The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded]

[shlin28]

Got one

Remember last round when YLC is so focused on the supposed suspicious conversation between Sasaki and Lord Winter (which I find NOT suspicious at all. If they are both scum, it would take a ridiculous amount of planning so that they both get online at the same time), yet soooooooo protective of Ichigo. Note that in the write-up the second killer with a "an apologetic smile on his face." This could suggest that he did not like killing people face to face, but prefer to use traps/force people to commit suicide. Could Ichigo be the mafia and lynched, and then YLC/a henchman commited the murders on N2?

Its a long shot, but its certainly better than basing it on who played in another mafia game.

[shlin28]

Based on differing activity level, as well as Tincow's concerns, I'd like to here a proper defense from Beefy.

Unvote: Abstain

Vote: 187Beefyz


Tally as of post #390

187Beefyz = 2 (Seamus, Tincow)
Sasaki = 2 (GSC, YLC)
Abstain = 1 (White Eyes)

Implied Abstain = 8 (Shlin, Tevash, Ares, Chaotix, Grizz, Beefy. QJC, Tratorix, Reenk)

Dead = 5 (Ichigo, Boudica, 'khaan, trat, arach)

No Vote = 10

Beefy won't be here to respond to this, as he is in Australia and the phase ends in a couple of hours

[GeneralHankerchief]

I'm going to extend this round a couple of hours to see if we can't get some of those "implied abstains" into the "actually voted" category.

If this keeps up I may also pull my standard "no more abstains" rule early.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Got one

Remember last round when YLC is so focused on the supposed suspicious conversation between Sasaki and Lord Winter (which I find NOT suspicious at all. If they are both scum, it would take a ridiculous amount of planning so that they both get online at the same time), yet soooooooo protective of Ichigo. Note that in the write-up the second killer with a "an apologetic smile on his face." This could suggest that he did not like killing people face to face, but prefer to use traps/force people to commit suicide. Could Ichigo be the mafia and lynched, and then YLC/a henchman commited the murders on N2?

Its a long shot, but its certainly better than basing it on who played in another mafia game.

While I agree that YLC's behavior was odd, if Ichigo was mafia there would only have been one kill tonight.

[Reenk Roink]

Sorry but I simply cannot allow Beefy to die this early yet again. He has been knocked off these games too early too frequently. I myself know the frustration when you join a bunch of Mafia games and are either voted off or killed early.

To actually clear Beefy, here is an argument (so people can't say I'm not being helpful):

The analysis on the writing styles is admirable but also, I feel it is far too exaggerated. Does anyone really believe that the guy who lifted the writeup from another game did research on all the games? He probably remembered a kill he liked and went with it. Yes there are people who would analyze kills and the game in general like that, but they are few, and the lazy are many.

It is also easier than some people are saying to change writing styles. Look at the kill writeups of Reenk Roink in Mafia V against the kill writeups of Reenk Roink in Rise of the Mob. Both games interlapped by the way.

You can find small changes (differing places of quotation marks, more sober punctuation use in one) as well as larger thematic changes (European vs American flavor, elaborate kills vs quick punchline kills).

Look at Beefy's recent Fillet Royale game. Look how inconsistent the Watcher's letters are.

All planned really.

Unvote: Seamus Fermanagh
Vote: Sasaki Kojiro

Sorry Sasaki but you will play the game if you are dead anyway.

Save Beefy!

[shlin28]

Huh, thats my theory blown out of the water. I thought mafia would still get two kills like in GH's games.

I guess YLC is not too suspcious after all.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

About half an hour to the deadline...only so many times you can self protect before it bites you in the back. Still the right play though.

Unvote:Lord Winter
Vote:Beefy

Ties can be nice. If two people vote for LW I'll switch back. He's a better lynch than Beefy I think.

