The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded]

[TinCow]

I'm going to support Reenk here. As noted before, I think the songs are GH's attempts to give the town hints. Lyrics for the latest song:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Lime and limpid green, a second scene
A fight between the blue you once knew.
Floating down, the sound resounds
Around the icy waters underground.
Jupiter and Saturn, Oberon, Miranda and Titania.
Neptune, Titan, Stars can frighten.
Lime and limpid green, a second scene
A fight between the blue you once knew.
Floating down, the sound resounds
Around the icy waters underground.
Jupiter and Saturn, Oberon, Miranda and Titania.
Neptune, Titan, Stars can frighten.
Blinding signs flap,
Flicker, flicker, flicker blam. Pow, pow.
Stairway scare Dan dare who's there?
Lime and limpid green, the sounds around
The icy waters under
Lime and limpid green, the sounds around
The icy waters underground.

The bolded bits are the only things that seem significant to me. Green. Green can mean two things in the context of this game: Moderators or pevergreen. The only moderator left alive is Andres.

FoS: Andres and pevergreen

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Last time GH left clues in the writeup it was to reveal late in the game that he'd left the detective out. I doubt he decide to reveal the godfather in one song when none of the others have fit that pattern. Besides I don't see a basis for the assumption you made that the limpid green line is the important one. What about "Stars can frighten"? This could imply that the town is pursuing "mafia stars" who have done well in previous games.

[TinCow]

I do agree it's not the best evidence, and I wouldn't lynch on the basis of the songs alone. However, I seem to recall that GH expressed after Mafia VIII (or whatever game it was) that he thought he had made the clues too hard. I would expect his clues to be slightly easier in this game because of that. Also, GH isn't necessarily hinting at the Godfather. He could very well be pointing out the nude unicyclist or something else related to the 'twist.' It's even possible that 2 or 3 mafioso are still alive (if 3, they've been cleverly sticking to 1 kill per night to mislead us). If this is indeed pointing to Andres or pevergreen, they could simply be a grunt. Finally, while you have a point about the 'stars can frighten' bit, I think that's nowhere near as prominent a theme in the song as the green bit. The stars bit occurs twice, the green occurs four times. If the song is meant to tell us something, I would place money on it being the dominant theme of the song, not something vague.

[Chaotix]

Bah. I suppose I was probably going to die sometime during this game anyway.

The kill write-up in fact does make it blatantly obvious that someone is trying to frame Reenk. At best, we can trust Reenk a bit more. At worst, it's total WIFOM. I'd put it at 50-50 whether Reenk is innocent now. I could totally see Reenk framing himself to make himself look innocent.

Either way, I don't think Andres is the best choice. We should go after one of the lurkers, but I doubt anyone is going to vote for Reenk at this point.

[Beefy187]

We have 4 more opportunities to lynch if there is only GF left
3 more if theres one grunt and GF
2 more if theres two grunt and GF

Round of applause to Beefy for his outstanding math skills and fact that he realize GF implies girlfriend instead of God Father.

There is two obvious lurkers around, which is taka and glyphz.
I don't like lurkers.. there is players like Roadkill, Tevash and taka on the Org who are very clever silent killers. Glyphz has also won in the past just by not talking at all..

Someone who I will not vote for are Reenk and Pevergreen. I don't think the host will randomly choose a GF to be the CoP. That will be severely unfair for the town. YLC showed suicidal behavior which almost got him self lynched. However the mafia kill so far was not something like we witnessed in Chicago, going after suspects. I think mafia we are looking for are cautious player who won't risk suicidal moves like that.

As for the rest of us... They all look scummy but taka and glyphz stands out for me.

FoS: taka and glyphz

for now. Ill vote them later

[Chaotix]

Someone who I will not vote for are Reenk and Pevergreen. I don't think the host will randomly choose a GF to be the CoP. That will be severely unfair for the town.
for now. Ill vote them later

Err... not to shoot holes in your logic, there, but I think the point of it being a random selection of the CoP means there is an equal chance of mafia being chosen as anyone else. The selection was "random", not "random except for the Godfather".

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

Reenk's selection as CoP does not exonerate him at all, as Chaotix has pointed out. However I don't think he is guilty.

Following Quintus's post I'm going to Vote:Taka. Quintus and Beefy together make a good case for him being a 'silent' killer.

Haven't got much time today, but I'll be back tomorrow or tuesday with an analysis of the remaining players, whether I'm lynched, or killed, in the meantime or not.

[Beefy187]

Err... not to shoot holes in your logic, there, but I think the point of it being a random selection of the CoP means there is an equal chance of mafia being chosen as anyone else. The selection was "random", not "random except for the Godfather".

I figured that. But if we keep on lynching the CoP...

Beside its Reenk. its REENK!

[taka]

i too dont believe that Reenk is mafia, or else the host is really us up

i'm not fussed to be lynched, that will give me a bit more time to spend on the smaller games which i feel more comfortable with (less reading )

I'll vote: glyphz since it would be either him or me i think and i obviously know im innocent

edit:

sorry, forgot ^^

[GeneralHankerchief]

Bold votes please.

