. After all, at the end of N5 Andres hinted that the athletic man's role as lynch leader was just about over. Also, Sigurd specifically stated that he:
a) believed me, and
b) was ONLY a townie.
If he was more than a townie and still believed me, why didn't he get in contact with me? I could have provided some protection and we could have coordinated our efforts. I'm more inclined to believe that Sigurd was just a townie (if not a mafioso) and thus, there is no special reasoning for his vote on CountArach.

Now, CA may very well be guilty, but IMHO it's not because of what TC and Sigurd had said. Instead, let's look at the previous couple of kills.

In N5 and N6, Quintus and shlin were killed, respectively. Both times their killer engaged them in conversation and then shot them in the head. This makes it extremely likely that they were killed by the same person, and that that person was killing based off of my previous blocks, since both people were pretty much exonerated due to a combination of my blocking/the number of night kills.

I saw the pattern and anticipated that they would go after Seamus next, which they did. Since his failed kill writeup is extremely different from anything else, it's hard to say exactly what happened, but you'll notice that El Diablo was killed with two bullets as opposed to the customary one bullet to the head.

Thus, it's pretty clear that at least one person is basing a significant amount of their gameplay, at least at night, on my actions. Does this mean that boudica, who is also seemingly exonerated, is next? Possibly, and the mafioso has to figure out for himself whether I'm going to protect her tonight.

The question, though, is how much they are also basing their play in the daytime off my actions. Speaking from experience, I as a mafioso try to construct two distinctly separate personalities for a game: my nighttime personality, which is my true self, almost like a general reviewing tactics, or a scientist trying to predict probable outcomes based on the choices I make. Then, there is my day personality, which I keep separate from my nighttime self and is basically "how do I not get lynched this round?" (and, in addition, if applicable, how do I also set myself up for a long-term run in this game?)

I think the mafioso has demonstrated that he is a very smart player in this game and is probably doing the same thing, thus probably for the most part ignoring my whole daytime drama in the game. I thus look for a bandwagoner on CountArach this round. Normally this would be IK, but his behavior is pretty consistent right now. There's also glyphz, but by my theories at night (one block, one kill, two actions cancelling each other out), he's innocent.

We're left, then, with either those who have voted for IK or the those who have yet to vote. Out of everyone alive:

boudica
GeneralHankerchief
187Beefyz
Chaotix27
YLC
Yoyoma1910
Ibn-Khaldun
Lord Winter
CountArach
Caius
Glyphz
Seamus Fermanagh

I believe boudica, myself, IK, Caius (inactivity), glyphz, and Seamus to be innocent, leaving:

187Beefyz
Chaotix27
YLC
Yoyoma1910
Lord Winter
CountArach

Now it gets a bit harder. Seamus has already put pressure on Chaotix, who has claimed real life as a reason for his absence. Considering the amount of night actions, I also wonder if he's had time to send in things at night. Seamus makes a good point about Chaotix's "Day phase" comment, but I'm not sure.

Beefy refrained from jumping on the CA bandwagon, but his play in the Golden Rule serves as a wake-up call that he is a skilled mafioso. He was blocked on a night when there were three actions, including two kills.

YLC is an interesting case. A few nights ago, when it was believed that he had some influence in the mafia's kills, he PM'd me suggesting I block himself and boudica to see if I could get a successful protection and also clear himself. Now, his intentions could be good, but he also could have done it to throw a bunch of people off-track, including me (he could have gone another way at night). For the record, I took half his advice, blocking boudica but not him. I eventually blocked him a night or two later along with Beefy.

Yoyoma is also claiming inactivity, and I think he's telling the truth. I don't see him getting in a night order in on a night when there were four actions.

Lord Winter is starting a new trend for him in this game and Chicago Soiree in which he's actively contributing. I can't really get a read on him.

CountArach has skillfully defended himself from TC's (and by extension, Sigurd's) attacks, but I would expect this from CA. I don't think he's innocent, but as a result of me not believing Sigurd's being a pro-town power role, don't think he's guilty either. I will leave him alone for now, since a vote at this stage would mean the kiss of death for him.

To me, it all comes back to YLC and that PM:

GH, I need you to do something for me. If you have no better targets tonight, please block me and boudica. I think boudica maybe mafia, and I'd like your help in confirming it, and as a bonus you may block me - I'm not, but if I'm cleared I'll be more help to the town. So far, the "SK" has listened to me each night on whom I wish dead - killing RR and then ATPG in row, and I hope to be able to manipulate them into killing another suspect. If at some point they don't, and you knowing I am innocent, they lose their cover, and we can then safely lynch the target I "proposed" to the SK.

