The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded]

[taka]

Unvote : taka
Vote : shlin28

shlin28 indeed seems like a better option than taka for the moment.

a change to shlin after receiving a pm from the host? did you get a hint or something? care to share?

[Andres]

a change to shlin after receiving a pm from the host? did you get a hint or something? care to share?

I changed my vote to shlin28 based on the excellent post made by TinCow.

GH just assured me that there were no game rules broken by seireikhaan because he acted with permission from the host.

In other words, my vote switch is unrelated to the PM I received from the General.

[shlin28]

Wow...

(Note: The response has not been proofread... read on at your peril! )

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

It seems that I am being very very very suspicious right now for these reasons:

1. Unsually number of post counts - normally an indicator of me having a role.
2. Vigorous defence of Tevash and the eventual "DEATH TO TEVASH!" moment.
3. "Attempting" to "convince" the town that we are down to one Godfather.
4. Lack of serious contribution apart from the aforementioned Point 2.

My answers to all four of them:

1. I like being the CoP, which gives me a sense of higher purpose than a bogstandard townie. In games where I just have a townie PM and nothing else I tend to get bored and relapse into my non-serious mode. In here, I try to be more active. In any case, most of the post is made because of Point 2 (see below)

2. I defended Tevash mainly because A: I dislike the town being led by one person and the majority follows the said townie (unless they have a game role that allows them to do so) and B: I thought ATPG's deduction was flawed.

In practically all of the games featuring both me and ATPG I have stood against his system of reasoning (See "The Lunar Whale", "Teddy Snatcher", "Whispers in the Night" etc), mainly because I was accused by it, a lot. And in all of these cases I was innocent despite his system branding me guilty, so this gives me cause to believe that ATPG' system is not always right. Furthermore, in "Whispers of the Night" I was accused of being mafia, when I was the detective - this led to doubts regarding whether SkyNet can detect whether one is a pro-town role or mafia. So when Tevash was accused of showing signs of scumminess, I took a leap of logic and thought that Tevash could be a detective, hence my defence of Tevash. Anyway, why couldn't I defend Tevash? Note that Sasaki and RR did too... is there anything preventing one townie to help defending another townie because the first townie believes that the second townie is not exhibiting the classic signs of mafianess?

My complete "aboutturn" on the Tevash issue can explained quite easily - He was active during the discussion on his lynch, yet did not respond in anyway. In any case, as NOBODY ELSE has mentioned BTW, at that point it occured to me that Ignoramus* had quite a big chance of being the detective (see the post where I quoted his posts). More troubling however, is that people seem to think just because I supported Tevash for one and a half phases I must support him all the way to the end?

* Now I am thinking more along the line that Ignoramus is the unicycle killer - if he was the detective he would have counter revealed. On the night he decided to kill, the mafia also conveniently concluded that Igno MUST be the detective due to his lurkiness.

3. I did not try to "convince" others of it, I was just stating my personal opinions, which are not infallible - never did I say "The write-up says this, it must be truez!", whenever I stated something from the write-uo (exluding posts from yesterday), I always included a tiny snippet explaining my doubts. Yesterday's post was an exception, mainly because I had reverted to my non-serious mode after a high activity phase, and became vague and annoying.

Also, Tincow I believe had misinterepreted the meaning of Post 1116 (I think) where I "accused" Sasaki of being mafia. This is not the case. Certainly, the write-up SUGGESTED that Sasaki was a member of the mafia group, but I was never sure. Post 1116 was a reply to this post https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...postcount=1114. Here Sasaki produced a detective role PM - in my non-serious mood at the time, I said Sasaki must be guilty, due to his preparations and "backup" role PMs. However, because there was a post between Sasaki's post and mine, the meanings of my post became... er... confused.

4. If there is something really concerning me/really interesting, I tend make short posts and be in my jokey mode. But if there is really something important, I will make contributions. Can't really change that...

So if you are going to lynch me, lynch me on the basis of Point 4. But I assure you, if I am lynched, not only will you lose a most talented lynch-management-guy, the game will also continue, because I am not mafia, not a henchman, and certainly not a Godfather...just a normal townie.

Thank you for your time for reading my insane rant.

