It's getting cold in Europe...

[Sarmatian]

EU countries would like nothing more than to diversify their supply but they can't, that's the issue. Plans for Nabucco exist for a long time now but there isn't enough gas to fill it up. Russia secured the deals with most ex-USSR countries about gas. The only country left in the near vicinity of Europe that has huge amounts of gas, or better to say enough to be a reliable long-term supplier, is Iran.

[Guildenstern]

The only country left in the near vicinity of Europe that has huge amounts of gas, or better to say enough to be a reliable long-term supplier, is Iran.

The distribution of Iran gas to Europe remains a big problem. There is no doubt that the transport of Iranian natural gas to Europe through Turkey would provide an attractive alternative to European reliance on Russian supplies. But such a deal would certainly also undermine US efforts to isolate Iran's oil and gas economy. As a matter of fact, although Iran and Europe hold a mutual attraction over their natural gas interests, the US is still opposed to the trans-Turkey gas sales. The US remains determined to curtail investment in Iran and Europe interests are tempered by US efforts to isolate Iran from the international community. Maybe things will change with Obama...

[rasoforos]

My thermometer showed 23 today...global warming is our friend

Seriously now, alternative sources are not the solution because frankly they go through or originate of inherently unstable countries (Algeria, Iran, Ukraine etc.)...

...its time we use the sun and the wind. Simple and can be diversified.

[Sarmatian]

The distribution of Iran gas to Europe remains a big problem. There is no doubt that the transport of Iranian natural gas to Europe through Turkey would provide an attractive alternative to European reliance on Russian supplies. But such a deal would certainly also undermine US efforts to isolate Iran's oil and gas economy. As a matter of fact, although Iran and Europe hold a mutual attraction over their natural gas interests, the US is still opposed to the trans-Turkey gas sales. The US remains determined to curtail investment in Iran and Europe interests are tempered by US efforts to isolate Iran from the international community. Maybe things will change with Obama...

Yes, EU efforts for Iranian gas are seriously hampered by the US, although even that wouldn't eliminate the need for Russian gas. Economic crisis aside, eastern European countries are experiencing a huge growth and the EU demand for gas will rise dramatically in the following years. So even with the Iranian gas, Russia would remain main gas supplier to the EU.

Some good things that may come out of this gas row as Gazprom and other big European gas companies will try to accelerate building of alternative pipelines, namely Nord and South Stream, which go around Ukraine...

[HoreTore]

Yes, EU efforts for Iranian gas are seriously hampered by the US, although even that wouldn't eliminate the need for Russian gas. Economic crisis aside, eastern European countries are experiencing a huge growth and the EU demand for gas will rise dramatically in the following years. So even with the Iranian gas, Russia would remain main gas supplier to the EU.

Some good things that may come out of this gas row as Gazprom and other big European gas companies will try to accelerate building of alternative pipelines, namely Nord and South Stream, which go around Ukraine...

Uhm.... Saudi Arabia has some gas, don't they?

Anyway, we're self-supplied up here in the cold north

And we run on hydro-electricity anyway....

[Sarmatian]

Uhm.... Saudi Arabia has some gas, don't they?

Some, yes...

Proven reserves bn m3
World 175,400

1) Russia 47,570
2) Iran 26,370
3) Qatar 25,790
4) Saudi Arabia 6,568
5) United Arab Emirates 5,823
6) United States 5,551
7) Nigeria 5,015
8) Algeria 4,359
9) Venezuela 4,112
10) European Union 3,310

Anyway, we're self-supplied up here in the cold north

And we run on hydro-electricity anyway....

You guys have pretty much everything up there, except nice weather

[Banquo's Ghost]

10) European Union 3,310

Interesting. That must be in Strasbourg.

[Guildenstern]

Some good things that may come out of this gas row as Gazprom and other big European gas companies will try to accelerate building of alternative pipelines, namely Nord and South Stream, which go around Ukraine...

I read that the South Stream pipeline would go from the Russian Black Sea coast across the seabed to Bulgaria, there to bifurcate into a southern branch toward Greece and Italy and a northern branch toward Serbia, Hungary, and Austria. In addition, Russia has proposed to extend this structure to many other countries along those routes.