Thoughts?

I don't plan to tell anybody who I will block until the night is over for obvious reasons, but I will keep your plan in mind.

Wise choice, and thank you for considering my rather rash proposal

Why did he send this? Maybe because he had the town's best interests at heart, but maybe also to totally throw me off. I'll note that he voted for CA this round, but has also been paying a ton of attention to my little saga in this thread. Earlier, YLC was under some suspicion for having influence over kills. Is he the type that slips under the radar when under pressure or does he try to turn things around and actively get on people's good side?

From what I know of him, it's likely the latter, although I'd appreciate someone giving me his Gameroom history.

Unvote: Abstain
Vote: YLC

[GeneralHankerchief]

Also, I really, really hope Andres does a commentary for this game.

[Andres]

Also, I really, really hope Andres does a commentary for this game.

Eh, hm, huh...

Like the one I did for Taormina?

Lazy Andres!

[Beefy187]

I love you too ATPG.. No matter how cruel you are

-Not enough contribution

Well I tried. And this is my best..

-Voting for you twice in the beginning

First one was a random vote. One for you being in the middle of the sign up list and two because I prefer kebabs over Pizza. Second one was a resting vote until I find a better option. But I couldn't make it to change the vote because of the different time zone.

-Calls for Kommodus

I didn't call for him. I just said I miss him. Player leaving the gameroom is not a pleasant thing. Thus why I was happy for Gaius and takas return along with other vets.

-Over use of smilies

Its how I post. I don't see how that leads to mafia activities

-Lurks

My activity is yes.. rather low. But I still posted everyday. I normally only post on the morning (GMT+9) checks the gameroom. Front room. Backroom. Diplomacy. EB forum. Gameroom again. Facebook. Gameroom. Sports news. Gameroom. Study then EB. EB normally gets me to lunch. Afternoon I usually go biking for fitness, studies again, then finally gets back to gameroom. Then dinner. Then TV. If the TV is boring then gameroom.

I don't lurk. I just don't check the gameroom often after the morning sesh

-Overly defensive

Am I? I thought I got rid of that..

-Blindly trusts GH

I did get a pm on the night when GH claimed to have protected me or whatever he does. Old man telling boring story. Then I fell or sleep. That night all three kills were on I believe. Which clears me. And I cannot see how Roleblocker can also be a mafia. I've never seen such thing in other mafias before. With only couple more lynching oppotunities available, I think leaving GH gives us the best chance.

-Being a crappy townie and all

Cannot agree more. While I was thankful for the nomination in the best gameroom player, I really don't think I deserve it.

.................................................................................................... ..................................................

Now that I got that done. I have to disagree with most of the things you said.

Firstly TinCow was lynched. While he makes a plausible theories, he might be mafia. He might be manipulating us.

Secondly, I havn't read all the posting before CAs lynch because I was doing other stuff. But from what I recall, three players bandwagoned CA without much reasoning. One of them is Ibn-khaldun. Yes he havn't dominated discussions. But he followed a easy bandwagon. For me that is much more scummy.

I tried. And I voted Yoyoma. Yes it was a crap theory. Yes I shouldn't have played migration campaign to Messalia and get bored and started another KH campaign, spamming Spartans before the lynch write ups. And if this is overly defensive for you, just lynch me. I have failed the town and for that, I deserve death.

EDIT: And there is no way I am helping to lynch GH or boudica.

[Ibn-Khaldun]

One of them is Ibn-khaldun. Yes he havn't dominated discussions. But he followed a easy bandwagon. For me that is much more scummy.

No, that's not scummy. I followed TC's long analysis and it seemed that CA is guilty. And bandwagoning part? It's how townies behave. I think you watch movies. In movies it takes only one person to create an angry mob to kill someone. That's how people work. Give them a good reason(or not that good, it doesn't matter) and they will lynch someone.

[Beefy187]

No, that's not scummy. I followed TC's long analysis and it seemed that CA is guilty. And bandwagoning part? It's how townies behave. I think you watch movies. In movies it takes only one person to create an angry mob to kill someone. That's how people work. Give them a good reason(or not that good, it doesn't matter) and they will lynch someone.

Shush you.. I needed something to counter him

Ill go read what actually happened now.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Beefy, I am not 100% on you. That's why you're 4th on the list.

If you redeem yourself by helping the living townies get the ones above you on the list, I think we can risk it. You deserve a win as mafia anyways, right? LOL

Depending on how the chips fall, we may have to lynch you anyway. But I would encourage you to follow my advice, no matter how "cruel" I've been. You know I have great respect for you, but if you ever were mafia, your behavior this game would exemplify it, from what I know of you.

