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Thread: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    As I understand it the plan was to knock out all the US' aircraft carriers at Pearl Harbour so that they couldn't defend the Pacific. With freedom to cruise around the pacific Japan would be able to threaten the west coast with bombing raids rather than a land invasion and this should have been enough to make the US come to terms.

    Yamamoto predicted that the Japanese could invade freely for a year and then would be in trouble and he was fully aware that Japan would lose once they failed to catch the aircraft carriers at Pearl Harbour. Also he was supposedly against declaring war on the US in the first place but was overulled.
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    Member Member Agent Miles's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    The Japanese eventually got around to a very possible Midway invasion, so that they could invade Hawaii. Nothing less than miraculous luck really made it impossible even that late in 1942. All of the supplies and fuel that were used to gobble up empty islands should have been directed right from the start at the U.S. The Japanese seemed to have the supplies to overrun the south Pacific from their logistics base at Truk so I think that they could have done the same to the West Coast from a base in Hawaii.
    Remember, The U.S. was totally unprepared to defend the West Coast. The Japanese army that had raped Nanking is most likely going to take L.A., even if they will run out of supplies. Now you assure FDR that the Japs don’t have the logistics to win a protracted war and so what if one quarter of the U.S. aircraft industry is in or around L.A. The President would have to choose to watch California undergo a destruction that would have made Sherman’s march to the sea pale in comparison, just to win this logistics war. In the meantime, Britain and Russia would surely starve as the U.S. was fighting for its life. PH was a tragic embarrassment. This would have been a disaster that could only be avoided by a truce.
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    Clan Takiyama Senior Member CBR's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    And this article shows the logistical impossibility of invading Pearl Harbor. http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm

    But one Japanese error at Pearl Harbor was that they did not send in a third wave to hit the fuel depots and machine shops. Another error was not using their submarines to hit US freighters and tankers when they had a good chance at doing a lot of damage in the first months.

    That could have set back the US effort maybe a year back or more. Of course one can doubt if it would have changed the overall outcome.


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    Member Member Agent Miles's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    And that article by a PC gamer discusses an invasion after the conquest of all the jungles that the Japanese wasted their effort on. That probably is true, except, that I ‘m talking about a DoW on the U.S. only, followed by a blitzkrieg aimed at the West Coast. Every bit of logistics that was used to move troops thousands of miles to take places like Rabaul, etc., instead is aimed at Midway and then Hawaii. The entire IJN focused on one immediate goal, Invasion U.S.A. We can be very jaded today about how incredibly lucky we were, but that doesn’t change the situation as it really was. The Japanese had the best fighter in the world, pilots with thousands of combat hours, more carriers and battlewagons, better optics, heavy cruisers with killer torpedoes, a light infantry army that didn’t need miles of trucks to supply it, and years of experience at the business at hand. Somehow it takes more logistics to take L.A. than to do all the other conquests that the Japanese managed instead? That’s everyone’s point, right?
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    Clan Takiyama Senior Member CBR's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    Quote Originally Posted by Agent Miles View Post
    Somehow it takes more logistics to take L.A. than to do all the other conquests that the Japanese managed instead? That’s everyone’s point, right?
    A quick look on a map (Google maps will do just fine) will show you the difference in distance from Japan-US west coast compared with Japan-Indonesia.

    Not only do you need to have shipping capacity to transport the units you also need shipping to supply them. Japan barely had capacity enough to take its objectives in SE Asia.


    CBR
    Last edited by CBR; 02-04-2009 at 20:21.

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    Member Member Agent Miles's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    Right, so the Japanese live off the land while they destroy a quarter of the U.S. aircraft industry and slaughter millions of Americans. How many ships fed the Japanese soldiers that surrendered in the Philipines in the 1960’s? You want FDR to let Europe starve while you scorch the west coast? I don't think that Churchill or Stalin would agree to a Japan first strategy.
    As you point out, Japan took those objectives in SE Asia.
    Last edited by Agent Miles; 02-04-2009 at 20:51.
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    Vermonter and Seperatist Member Uesugi Kenshin's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    Quote Originally Posted by Agent Miles View Post
    Right, so the Japanese live off the land while they destroy a quarter of the U.S. aircraft industry and slaughter millions of Americans. How many ships fed the Japanese soldiers that surrendered in the Philipines in the 1960’s? You want FDR to let Europe starve while you scorch the west coast? I don't think that Churchill or Stalin would agree to a Japan first strategy.
    As you point out, Japan took those objectives in SE Asia.
    Ummm the guys who surrendered after the '40's were tiny groups weren't they? It's much harder for a few thousand men, not to mention the number of men required to do anything on the US West Coast, to survive off the land than it is for four or five guys.

    I think you're completely off-base with your idea that Japan could attack the US mainland. There is some chance that the Japanese could have done something to Hawaii, but the west coast was completely out of their reach. Even if they landed troops there they would have basically been left there with no supplies and US forces would have been quickly organized to stamp them out. Millions would not have been slaughtered.
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    Clan Takiyama Senior Member CBR's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    Quote Originally Posted by Agent Miles View Post
    Right, so the Japanese live off the land while they destroy a quarter of the U.S. aircraft industry and slaughter millions of Americans.
    We are talking modern day armies. They cannot live off the land like an army could do 200 years ago. Shells and bullets don't grow on trees. One might get lucky to take fuel but otherwise that has to be transported too.

    How many ships fed the Japanese soldiers that surrendered in the Philipines in the 1960’s?
    I fail to see how a few fanatic survivors compares with a fully functioning army.

    You want Japan to attack and occupy Midway and Hawaii and then move on to US west coast right?