[Beefy187]

Vote: Glyphz

Least taka is here.. Glyphz isn't.

I think we need to lynch at least one.. if not all the lurkers in this game. I just hate letting people win who doesn't put in much effort..

Unless someone builds up a solid case against someone ales my vote goes for Glyphz...

[glyphz]

Okay, finally starting to catch up (from p. 39), but took a look first at the summary thread. This one caught my attention.
Day 7

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[QUOTE=GeneralHankerchief;2142813]Post 1216 of main thread.

Day 7

Today was Seamus Fermanagh's birthday. Upon informing the citizens of the Gameroom of this fact early on in the voting, everybody stopped what they were doing and threw an impromptu party for one of the town's finest residents. It was a nice little break from the frightening monotony of "witness death, face execution, repeat." Everyone had a merry time, forgetting about their fears, if only for a little while.

As the voting phase dragged on (without the Chief of Police present), so did the party. Presents were exchanged, most of them promises that would be honored should they "ever get through this". Somehow, one of the villagers even managed to get their hands on a cake that even had "Happy Birthday Seamus" written in fancy script with icing.

Seamus, honored, cut up the cake and divvied it up between the remaining villagers, saving the biggest slice for himself. What the hey, the chances were good that he was going to die the next couple of days, why not live a little? Later, someone brought back a large case of beer, probably nicked from the Elephant and Cannon Pub.

Merrily, the villagers indulged themselves, and eventually they all started to slur their voices and indulge some deep secrets. It was not uncommon to hear phrases like "You're my besht friend" and "For He's a Jolly Good Fellow" choruses aimed at Seamus that day. The merrymaking continued for a few more hours, and many of the villagers had the best time they had in months, yet alone since the Mafia had began killing everybody.

Eventually, Chief of Police shlin28, looking tanner and satisfied, returned, perplexed at the scene.

"Wait, you people were having a party and no one invited me??!?!" Everybody was silent for a few seconds, and then they all burst out laughing, including shlin. After the laughter died down, the Chief of Police asked everybody if they had come to a decision.

"GUILTY!" a plurality of villagers shouted in unison, pointing their fingers at the birthday boy.

"Oh, *#%!", Seamus muttered, and trudged up to the execution platform. The party was over. Along the way, he continued muttering to himself, and then eventually lashed out at the villagers, calling them all fools, protesting his innocence. Eventually shlin had to intervene as he took hold of Seamus and dragged him forcefully the rest of the way.

"Well, at least there'll be fireworks for the party," shlin said to a thoroughly-depressed Seamus as he shoved him into the cannon. "Too bad it'll be you. Happy Birthday, Seamus," he said, grinning, as he stepped back and lit the match.

"All right, everybody," shlin said, addressing the crowd. "Three... two... one..."

BOOM!

Everybody cheered as Seamus Fermanagh, the day's final festivity, was spectacularly launched into the night, shooting far and wide, and eventually out of everybody's sight. The next town over, in his office, Vincenzo stood up with a start as a charred figure crashed through his window. Recognizing the body as Seamus's, he raised one eyebrow.

Day 7 tally:

Seamus Fermanagh: 4 (Reenk Roink, LittleGrizzly, taka, White_eyes:D)
shlin28: 3 (Andres, Quintus.JC, Seamus Fermanagh)
Reenk Roink: 2 (Chaotix27, Gaius Scribonius Curio)
taka: 1 (pevergreen)

Abstained: 3 (shlin28, glyphz, Beefy187)
Didn't vote: 1 (777Ares777)

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Still alive: (13)
shlin28
pevergreen
777Ares777
Andres
Quintus.JC
White_eyes:D
Chaotix27
Reenk Roink
glyphz
Beefy187
taka
LittleGrizzly
Gaius Scribonius Curio

The more I read this, the more I think Seamus was the last grunt. This was a lynch write-up, so no tampering.
Doubt Vincenzo being included (in the write-up) was random. Him recognizing Seamus means something, IMO. I think this event implies that he's now by himself.

Next night N7...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Post 1251 of main thread.

Night 7

LittleGrizzly was sitting at his home watching T.V. When he heard a knock on the door. He was no fool though, after all the murders that had taken place he had a deadbolt chain-locked door to prevent intruders and stayed away from windows, so he wouldn't be shot by a sniper. He didn't want to be a easy kill, so he answered the door carefully.

When he opened the door with the chain on, there was a man in a business suit, who looked real down. Letting his guard down, he let the man in as he said he had something he wanted to discuss and it was "life threatening". LittleGrizzly was no fool though, he had the man sit on his couch and wait while he went to get some "snacks" which in this case, was a twelve gauge shotgun. Then he came back, only to find him gone. "Damn, I might have let the killer slip though our fingers", growled LittleGrizzly, he then found a box where the man had sat down. Curiosity got the better of him and he decided to open it up and KABLOOEE!! his house, along with several others were wiped off the Gameroom map. Once again, all the Chief of Police found when he arrived was a DVD entitled 'For Seamus', along with massive destruction.