Convince me otherwise. Help town get the REAL scumbags.


EDIT: AND YOURE NOT A CRAPPY TOWNIE. This game's performance was spotty at best, but you do well elsewhere.

[TinCow]

Interesting ideas, GH. I disagree with two of your theories.

1) The two 'Mexican standoff' situations were two people submitting orders to attack each other.

Night 5 Standoff:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

A man was hiding in the shadows when he saw his target slowly walking into the Odeion.

He jumped out of his hiding spot.

To his surprise, the target wasn't surprised.

"I'm not so easy to kill, you fool!"

The target kicked the attacker on his right knee. A fist in his face put him down. Another kick on his right hand and the silenced gun was floating through the air.

The target took some distance, allowing the attacker to get up again.

"You're good. Very good," the attacker said, nodding respectfully to his target.

He then quickly turned around, picked up his gun and ran away, yelling:

"But you won't be so lucky next time!"

"Next time... Next time you die..." the target said.

Night 7 Standoff:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

A man was walking in the vicinity of the ancient temple of Artemis.

He saw a shadow near a pillar and quickly jumped aside, drawing his .44 Magnum.

The man in the shadows was pointing his silenced gun at his target while he was staring at the .44 Magnum.

"Stalemate," I guess, the target said, cold as ice.

"So it seems," his attacker answered.

Both put away their guns and left the scene.

Notice in both of these that the person hiding in the shadows is specifically described as "attacker" and the other person is specifically described as "target." This looks very much like the "attacker" is ambushing that "target" but the target cannot be killed due to skill or luck. This is similar to the previous game, when Sigurd (mafioso) was attacked by another mafioso and survived due to the abilities of his role. In such a situation, the attacker would know the target's identity, but not the other way around.

In reviewing this, I also noticed something that I had missed before. On Night 5, the attacker "picked up his gun and ran away." This was earlier described as a silenced pistol. In the Day 6 write-up, the old man (you) suddenly whips out a silenced gun to execute the lynch. I had previously assumed that it was obtained on Night 5 after being dropped. Now, thanks to being focused on these actions more, it seems clear it was not possible for you to have gotten the gun on N5.

So, GH, how do you explain your ability to suddenly produce a silenced pistol during the D6 lynch? Andres does not include details like this for no reason. If you obtained it through innocent means, it should be somewhere in one of the write-ups, but I cannot find it. If you did not obtain it through one of the write-ups, then it's likely that it belongs to you and you are a killer in some manner.

2) Sigurd is not Manfredo or the athletic man?

This is absurd reasoning on your part, and smacks of an attempt to discredit him. First, you claim that shlin or w&f could have been the athletic man. Yet this does not explain why the athletic man did not execute the lynch himself on D5, nor why he was so surprised by the lynching. It seems very specific to me that Sigurd was the athletic man. In addition, Sigurd hasn't exactly been very active in this game. Yet he managed to be the first person to ever mention that the athletic man was a vigilante and then managed to slip in a suggestion that the vigilante was pro-town. This is not a coincidence. Sigurd was planting ideas about the vigilante role for future use, probably if he decided to reveal.

Indeed, in re-reading Sigurd's posts once again, while he did support you early on, his posts turn heavily against you as the game progressed. I omitted mentioning these to see how you would respond, and you simply accepted them as I stated them. I actually now believe that it is YOU that Sigurd wants to be lynched, not CountArach. His attack on CountArach was a one-off thing, while he kept coming back to you over and over again, with increasing frequency as the game went on.

I also did not give you a blank slate of innocence in my analysis posts, yet your happily cite and gobble up all of the 'GH is good' bits that I wrote, while completely ignoring everything scumtastic about yourself. This does not seem like the actions of a good townie to me. Combined with my revelation that you couldn't have gotten the silenced pistol on N5, my opinion of you has drastically changed.

I apologize to everyone for the 180 I'm pulling here, but GH's response, especially about Sigurd, just doesn't add up. There have been fishy things about GH from the start, and instead of being resolved and making sense, they just keep adding up and getting less consistent. Something is wrong about GH's role, and that kind of thing is never good for the town.

I heavily recommend lynching GH immediately.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Just a note to everybody that I am forming a defense, although it will take some time.

[glyphz]

Okay, I'm being more open now about the possibility of GH being scum, esp. this 'gun out of nowhere' case. However, the protect/block ability is the only thing that can thwart a killer's kill order, and gives town more time and lynch chances (correct me if I'm not right here). If we are to lynch him I suggest later rather than now, especially since there's still at least 2 killers out there.

