Vote: Beefy
For unexplained reasons I'm inclined to see the triple team of Reenk, Beefy and Tevash cruising through the game... Yes I am going for Beefy.
Last edited by Quintus.JC; 02-26-2009 at 21:01.
6 left.
1 lynch now so 5 left.
1 kill if the said lynched isn't the Godfather so 4 left.
Now unless you actually believe there are two Mafia left (I cannot believe this revision of theories based on songs by the way), having 4 left guarantees another lynch.
As khaan would say: "It's MATH!"![]()
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Only with a solo godfather: 6 - 1L#1 = 5, 5- 1m = 4, 4 - 1L#2 = 3, 3 - 1m = 2, Godfather wins.
With an associate: 6 - 1L#1 = 5, 5 - 1m = 4, but with 2 mafiosi that's a mafia win right there.
So Reenk, do you always play endgames by not reading other's posts? I had already discussed this in detail before the night write up. Since I am certain you are not stupid, and though I know your STYLE to be cavalier your play is anything BUT....
Vote: Reenk Roink
....alas, I cannot do it. The Reenkster decided I was evil on a hunch and got me lynched. I do admire your play sir, yes indeedly-doodly I do.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
I did glance at your post (and see mine above). I don't agree at all that there are two Mafia left.
Even if we grant there are two Mafia remaining now, if the town just listens to me and knocks of Andres, and then listens to me again and knocks off the other guy I pick, and both of these guys happen to be Mafia, we win!
I honestly can't think of a better plan.![]()
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First I never said I didn't care about winning...
Ok sure, if you really want to, then lynch me as you seem to think I am the best choice for your victory. I will help you achieve what you think will lead to your victory (I have a good writeup for my lynch already done, and I don't have to bother with the generic writeup then).
Unvote: Andres
Vote: Reenk Roink
Not in those exact words, but you did pretty clearly state that you would enjoy lynching someone you didn't think was the Godfather more than you would enjoy winning the game:
Your schizophrenic play style is entertaining, but as noted by Seamus, you're a smart guy. I simply don't believe you'd intentionally avoid doing whatever you thought would win you the game at this late a phase. You're playing to win just like everyone else, which give dubious authenticity to your statements about doing the opposite.
Reenk nevered looked like the godfather to me, he could be a grunt, but not the GF.
Sasaki's theory about Beefy or White_Eyes could still be developed though.
Taka is absent from all games, i doubt he is the godfather or a grunt, keep the pressure on beefy, I mean whats wrong with RR and andres?
Love to see ATPG get his whole analysis theory of me being mafia now
Seriously QJC, beefy and white eyes are the dangerous zones BIG time
Also hasn't anyone kinda guessed my role yet?![]()
Never have I said that Andres was not the Godfather. I thought I made it clear before that just that QJC surpasses him in my suspicions to be the Godfather. So no, I believe you have thoroughly misunderstood the meaning of my "winning is fun but this is more fun" phrase.
It was first a subtle response to your assertion that I don't think Andres is Godfather anymore, perhaps I should have put "winning" in quotes.
Recall I added this to my post:
There are other reasons I was voting for Andres over QJC which I have not yet divulged. For one, the fact that Andres will certainly have a better shot of being lynched than QJC who many think is clean.Originally Posted by Reenk Roink
Well, I thank you and Seamus for the compliments, but I fail to see how being smart excludes me in anyway from my playing style. I mean, I would say that everyone here is smart. Every single person I've worked with closely in Mafia gives a lot of thought into the game, makes strategies, and comes up with plans. And I am quite sure that winning is not as important to me as some may ascribe to me.Originally Posted by TinCow
I am playing to win, to a degree, but I am also enjoying the absolute uncertainty at this stage. It should be a great finish.![]()
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I have seen mafioso edit their posts when they realize they have made themselves vulerable with a gaffe or some other slip-up. For this reason, I think it is wise to read the post as originally written, and then consider the edit as a separate post, taking into account the time it was done to see it in its proper context.
Without a doubt. GH actually got me with his 'game over' line in the last write-up, before I read the "Just kidding" bit. I've definitely enjoyed this game more than any of the others that I've been a townie in.It should be a great finish.![]()
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I do believe the song choice indicates that tonight the game will be over if we lynch a townie--therefore there are two mafia alive. In any case there is no harm in assuming that as long as it makes sense. I decided to reread the thread taking a look at tevash--beefy--white_eyes as the three mafia.
