Originally Posted by TinCow
harsh? ...but fair I think. The beautiful thing about TinCow's proposal there is that ATPG can keep reparing holes in his SkyNet whether alive or lynched
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
harsh? ...but fair I think. The beautiful thing about TinCow's proposal there is that ATPG can keep reparing holes in his SkyNet whether alive or lynched
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Askthepizzaguy, I admire the effort you put in these games, I really do. And don't let some mutterings otherwise stop you. Enjoy these games in your own way.
However, any systematic method of analysis in these games is self defeating and doomed to fail. If they sometimes produce right results, it is due to coincidence purely.
TinCow, your criticism and then tacit support of some of Askthepizzaguy conclusions confuses me (and probably yourself too), as well as your odd insistence that you have been proven innocent as if innocence implies any sort of ability to analyze better...
Silence: TinCow
Vote: Askthepizzaguy
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Perhaps I didn't explain that well enough. The point is that ATPG's analysis does generally seem fair and logical. He makes a strong case against RR and Tevash. This indicates to me that if the games does not end with those two, there is a strong possibility that ATPG has been intentionally leading the town astray. Thus, if his claims don't pan out, then he should be considered extremely suspect.
harsh? ...but fair I think. The beautiful thing about TinCow's proposal there is that ATPG can keep reparing holes in his SkyNet whether alive or lynched
My criticism was on a few points which I disagree with. I think the TEXT ICBM threatens to make people believe every last word he writes, which is dangerous. ATPG does make some errors in there IMO, and so I want to point those out so that people don't buy them when they accept everything else. That does not mean I disagree with everything he says, though.TinCow, your criticism and then tacit support of some of Askthepizzaguy conclusions confuses me (and probably yourself too), as well as your odd insistence that you have been proven innocent as if innocence implies any sort of ability to analyze better...
I do not claim any great ability to analyze due to my innocence (which HAS been proven, since I was killed by mafia). The point of emphasizing my innocence is that there is no possibility that I am trying to mislead the town when reading ATPG's TEXT ICBM. My advice is subject to as much error as anyone else's, but you at least know it's not mafia advice trying to lead you astray.
Last edited by TinCow; 02-12-2009 at 15:45.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
it's still night isn't it???Askthepizzaguy, I admire the effort you put in these games, I really do. And don't let some mutterings otherwise stop you. Enjoy these games in your own way.
However, any systematic method of analysis in these games is self defeating and doomed to fail. If they sometimes produce right results, it is due to coincidence purely.
TinCow, your criticism and then tacit support of some of Askthepizzaguy conclusions confuses me (and probably yourself too), as well as your odd insistence that you have been proven innocent as if innocence implies any sort of ability to analyze better...
Silence: TinCow
Vote: Askthepizzaguy
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
It's dangerous to put forward an order of lynching targets. If you go:
- next round : lynch X
- then : lynch Y
- then lynch Z
then you are basically killing all discussion in three full rounds.
Yes ATPG has put alot of effort in his analysis, but I remember another player, Kommodus, with holmes, a tool that he had worked on for very, very long and that had at least as much data in it as ATPG claims his tool to contain, yet he admitted himself that it was not flawless and not to be relied on blindly. In fact, town even won a few games because they did not follow all suggestions provided by holmes. Kommo himself even ignored his own tool and by doing so nailed my mafia partner Dutch_guy in Mafia VI.
What I'm trying to say, don't put too much trust in programs or databases or scripts or whatever it is ATPG has developped. While useful tools, they are most of the time not enough to obtain a town victory.
Also, if I understand the explanation in his long post correctly (yes, I read it, I have to, since I moderate this place), he only analysed the behaviour of mafia players, not behaviour of townies. I believe that if you want such a database/analysis tool/script or program(?) to work, you should also analyse all townie behaviour and then compare general townie with general mafia behaviour + player per player comparisons when townie vs. mafia. Then you should also analyse pro-town power roles, since, if I remember correctly from Kommo, some players (intentionally and unintentionally) display mafia-like behaviour when they have a pro-town power role.
Alot of the things all mafiosi have in common, they'll probably have in common with townies and, maybe even more with pro-town power roles as well. The thing is to find where the differences are and how much those differences occur.
Andres is our Lord and Master and could strike us down with thunderbolts or beer cans at any time. ~Askthepizzaguy
Ja mata, TosaInu
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Andres:
Fair points about Kommo's tool. He himself noted its limitations which included reduced accuracy with "newer" players; the inability to discriminate between Pro-town and Mafia roles (spotting the power players quickly and wiping them out is counterproductive if you happen to whack the Detective and the Doctor first); and finally that certain posting styles, when consistent for that player, didn't have enough variance to twig Holmes' radar.
