The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded]

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I like the analysis although I think you mark off too many people as townie for convenience sake. There are several who I think are capable--even if they showed scummy behavior in the other games you analyzed--of appearing townie up to this point. I'm also very familiar with the "I have it all figured out" epiphany (and have a tradition of pm'ing GH my later-revealed-to-be-ridiculous suspicions ), and it can often blind you to the truth.

I wouldn't put reenk in the guilty pile. He could be mafia for sure, but he always plays the game his own way as town or as mafia. Setting himself up as "defender of beefy" fits right in. I don't object to his lynch but it's something to keep in mind.

Tevash was someone I was going to take a look at come daytime.

Ignoramus always lurks and has been WoG'd countless times.

Oh, and shlin is someone I used to keep around to get lynched in the endgame when I was mafia

I'm pretty optimistic for this game, we have a huge number of lynch rounds if the mafia are indeed at one kill. Although something tells me none of the "suspects" will be killed anytime soon.

[Quintus.JC]

Looks like Lord Winter could of been one of the scums after all....

Vote: Tevash

[TinCow]

As far as I can tell, this write-up is original. Searches of the Org and TWC do not show anything that matches the above. I'm not going to attempt to do further writing style analysis, as the mafioso would surely be extraordinarily careful at this point, probably working with their Godfather as an 'editor.' I simply mention this as the decision to abandon the plagiarism is itself interesting, though I can't put any significance on it.

[Thermal]

look posts 291# - 303 for ATPG worringly similiar behavior as to this game by the way, if you want to look.

http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showt...217758&page=16

oh and orgahs join some games at the twc, it be fun!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Individual responses:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

look posts 291# - 303 for ATPG worringly similiar behavior as to this game by the way, if you want to look.

http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showt...217758&page=16

oh and orgahs join some games at the twc, it be fun!

Oh absolutely I have done this before as mafia to intentionally mislead town. And by the way, it didn't fool anyone in that game, in fact DisgruntledGoat was going to have me killed but they decided to flip a coin.

I could say it's not worth it to try, but it is. However, Ares is right, he knows I did this as mafia before. I've also done it as a townie. My argument is no longer aimed at proving my innocence, and I will submit to being investigated or lynched, or if you're feeling bold, murder bait.

I have a bunch of people to respond to, and I don't want to have separate posts for each.

Askthepizzaguy, I admire the effort you put in these games, I really do. And don't let some mutterings otherwise stop you. Enjoy these games in your own way.

However, any systematic method of analysis in these games is self defeating and doomed to fail. If they sometimes produce right results, it is due to coincidence purely.

If you truly believe this, then never analyze anyone again. There is a huge streak of hypocrisy and illogic in that statement.

That said, I don't claim infallibility, and I could be wrong about you and Tevash.

TinCow, your criticism and then tacit support of some of Askthepizzaguy conclusions confuses me (and probably yourself too), as well as your odd insistence that you have been proven innocent as if innocence implies any sort of ability to analyze better...

Silence: TinCow
Vote: Askthepizzaguy

I didn't see TinCow do anything of the sort. You're inventing reasons to criticize people. At least my criticisms are based on your actual behavior thusfar. Nice OMGUS vote, by the way. Nice try. We're both going down... shall we die together, Reenk?

LG willingly withdrawing his vote on me, due to town pressure plus the fact that everyone has seen that I'm town seems wierd. I wish someone investigate him. I find his behaviour increasingly strange and counter-productive.

I'm speculating, but I think he realizes the futility of continuing to go after you. And you're dead and thus proven innocent, as I predicted. And Lord Winter does seem like mafia now... otherwise mafia is taking a huge gamble. I am delighted by the idea of either scenario being the case.

Really...wow......I can't say your mafia now....unless you really want to get carpel tunnel syndrome...

I did this before as mafia, and it is by no means proof. It's not meant to be. It's meant to give reasons to look at Reenk and Tevash, and possibly prompt our lurkers into more activity.

No and no. I don't see how you've proven yourself in any way. High activity levels don't mean you're innocent, nor do massive analysis posts. If you were mafia, your WALL OF TEXT is a great way to bludgeon people until they do what you want, because most people won't read it and you know it. It's easy to hide logical fallacies and errors when you post so much text that no one can even remember what you wrote.