**********
1) Write ups
Beefy came under early pressure from tincow and then some others based on the write ups. In the next couple rounds the write ups were stolen from past games. This was not payed much attention at that time because it seemed like an obvious frame. It's worthwhile noting that white_eyes had considered the possibility of stealing a write up from a past game:
Following the first copied write up noticed by curio, they all three spend some time talking about the write ups and wifom and such.Originally Posted by White_eyes
Skipping past the lord winter lynch which I'll get back to, here is an interesting post from white_eyes where he expresses some outrage that a particular writeup was used.
Tincow was killed by the mafia.
Why this looks scummy to me: It has all the markings of one of those mafia freak outs over something the town barely notices. They send in their kill and all of a sudden they are getting voted by people saying it looks like it was written by them. White eyes had earlier considered stealing a past kill, they decide to do it but are worried about people saying they did it to protect beefy. The comment on how wifom it is. They off tincow as he was the one who started it. White_eyes acts upset about a writeup being used. Now, was this all just a frame attempt by the mafia on beefy? It wasn't a big enough thing in the thread and frames are rarely successful.
2) Lord winter lynch
Beefy and Sasaki were tied with two votes each. Reenk votes sasaki to save beefy and sasaki votes beefy to save himself. Tevash comes on and votes sasaki saving beefy. A mark against beefy considering that we can accused tevash was mafia. I unvote beefy to vote lord winter and beefy makes this post:
Votes for himself but is making sure there is enough time left. After his vote the count would still be 4 for sasaki and 3 for beefy. He later unvotes himself and white_eyes votes for lord winter.In that case, I got more then enough time to defend my self don't I? (I am in Japan now. So Im GST +9 or something)
Vote:Beefy
I don't think Sasaki is guilty either so just to save him.
I am more then willing to defend my self. But I don't know where to start. Could you give me couple of questions I can answer?
After the lord winter lynch there was only one kill. This was either accidental (mafia missed kill) or purposeful. Remember, there were only a couple nights where the mafia chose to make just one kill. Tevash was lynched not long after. YLC looked like he was going to be lynched soon based in part on the lord winter is mafia theory, and I was attacking atpg based on it. I stated earlier that LW had not posted in the thread until I said that that fact was proof of his guilt but that wasn't true, he had posted once or twice. The indication that are two mafia alive says to me that LW was innocent. White_eyes came off well having put the second vote on LW.
Other notes from the Sigurd-lynch round:
Beefy is suspicious of YLC for self voting despite self voting earlier:
And rather defensive:I second Sasakis comment.
YLC you played enough game to know that lynching is valuable and are the only way to get rid of the mafia. If you are innocent you wouldn't dare get your self lynched would you?
3) Tevash vs ATPGAttacked? Attacked how? I didn't even vote for him!Originally Posted by rhythmic
I only suggested to suicide or get replaced rather then wasting a lynch for him!
Big showdown.
Beefy starts by questioning ylc and fos'ing tevash:
He is also suspicious that ignoramus is still alive:Originally Posted by beefy
This is later echoed by white_eyes here, and this round is followed by the death of ignoramus. It looks to me like they thought ignoramus had a role.Originally Posted by beefy
Beefy does vote for tevash which is perhaps the biggest mark in his favor. However, I remember thinking that atpg was lynched for sure at that point, and the vote count was 5-2 when beefy voted for tevash. Considering that beefy rode the fence on tevash for the next two rounds this doesn't work as much in his favor as it first appears.Vote: Tevash
I think theres enough reasons to get Tevash lynched. While his not acting suspicious, I think he still falls in the category of lurking.
In the runoff:
White eyes appears torn between the two:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=808
and votes for pizza in response to ares voting for tevash:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=815
Beefy is hesitant as well:
and ends up voting pizza because:Originally Posted by beefy
Next round:Vote: ATPG
I want to let ATPG and Tevash fight it out first. We don't need to rush this lynch
Originally Posted by beefy
Originally Posted by beefy
In summary: The both appear to want tevash to live, but didn't want to appear as if they did. The other people attacking pizzaguy and defending tevash were much more outspoken. This is a solid link.Originally Posted by white_eyes
Other bits and pieces:
White_eyes doesn't like khaan claiming to know someone is mafia, it's possible he is worried:
He's also defensive:I am lost.....so what?....the detective(Khaan) was evil? anyway....I feel like Khaan is just screwing with us.....or is a scumbag trying to throw us off....(he is too good at his job
...