Don't get me wrong, his Holmes was albe to nail me a time or two, but NO SYSTEM (except the one about women running the marriage) is unspoofable -- as about 5 millenia of human history will indicate.
I also agree about your point on listing lynches in advance. Unless we are down to the endgame and we have a VERY focused set of targets, it's counterproductive to suggest more than one round in advance.
Pizza:
You realize that, vis-a-vis this game, your discussion of your tool also provides clear evidence that you have been poring over the specific posts of previous games....which we know figures prominently in the writeups of each night phase. This too is food for thought.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Gah, I *always" get anti-town vibes from SkyNet even though I am town.
Even if I was mafia, the only position I could be is the Godfather, as any grunts would be found guilty by the detective... (small chance of detective being dead... but thats TINY). and I know I am NOT the Godfather...
So yeah, I think you guys should trust me and not lynch your benevolent overlord.
PS: Sorry for decrease in activity for past few days, once the weekend is here prepare for a humungus amount of posts
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
That's some awesome anaylsis ATPG, well-reasoned. You've clearly put a great amount of effort in helping the town's cause (or deceving the town).
ATPG has clearly shown the effort, but there have been many cases before where supposely 'pro-town' players who posted long anaylsis turned out to be the mafia. Curio in Mafia VIII is a good example of this.I can't say your mafia now....unless you really want to get carpel tunnel syndrome...
I agree with lynching Tevash next round. He's a good pick for grunt, and his behaviour doesn't suggest of his innocence at all.
I'm less certain about Reenk, behavouir wise I don't see much wrong with him (he is also quiet in the other game). Also he'd be a dangerous pick as a grunt because of his playing style and past records.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
@ ATPG: Your player analysis is almost identical to as done at the TWC, you must of known i'd pick this up, coinceidenally you were mafia on that game, while i think the analysis is superb it is also similar to a game where you were mafia. And ive got reason to assume YLC is guilty because you simply said he feels innocent to you, that usually means you want him out of trouble for no personal reason, other than he is associated with you, saying you think the majority of players are innocent to counteract everyone voting for you.
With that said, i will not vote against you when day comes, your simply to amazing a player to kill off without the evidence to lynch you, and i do agree ignormous should be killed off too, with lurking and minimal voting at an insultingly high level.
Last edited by Thermal; 02-12-2009 at 19:30.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Night 4
Jolt was returning home from work when he saw a large white envelope placed right in front of his front door. On guard given the recent killings, he cautiously opened it for fear of some nefarious killing device. To his relief, there was only an unmarked DVD disc and piece of paper in it which said:
“Meet me at the abandoned office building just southeast of the Gameroom and north of the Frontroom in one hour. Bring the DVD. -Your Friendly Neighborhood Savior”
Jolt was not an idiot so he called up the Chief of Police, shlin28 to tell him of this meeting. Unfortunately, shlin28 was held up by a pizza delivery car the whole drive home and never received the message in time.
Confident that shlin28 would be home soon and call for backup, Jolt anxiously drove to the abandoned office building. The whole area was quiet except for the rustling of a poorly attached poster exclaiming the importance of saving the grizzly bear population nearby.
Jolt entered the building lobby where he saw a small television with a DVD player attached to it placed on the floor. He slowly inserted the DVD he received from the envelope into the player and waited for the video to play.
A dark figure appeared and started talking, “Hello, Jolt. I see that you managed to get my message. Good, this means that there's still some trust left in this place. You have no idea how glad I am to know this. This building is currently under watch. Stay put, I'll be here in five minutes. We'll talk face-to-face then. This is a dire situation. I want to warn you of the impending chaos to come…..”
Outside, the wind finally blew that grizzly bear poster down to reveal a sign that said: “WARNING, DEMOLITION TO OCCUR AT DUSK.”
Jolt never managed to hear the rest of the message because the whole building was instantly blown up.
When shlin28 and his backup finally arrived, the building was reduced to a huge pile of rubble. Dental records had to be used to identify Jolt’s remains.
Cursing, Chief of Police shlin28 drove back to the town square. His day had been interrupted, his lynch method for the day was behind schedule, and to top it off the interruption was for actual police work, and not something more pleasurable like a massage session with some of his "aides". Police work wasn't supposed to be part of the job!
"They'd better lynch whoever was responsible for interrupting my day," he muttered to himself. "This is a crime more serious than murder."