[GeneralHankerchief]

About half an hour to the deadline

ORLY

[TevashSzat]

I don't find these writeup analysis to be particularly powerful evidence since they could be relatively easily forged by the mafiosos given the revelation that the second one was taken from another game. As such, the analysis so far, IMO, only leads to WIFOM

Beefy doesn't seem particularly scummy at all and given Sasaki's self preservation vote only half an hour (or so he thought) before the deadline, I will Vote:Sasaki

Updated Tally:

Sasaki = 4 (GSC, YLC, Reenk, Tevash)

187Beefyz = 3 (Seamus, Tincow, Sasaki)
Abstain = 1 (White Eyes)

Implied Abstain = 7 (Shlin, Ares, Chaotix, Grizz, Beefy. QJC, Tratorix, Reenk)

No Vote = 10

[Lord Winter]

I don't like ethier of the choices for lynches. Sasski is drawing fire for, well, being sasski, and I think Tincows profiling so far is no where near enough to drive the bandwagon we've been seeing for Beefy. How is he suppose to defend himself for those accusations? He has no way too.


Vote: Abstain

Unless a better lynch comes up.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I don't like ethier of the choices for lynches. Sasski is drawing fire for, well, being sasski, and I think Tincows profiling so far is no where near enough to drive the bandwagon we've been seeing for Beefy. How is he suppose to defend himself for those accusations? He has no way too.


Vote: Abstain

Unless a better lynch comes up.

Why don't you respond to my accusation and try to find someone you think is suspicious instead of waiting for a candidate to come up?

[Sasaki Kojiro]

unvote:Beefy
Vote:Lord Winter

I've worked hard enough at staying alive (STILL a good play and what I always do as town) that I do believe I'll be lynched soon. Last time voted to save myself more than once I got lynched soon after.

But a good rule of thumb for an early round lynch when there isn't much evidence is to lynch someone who doesn't post much and is gliding by:

Askthepizzaguy 42 36
777Ares777 31 28
GeneralHankerchief 31
Andres 23 22
TinCow 22 21
Sasaki Kojiro 21 19
187Beefyz 19 18
YLC 19 17
shlin28 16 15
Quintus.JC 14 13
Seamus Fermanagh 13 11
seireikhaan 13 11
CountArach 13
Reenk Roink 11 7
TevashSzat 10 9
LittleGrizzly 10 9
Chaotix27 8 7
White_eyes:D 8 7
Sigurd 8 4
boudica 7 6
glyphz 7 6
Rythmic 6 5
Gaius Scribonius Curio 6 5
Lord Winter 6 5
Jolt 6 5
Tratorix 5 4
Ichigo 3 2
taka 2 1
Ignoramus 2 1

LW is near the bottom, out of WoG range, and is displaying the risk averse mafia trait of watching and waiting. Add that to my previous post which he didn't reply to and make your choice

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

quickly ;)

[Thermal]

I think the person who created the same theme from last mafia have alot of time on there hands and are known to be crafty, putting beefy out of the equation IMO, but putting tincow in the line of fire, he keeps on referring to the punctuation grammar thing, so much that he probably did it himself.

vote: tincow

[Lord Winter]

Come on Sasski, you gave me 20 miniutes to respond to your post, I wouldn't call that a delay. Response to your orginal accusation.

Now, mafia in those days was much more helter skelter. Lynching was often pretty random. In that game I (as mafia) started a bandwagon to elect GH (godfather) as chief of police. GH voted second. So why pick out Seamus as the "third on the bandwagon" and vote for him? Checking the original game Lord Winter was 4th on the GH bandwagon

I don't buy Lord Winter finding the reenk bandwagon incredibly suspicious because there's no particular reason for the mafia to make a big effort to elect one of their own, and if they had then surely Lord Winter should suspect Reenk and another person from the reenk wagon as well.

