The Settlement [Concluded]

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I urge the town to vote for TinCow today.

In every game I've played with him, he's taken a very measured and thoughtful approach as a townie:

Take this example from capo II:

As I've told other people, I am at a disadvantage because I do not know any of the 'reputations' that people have from other games. I am operating purely based on what I have read in this thread and the content of PMs I have received. Based on that, Louis is one of the few people I have seen who has been trying to help and who hasn't been specifically gunning for a certain person. Given the limited resources at my disposal, I think that's the only logical way for me to make a decision. If I see evidence that Louis is a bad guy, I will react accordingly, but I simply can't base a decision on 'reputation' when that in itself requires that I trust that the 'reputation' information I am being given is accurate in the first place.

Or recall his reaction to Tevash's detective claim: calmly ask to see his role pm, withhold further judgment until the next day. Still not posted, recommend lynch. Attention to detail, emphasis on rational arguments.

Or check out his own description of how he acts as town.


Now look at his response to the writeup that said Ares was guilty:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The priest king was interrupted by a slave who barged inside the entrance hall holding a rock that while covered with blood still had an uncanny shine. The slave exclaimed: "I found these on master pevergreen's body, LOOK!"

As all present in the gathering gazed into the palm sized stone, they saw the entire events of pevergreen's last moments being played out. They saw the argument with the owl and they saw the armored man approach and kill him. They even saw who the armored man was. It was the man called Ares!

Reenk Roink immediately gave the order to his Bronze Companions to draw their swords and seize Ares, but amazingly, this drew protestations from the crowd who demanded they vote on the matter.

Am I the only person here who finds it extremely convenient that we have simply been told who was guilty? Even if that was the result of a so-called "watcher," presumably the watcher would simply have that information themselves and then have to produce it to the rest of us. It seems absurdly suspicious that a completely anonymous 'stone' was left on the body to convince us all of what happened. How do we know that this stone wasn't placed there by the killer?

I see nothing in that role PM that leaps out as being fake. Why do you think it is?

1) Actually, yes, because I feel like Ares is the kind of person I would be able to sway with my arguments if I felt the need to. I don't feel particularly threatened by him as a player and I think I would stand a far better chance at spotting an irregularity in his behavior than I would in someone like you, GH, Andres, etc.

2) Yes, anyone. The way I see it, Ares has probably been framed, which means he's innocent. Thus, anyone is a better choice than Ares.

Let me ask you a question: Are you so afraid of Ares that you think we won't be able to spot his scuminess unless we lynch him right here and right now?

You are wrong about this. Occam's razor points to his innocence because:

We don't, plain and simple. This is too good to be true. Therefore it is not. Mafia are not anonymously revealed in first day write-ups.

I think the discussion about whether Ares' role PM was fake or not is pointless. All this talk about the presence or lack of an introduction line is a waste of time. If that role PM is fake, it was an extremely good forgery. It mimics Reenk's writing style perfectly, and is laced with just the proper amount of humor throughout. No one would make that good of a forgery and then not put in the standard greeting line that we ALL got. It is far more likely that Ares is telling the truth and didn't post it at first because he didn't think it was actually part of the role. This is consistent with him not posting the joke earlier as well. As for the formating, I've seen that happen many times with real role PMs. It happens when people simply highlight and copy what they see in their PM box instead of hitting reply and using the formated text inside the reply box. The better point of discussion is whether the current situation seems like a frame attempt or whether it seems like a legitimate reveal of a mafioso.

Are you serious? *I* have been ignoring major arguments? I was the first person who had the guts to stick his neck out for Ares when he was about to be bandwagoned into an insta-lynch. I've been providing a good deal of arguments for my position this entire day phase. Simply making one post which concentrates on a lesser issue doesn't change the fact that I've been arguing heavily this entire time.



WHOA. WHOA. WHOA.

I claimed "there can't possibly be a watcher role in this game"? You accuse me about going after a straw man, and then you just fabricate a statement? What I said was that a watcher role would presumably only get the information in a night result PM and would have to disclose it just like any other detective. I never said that there wasn't a watcher in this game, just that the stone which showed Ares did not seem like it was the result of a watcher.

Now who isn't reading carefully?



I am waiting to here what pevergreen has to say before I decide on Ares. Ares already has more than enough votes to get him lynched, so my vote doesn't make a difference. I'm keeping it on FH for the time being in the hopes that it will encourage him to speak more.