Grunting, he stuck a particularly heavy uncomfortable chair to the execution platform. Looking around, he saw the man with the boombox lounging about, listening to "Escalator of Life" by Robert Hazard, not a care in the world. For some reason, he seemed to be playing the song's climax over and over again. As always, the nude unicyclist pedaled and juggled about, observing everything.
Ignoring the two, shlin made his way into the back of a large van, taking out a firework. Grinning for the first time in hours, he set it up and launched it. Soon enough, everyone gathered to where he was.
"All right," he said, "Here we go again. This time, the execution is simple. All that will have to happen to the person with the most votes is that they'll sit in the chair. Sound easy enough? Good, amuse me."
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Still alive: (19)
shlin28
YLC
777Ares777
Andres
TevashSzat
Quintus.JC
Rythmic
White_eyes:D
Chaotix27
Reenk Roink
glyphz
187Beefyz
taka
Seamus Fermanagh
LittleGrizzly
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Ignoramus
Askthepizzaguy
Sasaki Kojiro
Killed:
Tratorix
CountArach
seireikhaan
boudica
TinCow
Jolt
Executed:
Ichigo
Lord Winter
Sigurd
~~~~~~~
Voting will close at precisely 14:00 EST tomorrow.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
I like the analysis although I think you mark off too many people as townie for convenience sake. There are several who I think are capable--even if they showed scummy behavior in the other games you analyzed--of appearing townie up to this point. I'm also very familiar with the "I have it all figured out" epiphany (and have a tradition of pm'ing GH my later-revealed-to-be-ridiculous suspicions), and it can often blind you to the truth.
I wouldn't put reenk in the guilty pile. He could be mafia for sure, but he always plays the game his own way as town or as mafia. Setting himself up as "defender of beefy" fits right in. I don't object to his lynch but it's something to keep in mind.
Tevash was someone I was going to take a look at come daytime.
Ignoramus always lurks and has been WoG'd countless times.
Oh, and shlin is someone I used to keep around to get lynched in the endgame when I was mafia
I'm pretty optimistic for this game, we have a huge number of lynch rounds if the mafia are indeed at one kill. Although something tells me none of the "suspects" will be killed anytime soon.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Looks like Lord Winter could of been one of the scums after all....
Vote: Tevash
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
As far as I can tell, this write-up is original. Searches of the Org and TWC do not show anything that matches the above. I'm not going to attempt to do further writing style analysis, as the mafioso would surely be extraordinarily careful at this point, probably working with their Godfather as an 'editor.' I simply mention this as the decision to abandon the plagiarism is itself interesting, though I can't put any significance on it.
Last edited by TinCow; 02-12-2009 at 19:58.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
look posts 291# - 303 for ATPG worringly similiar behavior as to this game by the way, if you want to look.
http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showt...217758&page=16
oh and orgahs join some games at the twc, it be fun!
Last edited by Thermal; 02-12-2009 at 19:54.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Technically until GeneralHankerchief confirms that there are no non-town non main Mafia roles in the game, your status has not been proven at all.
If or when it is proven... read on...
As for a dead innocent misleading, first it is not even remotely out of the question that a townie try to mislead the town for whatever reason. Second, even if a dead townie doesn't intend to mislead, he could still be doing so (as you are right now by saying I am a good choice for a lynch).
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
fos:Askthepizzaguy, YLC
Tevash had tweaked me, but on reread there isn't much there. Given my thoughts on reenk already.
When Lord Winter was on the block, atpg made a huge case on Curio which was filled with poor logic and is now abandoned.
I think his game analysis is off. Don't agree with the conclusions.
It's interesting to consider him as a scumpartner with YLC. I can see them deciding that LW was a goner and lynching him--it's what I would do as mafia given that being dropped to one kill reveals (sort of) the guilt of the person last lynched. I don't like the way YLC went from what I would describe as having given up early yesterday to mafia-philosopher road when it appeared sigurd getting lynched was a real possibility. The timing of atpg's huge game analysis could be an effort to get suspicion away from YLC.
atpg says that YLC is "lynch later if necessary":
Despite being sure he's townie:YLC 32 (ATPG townie judgment call) Lynch later if necessary.
This doesn't match the decisiveness of the other analysis on players. YLC is listed in green while other players who he's going to recheck are in blue.YLC- He's being precisely the way he always is, and it always gets him killed. You underestimate him, seriously. I know he annoys you sometimes but he's more talented than you realize. And he might have helped kill a mafia, Lord Winter. Although he's really due to be mafia, he's lynchbait and therefore a poor choice for a grunt.
