As far as voting goes, I think the best play is to not make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia. We can't let the mafia trade one night kill for an easy lynch + two more night kills. If we wait until tomorrow they'll have to forgo another kill, and we get a lynch today that isn't based on it. That's why I'm sticking my vote on Sigurd for now.

************

If we do make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia (which I would be inclined to believe), then a couple people start to look scummy. First is YLC.

Connection with Lord Winter: possible anxious response upon my questioning of Lord Winter. The set of posts are linked to in this post of his. His accusation is that Lord Winter and I are inventing something to argue over. He appears to stand quite strongly behind this accusation, and leads of the next day of voting with a vote for me. In that light his abandonment of his case and the reversal of his previous position is suspicious. His vote tied lord winter with me. Now, the mafia know that after one of them is lynched it will be revealed to a certain extent the next day (the town will still have to consider that it is a mafia trick). So under what circumstances would they attack a partner in order to make themselves look more innocent? This part doesn't look too bad for YLC. Lord Winter was not a guaranteed lynch, YLC's vote contributed significantly to his lynching. But that is in hindsight. At the time, who know how many votes LW was going to get?

The other mark against YLC comes from the tiebreaker voting. He seemed to be in a hurry to end the tiebreaker. When he thought it was a revote he wanted me lynched, when he thought it was a runoff and his vote would end it he switched to Seamus. He voted Seamus again in the 2nd tiebreak of sorts. His reasoning for these votes is sketchy, something about a "little voice in his head" and my post about lord winter.

In summary, his reasoning behind his votes is scant and his willingness to string anyone up and completely reverse his position is scummy, and becomes doubly so if we assume Lord Winter was mafia.

After writing this out I'm tempted to ignore the patient approach and vote for ylc now, but I think I'll wait to see what he says before deciding that.