But, if we can prove that GH is coordinating his night actions w/ murders, then I'm game on lynching him right now.
edit: em attempting to look into the matter.

[TinCow]

The main reason for my originally saying GH was probably innocent was his confirmed night abilities. He has proven that he can bring two people per night to a secret chamber and bore them to sleep. We know this and it has been confirmed. However, what we do not know is exactly what goes on when GH puts these people to sleep.

GH claims that this is a role block AND protection role. Yet there have been two attacks on people that GH was supposed to be protecting at night. The first attack completely succeeded and ATPG was killed. The second attack (Seamus) seems to have been completely unaffected by GH's actions whatsoever. Thus, GH is lying about his ability to protect people.

So, what could he be doing? One option is that he is a mafia detective. He snags two people at night, bores them to sleep, then rifles through their belongings looking for something. This type of action would be useless without the ability to kill, which GH may or may not have. However, what if GH has a partner? Or, better yet, what if GH only needs to find and kill a single person?

Let's take a look at something else in the write-ups that no one has touched on before. This is from Night 4:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

A shady figure strided over the sands of the theater.

He looked around him and noticed the enveloppe.

The man picked it up and read the short note inside it.

He grinned and walked away, calmly.

This is not just for color, something happened here. Someone put something in the envelope and dropped it for another person to pick up. What goes into an envelope? A letter. Letters have writing on them. Writing is information. This was an information drop. Could this be the result of GH locating a good target and then communicating the identity of that target to his partner? Is it a coincidence that the 'Mexican Standoff' attacks start the following night?

There's more as well. GH's character is obviously very concerned about what is going on with the statues. He is upset when a statue is destroyed and he leads people at night to a secret chamber. This is significant, and it seems very heavily connected to the role that was destroying the statues and which now seems to be manifesting as some kind of evil spirit who possessed Seamus last night. Yet, GH's claimed role contains NO information of any kind about any of this stuff:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The Guide

You are the guide, mentioned in the opening scene.

You have a perfect knowledge of the Ancient City of Ephesus.

Each night, you are allowed to protect two players. When you do so, you’ll hide them in the secret tunnel between the ancient library and the ancient brothel. When you protect a player, you’ll also block his/her actions for that night.

Each night, you have to pm me the names of the people you’re going to protect. Your pm has to reach me before the night ends.

Assination attempts on you might fail under certain circumstances.

Good luck!

This seems wrong. The way his role is written, he should have some major part in this supernatural skullduggery that is going on, yet the role PM he produced has nothing whatsoever. Look at this game, look at the setting, look at the write-ups. There is essentially no likelihood whatsoever that there are any plain old vanilla roles here, yet GH is claiming a role that simply blocks and protects. Not only does this not fit into the game as it is written, he can't even protect well, as conclusively shown by ATPG's death. It seems very likely that GH has heavily modified his own role PM and is faking what he is doing.

Indeed, I now doubt GH's claim that he can even block people. I bet he does nothing of the sort. I bet GH added that so that he could 'block' his mafioso partner and clear them of any wrongdoing. I think that if we look at who GH has 'blocked' we will find his partner.

This is who he has 'blocked':
Night 1: Sigurd (lynched) and Quintus (killed)
Night 2: Reenk (killed) and Tevash (lynched)
Night 3: Seamus and shlin (killed).
Night 4: ATPG (killed) and boudica.
Night 5: Sigurd (lynched) and boudica.
Night 6: YLC and Beefy.
Night 7: Seamus and glyphz.

So, of all those 'blocked', only Seamus, boudica, YLC, Beefy, and glyphz are still alive. Of these, only two, Seamus and boudica, have been 'blocked' twice. Interesting, especially given the most recent GH/Seamus evidence they so kindly provided.

The Night 7 results are posted at 16:51 EST. At 16:52 (one minute later) GH posts his 'success' claim, but it take him until 16:56 (four full minutes later) to post the results PM. GH's "Score!" post indicates that he 'knows' the protection worked. However, the write-up description reads like Seamus wasn't protected at all. So, if GH knew a protection worked, he read it in a results PM. So, he had this PM and was able to read it and celebrate about it within ONE MINUTE of the night results being posted, but it then took him another FOUR MINUTES to copy and paste the results PM? No way, those four minutes was him fabricating a results PM or double-checking a previous forgery for errors.