Chief of Police shlin28, after watching and then discarding the DVD, was very annoyed. He had been hard at work all through the night and even the day, creating his greatest lynch method yet in the Gameroom Park. He had been "in the zone", so to speak, and having to drive to the murder scene to deal with yet another explosion had taken him out of his element. Whoever was to get executed tonight had better deserve every second of the awesomeness shlin was about to unleash, strictly for interrupting his work, yet alone killing off most of the town.

After a couple more labor-intensive hours, shlin finally took a step back, looked over at the man with a boombox playing "All My Life" by the Foo Fighters, and looked back at his work.

"There," he said, "It's done. Time to call everybody over."

Some minutes later, the villagers arrived and stared at was was before them. Despite shlin's pronouncements that this would be the greatest method of execution known to mankind, all they saw was leftover stuff from the previous few executions.

"Oh, you'll see," said shlin with a wicked grin on his face. "You will see."

...there was one kill, same as the last one, but the killer left a dedication to Seamus. There was also only 1 other case like this was Night 6: for Sasaki, and one night (N5) after he was killed by the unicyclist, who seems like a different faction from the mafia (the twist?) and seems like to be Psychonaut ( if it is you).
edit: I've yet to check the links

Theory (or at least the vibes I'm getting):
Sasaki Kojiro and Seamus Fermanagh were the grunts.
Take note that both are moderators (green) and seasoned veterans.
Question is who is the Godfather? Or who is likelier to pick Sasaki and Seamus (as his cohorts)?

Someone who has at least played w/ both? Don't know how much it would narrow the field, even if it were a legitimate question.

Still alive:
pevergreen (GH not allowing YLC to be WoG-ed due to inactivity... A role? Then again, if my theory fits, why would YLC want to abandon such a role?)
777Ares777
Andres (as TinCow mentioned, the last moderator standing. Could he have masterminded a green 'rush' against the blues?)
Quintus.JC (unless I'm mistaken, you've put quite an effort to push attention to 'low-posters.' Understandable, or suspicious)
White_eyes:D
Reenk Roink (a very bad coincidence if you were scum and chosen to be the replacement CoP by chance)
Beefy187 (100 posts! Then again, you tend to be in the upper tier in post count in games. Still..)
taka
Gaius Scribonius Curio (Veteran, but do not know much regarding your behavior, thus I cannot judge your activity)

My guesses, but I have doubts about its accuracy. I would appreciate someone giving me a hand on this (or your thoughts, at least).

Tally:

glyphz: 2 - 777Ares777, Beefy187
taka: 1 - Gaius Scribonius Curio

more edits:
attempt at some sort of defense (or for the sake of one)...
I think my post count so far, is pretty similar to previous behavior, not very talkative or 'lurkish' if you will. Relevant or not, I have missed at least 2 votes, and could be an eligible candidate to be WoG-ed, the next time I miss another one. Wouldn't you say that is risky for someone w/ a role, esp. one of the last remaining scum/s?

Anyway, I'd pick between Andres and pevergreen, but em still undecided. Heck, if town (still thinks I'm dubious) wants it, i'll stop posting and (eventually) get WoG-ed. I'd be fine w/ it, and I'd be in every sense be truly LURKING.

[Quintus.JC]

FoS: taka and glyphz

for now. Ill vote them later

I still don’t trust Curio, he probably isn’t classified as a lurker, but some of his posts just seemed to stay off the radar.

Reenk's selection as CoP does not exonerate him at all, as Chaotix has pointed out. However I don't think he is guilty.

Following Quintus's post I'm going to Vote:Taka. Quintus and Beefy together make a good case for him being a 'silent' killer.

Haven't got much time today, but I'll be back tomorrow or tuesday with an analysis of the remaining players, whether I'm lynched, or killed, in the meantime or not.

The above post really complies with Andres’ suspicion of him; slightly lurky, not offering his full opinion, Curio is normally much more in depth than this. Also the neutral tone in his posts, he has been off the radar throughout the game, with the exception of Andres no one has really put any pressure on him.

i too dont believe that Reenk is mafia, or else the host is really 'ing us up

i'm not fussed to be lynched, that will give me a bit more time to spend on the smaller games which i feel more comfortable with (less reading )

I'll vote: glyphz since it would be either him or me i think and i obviously know im innocent

Taka’s defence is consistent with all the other games – busy in RealLife. And he genuinely doesn’t seems too fussed about getting lynched either, so I’m less certain about him.

Theory (or at least the vibes I'm getting):
Sasaki Kojiro and Seamus Fermanagh were the grunts.
Take note that both are moderators (green) and seasoned veterans.
Question is who is the Godfather? Or who is likelier to pick Sasaki and Seamus (as his cohorts)?

Someone who has at least played w/ both? Don't know how much it would narrow the field, even if it were a legitimate question.

