The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can clear QJC for you too, I believe. BRB.

day 1: QJC elected Shlin, after voting for me in the election.
day 2: Voted Gaius Scribonius Curio, who is still alive, and there's no heat on either one.
day 2a: Voted Seamus instead of Ichigo in the run-off. Clean hands again.
day 3: Abstained.
day 4: Voted YLC, Clean hands again.
day 5: Voted TevashSzat. He saw right through him. Proof, proof, proof.
(assuming TS is guilty)
day 5a: Left the fate of the game to chance. More proof.



He can't be the mafia if either I were, or if TevashSzat were. I doubt the mafia would support me, or stay on the sidelines.

[naut]

Vote: Tevash

Role PM please.

[Askthepizzaguy]

And Psychonaut cannot be mafia either. Lets see:

day 1: elect Reenk. I now believe Reenk is innocent, but I can't prove it.
day 2: voted Ignoramus, a lurker, wasn't responsible for his death at the hands of the mafia.
day 2a: voted Ichigo. Ichigo was a lurker, and I believe Rythmic took huge risks being one of the capper votes on him. But I don't have the data in front of me. Still, hands slightly bloody, but how many others' were?
day 3: abstained.
day 4: (as Psychonaut) voted Taka instead of Sigurd or YLC.
day 5: Voted TevashSzat. Have a slice of pizza for your bravery. :pizza:
day 5a: Voted TevashSzat again. Kudos!

If he's mafia, he's also my uncle.


More peeps to analyze:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

shlin28
Pevergreen (just joined after YLC's suicide)
777Ares777
Andres
TevashSzat
Quintus.JC
Psychonaut
White_eyes:D
Chaotix27
Reenk Roink
glyphz
Beefy187
taka
Seamus Fermanagh
LittleGrizzly
Gaius Scribonius Curio

[Andres]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Look at his voting pattern. Here, I'll grab it for you. BRB.

For reference, here's the summary thread.

day 1: Ares elected Shlin.
day 2: Ares voted Sasaki.
day 2a: Ares didn't vote for Ichigo or Sigurd.
day 3: Ares voted for Sigurd, but he wasn't lynched that day.
day 4: Ares didn't vote.
day 5: Voted for YLC because he didn't feel either of us were guilty. So he left the fate of the game to chance.
day 5a: Ares abstained during the tie vote, and left the fate of the game to chance.


Sorry, that means he's a townie.

I can clear QJC for you too, I believe. BRB.

day 1: QJC elected Shlin, after voting for me in the election.
day 2: Voted Gaius Scribonius Curio, who is still alive, and there's no heat on either one.
day 2a: Voted Seamus instead of Ichigo in the run-off. Clean hands again.
day 3: Abstained.
day 4: Voted YLC, Clean hands again.
day 5: Voted TevashSzat. He saw right through him. Proof, proof, proof.
(assuming TS is guilty)
day 5a: Left the fate of the game to chance. More proof.



He can't be the mafia if either I were, or if TevashSzat were. I doubt the mafia would support me, or stay on the sidelines.

And Psychonaut cannot be mafia either. Lets see:

day 1: elect Reenk. I now believe Reenk is innocent, but I can't prove it.
day 2: voted Ignoramus, a lurker, wasn't responsible for his death at the hands of the mafia.
day 2a: voted Ichigo. Ichigo was a lurker, and I believe Rythmic took huge risks being one of the capper votes on him. But I don't have the data in front of me. Still, hands slightly bloody, but how many others' were?
day 3: abstained.
day 4: (as Psychonaut) voted Taka instead of Sigurd or YLC.
day 5: Voted TevashSzat. Have a slice of pizza for your bravery. :pizza:
day 5a: Voted TevashSzat again. Kudos!

If he's mafia, he's also my uncle.

Sorry, but I really, really don't see how that makes them innocent.