There are other people who could be mafia--and it's possible that only one of these guys is, but at this point no one else has done anything particularly suspicious and the link these two have with each and the circumstances of Lord Winters lynch makes them impossible to pass up.
Haven't decided which one to vote yet.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
note i said YLC was suspicious for those reasons to, look at the link i left in my last post, posts 291-303 are similar to this game and he was mafia there.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Re-read the rules. GH says one Godfather, two Grunts, and a Detective. GH hosts classic games with classic roles, and this is apparently a revival of his favorite classic series. Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it, the first two games had nothing but mafioso and a detective. If GH was going to toss in other roles, I think it would be clear from the instructions, like it was for his now-delayed Pirate Ship game.
Fair enough. I'm not going to argue this point, because I don't even think I'm good at catching mafioso. I do my best to contribute in the most useful way I see possible, and I try and support points that seem correct to me. Currently, I see nothing that I am so absolutely passionate about that I'm going to argue it heavily.As for a dead innocent misleading, first it is not even remotely out of the question that a townie try to mislead the town for whatever reason. Second, even if a dead townie doesn't intend to mislead, he could still be doing so (as you are right now by saying I am a good choice for a lynch).
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
No, I was the secret mafia mastermind in Godfather one. In Godfather two I believe the twist was that there were two detectives. Although I can't remember exactly, that might have been what GH and Myrd claimed the twist was
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Good initiative, but I suggest you more closely follow your own advice:Re-read the rules. GH says one Godfather, two Grunts, and a Detective. GH hosts classic games with classic roles, and this is apparently a revival of his favorite classic series. Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it, the first two games had nothing but mafioso and a detective. If GH was going to toss in other roles, I think it would be clear from the instructions, like it was for his now-delayed Pirate Ship game.
...the exact nature of which will remain a mystery until the end of the game.Finally... I'll let Silver explain the final rule:
-edit- Sasaki, that was what we claimed but it turns out that was the actual twist too. It just wasn't us, obviously.
Last edited by GeneralHankerchief; 02-12-2009 at 20:43.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Then I stand corrected. Feel free to toss a scum-bucket on me and call me Frankie No Nose until the game is done.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
ATPG I am sorry that you are indeed quite wrong.....I am just a townie as always and here is my rebuttal to your analysis.
Okay......it was pretty obvious that the CoP round was more or less not that serious with the Tincow eating babies and things like that. If you remember, I voted for shlin when he was the underdog and honestly had no idea everyone would all then suddenly bandwagon on shlin.....110: "QFT!!! Vote:shlin28 No agenda like everyone else, just wants a good time......"
I think your move here has a subtle agenda. Not a fan of my analysis, are we? Hasn't bothered you before, I don't think. But I am keeping an open mind. Let's continue.
127: Laughs at Reenk's gamble. Helped elect Shlin28.
Reenk Roink, Andres, Shlin, TevashSzat all moved to elect Shlin28. I suggest he could be mafia. Shlin28 needs to be removed from power.
158: Jokes about lynching Shlin28.
172: Spams us with a "no spam" post.
From your perception, the CoP would almost definately be scummy since people had to vote for him right? Of course, the other guy who would've possibly been CoP was Reenk so your "scummy" people would be fufilled after all......
Well, just pointing things out there since mafia usually rarely writes the writeups and noone had mentioned it before.219: Votes Andres. Very interesting! "Also, aren't the writeups done by the mafiosos? I suppose someone should try to examine them for clues......I would but I don't really want to spend that much time overly analyzing something. Anyways, for what I read, the writeups seem well written with no blatant grammatical errors or anything like that"
Right. It's a bit soon to be analyzing the writeups. Perhaps you wrote them to mislead us, and then encouraged us to analyze them. Trying to keep an open mind... lets continue.
It didn't lead us down any particularly useful avenues as usual but at least someone should've looked at them
Okay....let me get this straight. I'm scummy because I am actually trying to contribute? With that reasoning, you must the mafia given the huge wall of text you have provided for us.233: "All that will lead to is WIFOM. Person 1: You weren't mentioned so you must be scum
Person 2: But if I were scum, I wouldn't be so careless Person 1: But if you were scum, you would be leaving yourself the opportunity to say you weren't careless. And it can just go on and on.....
@Tincow, Your idea seems very promising. Does anyone here know who in the game speaks English as their first/primary language. I spose that may be useful later on"
Sounds like he's helping out, but he's planting ideas in our heads, subtly trying to destroy potential arguments BEFORE they come.