Sasaki and Seamus would both be extremely dangerous picks since both are seasoned veterans, and therefore too obvious to be picked, but then they would be great picks because no one would be risky enough to pick them. I still think its unlikely that a person would pick both of them to be grunts though.

This is officially the first game I’ve played with Sasaki. Mafia VIII really shouldn’t count since it was my first mafia game and I practically got lost between all the FOS and the WOGs.

attempt at some sort of defense (or for the sake of one)...
I think my post count so far, is pretty similar to previous behavior, not very talkative or 'lurkish' if you will. Relevant or not, I have missed at least 2 votes, and could be an eligible candidate to be WoG-ed, the next time I miss another one. Wouldn't you say that is risky for someone w/ a role, esp. one of the last remaining scum/s?

Your post count and pattern is very similar to previous behaviour, problem is with this style you’ ve evaded attention and got to the end game as mafia countless times. Everyone remembers Ephesus, you also lurked in Whisper in the Night as mafia and got the last round (in the form of a perfect silence killer as well), with a team of Stonecutters you also survived the Simpsons mafia and emerged victorious after killing all the townsfolks.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Another failure on my part.

I am going to commit seppuku and shut up. But frankly I think Reenk is a good choice.



Good play by the mafia in this one. Lurkers are also fine with me.

[glyphz]

Sasaki and Seamus would both be extremely dangerous picks since both are seasoned veterans, and therefore too obvious to be picked, but then they would be great picks because no one would be risky enough to pick them. I still think its unlikely that a person would pick both of them to be grunts though.

Unlikely you might say, but my theory stems from the write-up progression (lynch write-ups > kill write-ups), more notable in the separate Summary thread, where it filters out the 'noise.' IMO, in such a classic game, reliable info comes out of write-ups (again, lynch write-ups > kill write-ups) & authentic detective reveal (sigh). I do suggest reading the write-ups in order, Sasaki's and especially Seamus' circumstances ('death,' 'post-death') are unique and IMO obvious 'tells.'

Your post count and pattern is very similar to previous behaviour, problem is with this style you’ ve evaded attention and got to the end game as mafia countless times. Everyone remembers Ephesus, you also lurked in Whisper in the Night as mafia and got the last round (in the form of a perfect silence killer as well), with a team of Stonecutters you also survived the Simpsons mafia and emerged victorious after killing all the townsfolks.

The defense (or an excuse for one) was for the sake of one, other than "I'm innocent!." Can't really prove it. No way I can.
You're opinion, however, is an affirmation, of what I want to act if I get scum roles: not very distinguishable when I play townie. Even if it bites me when I play games where I'm pro-town (Such as this game, dare I say).

[Beefy187]

So I accuse Glyphz and he shows up with a great analysis

Unvote: Glyphz

For now.. I'm lost again...

[pevergreen]

So I accuse Glyphz and he shows up with a great analysis

Unvote: Glyphz

For now.. I'm lost again...

Simply analysing does not mean he is innocent. Good defences can come from mafia. That is what he is doing, defending himself.

Vote: Glyphz

Just to put the pressure back on.

I'm still looking at you Ares.

[glyphz]

Simply analysing does not mean he is innocent. Good defences can come from mafia. That is what he is doing, defending himself.

Vote: Glyphz

Just to put the pressure back on.

I'm still looking at you Ares.

Vote away.
But I tell you, 'that' was not much of a defense. Contribution was my priority, the defense was an edit/add-on, didn't originally plan on posting one. I don't plan of defendding myself further.
I must, however, ask your opinion regarding my analysis?

[Quintus.JC]

Right now I'm considerating putting my vote on either Glyphz or Curio...

Since many have already voted for Glyphz I will vote: Curio, he won't he able to defend himself because of inactivities but at least I'm the first one to vote for him.

[Beefy187]

Another failure on my part.

I am going to commit seppuku and shut up. But frankly I think Reenk is a good choice.



Good play by the mafia in this one. Lurkers are also fine with me.

Im willing to let Reenk go.. I honestly don't think the host will put him on CoP duty. I don't think ill be damaged much if Reenk managed to win. His been nice to me, and his been playing extremely risky game for a GF.

glyphz wouldn't be too bad for a lynch. He might be mafia and even his not, we can count on his further contribution with his analysis.

taka and Ares scares me. They don't smell at all like a scum to me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

EDIT: Deleted. See SkyNet below.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I accuse 777Ares777

The spoiler is the complete list of your actions, more or less, in the game. it has not been formatted for easy viewing, so I am going to follow Andres and Tincow's advice and skip down to the HUMANISH version:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

777Ares777

Page 1: nothing
Page 2: Elected shlin28, made baby-eating jokes.
Page 3: Says that baby leg eaters should commit suicide.
Abstains.
Page 4: Votes glyphz for bad vote reason.
"I would also mention, that some clever mafia point out clues that involve themselves, as if to deflect suspicion on that topic away from themselves, pointing out a clue could be good analyzing or it could be in association with the persons role."
"That would seem scummy, and i would be tempted to vote for sasaki for evening doing that...."
Ares has trouble with proper grammar and spelling.
"Seriously, Tincow, the mistakes were intentional, your name was spelt as tincown, 'n' is the other end of the keyboard than the real last letter, which is 'w' the him mistake working similarly, i don't think it was bad grammar..."
Defends Beefy and talks about the night writeups spelling mistakes.
post 273 the same.
Votes Sasaki instead for trying to save himself. Makes a stink when people ignore that.
Page 5:
Continues hammering Sasaki.
"perry mason? mason? does this suggest we have masons? (a townie pair) maybe the boombox guy and the nude unicyclist are the masons, seeing as that unicyclist keeps being mentioned."
Good analysis.

