SkyNet analysis part 3
Taka
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Hold it right there.
I think we agree that Tevash and Lord Winter seem like scum. They both FoS'ed Taka. Taka has been under pressure all game for lurking, and hasn't bothered to defend himself. He hasn't been murdered because he's lynchbait. He doesn't care if he dies. He makes a "too risky" move by being one of the deciding votes on Sigurd.
Chance of being scum is too low, given the other suspects and how people haven't defended him at all. I even suggested it would be OK to lynch all the lurkers before the game is over. I never fully cleared him, I said lynch him before the game is over. No one reacted. No one cares if he dies.
He's innocent, if the reasoning holds. Feel free to correct me or tell me to shush up.
glyphz:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Activity: Active 3 nights out of 6 that I analyzed.
Voting pattern:
Seamus 2a
didnt vote 3
Capper on Sigurd day 4
Abstains 5
Tevash 5a (to tie)
Abstains 6
Abstains 7
Capper on Shlin day 8
Analysis:
Lurks most of the game, but makes risky CAPPER votes frequently. Thats risky for the Godfather because anyone who makes a decisive vote is suspicious when the game continues. Especially if they are lurking. And that's fair, but not always correct reasoning to suspect someone.
He's been under fire all game, and does not care. NO ONE IS DEFENDING HIM.
He's been inactive totally 3 nights out of 6 that I looked at. Not proof, but it's interesting.
And finally, his voting pattern is just... risky. Abstaining means you let town decide who dies. Capper votes make you a suspect.
So what if he lurked to victory in other games? He knows no one will let him do that again. Fellows, the cojones on glyphz if he were the Godfather, based on this evidence, tells me something.
But go ahead and lynch him with my blessing for lurking.
Thats the analysis of our top 2 lurkers. Make of it what you will.
White_Eyes:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Voting:
1: Reenk election
2 Abstain
2a: Ichigo
3: Lord Winter early vote
4: Abstain
5: Abstain
5a: Askthepizzaguy
6: Seamus
7: Capper vote on Seamus.
8: glyphz, lurker.
Analysis:
Destroyed a possible mafioso, abstained most of the game, targeted Seamus one round and capper voted him the next, voted glyphz for lurking. Consistent play.
Activity:
Here 5/6 nights. A little scummy, but I've been here too.
Gaius Scribonius Curio:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Voting Pattern:
Elect Countarach day one.
2: no vote
3: White Eyes
4: Capper Sigurd
5: QJC (not with the crowd)
5a: Abstains... leaves game to chance.
6: QJC (consistent)
7: Reenk
8: Shlin
Activity:
5 nights out of the first 6
Analysis: He non-votes, abstains, and does a lot of capper votes. He also offers new and interesting suspects like White Eyes and QJC. I already defended him up and down, and we have 2 more phases I think, so I'm done trying. I believe his actions in this game have been legitimate, and no one defended him when I tore into him early on in the game.
======================
QJC:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Voting pattern:
Elects shlin
2a Seamus over Ichigo
3 Abstains
4 YLC over Sigurd
5 Tevash over Askthepizzaguy
5a Abstains
6: Didnt vote
7: shlin over seamus
8: abstains
Activity:
5 nights out of 6 that I looked at. I probably should do all of the nights but dangit... someone else can.
Analysis: QJC gave us options besides Seamus and Sigurd and Askthepizzaguy. He abstained the rest of the game, and voted shlin. His activity is solid, his post behavior is townie enough to me. He makes at least one move which would be Godfather-suicidal... and does several good late game analyses. He is not trying to control the game.
He hasn't had much heat on him though. But I feel that's justifiable. My analysis of him is a very close inspection... given Ares smells scummy but so far no one else does... I am actually anxious to find a second alternative. I couldn't find ANY case against QJC here.
Reenk Roink:
Defensive all game and defensive of Beefy as well. Seems to have stuck up for Tevash all game, and also he wanted to lynch Seamus as well as me. He was wrong on both of us being the Godfather.
But I've scrutinized Reenk enough. Time for a reprieve.
Voting Pattern:
1: Elects shlin
2: Abstain
2a: Abstain
3: Sasaki
4: Sigurd capper vote
5: ATPG
5a: ATPG (consistent)
6: Seamus
7: Capper on Seamus (consistent)
Activity:
4/6 nights that I looked at.
Analysis: Excellent defense against SkyNet's earlier case, and acting FAR too scummy to be concerned about his own life. I think he could be a mafia, but I don't think he's the Godfather. And he's got a better chance of being town. Reenk Roink.... once again... I cannot condone your death this round, as there are better suspects. And frankly, I am inclined to drop my case against you entirely, because if you're the Godfather after all this, well done.
Andres:
Early SkyNet revealed nothing. I am inclined to believe it's still that way. he knows how to avoid detection by now. I think he's a recruited mafioso... or a townie... but probably not the Godfather.
Congrats for avoiding detection if you're the Godfather, Andres. You earned it for moderating this crazy game.
Voting Pattern:
1. shlin28 (after campaigning for himself.
2a: Seamus over Ichigo
3: Sigurd over Lord Winter
4: Sigurd (consistent)
5: ATPG
5a: ATPG (consistent)
6: Tevash (good to check both sides of a huge argument for being scum...)
7: Shlin over Seamus
8: Gaius Scribonius Curio on several bad reasons, and one opinion reason. Fair enough.
I am not sure I trust Andres after round 7. Before I was sure he was a townie, now I think he's a recruit, but I'm almost certain he's no Godfather.
I suppose... a third place spot to be safe. I don't want to be that wrong, and if anyone can fool me good, Andres can.
Too many capper votes, too many reasonable votes.
Activity:
4/6 nights that I checked up on. Feel free to check the rest.
Analysis: Poor chance of being the Godfather. But we have 3 rounds, and I sincerely don't believe that it is him.
Conclusions:
777Ares777 is the best candidate.
Andres and Reenk Roink for a very, very distant second. And as for Beefy... well... Beefy always dies in every game. GeneralHankerchief choosing beefy187 for the Godfather... I don't see it. But whatever.
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Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
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