DON'T LISTEN TO KHAAN.......he is always Anti-town....even when he is town....
I never would trust him.....on "family guy mafia" his mind games alone helped Mafia win.....he even got an award for it....
And beefy is keeping a very close eye on the vote count:I was the MAJOR reason why there was a lurker victory in "Chicago Soiree" the only reason why I voted now, was because Khaan and his cryptic defense of ATPG....I have seen it before.... never listen to Khaan....ATPG did and over-analyzed until my name came up twice in a previous game......and we lost because of it...he trusted Khaan and figured he gave up his scum-buddy.....I repeatedly told him....NEVER over-analyze and SkyNet 2.0 is the King of all over-analysises...and I voted Lord Winter at the time because I thought "maybe there both innocent..." If I recall Sasaki was the first one to change his vote....and I was the second or third too.....I well not let another "Chicago Soiree" victory happen....and I sure as hell won't be the guy who helps that happen, so if you expect me to vote like crazy....then you are in for some disappointment..
Originally Posted by beefy
That's what I have up to page 36. Will read the rest and make an assessment of it.
Summary:
Beefy was accused based on the writeup. The writeup was later copied from a previous game, which all three suspects made sure of discussing in the thread. The main accuser (TinCow) was later killed.
Tevash voted to save beefy, beefy voted himself while making sure he wasn't in danger, Lord Winter was possible framed after white_eyes helped lynch him. Beefy votes for tevash when it looks like he isn't going to be lynched, switches to atpg in the runoff, says we shouldn't lynch tevash the next day and ends up voting him once he is well ahead and clearly going to be lynched.
Both beefy and white_eyes wanted to save tevash without being to outspoken about it.
Ignoramus was killed after both beefy and white_eyes had been suspicious that he was still alive (and therefore possible had a role). This fits a pattern. Tincow was killed despite often being a suspect. Ignoramus was killed despite being a suspect. White_eyes was concerned with khaan's claims about how he knew someone was mafia because he wasn't usually killed.
Also consider the lackluster nature of tevash's claim and the lack of role pm fakery. Andres and reenk are both capable of that. The tally from day 5:
Looks very good for quintus despite the fact that he acts really suspicious at least to me. Taka missed this vote.Askthepizzaguy: 5 (TevashSzat, Sasaki Kojiro, Andres, Reenk Roink, Seamus Fermanagh)
TevashSzat: 5 (Quintus.JC, YLC, Beefy187, Askthepizzaguy, Psychonaut)
Now all three suspects are voting atpg. Taka is now voting tevash. Taka has also continued lurking despite the number of lurkers who have been lynched this game.Askthepizzaguy: 8 (Sasaki Kojiro, Reenk Roink, White_eyes:D, TevashSzat, Beefy187, Seamus Fermanagh, Andres, Askthepizzaguy)
TevashSzat: 6 (Ignoramus, taka, Psychonaut, YLC, Chaotix27, glyphz)
The process of elimination works well for the case on beefy/whiteyes.
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I apologize for the poor formatting. I don't have the energy to go through and fix it up right now. Will get to the last 20 pages presently.
That's a very decent case, Sasaki. However, if Tevash was mafia, then you were not killed by the mafia. How do you explain your own death, and why do you think it occurred?
Right, but why? It really doesn't seem to me like a serial killer would wait that many turns before making a kill. If it was Ares, he also didn't kill anyone after you for a long time. This doesn't fit the MO for a serial killer at all. So, it seems like it must have been a targeted kill. You were probably killed off for a specific reason by someone who was not mafia. While there are other possibilities within the broad limits allowed by the amorphous 'twist', it's hard to shake the notion that this was a vigilante who somehow (investigation?) discovered that you were mafia.
Last edited by TinCow; 02-26-2009 at 22:35.
The implication in the writeup isn't that I'm mafia:
He wasn’t worried about dying, either. Sasaki, see, had everything planned out. He was a high-profile figure in every day’s voting, making sure never to look *too* noble while crusading loudly. No, Sasaki would always have that air of shiftiness about him, ensuring that both he would never die at night while at the same never looking too shifty to be lynched in any of the voting phases. Yes, Sasaki was sitting pretty, confident in both his day and night positions.
This would prove to be a fatal assumption.
I don't know what triggered the attack on me, it seems to be a one shot vigilante of sorts. If they wrote it and not GH they seem to think I'm a townie who was leading the town to the grave. A nude, juggling, unicyclist doesn't seem like an ordinary sort of "investigate and then kill mafia" role.