Again questions Sasaki.

Asks the unicyclist and boombox guy to claim.

Page 6
Votes TinCow
"Mafia would logically kill off the active, so bye bye me, ATPG, tincow and andres "
Nothing else page 6.

Not much page 7.

Nothing page 8.

Comes back page 9 and accuses Ignoramus and YLC.

Accuses me, too.

Gives evidence I might be scum post 704

Votes YLC (defends me for some reason...)

TINCOWS ANALYSIS 745:
"Triple number 111 indicates 777Ares777?"

Not much activity pages 10 and 11.

Defends both people on the chopping block. 805.

Vote: TevashSzat... sucks up to me AFTER suggesting I was scum!

ABSTAINS!

Page 12: Is "convinced I am innocent", yes.


If Ares were the Godfather, he sees his chance at victory here. By sucking up to me and clearing me, he assumes I will overlook him. Good assumption.

Votes tevash again to bandwagon him/ follow me. Something the Godfather would do.

Page 14: Again accuses Sasaki.

Nothing page 15.

Page 16
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...postcount=1245

If he were the Godfather, given what happened all game, this is exactly the sort of thing he would post.

"BAH! JUST POSTED LOADS AND MY BROWSER FROZE!
~ from what ive read (and im not bothering with punctuation, the quicker i retype this the better!)

sorry for my unintentional lurking fest

~Seamus did not look suspicious too me at all

~lurkers shouldnt be let off the hook, glyphz and taka, lurkers here, have won as mafia in other games recently via lurking, so top suspects


@pevergreen
why the vendetta against me?

@white eyes
why are you convinced reenk is the boombox guy? i doubt both of the park inhabitants were innocent, could the boombox guy be the godfather?

@ATPG
ylc/pevergreen do not look that innocent to me, why do you continually defend him, with so little evidence? Also I wouldnt want to be chief of police, im not a good boss and I'd hate to have my privilege of voting took away, thanks"

refuses the Chief of Police role. Gives excuse (browser froze) for not doing more. Precisely the same excuse Rythmic gave in Family Guy.

Defends Beefy.

Lazy analysis post 1252

Page 17
Votes glyphz, a lurker.

1351
"Chances are most of the actives, shlin, reenk etc are likely innocent"

Votes Taka. here right before the night phase.

Page 18:
Votes glyphz/lurking.

Early game: Lots of jokes and activity. Has trouble with grammar and spelling. Defends Beefy187 and talks about the game writeups. Begins hammering Sasaki Kojiro. Doesn't let up on him for a while.

Early/middle game:
Activity drops off substantially. He posts once or twice a page, and is absent for long periods. Lazily accuses YLC and Ignoramus, who both turn out to be innocent or 99% innocent.

Accuses me, which is fine. But then he suddenly does an about face and gets a stroke of genius: Defend Askthepizzaguy.

Middle/late game:
Nothing much in activity pages 10 or 11. Is "convinced I am innocent" page 12 (80ppp)

Totally bandwagons TevashSzat and follows my lead completely. At this point he drops below everyone's radar, allowing me to make a giant mess of things while he starts to lurk.

Late game:
Defends beefy some more later... does a lazy analysis post 1252, and starts voting lurkers.

He is very adamant and outspoken about his belief that the heavy posters are innocent (convenient, since he's a heavy poster) and the lurkers must be guilty.



_____________

Activity:
He was here for every single night phase, from my earlier activity report on shlin28... where I wasn't even focused on him! I was very thorough for a reason...

voting pattern:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

D1 = Sigurd, changed to Shlin.
D2 = abstained but then switched to glyphz and Sasaki
D2 runoff between Ichigo and Seamus = no vote
D3 = Tincow, but switched to Sigurd
D4 = no vote (imputed abstention)
D5 = ylc
D5 runoff between Tevash and Pizza = Tevash, switched to abstain (post Tevash detective reveal)
D6 = Tevash
D7 = no vote (imputed abstention)

he does some bold votes in the early game, but later on he starts abstaining more, and bandwagoning more, and voting for the lurkers.

Analysis: the character of his voting has changed to suit his needs. Instead of doing proper analyses, he sees fit to abstain (less suspicion on him that way) or bandwagon the lurkers or the people I have accused.



Bottom line:

His activity during all the night phases is a tell. His early accuse of me, followed by a sudden reversal, followed by massive amounts of "post-lurking" (lurk, lurk, lurk, quickpost, disappear) shows that he wants to lurk and not gain attention, but not get fingered for lurking. He's made a point of arguing that people who post more are innocent.