Seamus then conveniently busts out with this gem saying that GH told him he was going to be protected THREE MINUTES before Andres posted they night results. Why in the world would GH ever disclose this information? First, GH could never know the exact moment when Andres would precisely post the night results, so there is no way he could have properly timed this thing to get there before it was too late for Seamus to change his own night orders. Second, there's no reason whatsoever to inform Seamus beforehand. The only reason to do so would be to prove to Seamus that he's the person who's doing the protecting/blocking, but that's the one thing that absolutely everyone in this game has already accepted! The thing that was in doubt was whether GH's actions were effective, not whether he could do them, and GH didn't need to disclose his night actions to someone beforehand to prove their effectiveness. GH is extremely smart. He would not have disclosed this info to Seamus unless it was crucial for his survival, and in this case it was not.

GH is some kind of mafioso and Seamus is his partner. Lynch them both.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Yeah, I'll get to this latest bit in my defense as well.

[TinCow]

Apologies for hammering you like this in multiple posts. I know it's hard to respond to and irksome. It's the result of stream-of-consciousness posting which I've been doing for the last 24 hours. I will try and reign myself in and provide all my arguments in a single post in the future. Again, sorry for the hassle caused by my posting format.

[GeneralHankerchief]

On Sigurd:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

First of all, let me just say that in my analysis, I did not reread Sigurd's posts. I mainly focused on Andres's writeups and the the possible connections focused on each of them. However, since your attack on me is pretty much focused off of Sigurd's reasoning, I went back and looked at all of his posts.

Let's go into this keeping in mind that you have two beliefs: That Sigurd is a pro-town power role, and that he has been pointing to me for a while now. My beliefs regarding Sigurd are that he's either a plain townie or a villain; I'm not sure of which.

Sorry about the late participation gents and lady,
Due to org database failure I was not able to participate yesterday.

Having a quick look at the game development, I must say that Askthepizzaguy, Tincow and the Reinkmaster is deliberately wanting attention.
I don't know what to make of it yet.

One thing I am sure of is when the Reinkmaster says he has a role, he usually does.
He has pointed to Tevashzat and accused him of being Mafioso. I can't see that Tevash has countered this allegation.
I also notice that Yoyoma is deliberately acting a tourist and needs to be checked out by any investigator in the game. Same with White_eyes?

I am not a follower of paranoia and getting rid of players based on previous games. Getting TinCow for his previous actions in the first round is just mean. True, he has put himself in the spotlight with his opening remarks, but Reeink claims a powerful role and names Tevashzat as a Mafioso.

Why not act on this? This would be the logic thing in a first round
(BTW.. why not show support for your own allegations Reeink?).

vote:Tevashzat

Summary: Sigurd's first post after the game has started. He notes his absence, and then diving into the Reenk/Tevash argument, takes Reenk's side and votes Tevash.
Context: As Sigurd focused his argument on two people who have not been alive for a long time, this post means little to our current discussion.

I am still interested by what the Reenkster has up his sleeve.
He talks about primary and secondary objectives and that he has completed his secondary objective.
He also claims that he was blocked in a round with no kills ... Does that mean he killed on night 1?

Looking at the writeups it could seem that Ares was killed by Günner and Fehrad depending on how much influence the killers have on their orders.
Why did they dig up the corpse after killing him in the first round?

Maybe Reeink Roink needs to get Tevashzat lynhced to reach a objective?
If that is the case I am game. Anythingto foil the plans of the mafia.
vote:Tevashzat

Summary: Two days later, he pops into the thread again. He makes a comment on the writeups, and then votes Tevash again.
Context: Slightly more important than the first post because he talked about the writeups. However, he mentions nothing about an athletic man, vigilante, etc. If you side with TinCow, it could mean that he's just trying to make heads and tails of things in the thread. If you side with me, it could mean that he's just doing his job as a townie and pointing things out/using it to serve as confusion.

Yeah I am definitely here... while working mind you (need to read most of the posts in here, which might be beneficial later in the game).

Your case against the General seems to be spot on. I am eager to hear his reply. I have also noticed that he no longer complains about not being picked as mafioso like he did in Midgard II. I am thinking that he finally received one in one of the games he plays.
He did say in the other game (Golden rule) that he will take a look at Ephesus later today. He usually throws a romp if we group our votes against him and if he is mafia.

It is however a bit early in the game IMO for any lengthy analysis.
Personally I would vote off YLC for even implying to have the life of RR in his hands. But let's try yours and TinCow's theory first. GH it is.

vote:GeneralHankiechief

Summary: Two more days later, after ATPG has just posted his long case against me, before I've had a chance to respond/reveal. His reasoning has already been discussed at length.
Context: Okay TC, you said that Sigurd was pointing at CA and then said he moved on to me. Now, while I write this I haven't looked at his later posts yet, but so far this doesn't seem to be the truth. Also of note, he flat-out says that YLC should be lynched. This goes well with my theory - don't forget about this when, in the future, you base your vote off what Sigurd said about him suggesting we vote people who he's accused in the past.