I was more or less being broad when i said has anyone guess my role yet, i never actually expected some kind of analysis over it![]()
u know, im actually very confused, because i've been bad and havent been following this thread. sorry -_-
for me, all i feel is that i dont think beefy as scummy. we had early contact in the game and we both had a mutual trust thing, and he has kept to it. in the early stages he contacted me and was eager to team up again to search out the mafia and shared information with me about other players (like who he was in contact with etc). he gave me the same vibes as in chicago when we tried to partner up to find mafia
as its nearing the end, i feel that i should pay more attention so i will read up on the last few pages to see what i think
and since theres no abstains
vote: taka as i dont want to accuse anyone yet
i will change my vote once i feel i dont like someone :P
Do you mind posting your correspondence with beefy from early in the game?
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Summary: Not much happened with these two during the last twenty pages, that's why I put it in a spoiler. Some suspicious stuff where white_eyes seemed to suspect Seamus of being the vigilante and trying to lynch him. Then they kept a low profile and didn't comment much.
Having made this case, I must say I am not capable of analyzing the other players with an unbiased eye. Someone else will have to do that. Will require a reread of the game most likely.
What I will try and do is make an alternate theory, one where Lord Winter was guilty and tevash was actually the detective who merely became to annoyed at the game and all the people bandwaggoning on a case he thought was poor and decided to quit. I may come up with something interesting, or I may be too blinded.
I told you he would show.......![]()
so just because I said something obvious....I am clearly scum??It's worthwhile noting that white_eyes had considered the possibility of stealing a write up from a past game:(I thought I commented on something TinCow said....)
I said that because its so true....you don't agree??I am lost.....so what?....the detective(Khaan) was evil? anyway....I feel like Khaan is just screwing with us.....or is a scumbag trying to throw us off....(he is too good at his job
...
DON'T LISTEN TO KHAAN.......he is always Anti-town....even when he is town....
I never would trust him.....on "family guy mafia" his mind games alone helped Mafia win.....he even got an award for it....or you would know if you played with Khaan as mafia....he really loves to screw with you....
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I had a mutual trust alliance with taka. Which is something I do with taka almost every single large games. We try a couple stunts to catch the mafia but it never goes too well
In this game, we had it until we were down to last 10. Unfortunately, we both survived.
Before I go into explaining. Mathematics shows that we lynched at least one mafia. But if we have two left we are gone which I'm sure some of you already explained
I guess I owe a explanation? I'll start answering Sasakis
1. Write ups
I can't defend my self here. No matter what I say, I could say the truth that I didn't write any of it. But don't think anyone is going to believe it now.
2. Lord Winter lynch
Like I said, Sasaki voted for Lord Winter, who was at that stage not that suspected. Me and Sasaki was the big gun. Sasaki voting for other instead of voting for me, meant he was willing to sacrifice his life. I voted my self as I didn't think Sasaki was guilty, and so we get more time to discuss other then two of us, who looks scummy.
Then on came YLC voting for him self. I did it too, but while mine was to give town more time, and for a fair run for Sasaki, YLC was willing to kill him self for no reason.
I wasn't angry but I was slightly annoyed at YLCs reasoning. Thats why I came out more aggressive then I thought to Rythmic. And I immediately realized that but I didn't want to edit my post if possible as that looks scummy.
3. Tevash vs ATPG
To be honest, I didn't want to lynch either of them. If I had other choice then I would've voted for other fellows. I was a big ATPG supporter. But Tevash revealed as a detective. I know that no matter how scummy it looks, if Tevash has even small possibility of being the detective, I have to save him instead of ATPG who is at most just a plain old townie.
So I started as a ATPG supporter, leaned towards Tevash, then ended up going for ATPG as Tevash revealed.
4. Ignomorus
Not a fan of lurkers. Never was and never will be. Especially if Igno lives with few posts and shows up just to make a vote with few reasonings, just as if his avoiding the WoG its silly not to think that his guilty. Mafia killed him, so I realize I was wrong about Igno. But I had suspicions.
I know I haven't been perfect player. I got lots of things wrong. But I gave the most attention to this game. I've tried hard. And its going to sting if we end up losing. Lynching me will be the wrong choice.
I'll be around if anyone has more questions. Ill try my best to defend my self
and for sasaki, here's our contact details:
so that's pretty much my reason i believe in beefy, i'll be gutted if he was indeed mafiaOriginally Posted by Beefy187
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