Ever since I did my earlier judgment call that he was innocent, he's been basically sucking up to me. He's been gliding through the game with no suspicion on him of note, he's been very active but hasn't contributed that much, especially in the late game where he's been forced to make big decisions which he's backed off from.

From this, if he were the Godfather, his strategy seems obvious. Show up and do your night murders, and lurk during the day, do a lazy post here and there to keep the post count high enough, support the bandwagon on most everyone I've accused, and pick on the lurkers.


Is he scum? This isn't proof. However. If he were the Godfather, this would explain a lot.


Refuses the Chief of Police role. Gives excuse (browser froze) for not doing more. Precisely the same excuse Rythmic gave in Family Guy.


He's never had any real heat on him. His mafia scum partners would probably have avoided mentioning him altogether, and if they did mention him, they never would have gone after him.

He's the top candidate at the moment to be the Godfather.

[White_eyes:D]

Once again everybody seems to have there own ideas who is guilty.....feels like "Chicago Soiree" all over again......

[Askthepizzaguy]

Say the word, White_eyes, and I will stop posting.

[White_eyes:D]

No at least your giving me some back-up thoughts.....I was going to vote taka.....but now....not so sure....

[CountArach]

Accuses me, which is fine. But then he suddenly does an about face and gets a stroke of genius: Defend Askthepizzaguy.

This to me seems like the most damning piece of evidence and I would think that an explanation is in order.

[Askthepizzaguy]

No at least your giving me some back-up thoughts.....I was going to vote taka.....but now....not so sure....

Folks, if you will bear with me, I am almost done doing my small part of this game. All I can do is a lot of legwork. You must decide. This is my FINAL SkyNet analysis for this game. If, after this, I fail to produce the Godfather, I am scrapping SkyNet forever.

And, when I am done doing this final analysis, I will drop off the face of the earth.


To give more on why refusing to be the CoP is scummy:

What townie does that? What mafia does that, you say?

He knows the mafia have fewer votes when that happens. He wants to control the endgame. He does not want to give up that control. Nor does he want to be in the spotlight. What townie would pass up a chance to be one of the final 3 remaining?

Only the mafia would refuse to be the CoP, so far as I can tell. Pose your reasons why any one of you townies would refuse. It's an offer you can't refuse. True, eventually he couldn't choose... but I have a feeling he protested his case to GH, who said "randomly".

[Askthepizzaguy]

Taka

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Nothing page 2
3: Votes Ichigo
4: Nothing
5: Nothing
6: Abstains, promises to contribute more later. Makes himself lynchbait.

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=586

Basically points out that lurking will get him killed.
Post 599... good point.
Votes Sigurd.

Lots of votes and pressure on Taka, but no one defends him and he doesn't stop lurking.
I could end my analysis right here. Taka does a capper vote on Sigurd, very risky move if the Godfather

More pressure on Taka by page 9.
10: nothing
11. Votes: TevashSzat. Tevash FOS'es Taka. Lord Winter FOS'es Taka.

Hold it right there.
I think we agree that Tevash and Lord Winter seem like scum. They both FoS'ed Taka. Taka has been under pressure all game for lurking, and hasn't bothered to defend himself. He hasn't been murdered because he's lynchbait. He doesn't care if he dies. He makes a "too risky" move by being one of the deciding votes on Sigurd.

Chance of being scum is too low, given the other suspects and how people haven't defended him at all. I even suggested it would be OK to lynch all the lurkers before the game is over. I never fully cleared him, I said lynch him before the game is over. No one reacted. No one cares if he dies.

He's innocent, if the reasoning holds. Feel free to correct me or tell me to shush up.



glyphz:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Glyphz:

Page 2: Elects TinCow
Page 3: Random votes Ares, switches to Chaotix for what seems like legitimate "post in front of me... oops, wrong person" reasons.
Page 4: Ares asks glyphz to suicide vote because technically, he was the post in front of him. Then Ares votes glyphz with no real reasoning.
Votes Seamus to give us a choice besides Ichigo, as I said before.
Page 5: nothing
6: Tally
7: nothing
8: Chaotix votes glyphz for lurking. he never protests this.
9: Post 663 he presents a defense.
10: Tally
11: Nothing
12: Votes for me due to Tevash's reveal. Asks me to continue postmortem.
Votes Tevash to tie. Debates the merits of my case. Warns me that he could vote me again because my case is unravelling. Goes back to sleep.
13: Makes a note that if Tevash doesn't reveal soon, it's probably a forged PM.
14: Abstains.
15: Is questioned and gives a response:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...postcount=1175
16: Ares accuses glyphz of being a top suspect.
Others pressure vote glyphz, but the dog isn't barking. QJC doesnt trust him.
17: Ares votes glyphz.
Votes shlin28 on fair reasoning. Capper vote on shlin28.
18: QJC calls for Taka or glyphz' head. Sasaki's top suspect.
Ares votes glyphz again.
Taka votes glyphz.
White Eyes FOS' Taka and glyphz.
Beefy votes glyphz.