As for destroying arguments, again How is it bad to destroy BAD arguments before they're put into discussion and waste townie time? You can't say that my comments were true.
Also, aren't your analysis of the "innocent" just destroying potential discussion. Your townie people must be innocent so you're making sure that people are only focusing on who you deem to be scummy.
It was the first round. Ichigo barely posted. Seamus didn't post much at all. There was little to no evidence against both. Am I to say that oh Ichigo's lurkiness makes him a definate scum? Heck, you didn't have a strong conviction against either too.......303: "Well......don't really have anything against Seamus or Ichigo atm. Ichigo seems to not be active at all atm, which is not characteristic of scum, but I don't see how Seamus is extremely scummy right now either so...
Sorry. I need more from you than that. Not wanting to vote for the top "suspects", both of whom are innocent in my opinion, so that you can't be blamed for their death, but you have no suspects of your own? Why? uninterested in the game, or mafia? which is it? We need neither.
Nothing personal of course. You're a good player... that's why I expect more. I also find the excessive "......." at the end to be a nervous habit, but that's not evidence I can use.
Also regarding the ellipsis that I use: I use them because I like using them.......I use them in alot of my posts and this isn't really a major development of my supposedly mafia psyche.
And you can find alot more posts from most people, including those in your townie list, that do the same thing.355: "Well, Perry Mason didn't seem to be related to the kill writeups which suggests that perhaps the mafia didn't write it. That means that either GH or the detective (or a secret role) may be trying to say something to us"
Speculative, but otherwise reveals nothing new. "Just staying active" post.
I never am too active in games so I try to "just stay active" alot.
You here are misunderstanding what I am trying to say:372: "Hmm....that'd be a good way for them to disguise their writing styles. I don't recollect the first writeup from any game that I've played in, but I don't really remember writeups that clearly.....Does anyone here remember the first writeup?"
Passively going along with what GSC said. Asks people a question that doesn't help. Couldn't he go read the first writeup himself? Generates no new suspects, and no controversy, no heat on him.
I obviously have read the first writeup since how can I not recollect something if I haven't read it? I mean that this first writeup doesn't seem to be copied from any other writeup in other mafia games.
I obviously haven't played every mafia game in the Org or even a large portion of it so there is a pretty good chance that if the writeup was copied, some veteran players who have had more games under their belt would have remembered them.
Let me say this:Post 390: Right in the middle of the post count list. How convenient to avoid being lynched for lurking, but to avoid detection.
I don't have lots of ideas and don't post much like others (you, Tincow, etc...) so if I want to be on the top of postcounts, I'd have to SPAM the thread which would do no good.
Lurking excessively can only caused WOG for me, which is bad for the town since I'm a townie so I don't do that.
In short, I'm scummy now because I don't spam and I don't want to get WOGed.
Seamus and White_eyes were only a few posts more and less than me, respectively. They, however, can't be sucmmy at all since they don't fall within the arbitrary middle do they?
Umm......I'm actually a bit of a slouch in most mafia games.399: "I don't find these writeup analysis to be particularly powerful evidence since they could be relatively easily forged by the mafiosos given the revelation that the second one was taken from another game. As such, the analysis so far, IMO, only leads to WIFOM"
Suggests analysis is futile, after half-hearted attempts at analysis. The futility, the lack of energy, the lack of controversy, the lack of suspects, the lack of will, the lack of decisiveness. All say scum to me, and Tevash is no slouch. He's slouching here.
I know I was fairly active in yours, but that was because your game had that twist.
I would say most people would agree that I tend to be semi-active in most games or basically drop out. I have been WoGed quite a few times and quite often get behind in reading.
I am seriously now doubting your analysis skills if all you've deduced from my games is that I always contribute alot because frankly (and kinda sadly) I rarely am that useful of a townie.
Yea.....I think our number of posts per page is different so can't really rebute here.Nothing page 6. Why post when you're not a suspect? Voted for Sasaki.
TevashSzat posted more in the Golden Rule game where he had a mafia-esque role. He posted slightly more in this game than Fillet Royale, but he's not excessively talkative. I think he's off his base behavior here.
Again, different # of posts per pageNothing page 7. Why post when you're not a suspect?
Okay, how the heck is that a bandwagon?583: BLATANT BANDWAGON ON YLC. NOTHING ELSE PAGE 8
Sasaki made a good argument against YLC and want him to respond. Sigurd votes YLC as a pressure vote.
Now instead of YLC responding to an attack on him like myself, he votes for himself, which IMO, is incredibly scummy.
