Re: Pakistan; About to fall the militant Islam?
Sadly I think that there is a good chance that Pakistan will indeed fall apart. The politicians seem to be unable to do anything besides argue with each other, while the local extremists move into the power vacuum. Corruption among the politicians seems to be rife, and the army is weakened, bleeding from offensives against militants and internally divided. It is sad that the politicians can't get themselves together, as the electorate voted overwhelmingly for secular parties....
I suppose if things get really desperate, the army might (if it hasn't broken under the strain), with the backing of most of the world, step in, and it would be a military dictatorship once again. Whether they can bring about some order in the country is debateable however, given what happened last time.
If the army does't take control, my uneducated guess would be that the country fractures into 2 main areas, with the PPP in the Sind and Sharif in the Punjab. The pashtun tribal areas in the NW might well be talibanised, and Balochistan will be some sort of tribal federation. If that does happen, gawd, it would be an enormous mess, with massive spillover effects in India and Afghanistan especially. Even the Chinese are worried (they have a small piece of Kashmir), the last thing they want is a terrorist haven near their restless Xinjiang region. Not to mention the nukes.
I don't think that the outrage over the attacts on Sri Lanka's cricketers will have much bearing on the downward spiral. The government just seems to be too ineffectual, and since the main political parties can't do anything but fight each other....
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Originally Posted by Xiahou
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