His final defense:
"attempt at some sort of defense (or for the sake of one)...
I think my post count so far, is pretty similar to previous behavior, not very talkative or 'lurkish' if you will. Relevant or not, I have missed at least 2 votes, and could be an eligible candidate to be WoG-ed, the next time I miss another one. Wouldn't you say that is risky for someone w/ a role, esp. one of the last remaining scum/s?

Anyway, I'd pick between Andres and pevergreen, but em still undecided. Heck, if town (still thinks I'm dubious) wants it, i'll stop posting and (eventually) get WoG-ed. I'd be fine w/ it, and I'd be in every sense be truly LURKING."

Activity: Active 3 nights out of 6 that I analyzed.

Voting pattern:

Seamus 2a
didnt vote 3
Capper on Sigurd day 4
Abstains 5
Tevash 5a (to tie)
Abstains 6
Abstains 7
Capper on Shlin day 8

Analysis:
Lurks most of the game, but makes risky CAPPER votes frequently. Thats risky for the Godfather because anyone who makes a decisive vote is suspicious when the game continues. Especially if they are lurking. And that's fair, but not always correct reasoning to suspect someone.

He's been under fire all game, and does not care. NO ONE IS DEFENDING HIM.

He's been inactive totally 3 nights out of 6 that I looked at. Not proof, but it's interesting.

And finally, his voting pattern is just... risky. Abstaining means you let town decide who dies. Capper votes make you a suspect.

So what if he lurked to victory in other games? He knows no one will let him do that again. Fellows, the cojones on glyphz if he were the Godfather, based on this evidence, tells me something.

But go ahead and lynch him with my blessing for lurking.

Thats the analysis of our top 2 lurkers. Make of it what you will.

White_Eyes:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

2: Elects Reenk
3: lynch method suggestion
4: Abstains, then Votes Ichigo
A deciding vote so early on a townie? Unlikely to be Godfather.
Page 5: Good analysis of the writeups and game in general starts here. See post 375.
6: Votes Lord Winter. Doesn't let up on him. Talks to me without hesitation.
More important than being a capper vote, he votes Lord Winter before he was doomed, unlike me
7: One of White_eyes' previous writeups is used.
Page 9: Came to similar conclusions as me, and encouraged my analysis.
Page 11: Unwilling to trust either me, or Sasaki. Votes for me over Tevash.
Questions Ignoramus for popping up at this critical vote... naturally.
Questions my analysis because it is biased. Thanks me for trying anyway.
Page 13: Thinks unicyclist is the vigilante, and hammers Reenk.
14: Votes Seamus.
15: Next round, follows up on Seamus. CAPPER VOTE ON SEAMUS.
Invites Seamus to investigate him.
16: Votes lurker glyphz.
17: Still has a sense of humor.

Voting:

1: Reenk election
2 Abstain
2a: Ichigo
3: Lord Winter early vote
4: Abstain
5: Abstain
5a: Askthepizzaguy
6: Seamus
7: Capper vote on Seamus.
8: glyphz, lurker.

Analysis:
Destroyed a possible mafioso, abstained most of the game, targeted Seamus one round and capper voted him the next, voted glyphz for lurking. Consistent play.



Activity:

Here 5/6 nights. A little scummy, but I've been here too.




Gaius Scribonius Curio:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Elect: CountArach
3: lynch suggestion
4: Early writeup analysis.
5: Tries to be here for day phase, finds out it's night.
6: Votes White Eyes
7: Seems to be legitimately busy, but responds to questioning.
8: Compellingly responded to my accusation. Very well done.
Still doesnt find me scummy.
9: Votes Sigurd for lack of activity, late capper vote.
10: responds to my "follow the dead" idea.
Doesnt follow the crowd, offers NEW suspect: votes QJC
11: abstains
12: nothing
13: nothing
14: demands role PM from Tevash, votes QJC again.
15: Votes Reenk, quick analysis which seemed valid.
16: nothing
17: sides with me and votes Shlin. I did have a lot of reasons, ya know.

I defend GSC on this page. So if I were guilty, GSC is the Godfather... but I tried to get people to suspect him earlier. Too insane a gamble, even for me. WIFOM? Lynch him, we still have 2 more rounds. Sorry for breaking my "defend no one" rule, but I did try to kill him and the reasoning Andres gave was totally torn to shreds.

18: Votes Taka.

His final defense:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...postcount=1373

Voting Pattern:

Elect Countarach day one.
2: no vote
3: White Eyes
4: Capper Sigurd
5: QJC (not with the crowd)
5a: Abstains... leaves game to chance.
6: QJC (consistent)
7: Reenk
8: Shlin

Activity:

5 nights out of the first 6


Analysis: He non-votes, abstains, and does a lot of capper votes. He also offers new and interesting suspects like White Eyes and QJC. I already defended him up and down, and we have 2 more phases I think, so I'm done trying. I believe his actions in this game have been legitimate, and no one defended him when I tore into him early on in the game.