[TinCow]

1. I like being the CoP, which gives me a sense of higher purpose than a bogstandard townie. In games where I just have a townie PM and nothing else I tend to get bored and relapse into my non-serious mode. In here, I try to be more active. In any case, most of the post is made because of Point 2 (see below)

I made no comment on your level of activity, only your posting style.

2. Anyway, why couldn't I defend Tevash? Note that Sasaki and RR did too... is there anything preventing one townie to help defending another townie because the first townie believes that the second townie is not exhibiting the classic signs of mafianess?

Your defense of Tevash is not unusual. Indeed, I specifically stated that you provided some good analysis for him. What I find suspicious is that you completely changed your normal posting style to defend him. It is this change in your behavior that is strange, not your defense of Tevash.

My complete "aboutturn" on the Tevash issue can explained quite easily - He was active during the discussion on his lynch, yet did not respond in anyway. In any case, as NOBODY ELSE has mentioned BTW, at that point it occured to me that Ignoramus* had quite a big chance of being the detective (see the post where I quoted his posts). More troubling however, is that people seem to think just because I supported Tevash for one and a half phases I must support him all the way to the end?

The problem is that your about face is very inconsistent with your previous statements. You were one of Tevash's leading defenders, even defending him before he revealed as a detective. You continued to defend him in pretty much all of your posts, well into the phase when he eventually got lynched. You were even the person who emphasized that he might not have replied because of his time zone. While your reason for your change of mind is reasonable, it is simply inconsistent with your actions over the previous few days. It stinks of a mafioso attempting to make himself look innocent when he decides his partner is about to get lynched.

3. I did not try to "convince" others of it, I was just stating my personal opinions, which are not infallible - never did I say "The write-up says this, it must be truez!", whenever I stated something from the write-uo (exluding posts from yesterday), I always included a tiny snippet explaining my doubts. Yesterday's post was an exception, mainly because I had reverted to my non-serious mode after a high activity phase, and became vague and annoying.

I did not say you were trying to convince others that only the Godfather was left. What I said was that you seemed convinced that only the Godfather was left. The way you worded your posts indicates that you personally actually did believe that both grunts had been eliminated. As far as I can tell, there was no way to know that, especially not with the degree of certainty that seemed to be emanating from you.

Also, Tincow I believe had misinterepreted the meaning of Post 1116 (I think) where I "accused" Sasaki of being mafia. This is not the case. Certainly, the write-up SUGGESTED that Sasaki was a member of the mafia group, but I was never sure. Post 1116 was a reply to this post https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...postcount=1114. Here Sasaki produced a detective role PM - in my non-serious mood at the time, I said Sasaki must be guilty, due to his preparations and "backup" role PMs. However, because there was a post between Sasaki's post and mine, the meanings of my post became... er... confused.

There was no misinterpretation, because I've never commented on your statements about Sasaki. My references to that post are about your claim that only the Godfather was still alive. It's obvious that your statement about Sasaki was a joke, so I've ignored that.

But I assure you, if I am lynched, not only will you lose a most talented lynch-management-guy, the game will also continue, because I am not mafia, not a henchman, and certainly not a Godfather...just a normal townie.

Thanks for reminding us of that again.

Would you also like to comment on my earlier points about how you continue to try and use mafia-written kill write-ups as evidence?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Tally as of post #1203

Seamus = 4 (Grizz, Reenk, Taka, WE)
Reenk = 2 (C27, GSC)
Shlin = 2 (Andres, QJC)
Taka = 2 (Seamus, pever')

NV = 3 (Beefy, Ares, Glyphz)


I am clearly the best lynch target this round because I am participating but haven't yet produced an iron-clad analysis identifying the godfather. The ONLY possible explanation is that I am the godfather. Poppycock. In fact, I suspect that one or more of those voting for me are well aware that that's arrant nonsense -- but then again that "one or more" have their own reasons to vote for me, don't they?


Reenk says kill him, I have a hunch, so I am to be killed?!?! He doesn't even have Aggonyduck's reputation for hunches behind him to support that kind of malf. To lynch me for that reason is, essentially, to lynch me because "He's known and not murdered yet, so he must be mafia." If that's your level of analysis, then you can skip the rest of this post because you've already decided to kill me regardless of any content or deeper reasoning.