Now, even if the South Stream project implies the diversion of significant gas volumes from Ukrainian pipelines, I think it is very difficult for Gazprom to satisfy all those potential customer countries along South Stream routes. There are prospects of important gas shortfalls for Russia, relative to its multiple, and growing, internal and external supply commitments from a stagnant production. Shortfalls are expected right when the South Stream becomes operational. After two decades of underinvestment in exploration and production (while over investing in other areas), Gazprom can only hope for large-scale production from new fields in Yamal (Siberia) in the latter part of the next decade.

[Sarmatian]

I read that the South Stream pipeline would go from the Russian Black Sea coast across the seabed to Bulgaria, there to bifurcate into a southern branch toward Greece and Italy and a northern branch toward Serbia, Hungary, and Austria. In addition, Russia has proposed to extend this structure to many other countries along those routes.

Now, even if the South Stream project implies the diversion of significant gas volumes from Ukrainian pipelines, I think it is very difficult for Gazprom to satisfy all those potential customer countries along South Stream routes. There are prospects of important gas shortfalls for Russia, relative to its multiple, and growing, internal and external supply commitments from a stagnant production. Shortfalls are expected right when the South Stream becomes operational. After two decades of underinvestment in exploration and production (while over investing in other areas), Gazprom can only hope for large-scale production from new fields in Yamal (Siberia) in the latter part of the next decade.

That's about right, although Italy will have two entry points. One from the south, from Greece and the other one will go through Slovenia to northern Italy.

It won't be just Russian gas, it will be also gas from several countries around Caspian Lake. I don't expect project to be finished before 2012-13 and then it'll take several years to build it. I think it will be finished in the latter part of the next decade, 2015-2020, somewhere in that period.

It isn't overly important how many countries will there be connected in the South Stream. Balkan countries are small in population and their economies are also small, they're not going to consume much gas. Even if you put Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, whatever-Balkan-country it won't change things so much. Germany consumes more gas than all Balkan countries put together. The only large consumer would be Italy, which also import gas from other sources...

[rasoforos]

Balkan countries are small in population and their economies are also small, they're not going to consume much gas.

True. Also I (and other Greeks) have this aversion of things that go ffffffsss and them booooom after an earthquake (since we experience one almost every other Tuesday)...

...I dont think it will ever enjoy widespread domestic use here...

...gas is only good for frying mussels!

[Guildenstern]

It won't be just Russian gas, it will be also gas from several countries around Caspian Lake. I don't expect project to be finished before 2012-13 and then it'll take several years to build it. I think it will be finished in the latter part of the next decade, 2015-2020, somewhere in that period.

Actually, I don't rely on the South Stream project very much. I very much doubt the whole thing. As far as I know, Gazprom has yet to show even a pre-feasibility study for South Stream, clarify its proposed routes, and prove that it can fill the South Stream pipeline to the planned capacity.

The South Stream project seems to me like a political and strategic bluff. I think it tries to hamper the carrying out of the EU-planned, US-backed Nabucco route for Caspian gas to Europe, largely duplicating that itinerary, so as to discourage investment in that project. I really hope the Nabucco structure will be built ahead of South Stream because it would represent a valid alternative to Russian gas for Europe.

[Sarmatian]

Actually, I don't rely on the South Stream project very much. I very much doubt the whole thing. As far as I know, Gazprom has yet to show even a pre-feasibility study for South Stream, clarify its proposed routes, and prove that it can fill the South Stream pipeline to the planned capacity.

The South Stream project seems to me like a political and strategic bluff. I think it tries to hamper the carrying out of the EU-planned, US-backed Nabucco route for Caspian gas to Europe, largely duplicating that itinerary, so as to discourage investment in that project. I really hope the Nabucco structure will be built ahead of South Stream because it would represent a valid alternative to Russian gas for Europe.

The project is in the infant stage, true, with this crisis not helping. Apart from that, there are many other issues. The deal involves many countries. Bulgaria signed in January last year and the definite deal with Serbia was signed only a couple of months ago.

South Stream isn't going to be built by Gazprom alone - it's a 50/50 joint investment between Gazprom and Eni. Feasibility study is being done by Eni and is supposed to be completed in 2009. There are still several options open concerning route, true.

Nabucco, on the other hand, is dead. It was never more than an idea, and those countries whose gas was supposed to transported by Nabucco are going to sell their gas through Russia. The only other option is Iran, but as you've said, daddy from Washington told Europeans not even to think in that direction...