======================

QJC:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

2: Elects shlin
3: lynch method suggestions, Abstains
4: Votes Gaius Scribonius Curio as a pure OMGUS vote. Risky for the Godfather to play.
Votes Seamus instead, because it came down to him and Ichigo and the ichigo bandwagon was dumb.
5: Points out I wasnt in previous game.
6: nothing
7: Gives an analysis, and a suspect list post 550
8: Votes YLC
9: Talks to me about whether Lord Winter is conclusively scum. Appreciates first SkyNet analysis.
Votes Tevash on my reasoning, plus Lord Winter looked like scum.
10: nothing
11: Asks for more time for me, but agrees I should be lynched if I fail. votes Tevash
12: unvotes Tevash after the reveal. Gives reasons why I am a better lynch than him.
13: encourages YLC to keep playing
14: nothing
15: good reasoning on Tevash... suspects shlin. Votes shlin, says lurkers can wait.
16. wishes Seamus happy b-day. Wants Seamus to do further analysis.
17. Seems to be ok with shlin's lynch, but questions the lurkers. Encourages me to continue my inquisition.
18: post 1365: encourages me and Tincow to pick up where Seamus left off.
Does a "bloody hands" analysis of Taka. Good work!
Does more analysis post 1393
Votes Curio.

Voting pattern:

Elects shlin
2a Seamus over Ichigo
3 Abstains
4 YLC over Sigurd
5 Tevash over Askthepizzaguy
5a Abstains
6: Didnt vote
7: shlin over seamus
8: abstains

Activity:

5 nights out of 6 that I looked at. I probably should do all of the nights but dangit... someone else can.



Analysis: QJC gave us options besides Seamus and Sigurd and Askthepizzaguy. He abstained the rest of the game, and voted shlin. His activity is solid, his post behavior is townie enough to me. He makes at least one move which would be Godfather-suicidal... and does several good late game analyses. He is not trying to control the game.

He hasn't had much heat on him though. But I feel that's justifiable. My analysis of him is a very close inspection... given Ares smells scummy but so far no one else does... I am actually anxious to find a second alternative. I couldn't find ANY case against QJC here.



Reenk Roink:

Defensive all game and defensive of Beefy as well. Seems to have stuck up for Tevash all game, and also he wanted to lynch Seamus as well as me. He was wrong on both of us being the Godfather.

But I've scrutinized Reenk enough. Time for a reprieve.

Voting Pattern:

1: Elects shlin
2: Abstain
2a: Abstain
3: Sasaki
4: Sigurd capper vote
5: ATPG
5a: ATPG (consistent)
6: Seamus
7: Capper on Seamus (consistent)

Activity:

4/6 nights that I looked at.

Analysis: Excellent defense against SkyNet's earlier case, and acting FAR too scummy to be concerned about his own life. I think he could be a mafia, but I don't think he's the Godfather. And he's got a better chance of being town. Reenk Roink.... once again... I cannot condone your death this round, as there are better suspects. And frankly, I am inclined to drop my case against you entirely, because if you're the Godfather after all this, well done.




Andres:

Early SkyNet revealed nothing. I am inclined to believe it's still that way. he knows how to avoid detection by now. I think he's a recruited mafioso... or a townie... but probably not the Godfather.

Congrats for avoiding detection if you're the Godfather, Andres. You earned it for moderating this crazy game.

Voting Pattern:

1. shlin28 (after campaigning for himself.
2a: Seamus over Ichigo
3: Sigurd over Lord Winter
4: Sigurd (consistent)
5: ATPG
5a: ATPG (consistent)
6: Tevash (good to check both sides of a huge argument for being scum...)
7: Shlin over Seamus
8: Gaius Scribonius Curio on several bad reasons, and one opinion reason. Fair enough.

I am not sure I trust Andres after round 7. Before I was sure he was a townie, now I think he's a recruit, but I'm almost certain he's no Godfather.

I suppose... a third place spot to be safe. I don't want to be that wrong, and if anyone can fool me good, Andres can.
Too many capper votes, too many reasonable votes.

Activity:

4/6 nights that I checked up on. Feel free to check the rest.


Analysis: Poor chance of being the Godfather. But we have 3 rounds, and I sincerely don't believe that it is him.





Conclusions:
777Ares777 is the best candidate.
Andres and Reenk Roink for a very, very distant second. And as for Beefy... well... Beefy always dies in every game. GeneralHankerchief choosing beefy187 for the Godfather... I don't see it. But whatever.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Analysis complete. Merging posts.

777Ares777 is my choice. He is the only one that a solid case can be made against.

And now that I've completely worn out my welcome, and everyone in the game has been fully analyzed... I've done all I can. And like I said, if I am wrong... you can at least say I gave it my best try, and I'll flush SkyNet forever.


I'm dead.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Hm, not too many votes this round. I may have to extend things.

-edit- This game is now my most popular ever, post-wise. I wonder if we'll beat Midgard.