[pevergreen]

I agree with Andres. Voting patterns don't mean much if we arent sure of anyone's alignment.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Sorry, but I really, really don't see how that makes them innocent.

That's ok. In order to know, you'd have to know for a fact what my allegiance is. From my perspective, it's a lot easier to nail down the suspects because I can clear myself and I also know if I was anywhere even remotely close to the truth, the mafia would all oppose me, or pretend to do be my friend and then change their minds at the end due to Tevash's reveal as detective.

Process of elimination. It's not 100%, but I'd give it a 90% or better.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Put aside the option that I were mafia/other for a moment, just for the sake of argument.

Now, assuming I am a townie: Murdering me would validate my suspects as being scummy, either falsely or correctly. The mafia would prefer I be lynched, because that means you cannot determine my alignment.

The vote between myself and TevashSzat was tied, twice. Any mafia remaining would oppose me.
From my perspective, knowing what I am, the solution is clear. Given my two wrong accusations, it was easy for the mafia to defend themselves AND vote for me without looking suspect.

[shlin28]

ATPG. I'm disappointed when you didn't say my name when mentioning those who wanted you to come back...



The tallies are not good resources to use when trying to find people IMO, just because they voted with your rather against you is... er... a bit... er.. not a good reason to think they are innocent.

I think you are overlooking your supporters, they would recognise early on that people who disagreed with you were being accused... hence, if they side with you, they can get by with relatively few accusations.

Just my two cents, ATPG!

PS: Welcome back! (after a dreadful 20 hour absence that is)

[shlin28]

Could you AND tevash be both innocent?

That could be a possbility that you havn't discussed yet... so the mafia could vote for both you and be fine... hypothetically of course

[Askthepizzaguy]

Sorry bout that Shlin, I just got a scummy vibe from you, and due to your position, I cannot clear you using the odds or your actions.

But thanks for the welcome back.

I know the proofs aren't 100% ironclad, but given the terrible corner the mafia painted themselves in, they could not afford to sit and wait it out. That's my conclusion, thats my leap of faith. That's why it's not absolute proof, but odds.



EDIT: If TevashSzat is innocent, he would have posted his role PM last night when he was here, responded to my accusations, or otherwise discussed with town something, I believe.

Mafia already know what he claims to be, and by the way, he wasn't murdered last night. Odds suggest I am correct. He wouldn't even discuss a plan of action as a BLUFF which could mislead the mafia into murdering his chosen target. He has no defense, and won't be able to face me down again, I suspect.

[Andres]

ATPG, lynching a townie does not mean you're guilty.

In mafia games, most lynchings are wrong and townies lynch townies most of the time. It's not scummy to have been voting townies over the whole course of a game. Making errors is not mafia-behaviour, it's human behaviour.

One can have perfectly valid reasons to vote townies over and over again. And some vote for wrong reasons and are townie nonetheless.

Players are human, humans are unpredictable, humans make errors all the time. Some of us are slightly better (or just luckier?) than others to detect mafiosi, but in the end, unless you are the detective and have a "guilty" on somebody, it's always guessing.

It is not, has never been and will never be exact science. Collecting data can be useful, but not an instrument for guaranteed victory in every single game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am intrigued by the option you suggested, Shlin28.

That is something which has a possibility of being true. But, then the mafia would allow me to live, and thus vote, even more in this game. And I do not clear anyone merely for supporting me, I also look at the rest of their posting habits, their in-thread contributions, and their suggested suspects.

@Andres, you're correct. I have no proof other than circumstantial evidence, and I could be wrong.

Why do you think I allowed TevashSzat to live and myself to die? Because at the end, I could be wrong.

[Andres]

@Andres, you're correct. I have no proof other than circumstantial evidence, and I could be wrong.

Why do you think I allowed TevashSzat to live and myself to die? Because at the end, I could be wrong.

ATPG, it's not you who "allows" this or that to happen. Unless you're a solo character (Serial Killer or some neutral role), mafia is a TEAM GAME. It was not Askthepizzaguy who lynched Askthepizzaguy but all the players who voted you (and the other players who did not put enough votes on another guy).