Quick question: Had I not responded like so and simply voted myself saying that oh there is no point in staying alive at all? Does that make me more or less scummy?
ATPG I must applaud you for your effort, but I seriously doubt your reasoning behind my supposed scumminess.
You claim that I voted for the CoP, tried to stop bad arguments and point out WIFOM beforehand, don't post a great deal, which is my normal behavior, and vote on a clearly scummy or at least, not very helpful townie.
I am ambivalent as to whether you are a mafioso with WAYYYYYY too much time on your hands or just a misguided townie. Your rather poor analysis and almost capricious choosing of scummy people, however, make me think that you will do little but distract the town's discussion.
Vote: ATPG
Edit:
I strongly encourage people to actually read ATPG's analysis before just capriciously bandwagoning for whomever he deemed to be scummy.
Edit 2:
FOS: Quintus No comment regarding ATPG's analysis at all. Did you even read his analysis of me?
Last edited by TevashSzat; 02-12-2009 at 21:32.
"I do not know what I may appear to the world; but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me." - Issac Newton
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Sasaki, you do realize your argument for the WALL OF TEXT is baseless? I did the whole thing for that wall of text, not the other way around. Your argument against me is based upon the notion that I would act clearly scummy to hide my guilty nature. That's not only clear WIFOM, but bad play in my opinion.
Lynch me if you want, just not on the basis ATPG is trying to save me.
To help you along in that endeavor
Vote:TevashSzat
I find you wall of text more painful to look at.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Ok, there's some points I think I could explain more fully:
First: Why would ATPG and/or YLC vote to lynch there own partner? Well, I have a reputation for being tenacious and good at convincing people, and I was going after Lord Winter pretty hard. Lord Winter was not successfully defending himself. When you're mafia, the fact that you know your partners are guilty always colors your perception of the game. There are many times I've been very anxious over a post one of my partners made that I thought would give them away only to have it ignored. So by that view, it's quite possible that LW's partners pessimistically considered him as good as dead.
Second: YLC's behavior yesterday. I described this poorly in my last post. I meant to get at the disconnect between his first post after the accusation, and the rest of his posts.
This post: Voting himself, won't be able to post much because he's busy, will come back and contribute later.
Rest of posts: obviously not that busy, specifically says that he's a spiteful townie and will try to hurt the town if lynched, changes vote to sigurd.
Third: ATPG's case on Curio. 8 posts, several of them very long. He persistently questions Curio and accuses him of hiding. I don't think I'll get into the meat of ATPG's accusation but it is poor logic--thought not as bad as his case on shlin. After all that, he switches to Lord Winter with this post:
Reason: His writing style could match one of the killers.
His later thoughts on Lord Winter:
The vote count at the time was Lord Winter 4, Sigurd 2.Lord Winter: I'm having second thoughts, but the low activity and veteran status combined with sort of a low-key play style and the spelling stuff means that if we just totally overlook him as a top suspect, we aren't doing a very thorough job.
I'd think that the mafia, as a team, however, would catch Lord Winter's writing style before it makes it to print... possibly, perhaps, not even choosing him as a grunt to begin with due to GH's lack of editing. All this is speculation.
And I don't think Sigurd should ever be allowed to lurk again. If not Lord Winter, go ahead and string him up.
I'd be willing to take my vote off of Lord Winter as well, but I don't know... Sigurd has been mafia a LOT lately... making him a grunt is a bad choice. Especially if he lurks. They must think we are total morons to pick Sigurd and have him lurk again. I have doubts it's Sigurd for like, what is it, 4th time in a row? That being said, he's not particularly helpful, and I refuse to lose to a lurker again.
This is all open to interpretation. My view is that atpg faked the case on curio, decided to lynch his buddy and came up with a wishy washy reason for it, and then had thoughts of switching to sigurd but decided not to.
Fourth: ATPG current suspects.
Ignoramus always lurks and is usually WoG. Not a "soon" lynch in my book.Ignoramus: Lynch soon, no recommendation to investigate. Lurker.
This is his summary, and it has problems of its own--no one cares about being CoP and there are plenty of veteran players to recruit--but look at the full case for more fun, here's some snippets:Reenk Roink: Lynch priority. Possible scumbag or Godfather due to his CoP run and second-thoughts leading to the drop out. Too tempting for the veteran players not to recruit him. He's the perfect mafioso and he's brilliant as I said. Low key in his own Reenky way.