'khaan, murdered early, thinks I altered the PM so that's proof of my guilt? Hello, I already noted that when I cut and pasted. As for what was unique, you were, prior to this round, the only person to have lodged a vote to lynch Shlin. If I as GF or grunt #2, knew Shlin to be mafioso grunt, than I would have had to presume you had investigated Shlin and therefore had to wipe you out immediately, hoping that you would not make an immediate reveal in favor of trying to get two mafiosi (voting shlin being the way to get others to vote for him, build up pressure, and try to find the GF or the other grunt by figuring who was orchestrating some defense/distraction). In that scenario, I would hope to silence you before you could reveal your results and thus also prevent a likely detective assessment of me in the next few rounds. If you were the detective, that would be about what happened -- only I didn't do it. If you are a murdered detective, you're putting a lot of effort into killing an innocent generic townie. Assess carefully who's been interacting with you to encourage that misfocus.


taka voting for me at the time he did was simple self-preservation. Nothing surprising there, and would be the response of an innocent townie OR lurking mafioso. At least he's posting a bit more than the vote....


White_Eyes has been voting almost in lock step with Reenk since the outset of the game. Of the 5 lynch votes where they both voted, 4 have been exactly the same. Only in the round where Winter was lynched did they vote separately. Moreover, you have kept your vote on me, TWICE, after stating that you thought it likely I was pro-town and even after I asked you to shift it. Reenk's 3-4 sentences asserting his hunch are THAT compelling. Exactly what did you get from Reenk when he bought you?


Well, it appears pretty clear that this town will not pressure taka any more than it has, at least for this round. He will be allowed to continue his lurk because you judge him to not be much threat. Since the worry -- aside from me -- seems to center on Shlin, I'll join with and

Unvote: taka; Vote: Shlin

and then see what develops.

Tally as of post #1205 inc.

Seamus = 4 (Grizz, Reenk, Taka, WE)

Shlin = 3 (Andres, QJC, Seamus)
Reenk = 2 (C27, GSC)
Taka = 1 (pever')

NV = 3 (Beefy, Ares, Glyphz)

[GeneralHankerchief]

Hm, interesting lynch possibilities as of the current tally. This may be the second time I'll have to lynch somebody on their birthday. And the first time, it turns out I miscounted the tally.

In other words, happy birthday, Seamus!

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Yes, happy birthday Seamus...PREPARE TO DIE!

[GeneralHankerchief]

Voting closed.

[TinCow]

[shlin28]

Would you also like to comment on my earlier points about how you continue to try and use mafia-written kill write-ups as evidence?

I don't think I meant it at the time... I think I was just trying to say what the write-up could be hinting at... They shouldn't be discounted completely right?

I did not say you were trying to convince others that only the Godfather was left. What I said was that you seemed convinced that only the Godfather was left. The way you worded your posts indicates that you personally actually did believe that both grunts had been eliminated. As far as I can tell, there was no way to know that, especially not with the degree of certainty that seemed to be emanating from you.

I was "certain"? I don't think that was my intention. (Note to self: Make sure I get EXACTLY what I think into my posts...)

Apart from that, I got nothing. If you guys really want to lynch me, I don't mind. I certainly feel I havn't pulled my weight in this game.

Edit: Doesn't matter... just lynch me next round...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Mafiosi:

Kudos, well-played.


Town:

As a lynched, and therefore not entirely trustworthy, player, I will attempt to restrict my posts in this thread to a recitation of confirmable facts for evaluation, providing a minimum of analysis so as not to sway anyone (at least, I'll try for neutrality as much as possible). And rest assured, the game is nowhere near over yet.


GH:

Thanks for the birthday wishes. I am continuing my unbroken streak as a dead townie. I have, quite literally, never survived in a winning townie effort the entirety of my 3 years of mafia play. I am really starting to feel about that as Ultrawar did about his first round murders. AAAAARGH!

[GeneralHankerchief]

Well, to be fair, there haven't been that many winning townie efforts recently.