You're not playing this game all alone by yourself, but in a team. The teams are townie and mafia, not townie/mafia and Askthepizzaguy.

It is not I won X games, but the town/mafia team won this or that game.

It's not about the individual, but about the team.

[Askthepizzaguy]

More about my self-lynch decision:

Askthepizzaguy: 100% sure I am not the detective. Also, innocent.
TevashSzat: Claimed detective. My top suspect, and he does need to die. However, I am not 100% sure he's not the detective.

The choice was clear. But his actions dictate that he's no detective. His activity, votes, suspects, missing investigation, little white lies, defense arguments, and so on, lead me to believe he's guilty. The FOS on YLC just floors me.

I can talk about this all day, doesn't bother me. It's not hard to discuss the situation when you're dead, having nothing to hide, and have lots of compelling evidence that you cannot fabricate.

[Askthepizzaguy]

ATPG, it's not you who "allows" this or that to happen. Unless you're a solo character (Serial Killer or some neutral role), mafia is a TEAM GAME. It was not Askthepizzaguy who lynched Askthepizzaguy but all the players who voted you (and the other players who did not put enough votes on another guy).

You're not playing this game all alone by yourself, but in a team. The teams are townie and mafia, not townie/mafia and Askthepizzaguy.

It's not about the individual, but about the team.

I'm on the team, doing analyses from my perspective. That's all I can do, my friend.

And if I weren't concerned with what other people on my team did or thought, I wouldn't bother posting my thoughts. I'd just sit back and do reasonless votes and try to survive as long as I could.

I'm a member of the TEAM because I'm willing to do in-depth analysis and die for the cause. I am sorry if it rubbed anyone the wrong way, or in any way suggested only my opinion matters.

I am responding to everyone who offers a counter-opinion, compelling or not, because I care.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If I make an assumption, that the primary "rub the wrong way" is when I talked about my track record and claimed any sort of credit for anything. If so, please discuss that outside of the thread with me.

I would only do that if I made them my top suspect over everyone else at any point in the game, and it wasn't a random guess, it was with evidence and based on analysis. That's all I meant. Obviously it's a team effort, and I couldn't accomplish anything alone. That's why, after looking at things from my perspective, I share it with others and hear what they have to say, and when they make sense to me, like Gaius Scribonius Curio did earlier in the game, I rethink things and go along with it.

In my defense, I'd also like to say, I am not the first player to refer to previous games, for activity, for posting style, for strategy, nor am I the first player to claim a tiny bit of credit for correct guesses. As I said, I don't flaunt it because I have some serious errors to claim as well.

That said, I don't believe this thread is the proper venue for that discussion.

[shlin28]

Oooooh, got something.

You know how yesterday ATPG and I were arguing about how Tevash investigated YLC and then FoSed him?

I think its a simple error.

ATPG (and GH) takes the first day (the election day) as D1, whilst I was thinking D2 as D1 because I thought the election day didn't count. Could Tevash have made the same mistake, and so his FoS was in fact before he investigated him?

I hate time paradoxes...

[glyphz]

Tis very disappointing to still not be able to 'hear' anything from TevashSzat, and the mob grows weary
...and sleepy.
Vote: Abstain

[Askthepizzaguy]

Oooooh, got something.

You know how yesterday ATPG and I were arguing about how Tevash investigated YLC and then FoSed him?

I think its a simple error.

ATPG (and GH) takes the first day (the election day) as D1, whilst I was thinking D2 as D1 because I thought the election day didn't count. Could Tevash have made the same mistake, and so his FoS was in fact before he investigated him?

I hate time paradoxes...

No. look at the post count.

Past post 800 was when he had already claimed detective and cleared him via investigation, and well past that, he pointed the FOS at him, as I proved here:


https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=977
Post 977. There is no time paradox due to the post numbers.