My reaction to this is: what?? Seriously. I wouldn't say reenk is innocent but this is what he plays like, and these reasons of atpg's are nonsense.He sees a chance to off Sasaki and he is THIRD ON THE BANDWAGON ON SASAKI, with no pressure on him. Safest and most scummy move in the entire mafia universe.
...
An awful lot of thought on this topic, eh, Reenk? And who would you suggest you'd pick "if you were mafia", if you WERE mafia?
...
Reenk is DEAD CENTER in the post count list. The perfect mafia hiding place if you're avoiding the bottom and CANNOT pass as a lurker. And by my count, he's quieter than usual.
...
Votes Sigurd... and he reminisces about previous mafia games and gives them a pat on the back. Scummy, scummy, scummy in my book.
On Tevash, this seems to be the meat of atpg's accusation:
In the middle of the list--null tell. And how is tevash's perfectly legitimate point about the writeup analysis scummy? He's right if you ask me, the writeup analysis is just wifom. You can hardly attack tevash for not going after mafia hard and fast when hardly anyone in the game has.Post 390: Right in the middle of the post count list. How convenient to avoid being lynched for lurking, but to avoid detection.
399: "I don't find these writeup analysis to be particularly powerful evidence since they could be relatively easily forged by the mafiosos given the revelation that the second one was taken from another game. As such, the analysis so far, IMO, only leads to WIFOM"
Suggests analysis is futile, after half-hearted attempts at analysis. The futility, the lack of energy, the lack of controversy, the lack of suspects, the lack of will, the lack of decisiveness. All say scum to me, and Tevash is no slouch. He's slouching here.
Fifth: Reposting my original case on YLC:
If we do make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia (which I would be inclined to believe), then a couple people start to look scummy. First is YLC.
Connection with Lord Winter: possible anxious response upon my questioning of Lord Winter. The set of posts are linked to in this post of his. His accusation is that Lord Winter and I are inventing something to argue over. He appears to stand quite strongly behind this accusation, and leads of the next day of voting with a vote for me. In that light his abandonment of his case and the reversal of his previous position is suspicious. His vote tied lord winter with me. Now, the mafia know that after one of them is lynched it will be revealed to a certain extent the next day (the town will still have to consider that it is a mafia trick). So under what circumstances would they attack a partner in order to make themselves look more innocent? This part doesn't look too bad for YLC. Lord Winter was not a guaranteed lynch, YLC's vote contributed significantly to his lynching. But that is in hindsight. At the time, who know how many votes LW was going to get?
The other mark against YLC comes from the tiebreaker voting. He seemed to be in a hurry to end the tiebreaker. When he thought it was a revote he wanted me lynched, when he thought it was a runoff and his vote would end it he switched to Seamus. He voted Seamus again in the 2nd tiebreak of sorts. His reasoning for these votes is sketchy, something about a "little voice in his head" and my post about lord winter.
In summary, his reasoning behind his votes is scant and his willingness to string anyone up and completely reverse his position is scummy, and becomes doubly so if we assume Lord Winter was mafia.
After writing this out I'm tempted to ignore the patient approach and vote for ylc now, but I think I'll wait to see what he says before deciding that.
************************
In summary I don't think either of these two can be considered trustworthy--they both need to be lynched imo.
Vote:Askthepizzaguy
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
vote: YLC
I would leave ATPG alone on the bases of effort he put into his write up (Poor reasoning, but let him explain his points at least), when YLC is just as suspicious really, often avoiding accusations by being busy, true or false as it is unknown either way. Other than ATPG defending him for no reason his previous suicide vote just to change it, and then change it back, very dis honest townie behavior. Suicide moves are stupid anyway, but unvoting one, even if you change back to yourself is very suspicious. Finally he states his suspects, just to change his vote entirely when the vote is a run off and not completely from scratch, why should it matter?
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Hmm... ATPG and YLC are totally scum in my august opinion (note: I accused them yesterday, but ATPG's response just made my suspicion a lot lot worse)
His case against me is just ludicrous, and from his reasonings ANYONE who tried to become the CoP would be scummy as only Godfathers would do that... yeah right...
I also think his "SkyNet", although a worthy piece of work, is not a standard piece of post analysis machine that Holmes was (post count/post length is a lot better than opinions on their posts, more mechanical that way and less tinged by personal opinions.) so I would not trust it as much as Holmes.
Lynch ATPG and YLC my fellow citizens!
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
Methinks you guys are missing the boat here.