Woah ...

Sorry about not participating at a crucial point in the game yesterday.

Good to see others making sure that GH was not lynched. I too got an obscure PM from Andres on the first night about listening to a boring old man.
I didn't know what to make of it, but now I know.

Summary: He apologizes for not being online to unvote me and confirms my role.
Context: Not much. In this post he definitely believes in me.

I had to quickly read over the thread again to freshen up on things.
The night reports from Andres were particularly interesting (hard to find without a separate thread or links in the OP).

Night one #102
Night two #259
Night three #317
Night four #428

On the first night there was only one kill by a silenced gun. There is also something about a hysterical man and blades.

Second night has no kills, but yet again the hysterical man whet stoning a sword which is incidentally dropped and later picked up by the athletic man. Also, he seems to talk to someone or is schizophrenic. Two men digging up the graves of the dead looking for something and lose a gun which is later picked up by the athletic man.

Third night had three kills. Hysterical man destroys the statue of Atemis.
The shadow kills RR accusing him of seeking a package.
Two kills by men with silenced guns.

Fourth night had one kill. No mention of the hysterical man. A new character (shady figure) finds an envelope. Two dark figures dig up the graves of the dead.
The shadow kills pizzaguy implying some shady business going on.

My initial thought after reading the night reports is that we are possibly dealing with several active night roles. I have coloured them based on alignment. Neutral (green) until we can determine if they are good or bad for town.

Night one:
1 gun killer
1 crazy guy.

Night two
2 guys (digging up bodies)
1 crazy guy
1 companion of crazy guy

Night three
1 crazy guy
1 shadow killer
2 gun killers

Night four
1 shady guy
1 shadow killer
2 guys (digging up bodies)


All in all 8 characters.

I suspect however that the two gun killers and the grave diggers are the same. They are taking every other night off to dig up the bodies they shot the night before. They are obviously looking for something inside the bodies and need to kill them in order to be able to check them.

This brings us down to 6 characters.
We know that GH is the old guy and that the athletic guy has a sword and a gun. Could it be that the athletic guy is the shadow killer?
The total should then be around 7 characters.

Crazy guy and apprentice = Bernard and Juliette
2 guys with guns and showels = Günner and Fehrad
Shadow killer = Manfredo
Shady guy = secret role…
Old blocker guy (GH)

We also suspect that RR, Tevash and pizzaguy possibly had roles. But there were 2 diggers on night 4 which according to my theory counts for both Günner and Fehrad being alive.
It could also mean that even if we did kill/lynch bad guys, the bad guys are recruiting.
Could it be that YLC is the shadow killer?

My vote this round goes to CountArach. He was quite active in the first part of this game, but has since dropped off the planet. He mentioned a hectic week at work, but his initial analysis makes me suspect he is in the informed minority. He called Bernard a Godfather type. I can’t see where he would get that idea.

Vote: CountArach.

Summary: Here we go, Sigurd's main analysis post. I'll admit I haven't seen this for a while. Again, he tries to make sense of the writeups. I can't really fault him for this, as it's what most of us have been doing now in the later rounds. If you believe TC, Sigurd could be hinting toward his role here.
Context: If Sigurd is Manfredo/vigilante/shadow killer, would he make such a blatant suggestion saying as much? Here he votes CA with an out-of-the-blue reasoning after a lengthy analysis that seemed to be going elsewhere. I would ask how he would know CA's role if he was the Vig, but since you, TC, now think he was going after me, how would he know my alignment if he was the Vig? It's my opinion that he either didn't find anything concrete to go with in the analysis and voted based off thread behavior, or that he was again trying to fool us.

I hope there are more than two play styles to my name. I try to act a little differently in every game I am in. However, as you point out, my post count is low. I am in more than one game this time. One reason is trying to be the responsible AM. Ya know, to give support to the games and their hosts. This is a new experience for me and I find it is stretching my capability.
I suspected you had a role in this game as did pizzaguy and hewas right. A GH without a role usually makes more noise. I would have unvoted you had I been on.

I might be a candidate, but you and the rest of us needs to compare what we know to what we learn trough the night reports.
You protected me and Quintus on the first night and me and boudica this night.