[Csargo]

Happy Birthday Seamus

[Sasaki Kojiro]

The case on shlin is well thought out but I'm not feeling it in my gut...hard to say. The town is kind of hacking away randomly at this point.

[seireikhaan]

Seamus- I thought it was clear that I was not being serious when I posted that you altered the smilies out.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Day 7

Today was Seamus Fermanagh's birthday. Upon informing the citizens of the Gameroom of this fact early on in the voting, everybody stopped what they were doing and threw an impromptu party for one of the town's finest residents. It was a nice little break from the frightening monotony of "witness death, face execution, repeat." Everyone had a merry time, forgetting about their fears, if only for a little while.

As the voting phase dragged on (without the Chief of Police present), so did the party. Presents were exchanged, most of them promises that would be honored should they "ever get through this". Somehow, one of the villagers even managed to get their hands on a cake that even had "Happy Birthday Seamus" written in fancy script with icing.

Seamus, honored, cut up the cake and divvied it up between the remaining villagers, saving the biggest slice for himself. What the hey, the chances were good that he was going to die the next couple of days, why not live a little? Later, someone brought back a large case of beer, probably nicked from the Elephant and Cannon Pub.

Merrily, the villagers indulged themselves, and eventually they all started to slur their voices and indulge some deep secrets. It was not uncommon to hear phrases like "You're my besht friend" and "For He's a Jolly Good Fellow" choruses aimed at Seamus that day. The merrymaking continued for a few more hours, and many of the villagers had the best time they had in months, yet alone since the Mafia had began killing everybody.

Eventually, Chief of Police shlin28, looking tanner and satisfied, returned, perplexed at the scene.

"Wait, you people were having a party and no one invited me??!?!" Everybody was silent for a few seconds, and then they all burst out laughing, including shlin. After the laughter died down, the Chief of Police asked everybody if they had come to a decision.

"GUILTY!" a plurality of villagers shouted in unison, pointing their fingers at the birthday boy.

"Oh, *#%!", Seamus muttered, and trudged up to the execution platform. The party was over. Along the way, he continued muttering to himself, and then eventually lashed out at the villagers, calling them all fools, protesting his innocence. Eventually shlin had to intervene as he took hold of Seamus and dragged him forcefully the rest of the way.

"Well, at least there'll be fireworks for the party," shlin said to a thoroughly-depressed Seamus as he shoved him into the cannon. "Too bad it'll be you. Happy Birthday, Seamus," he said, grinning, as he stepped back and lit the match.

"All right, everybody," shlin said, addressing the crowd. "Three... two... one..."

BOOM!

Everybody cheered as Seamus Fermanagh, the day's final festivity, was spectacularly launched into the night, shooting far and wide, and eventually out of everybody's sight. The next town over, in his office, Vincenzo stood up with a start as a charred figure crashed through his window. Recognizing the body as Seamus's, he raised one eyebrow.

Day 7 tally:

Seamus Fermanagh: 4 (Reenk Roink, LittleGrizzly, taka, White_eyes:D)
shlin28: 3 (Andres, Quintus.JC, Seamus Fermanagh)
Reenk Roink: 2 (Chaotix27, Gaius Scribonius Curio)
taka: 1 (pevergreen)

Abstained: 3 (shlin28, glyphz, Beefy187)
Didn't vote: 1 (777Ares777)

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Still alive: (13)
shlin28
pevergreen
777Ares777
Andres
Quintus.JC
White_eyes:D
Chaotix27
Reenk Roink
glyphz
Beefy187
taka
LittleGrizzly
Gaius Scribonius Curio

Killed:
Tratorix
CountArach
seireikhaan
boudica
TinCow
Jolt
Ignoramus
Sasaki Kojiro
Psychonaut

Executed:
Ichigo
Lord Winter
Sigurd
Askthepizzaguy
TevashSzat
Seamus Fermanagh

[Seamus Fermanagh]

At least it was with a bang, and not a whimper.

[Quintus.JC]

Executed on his birthday.

Happy birthday BTW Seamus

[taka]

happy birthday Seamus! sorry for contributing to your death :P

However I must note that I dont think Shlin is the GF - look at the write up:

Shlin is in town lynching Seamus, whilst Vincenzo is in his office.

wasnt expecting a clue like that from the writeup at all :S

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Vincenzo isn't the godfather--although why he would recognize Seamus is unclear.