    Even if we assume Japan had the capacity to transport all the 11 divisions how long would it have taken to neutralize Hawaii? A few days, a few weeks? How long to embark all troops minus losses and forces needed to occupy the islands. Then maybe another 10 days for freighters to reach the coast of California. I doubt in invasion could have been possible before early January 1942 and that is assuming everything runs by the clock, and Clausewitz had something to say about war and friction but hey never mind that.

    So assuming no troubles from US carriers or submarines the Japanese armada finally spots the coast of California. That should be a piece of cake right?

    Maybe we should look at the historical US response to Pearl Harbor. By early February 1942 the Western Defense Command had about 250,000 soldiers incl 6 infantry divisions, a cavalry regiment and 14 AA regiments. Even by late December 1941 3 infantry divisions were located there.

    A couple of weeks after Pearl Harbor they actually relaxed a bit as it became obvious that there was no immediate threat. So we can safely assume troops would have been sent there faster if they actually thought there was going to be an invasion.

    So even if assuming that the few hundred aircrafts that had been gathered there was not enough to upset Japanese air superiority, and assuming that the US troops were green, would a Japanese army of maybe 9 divisions and 4,500 miles from home just have a walkover when they invaded California?

    Well you can guess what I think of their chances...

    And then there are pesky things like the Philippines having even more time to mobilize but of course that does not matter much as long as the Japanese are losing on the other side of the Pacific.


    CBR

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    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    Quote Originally Posted by Agent Miles View Post
    Right, so the Japanese live off the land while they destroy a quarter of the U.S. aircraft industry and slaughter millions of Americans. How many ships fed the Japanese soldiers that surrendered in the Philipines in the 1960’s? You want FDR to let Europe starve while you scorch the west coast? I don't think that Churchill or Stalin would agree to a Japan first strategy.
    As you point out, Japan took those objectives in SE Asia.
    You think that US would have capitulated if invaded? I think the opposite. Surely invasion might have positive effect on European war for Germany, since US would have made it sure to focus on completely defeating Japan as their top priority.
    With the huge depth of US, they could have even evacuated West coast to midwest, while gearing up their own forces. I see no chance not so ever for any hypothetical Japanese invasion to succeed.
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    Old Town Road Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    Quote Originally Posted by Agent Miles View Post
    And that article by a PC gamer discusses an invasion after the conquest of all the jungles that the Japanese wasted their effort on. That probably is true, except, that I ‘m talking about a DoW on the U.S. only, followed by a blitzkrieg aimed at the West Coast. Every bit of logistics that was used to move troops thousands of miles to take places like Rabaul, etc., instead is aimed at Midway and then Hawaii. The entire IJN focused on one immediate goal, Invasion U.S.A. We can be very jaded today about how incredibly lucky we were, but that doesn’t change the situation as it really was. The Japanese had the best fighter in the world, pilots with thousands of combat hours, more carriers and battlewagons, better optics, heavy cruisers with killer torpedoes, a light infantry army that didn’t need miles of trucks to supply it, and years of experience at the business at hand. Somehow it takes more logistics to take L.A. than to do all the other conquests that the Japanese managed instead? That’s everyone’s point, right?
    There is no way the Japanese step foot on the US mainland. I wish they had tried the war would've been over by '42.

    Besides what does the US offer anyway? A longer front ? Broken supply lines? Do you really think FDR would've negotiated with the sub-human japs? It would've been a disaster complete and utter.
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    is not a senior Member Meneldil's Avatar
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    Default Re : WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    The error of Japan was not to attack the US or to not try a land invasion of the west coast, but to think that this war was similar to 19th-century wars.

    They expected the US to surrender right after PH, just like Russia did in 1905 after losing (badly) its Eastern navy.
    The thing is, the US were contempting entering the war against Germany, and FDR perfectly knew that what was going on was a total war on a global scale. Not some 'I defeated you once so you have to accept my peace treaty" old kind of war, but a "We'll fight till one of us is almost dead and beg for his life" one.

    Unlike Germany, Japan wasn't ready for a total-full-scale war. Things got out of hands in China because the Kuomintang (and later, the CCP) were too stuborn to give up, and because the local japanese generals went crazy (against the IJA headquarters' opinion), not because Japan wanted to conquer whole China and exterminate the Chinese population. They did it because they couldn't force the nationalists to accept peace, and thus, had to fight to death.

    I'm pretty sure that even a land invasion in California wouldn't have been enough to impose a peace treaty to the US. Japan would likely have had to invade the whole country, and completely defeat the will of the american population, which is probably even more impossible than invading Russia.

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    Member Member Agent Miles's Avatar
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    Default Re: WW2: The Composition and Capabilities of the Japanese Military

    After the war, Stalin confided in his daughter that at one point, his staff raced out to his dacha, where normally he was never disturbed, to tell him that German scout units had been sighted near Moscow. Stalin told her that he was initially certain that his staff had come out to shoot him and surrender to the Fascists. What if his staff had done this? If Stalin was fearful, then it came that close. A smug plan to defeat a nation over several years by burying them with numbers doesn’t work if you are beaten in several months.
    FDR wanted to beat Hitler first, perhaps because of Einstein’s expressed fear that the Nazis were developing the bomb. A Japanese invasion would certainly monopolize U.S. resources. T-34’s may have stopped the Wehrmacht, but lend-lease fed the Russians and the UK. To stop the Japanese in the U.S., FDR would have to turn his back on Stalin and Churchill. The Japanese don’t have to cross the Mississippi and take D.C. FDR could not afford an invasion and a protracted war in the U.S. Imagine a Bataan death march by millions of Californians.
    Last edited by Agent Miles; 02-04-2009 at 19:59.
    Sometimes good people must kill bad people to protect the rest of the people.

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