On the first night there was only one kill, most likely by one of the mafia. Compared to the other nights we lack two killers; the shadow vigilante and the other mafioso.
This night lacked only the shadow vigilante. There was the murder of Quintus, which would put the suspicion on me for being the other mafia that were blocked on night one.
This last night had two attempts with guns. I suspect that YLC is the vigilante aka the athletic man and that he possibly was attacked this night by the second mafioso. YLC's night action was canceled as he dodged the killer. You mentioned something about a report from Andres and that it said nothing of value. Do you suspect it will say something important if you in fact do investigate a killer?

I will not retaliate against you since your role is by far more valuable for the town than my vanilla townie role. I can do my analysis dead as alive. Being killed by mafia is the best option since I will be more or less confirmed innocent.
I do however question the decision of not even trying to take you out as you are a threat to any bad guy in this game. Are you communicating with players outside this game? Do you discuss with others your choice of blocks? Have you learned that attempts have been made on the players you protect?

We need to figure out if the athletic man/shadow killer, which I think is YLC, is bad for town. Up until now he has killed twice. Does he investigate on the nights he is not killing? that would count for night one and two and five.
I firmly believe that the two gun killers are very much alive as can be seen in last night's report.
Glyphz has a point. Seireikhaan is not active at all in this game and he was inactive, I think, before he started his game.
I get the feeling he is intentionally keeping a low profile. Is he hiding a pro-town role or a mafia role?
vote: seireikhaan

Summary: Sigurd's main defense to my attack. Parts of this have also been discussed at length. Again, he points to trying to figure things out through the night reports. Pretty consistent behavior.
Context: I pointed this out in my initial analysis post but you didn't mention it in your follow-up, TC. He specifically reiterated that he was a townie, and that he believed me. These two beliefs and his actions don't add up if he's a power pro-town role. Finally, once again, he points to YLC but votes elsewhere.

Yet, you made a veiled threat to Reeink Roink about an ability to end his life via vote or some night ability. Was this just a bluff?

Summary: YLC responds to Sigurd's grilling of him and says he's just a townie. Sigurd grills him some more.
Context: As my high school gym teacher used to say, "thimk".

Care to explain? Is this an ability you have in this game, or am I just not able to interpret what you mean. Drilling someone during the night ... ehm, I get a disturbing picture here -

Summary: More grilling. For the record, the post that prompted this one is here.
Context: Duh.

Sorry it was not common to me...
But my question remains unanswered; is the vigilante bad for town?
It seems he got rid of some shady players (no offense RR and Pizza). That Pizza has opted to drop out of the discussion should be some basis to indicate a pro-town alignment for the vigilante. RR will continue to seed doubts and smokescreens if he was a bad guy and would continue to be helpful if he was pro town.

Summary: Sigurd's final salvo in the YLC thing. Here, he suggests that the Vig might not be bad for the town.
Context: You score a point here. But it could also just be Sigurd being a good townie and thinking out loud.

I have checked the game in question. I must admit I didn't remember it when I made my comments. I stand corrected. I made an erroneous evaluation of your track record.

Yes I agreed with pizzaguy, thinking Andres would have favourized you as mafioso. It had been suficient time since your last comments of not being a mafioso. My brain told me that Andres could have given you a sinister role.

Still... I would hold on to my claim that I can't be mafia. The mafia hits were all in the night report. And no block of a killer were mentioned there. You are lynching an innocent with three votes. I am more suspicious of seireikhann now that he has opted to abstain as if waiting to cast the final vote on me should he tie.

[edit]: Wait.. am I in the wrong about the tally? I have not kept one this round.

Summary: Sigurd continues to defend himself against me. Again, discussed at length - I didn't buy that he just forgot about Spirit Mafia.
Context: Looking at the writeups now, I'm probably leaning towards Sigurd more being a plain townie than a mafioso. BUT. He still hasn't turned against me as TC claims.

***Sigurd's next post is a tally. There is nothing of consequence.***

You are not exactly in danger of being lynched just yet. But I am and would welcome any theories you might have. Why do you suspect Yoyoma is mafia?

Summary: The very next post after his tally, Sigurd starts questioning IK and gives him a chance to explain himself.
Context: This could be another potential person on the watch list that we're looking for. Again, he's still not turning on me.

I am never lucky with dice...

But you are wrong. You should know better. The mafia can opt for not killing and make false clues such as this to slip under the radar. You have used it yourself in other games.
Besides Quintus is already dead.
GH said so himself... He was waiting for the feedback PM before making the vote. When it did not reveal anything he voted me based on gut feeling.

Seireikhaan is probably innocent. Should he survive I would let him live. Nobody plays that balsy if they are mafia.