It is better to conquer yourself than to win a thousand battles. Then, the victory is yours. It cannot be taken from you, not by angels or by demons, heaven or hell.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
LG willingly withdrawing his vote on me,
Vote ? I haven't withdrawn a vote...
due to town pressure
I can't see anything wrong with conforming to what the town wants to a certain degree...
this is what i said
My 'attack' on Jolt seems to have brought a little suspicion or just criticism for bad townie behaviour, if you really believe im being counter productive to the town with my focus on Jolt i am willing to step back from it,
Which seems fair enough to me, i had a bad feeling about a certain player but everyone else didn't see it as paticularly helpful so i was willing to step back from it... which certainly seems ok to me, or would it be better for the town not to work together...
plus the fact that everyone has seen that I'm town seems wierd.
There are no confirmed innocents in this game... due to the rules even the dead aren't 100% confirmed (though likely)
I wish someone investigate him.
I actively encourage it!
I find his behaviour increasingly strange and counter-productive.
I already covered the strange part... the counter productive part could be wrong though... many times the town will lynch the wrong player so not sticking to the one or two suspects available could actually be more productive...
which i basically said with my line about no viable suspects...
the other reason which i may not have mentioned was in my last game i had a bad feeling about boudica and made a vote to that effect as well.. but i just assumed my instincts were clicking at nothing... and when i found out my instincts had been right (for once!) i was annoyed at myself... think i mentioned that at the end of th game...
So because of this i decided to pay a bit more attention to my instincts... unfortunatly due to your death it seems my instinct was well off... and i guess i probably owe you an apology... sorry
You mentioned being offended earlier in the game when i mentioned your english... i apologise for this also!
I may be wrong but mafia i am not..!
Last edited by LittleGrizzly; 02-13-2009 at 00:04.
In remembrance of our great Admin Tosa Inu, A tireless worker with the patience of a saint. As long as I live I will not forget you. Thank you for everything!
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
I for one don't believe the mafia will voluntarily drop back to one kill a night for two subsequent nights in a row this early in the game.
Yes, it can be a trick, but making your kills count, narrows down the odds of getting lynched by the townies who, in most games, act unpredicatable. Many mafiosi felt comfortable in the past, thinking they did very well getting no attention and eventually got lynched in the last rounds.
Following that, Lord Winter was very likely scum.
Sasaki is spot on about it being suspicious how ATPG all of the sudden changed his mind and voted Lord Winter.
Even if Lord Winter wasn't scum, it is still rather suspicious.
Also note that in the post in which he voted Lord Winter, he also said he would go after GSC the next round. Instead of doing that, he suggests that we lynch Reenk Roink, Tevashzat and shlin28 in the next three rounds.
In a way, assuming ATPG is scum, this puts GSC in a bad daylight as well. Was he just ATPG's scapegoat or was it a tactic to create distance between him and his mafia buddy?
Vote : Askthepizzaguy
Fos : GSC
Last edited by Andres; 02-13-2009 at 00:08.
Andres is our Lord and Master and could strike us down with thunderbolts or beer cans at any time. ~Askthepizzaguy
Ja mata, TosaInu
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
We have had sasaki leading the lynching proceedings yesterday and now it appears sasaki and atpg are leading the lynch for this one... both are skillful players and could be mafia misleading us... don't be too quick to trust the logic of either...
Or really amusingly they are mafia working together to try and really confuse the crap out of us...(though i doubt it)
Ok here's my read on the situation... (i hardly ever make long posts so i am allowed two in a row with no wall of text complaints!)
YLC... probably not mafia... very risky strategy he employed which has put him right into the limelight and was extremely close to getting him killed yesterday and a top candidate for today... considering his situation before he employed this strategy would be a very bad mafia move...
Sasaki.. could be mafia leading us to lynch successive townies... or a helpful townie trying to pick out the mafia... i really couldn't begin to guess what he is...
ATPG.. my main reason to suspect him is because he try's so damn hard to look innocent, again its a risky strategy but he has shown a few times he is willing to die trying to prove his innocence as a townie... though he could have been building up to this mafia game and over the last few games gave himself the perfect cover
One last thing... I think we are putting far too much into getting the write ups from other games... it occured to me after we were analysing the text of first night kills that you could copy paste from somewhere... i didn't think of copy pasting a whole kill but it isn't a huge leap of logic for a mafia worrying about his writing style being detected... and then how hard excactly is it to go to a mafia game (whether you took part or not) and taking a kill from there, all it is is a little work, and most mafia are willing to put in that work
Some threads like the godfather even have thier own seperate summary thread... so you don't even have to look for the kills...
In remembrance of our great Admin Tosa Inu, A tireless worker with the patience of a saint. As long as I live I will not forget you. Thank you for everything!
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