[Reenk Roink]

Skimmed the thread, read Seamus's long post, and have some replies.

Seamus:

I dislike the term hunch. I prefer to call it direct esoteric knowledge that surpasses systems of logic and reasoning, language, and sense perception. Rest assured that you were not voted for by me because of reputation: I don't understand why you would knock reputation when you suggest that it is a reason why you are receiving votes and then go on and claim my hunch doesn't have reputation backing it. Sigurd claimed this reason before too, and again it was not true. I agree that it probably play a part in some peoples mind (in some cases mine as well), but you all know how I have notably been a victim of reputation. Also, I do believe that the differences between players is minimal. Also, on the issue of being known, recently I haven't played with "older" people like you and Sigurd much at all when compared with "newer" players like taka.

On khaan, I don't know the particulars of his case against you and will not comment on its value (though my not reading it may correctly suggest that I am not too fond of it - if it's not plainly apparent I am eschewing other people's analytical attempts at solving this case this game - feeling out another playstyle - if it appears I am using analytical methods myself, rest assured they are either ploys to articulate to the town in a manner more palatable to them or refutations of other analysis's for the same reason).

On White_eyes:D I have no idea why he and I have voted together so much together, but he and I are in no way associated this game.

[Andres]

Happy Birthday Seamus

[Beefy187]

Happy Birthday Seamus!!

If I knew it was your birthday I would've tied the vote

I hope you have a excellent day anyway

[Chaotix]

What a wasted lynch...

The only potentially useful thing to come out of this is this line:

The next town over, in his office, Vincenzo stood up with a start as a charred figure crashed through his window. Recognizing the body as Seamus's, he raised one eyebrow.

Although I'm unsure how to interpret it. Could Seamus have been mafia all along?

[Sasaki Kojiro]

It doesn't seem like GH to give away that the game was over like that. So I'd assume it's not.

[Beefy187]

Ignore me.. That theory was completely useless and not much thoughts were put into it..

[White_eyes:D]

On White_eyes:D I have no idea why he and I have voted together so much together, but he and I are in no way associated this game.

Seamus:OUCH.....lynched on your birthday....Happy birthday?

Reenk: You remind me of Joker off Dark Knight......you pretend to live in a moment and then BAM!! you play with them....until you kill them....Hell, I think on Dark Vacuum you are playing town there if you don't mind....I helped vote Seamus because why would you plead with town when you had no fact's? no evidence to even back you up? no real logic?.....that's where the Reenk factor comes in....and as far as I am concerned....not a good one to carry to far....

[White_eyes:D]

White_Eyes has been voting almost in lock step with Reenk since the outset of the game. Of the 5 lynch votes where they both voted, 4 have been exactly the same. Only in the round where Winter was lynched did they vote separately. Moreover, you have kept your vote on me, TWICE, after stating that you thought it likely I was pro-town and even after I asked you to shift it. Reenk's 3-4 sentences asserting his hunch are THAT compelling. Exactly what did you get from Reenk when he bought you?

nothing..... I was sleeping over-wise I would have taken the vote off you....but because of this

Vincenzo stood up with a start as a charred figure crashed through his window. Recognizing the body as Seamus's, he raised one eyebrow.

I feel I keep it on you for a good reason.....though....does it mean Mafia or a secret role? in any case....your outta here.....

[Askthepizzaguy]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I agree that Tevash was likely mafia. For a while, I thought his lack of response was simply due to inactivity or RL issues. However, I just checked and he was online yesterday. If Tevash was the real detective, he almost certainly would have posted in here berating us for being idiots. His silence after that detective reveal and lynching seems to be a pretty strong suggestion of his guilt.