Summary: This was back when you believed me innocent, saying that we should focus on Quintus, boudica, and Sigurd. Sigurd's defense was that the mafia could intentionally mess with writeups and that you should know better.
Context: I suppose a case could be made that this post signals he's starting to doubt me, but I find it more likely that he's just trying not to get lynched. Plus, he still never said anything against me.

Yet no failed attempts were narrated as promised. Either a) GH has not blocked a mafia at all or b) He blocked the mafia on the day the mafia chose to not kill.

But the mafia has not got rid of the blocker yet and they had the chance last night. Why? I suspect something fishy.

Summary: Sigurd points out my failues (addressed in my previous analysis post) and says something's fishy.
Context: Perhaps he could be doubting me here. But the reason for my continued survival has already been discussed. In addition, he's still said nothing against me.

Ok... if this is true, then I must be the shadow killer as this was the only missing role on both nights.
There was a confirmed kill and a foiled kill where two power roles were involved. Yet none of you compared this to the blocking results... Fishy I tell you.

Summary: I clear things up as to what happens when I block people, Sigurd responds.
Context: Your usual attack, my usual defense. "Fishy" could mean anything.

edit.. I am dead and can't reveal.

Summary: I didn't see what was originally here. Apparently, you did, and said that he suggested lynching those he previously already accused.
Context: See next post.

I guess this needs an answer.
According to Andres I did no wrong. I believed however that I was breaking the sportsmanship rule.

For clarification:

Summary: (note: a lot of quoted material is missing from this post). Sigurd clarifies what was going on.
Context: I believe that Sigurd edited it out for the reasons he stated in the PM. Not because of a secret role or anything.

CONCLUSION: I believe Sigurd to be nothing more than a townie who is suggesting that we lynch YLC. Another point I brought up in my previous analysis that you didn't address is Andres hinting that the athletic man's time as lynch leader was nearing an end before Sigurd was lynched.

On the gun thing:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I know this is a frustratingly bad defense, but the truth is "I don't know." I don't know how I got the gun. Everything I have ever said in this entire thread is the pure truth. And the truth is, I know as little as you guys do. All I do at night is send in my choices, forward them to Seamus (more on this later), and get my response PMs from Andres, which I copy word-for-word for you guys.

I don't know, but I do have a suggestion, which I've already repeated: It's possible that I now hold the gun simply because I'm now in charge of the lynches. This is the only thing I can think of.

Everything I have learned in this game, I have divulged to all of you. I'm not hiding any secret information whatsoever. I do not have any sinister motives. I do not have any goals that conflict in any way with any of the town's. I don't know anything about the statues. I don't know anything about the envelope. I don't know anything about the gun. I don't know anything about the architectual or Biblical references. All I know is who I protect and how successful I am at it. Believe what you want, but this is the honest truth.

On Seamus and timings:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

First of all, this defense is going to be a *#%! of a lot better than the last one. However, as per the above, I don't know about Seamus's dream. I can only assume that it meant he was protected since I did protect him that night.

I have been informing Seamus (and only Seamus) of my choices for a couple of nights now, after I blocked him and there were still three kills. I did this as a backup plan; in case I was killed, he would still be able to pass on my final choice of blocks to you all. I realize now, with it being evident that the mafia have no plans to kill me whatsoever, that this is a waste but I'm still doing it in the off chance that I do die.

I generally send in my orders very early on in the night phase, as Andres ends the day at a convenient time for me. HOWEVER. I do not inform Seamus of my choices until much later on in the phase, in the extremely remote chance that he is mafia. If this is the case, then he and his team would still have very little time to react and change things up.

Also, this is kind of random but I didn't know anywhere else to fit this, but another reason I had an insurance policy was if I died and Seamus said nothing in the thread, then I knew he was mafia.

As for the timings of the N7 writeups, I saw that Andres had posted in the thread and quickly skimmed it. I saw Seamus's name in bold, and excited (because this was the first time I was really sure I was going to thwart a hit, as I've already discussed), scrolled down to the "Still alive" list where his name was there. I put two and two together, not reading into the specifics until later.

I was out all day yesterday until late afternoon because of the inauguration. When I got back, I made it a priority to get on the .Org and PM Seamus with my protections because, while I had already sent in my orders, I didn't let Seamus know. It wasn't an elaborate, intricately-timed plan on my part. It was simply me getting online in the nick of time.

I think that's everything. I'd like to re-iterate that everything I've ever said in this thread has been nothing but the truth, and I have only the town's best interests at heart. If you follow the path that TinCow has suggested and lynch me and Seamus, I can guarantee you that the town will lose this game. Badly.