Re: Poland-Lithuania
As in every Total War game, Poland is in a pretty hopeless strategic position. You are surrounded by the big three: Russia, Prussia, and Austria. The Ottoman Empire and Sweden are nearby as well. You have no port and are unlikely to be become a major trade or colonial power.
At the start you are allied with Russia who are at war with Crimea and the Ottomans. My policy with regards to the Muscovites is containment. They are already powerful enough, and will only become an exponentially bigger threat if they start getting large amounts of trade income. Russian expansion into the Balkans must also be prevented. Revoke Russia's military access and immediately declare war on Crimea. You should be able to take it before the Russians get there, although the battle can be tough since your starting forces consist of only militia and pikemen. A DOW on Crimea also brings in their protector, the Ottoman Empire, but their commitment is questionable and they accepted peace after I seized Moldavia. You now have a lucrative trade port and I suggest making the most of it, perhaps with a trade deal with the Marathas or U.K.
Once the south is secure, immediately march north with as many new units as you can raise. It is only a matter of a few turns before the Great Nothern War breaks out against Sweden. Your allies, Russia and Denmark, are eager to seize as much land as possible for themselves. Once again, the objective is to contain Russian imperialism. Try to seize the Baltics before they get there. If you succeed, you will have your first shipyard in St. Petersburg. There's also no reason not to march on Finland, if your army is still strong enough. If you have succeeded in cutting off Russia's access to both the Black and Baltic Seas, then just make sure to keep them happy with an occasional gift and they shouldn't bother you for a while.
Meanwhile, on the home front, I suggest bribing Austria for a trade deal and possible alliance. This will give you time to focus on the Teutonic threat. Prussia starts out with plug bayonets and quickly develops ring bayonets, so I suggest pilfering their college for all its worth just to maintain parity. Most likely, by the time the Great Northern War winds down, the Prussians will do something aggressive. In my case, they declared war on my protectorate, Courland. They managed to take undefended Gdansk, but within a turn or two, my army returned from the Baltics and took East Prussia (defended by an 8-star Prussian general who promptly charged straight into canister shot). A newly built second army advanced north from Warsaw and retook Gdansk, then moved on to the Prussian capital.
Once the Prussians are eliminated and you've built up a decent Baltic fleet in St. Petersburg, you can use it to sail over and finish off Sweden. At this point, you will have a relatively secure strategic position, with allies all around (Denmark to the west, Russia to the east, and Austria to the south). You will also have met two of your campaign objectives (Stockholm and Berlin) which you will have to keep garrisoned for a while to maintain order. The next move is pretty open ended, but the remaining objectives in the long campaign are to take Vienna and Istanbul. Russia is also a constant threat, so always watch your back. India and America are not impossible, but you will always have more important threats to worry about back home.
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