You are absolutely correct. I merely meant that the odds are pretty high this strategy will result in my death. In fact, by my consent and yours, I'm due to die three lynches from now or sooner, due to the possibility of me being wrong. And I am totally fine with that. As such, perhaps investigations are wasted on me, as I will be dead anyway. Use them to find the other suspects.

You also have not been playing strange. You post an absurd amount, both in frequency and in quantity, in every single game I've been in with you. You also act like you are the ultimate town protector in the games I've played with you. This is the exact same thing you're doing here. So, no, you have not been acting strangely.

Perhaps my 'strangeness' is in relation to games I've been mafia in. I've never posted this much or aroused so much suspicion intentionally. That said, I am done defending myself, I am scheduled to die and I am fine with it.

Thank you for considering my opinions with an open mind. Sorry Andres for putting you through that.

Despite any criticism above, ATPG has made a very good analysis of in-game behavior. There is a lot of common sense in what he finds innocent and what he finds scummy. I'm personally not convinced at all on Ignoramus, who I personally find to be generally lazy at times and I think that's what's going on here. However, his points on Reenk Roink and TevashSzat are well-analyzed, well-argued, and consistent. TevashSzat also fits my mental profile for the person who wrote the N1 kill write-up and has since switched to plagiarism to cover their writing style.

I believe Ignoramus may in fact be totally himself, too. I was hoping the pressure would make him crack. He hasn't, and in fact he spoke to me in private briefly about his upcoming game and when I mentioned I was putting him "on trial" so to speak, he seemed very calm and indifferent. That proves nothing, but I believe he could be on our side. As long as he is lynched or investigated eventually, I don't care.

So, my advice to the town is to follow ATPG's lead for a little while. Lynch Reenk Roink and TevashSzat, probably in that order (as TevashSzat would likely be the grunt, not the Godfather, and thus he would be the lesser target). If the game is not over after both of those two are lynched, then lynch ATPG.

Good advice.

harsh? ...but fair I think. The beautiful thing about TinCow's proposal there is that ATPG can keep reparing holes in his SkyNet whether alive or lynched

Indeed. This is my preliminary analysis. As the game goes on and what errors I have made have been revealed, I will rethink the situation and re-analyze the remaining players.

This war is not over by any means.

Pizza:

You realize that, vis-a-vis this game, your discussion of your tool also provides clear evidence that you have been poring over the specific posts of previous games....which we know figures prominently in the writeups of each night phase. This too is food for thought.

Thank you for continuing to be critical of me and paying attention. However, when the game is over, we will know who stands where. And I would not rip off someone else's murders. i've never gotten a chance to write my own murders. Only as a host have I done so.

Frankly, it's too tempting a proposition to be able to write my own murders. When I am given that chance by a host, I will take it. And I would delight in leaving self-incriminating but inscrutable clues for town in my own posts if I did so. But the "if I were mafia" discussion here is distracting and unnecessary. I'm scheduled for death, so let's just proceed and focus on the other suspects. I don't mind talking about me, but I think we have done that plenty.

I like the analysis although I think you mark off too many people as townie for convenience sake. There are several who I think are capable--even if they showed scummy behavior in the other games you analyzed--of appearing townie up to this point. I'm also very familiar with the "I have it all figured out" epiphany (and have a tradition of pm'ing GH my later-revealed-to-be-ridiculous suspicions ), and it can often blind you to the truth.

Very, very true. My instinct against TinCow, and consequently, Andres, in Chicago, plus a prejudiced analysis of their behavior (which was defensive, to be sure... just for innocent reasons) led to a very very bad epiphany.

I would like to say however, I do not believe I have this all figured out. This analysis, exhaustive though it may be, is incomplete for one, and preliminary for another.

I am not through harassing the mafia yet. As the game goes on, they will have much difficulty hiding. I particularly like how they have only one kill so early. More time for us to find them.

I wouldn't put reenk in the guilty pile. He could be mafia for sure, but he always plays the game his own way as town or as mafia. Setting himself up as "defender of beefy" fits right in. I don't object to his lynch but it's something to keep in mind.