You can't write off that bandwagon as evidence just because we're supposedly more experienced. The town has fallen for stuff like that in recent memory. Yes, the use of incredibly may be hyperbole but it still set off an alarm in my head as I was reading it. There's plenty of reasons a mafia would want one of theirs in the CoP position. It gives them influence over the town and an excuse of why they haven't been killed when we get further into the game. Even if Reenk wasn't mafia, bandwagons still are a tool frequently used for the mafia to slip by the town. My choice of Seamus was based off of the common idea that mafia tend to be third on the Bandwagon. His response still hasn't proved his innocence to me either.

Further more none the accusations point towads mafia behavior. At best I'm guilty of poor logic.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Come on Sasski, you gave me 20 miniutes to respond to your post, I wouldn't call that a delay. Response to your orginal accusation.

You posted before this without responding to the original

You can't write off that bandwagon as evidence just because we're supposedly more experienced. The town has fallen for stuff like that in recent memory. Yes, the use of incredibly may be hyperbole but it still set off an alarm in my head as I was reading it. There's plenty of reasons a mafia would want one of theirs in the CoP position. It gives them influence over the town and an excuse of why they haven't been killed when we get further into the game. Even if Reenk wasn't mafia, bandwagons still are a tool frequently used for the mafia to slip by the town. My choice of Seamus was based off of the common idea that mafia tend to be third on the Bandwagon. His response still hasn't proved his innocence to me either.

You said it reminded you of godfather one--yet as I pointed out, in godfather one the first and second person on the bandwagon were mafia so why would you vote for the third this time? The "third on the bandwagon logic" is used because mafia want any townie lynched and so as soon as anyone starts to gather votes they jump on. This doesn't work at all for the CoP voting because the mafia would only want one person elected, and so would be much more likely to start the bandwagon themselves. If some some insane reason they would risk that after it was done in the first game when the benefits of being CoP are minimal.

One of the things we look for in mafia is posts that indicate that the suspicion is not genuine and arrived at by artificial means. Your posts indicated that you weren't genuinely suspicious of Seamus and you are admitting that now--you aren't voting for him or anyone on the reenk bandwagon today and are waiting "for something good to come up" instead of looking on your own. It's easy to see how a mafioso would come in on day one, try to find a reason to vote, make one up without thinking about it too hard, get called on it and back off, and then avoid accusing someone on day 2.

Further more none the accusations point towads mafia behavior. At best I'm guilty of poor logic.

Correct, at best you are guilty of poor logic, at worst you are a mafioso. It's certainly possible that a townie would be careless day one and back off day 2 (the town certainly seems lazy this game). But on day 2 it's a little much to ask not to be lynched because you say you're just a townie who seems suspicious.

I hope GH likes the pro-bowl...

[GeneralHankerchief]

I've decided to just double this session's length. That means it'll end at 13:00 EST tomorrow. Maybe that way we'll get some stragglers coming in once the weekend's over.

[LittleGrizzly]

Im going to Vote Jolt for 2 reasons, one his low postcount in the game, two based on tincow's reasoning of the english as a second langauge or badly spoken first langauge...

[Beefy187]

In that case, I got more then enough time to defend my self don't I? (I am in Japan now. So Im GST +9 or something)

Vote:Beefy

I don't think Sasaki is guilty either so just to save him.

I am more then willing to defend my self. But I don't know where to start. Could you give me couple of questions I can answer?

[Tratorix]

In that case, I got more then enough time to defend my self don't I? (I am in Japan now. So Im GST +9 or something)

Vote:Beefy

I don't think Sasaki is guilty either so just to save him.

I am more then willing to defend my self. But I don't know where to start. Could you give me couple of questions I can answer?

How in the world are you somehow more sure of Sasaki's innocence than your own?

[LittleGrizzly]

How in the world are you somehow more sure of Sasaki's innocence than your own?

I second tratorix, you now for a 100% you are innocent whereas you don't now what sasaki is... (unless you are scum...)

[Reenk Roink]

In that case, I got more then enough time to defend my self don't I? (I am in Japan now. So Im GST +9 or something)

Vote:Beefy

I don't think Sasaki is guilty either so just to save him.