shlin has some interesting behavior when Tevash suddenly became vulnerable. He had a total of three posts between ATPG's 'Skynet' mega-post and when the heat got seriously turned up on Tevash. All of them were either jovial/joking in nature or completely lacking in serious analysis, which is consistent with shlin's previous play style. However, once Tevash's lynch starts looking more likely, he suddenly drops the silliness and gets serious with actual arguments, which is inconsistent with his general lackadaisical participation in the game. First, he proposes sparing Tevash for a round. Shortly after this, Tevash claims he is the detective. shlin's response to this is to spare Tevash and look to see if he gets killed by mafia as proof of his innocence. Note that instead of asking for more evidence from Tevash, he focuses the 'proof' of Tevash's claim exclusively on the mafia killing or not killing him in the future. This is then followed up with serious posts with decent reasoning. He then makes no jokes at all while waiting to find out Tevash's fate. After ATPG's lynch, shlin then put a decent amount of effort into explaining why ATPG was a better lynch than Tevash, even though the issue was already decided.

After the following night phase, despite Tevash not getting killed by the mafia (which shlin had previously theorized would be proof of his guilt), shlin discourages a lynching of Tevash. He then provides excuses about why Tevash hasn't replied yet, followed by posts which defend Tevash.

So, up until this point, shlin has gone out of his way to defend Tevash. He stopped posting in a silly/joking manner and put forth effort on actual debate and analysis. He spends a very long period of time specifically giving Tevash every opportunity he can think of, and even when he acknowledges that Tevash might have some scumminess about him, he encourages that he not be lynched and that the town wait for the mafia's actions to prove whether Tevash is guilty or not. And then, when the votes start piling up on Tevash...

shlin makes a complete 180 degree turn and goes for Tevash's throat. Voting is then closed with Tevash in the lead, and shlin chooses that moment, before the lynch write-up is even complete, to claim that both the grunts are dead and that only the Godfather is left.

Where does he go after this? Why, back to his non-analystical and joking posting style, of course. He then reminds us again that both grunts are dead and claims this is due to a write-up which occurred AFTER he stated this the first time.

D'oh!

Curses and Drat. I still believe TevashSzat was a mafia, given his sudden drop off of the face of the thread while he was still active in the forum.

Where we go from here: I'd look at shlin's scummy defense of TevashSzat several pages back, where I was a bit too energetic and I spoilered most of my case because I thought the case was good but the attitude wasn't, and I didn't want to do a re-write, because that's scummy.


You don't defend people you don't know are innocent. That's not good townie play. You can suggest that they are innocent, but don't stick your neck out for them. That's my opinion on 99% of the cases. Don't argue their defense for them.



Time for a new Chief of Police. This one is more concerned with staying alive and defending suspicious characters than finding mafia.


EDIT:

Possible candidate for Chief of Police:

Someone who has been suicidal with his life. YLC, who is no longer with us. Therefore: Pevergreen.

However, some of you find my interactions with YLC scummy, which is silly. YLC would have to have been the Godfather. And if you think after all that, YLC is the Godfather, I simply don't know what Occam's Razor means to you.

So, other candidates: Taka
Frankly, anyone who lurks this much and has been threatened to be lynched for it, posted no defense and seemingly allows it to happen, ain't no Godfather. But! If you're too scared, let's offer another one:

(Remember, the nominee must be someone who logically speaking cannot be the Godfather)

I was thinking White_Eyes, but it's a little risky. What if he were the Godfather lynching his own subordinate, Lord Winter?

The others I cannot fully, comprehensively clear. But I would be inclined to trust Andres... he hasn't been controlling the game and he never triggered my scum alarms.

I'd suggest Beefy187... but... to be honest, he's due. He's due to be a mafia and show us all how awesome he really, really is. As such, I don't want to risk it.

Quintus.JC and Chaotix27... I feel they are innocent. But you know, the Godfather would easily slip past my detection if they supported me over TevashSzat. Last ditch effort to help themselves win. That said, I don't feel they are guilty.

I'm sorry, but YLC is the best choice. Pevergreen is the replacement, he suicided as the Godfather? Nope. Never gonna happen. He voted himself and got himself nearly lynched and kept his vote on himself? Nope. Never gonna happen.





Nominate: YLC/pevergreen as new Chief of Police. Sorry, Shlin... you had a good run, no hard feelings, I believe you needed to work harder at catching suspects and less harder on defending people you couldn't know were innocent.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Merged the two posts.

Double posting is a nasty habit, Pizzaman.