I want to say that his style of play in this game seems different from his established townie style. From where I sit, he has far more absurd jokes, smiley face spam, self-incriminating behavior for no apparent reason, and just plain clownishness in other games. And he's been decisively ignoring me this entire game. I am a difficult man to ignore, and given how talkative he usually is, I wonder why we haven't chatted at all, nor has he commented on me, nor has he escaped from the clutches of the middle of the post count list, or as I call it, the non-lurking mafia's lair.

That said, he's too unpredictable for me to be sure I've nailed him, and I am not resting on my laurels.

Tevash was someone I was going to take a look at come daytime.

Ignoramus always lurks and has been WoG'd countless times.

Agreed, and agreed.

Oh, and shlin is someone I used to keep around to get lynched in the endgame when I was mafia

I'm pretty optimistic for this game, we have a huge number of lynch rounds if the mafia are indeed at one kill. Although something tells me none of the "suspects" will be killed anytime soon.

We shall see. I think I have some supporters, and if I am wrong, my death will be most justified for wasting your time. Thank you for giving me the benefit of the doubt.

Edit: I see I'm scheduled to be lynched sooner than expected. Fair enough. No benefit of doubt for the pizza man... ever!

LOL


I didn't get to Reenk's rebuttal nor Tevash's. I would like to hear what their alternative suspects are, perhaps I missed them. And frankly, since I don't KNOW you're guilty, it does me no good to bother debating with you. I made my case, you responded. Let's lynch and move on.

[Askthepizzaguy]

It's between myself and Tevash. Please do not stand on the sidelines.

Unless you were considering voting me, of course.

EDIT:
I wish to be clear about something.

Our work is by no means finished, and although I believe there is a strong chance at least one of my suspects are guilty, I also recognize that townies leave false signals.

We should not be complacent. I find it important to recognize that it is relatively easy to fool my detection net by keeping mistakes to a minimum. As such, many of those players with a relatively small post count and low-key strategy can easily slip through undetected. Investigation on such characters would seem to be in order.

Although I think I we a few good moves, the game is not over. And until it does, vigilance should be our watchword. Stay observant.

[Andres]

Hey ATPG. It's not necessary to post three times in a row; there's an "edit" button below each of your posts

[naut]

Unvote: Seamus

Vote: TevashSzat

Sorry TevashSzat, but you are more worthy a lynch than ATPG. Plus, there's a chance that seirei is just confussing us/me.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

fos:Askthepizzaguy, YLC

Tevash had tweaked me, but on reread there isn't much there. Given my thoughts on reenk already.

When Lord Winter was on the block, atpg made a huge case on Curio which was filled with poor logic and is now abandoned.

I think his game analysis is off. Don't agree with the conclusions.

It's interesting to consider him as a scumpartner with YLC. I can see them deciding that LW was a goner and lynching him--it's what I would do as mafia given that being dropped to one kill reveals (sort of) the guilt of the person last lynched. I don't like the way YLC went from what I would describe as having given up early yesterday to mafia-philosopher road when it appeared sigurd getting lynched was a real possibility. The timing of atpg's huge game analysis could be an effort to get suspicion away from YLC.

atpg says that YLC is "lynch later if necessary":

YLC 32 (ATPG townie judgment call) Lynch later if necessary.

Despite being sure he's townie:

YLC- He's being precisely the way he always is, and it always gets him killed. You underestimate him, seriously. I know he annoys you sometimes but he's more talented than you realize. And he might have helped kill a mafia, Lord Winter. Although he's really due to be mafia, he's lynchbait and therefore a poor choice for a grunt.

This doesn't match the decisiveness of the other analysis on players. YLC is listed in green while other players who he's going to recheck are in blue.

There are other people who could be mafia--and it's possible that only one of these guys is, but at this point no one else has done anything particularly suspicious and the link these two have with each and the circumstances of Lord Winters lynch makes them impossible to pass up.

Haven't decided which one to vote yet.

[Thermal]

note i said YLC was suspicious for those reasons to, look at the link i left in my last post, posts 291-303 are similar to this game and he was mafia there.