[shlin28]

I was thinking the FoS before that, the FoS before he claimed detective.

Doesn't matter anyway, tis only a small matter.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I was thinking the FoS before that, the FoS before he claimed detective.

Doesn't matter anyway, tis only a small matter.

Oh, well that's a simple matter. Any FOS on YLC before that would make sense. But I was referring to the one that seemed to be a little strange, when you already cleared someone and still point the FOS at them for not supporting you.

Any prior FOS seems irrelevant, but objectively, that final one does seem relevant. Do you differ on that point?

[naut]

Lynch Tevash already people. He's lying through his teeth.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lynch Tevash already people. He's lying through his teeth.

You know, I'd still be willing to hear him out. Like I said, I will not be responsible for another Chicago. (meaning, my stupid mistakes of not looking at defenses or other suspects, only)

[Beefy187]

Well lets just see if ATPG is right about Tevash

Vote:Tevash

If his not it, then we can start considering to put ATPG on ignore

[Askthepizzaguy]

I gotta run guys. I have a lot of stuff to do this week and may not be here for a while. I predict you will win this game, and I thank you for encouraging me to talk and contribute.

See ya

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Don't forget to sign up to my upcoming mafia game, if you're interested. Valentine's Day massacre and the Resident Evil 2 game are the options, I'm leaning V-day.

[shlin28]

Okay, after reading through thread... I seriously now consider Igno as a detective... see this post:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...15#post2136815

Doesn't this just scream detective at you?

and this after he died:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...51#post2139551

Only a detective would do that.

I say we lynch Tevash now!

[White_eyes:D]

Someone please make a tally.... Shlin get your grunts minions to do it

[shlin28]

*sigh*

Its a bad omen when the CoP actually does some work...

Tevash 4 (Ares, Andres, Psychonaut, Beefy)
Seamus 2 (RR, WE)
RR 1 (Chaotix)
Pever 1 (Taka)
Abstain 1 (glyphz)

[TinCow]

The vote between myself and TevashSzat was tied, twice. Any mafia remaining would oppose me.
From my perspective, knowing what I am, the solution is clear. Given my two wrong accusations, it was easy for the mafia to defend themselves AND vote for me without looking suspect.

This is based on a flawed presumption: that TevashSzat is mafia. While he certainly appears to be a mafioso and is the best lynch this round (IMO), that's not definitive evidence. It's entirely possible that both of you are innocent, which would allow the mafia to vote for anyone they wanted during that round. Even if Tevash was guilty, the mafia could have been willing to sacrifice him, thinking he was a goner anyway. This seems to be a consistent problem with your game analysis. You set up a presumption for yourself, and then work from there to clear or convict everyone else based on their conduct in the context of that presumption. Unfortunately, if that presumption is not true then your entire case is undermined.

Even more unfortunately, the kind of presumptions you seem to make are extraordinarily difficult to ever prove before the game is over. You appear to try and find someone who is innocent and someone who is guilty, and work from there. However, there is no way to prove whether those people truly were innocent or guilty in most games, and certainly not in this game. Yes, it is likely that LW was mafia, but it's not certain. It is also likely that you are innocent, but that's not certain either. This very uncertainty then undermines the rest of your analysis and makes it easy for others to poke holes in it or disregard it. IMO, the key is to find methods of analysis that do not require presumptions of any kind, as this completely avoids the problem.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Vote: Tevash

No response thus far, even to the point of telling us we're just being silly. As Tincow rightly asserts, we have no absolute proof of your guilt, but a revealed detective who does not step forward to take the lead.....well, adios.

Sadly, I can't think the game will end with Tev's lynch (though we may get lucky). Were he the Godfather, there would be SOMETHING happening to draw fire away.


Side note: White Eyes, despite saying twice that you would/we should vote to lynch Tev if no info was forthcoming, your vote is still listed on me? Oversight? Or setting up a "whoops, I'm so sorry" defense?