I am more then willing to defend my self. But I don't know where to start. Could you give me couple of questions I can answer?

Ok, let's try to get a whole rollback of votes now, off both Sasaki and Beefy...

[Beefy187]

How in the world are you somehow more sure of Sasaki's innocence than your own?

If I don't say gut then ill be lying.

But strategically speaking, I don't think the God father will choose one of the returning players who are loved by everyone. They won't know about newer players therefore they'll get the analysis wrong, therefore are more likely to be lynched. Also they are more likely to be investigated early on and gather lots of attention. Added to that, unless the mafias are purposely faking it, its more likely to be a non native speaker just like few of the players pointed out.

Also it would be dead wrong to start lynching active players. If you look at recent Khaans game, the current trend is lurking mafia is more likely to win the game.

Lynch me if you want but if you do... heres my will.

Please everyone!! Talk!! That will add pressure to those lurking mafias!

[Beefy187]

This might have been mentioned before but a question to the host.

1. If the lynchee happened to be mafia, will they be reveal?
2. If one of the mafia get lynched, will they still get 2 kills?

[GeneralHankerchief]

No and no.

[Tratorix]

If I don't say gut then ill be lying.

But strategically speaking, I don't think the God father will choose one of the returning players who are loved by everyone. They won't know about newer players therefore they'll get the analysis wrong, therefore are more likely to be lynched. Also they are more likely to be investigated early on and gather lots of attention. Added to that, unless the mafias are purposely faking it, its more likely to be a non native speaker just like few of the players pointed out.

Also it would be dead wrong to start lynching active players. If you look at recent Khaans game, the current trend is lurking mafia is more likely to win the game.

Lynch me if you want but if you do... heres my will.

Please everyone!! Talk!! That will add pressure to those lurking mafias!

The point I was trying to make is that voting for yourself here seems scummy to me. It looks like you're trying to prove you don't fear lynching to roll suspicion off of yourself. I've seen scum use this tactic alot. I've done it a few times myself. If you're innocent, you wouldn't want the town to waste a lynch on you, which you would know is a wrong move.

[Reenk Roink]

The point I was trying to make is that voting for yourself here seems scummy to me. It looks like you're trying to prove you don't fear lynching to roll suspicion off of yourself. I've seen scum use this tactic alot. I've done it a few times myself. If you're innocent, you wouldn't want the town to waste a lynch on you, which you would know is a wrong move.

Trust me, it's different with Beefy, he really is one of the few "selfless townies".

[Tratorix]

Trust me, it's different with Beefy, he really is one of the few "selfless townies".

Why are you so sure of his innocence? I'm not saying we need to lynch him right now, I'm just saying that I think that was a scummy move, "selfless townie" reputation or not.

[Beefy187]

The point I was trying to make is that voting for yourself here seems scummy to me. It looks like you're trying to prove you don't fear lynching to roll suspicion off of yourself. I've seen scum use this tactic alot. I've done it a few times myself. If you're innocent, you wouldn't want the town to waste a lynch on you, which you would know is a wrong move.

Its no tactic. But Sasaki was kind enough to pull of the pressure off me. Even though his standing in the chopping line and I'm his greatest rival. I just like the fair contest.

Lynching Sasaki will give town nothing I believe. Lynching me is totally useless except the fun factor you get each time for lynching me. But since both 1 & 2 is not the case, I cannot prove anything sadly.

If I got other options to vote for, I will. But if I am understanding the situation correctly, we are only allowed to vote for myself or Sasaki are we not?

Anyways because currently I cannot detect any scumness from anyone, I cannot point fingers at anyone. If you call that scummy, so be it. I personally call it lack of skill to find mafia. Out of many games I played, I only efficiently managed to catch the mafia once

[Beefy187]

No and no.

Does the second no mean mafia will get one kill if they are lynched? In that case, this problem is solved.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Correct, if a mafioso is lynched then the maximum amount of kills the mafia get per night is one.