Sorry for the MASSIVE amount of quotes.

The point is, TinCow defended Ares very energetically, starting almost immediately after the kills were posted (before it was clear Ares would be lynched). Now, anyone who defends someone who turns out to be scum should looked at carefully, but TinCow raises more eyebrows than that because of the contrast it presents with his usual townie style. Despite strong evidence against Ares in the writeup of the host, he was not cautious or measured at all in his defense of him. There are bold claims and logical fallacies throughout his defense. For example:

1) "Ares has probably been framed, which means he's innocent. Thus, anyone is a better choice than Ares."

Ares probably being framed would mean that he is possibly innocent. Mafia can frame themselves (unlikely), mafia can frame other mafia (possible), and it could in fact not be a frame at all (likely). And, unless TinCow does not consider himself innocent, he should consider Ares a better lynch than himself.

2) "We don't, plain and simple. This is too good to be true. Therefore it is not. Mafia are not anonymously revealed in first day write-ups."

There is no basis whatsoever for these claims. Ares was anonymously revealed in the write-up, so what basis is there for saying that he must have been framed?

3) "If that role PM is fake, it was an extremely good forgery."

Multiple people had stated that they were confidant that reenk would have given the mafia fake claims. So TinCow was either ignoring that deliberately, or not being careful and measured.


Soon after this, Ares posted a confession with a role pm that had him as "edgar's swordsman"

Kill: Every night period, you may attempt to kill one settler. This will involve breaking into his tent or house and putting him to the sword.

pevergreen was killed with a mace, not a sword, and the killer is described as a warrior of vode, not of edgar. So it seems clear that Ares was not being entirely truthful. So:

1) Ares was trying to protect TinCow, who had gone out on a limb defending him
2) Ares was trying to frame TinCow, who had gone out on a limb defending him
3) Ares was messing around, or doing something else

Now, this point is wifom. And I'm pretty sure it will be said to be wifom by most of the town. So why not do it if you're mafia, you can just say it's wifom right?

Regardless, that isn't the main point.

************

To summarize, TinCow acted in a manner very unlike how he acts as town (and how he says he acts as town), in defense of a confessed killer. I think I also see signs of him being annoyed with Ares' being revealed in the writeup on the first day, but this is the kind of thing that triggers my gut, not what I'd use as evidence (because the inevitable defense is nuh-uh, and I can't claim to read minds). However, I think if you take a look at his posts you'd see why I think that.

[taka]

i buy your arguement, it's logically thought out and backed up with evidence

Vote: Tincow

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'll buy that. You've made him a suspect in my mind.

I'll probably follow Sasaki's lead. I am in his cult, after all. And, I think he's paying more attention to what's happening in-thread; I'm doing too much stuff behind the scenes and my attention is divided. And, I thought he was mafia and it seems clear to me now that he's not. If anything better comes along I'll vote for them, but I'd like TinCow to have a chance to defend himself.

Vote: TinCow as a pressure vote. I reserve the right to change it.

[naut]

Forgot to bold my vote, must of had soup on my mind.

Vote: Yoyoma1910

[Lord Winter]

Vote: Abstain
Sasski's case isn't good enough for me to warrant a vote.. He makes some points but there's also gaps there. For example,

2) "We don't, plain and simple. This is too good to be true. Therefore it is not. Mafia are not anonymously revealed in first day write-ups."

There is no basis whatsoever for these claims. Ares was anonymously revealed in the write-up, so what basis is there for saying that he must have been framed?

If I remember Tincow wasn't the only one who defended Ares on the same grounds. GH was weary among a few others. Throw in Ephuses were the town lynched off the write up which was written by the mafia to frame people (and lost badly) and there is reason to be cautious. The fact is Tincow did have reasonable motives to act like he did. Furthermore, why would Tincow, an experienced player, risk his neck defending his partner at such an early stage? It's mafia 101, suicide.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Vote: Abstain
Sasski's case isn't good enough for me to warrant a vote.. He makes some points but there's also gaps there. For example,



If I remember Tincow wasn't the only one who defended Ares on the same grounds. GH was weary among a few others. Throw in Ephuses were the town lynched off the write up which was written by the mafia to frame people (and lost badly) and there is reason to be cautious. The fact is Tincow did have reasonable motives to act like he did. Furthermore, why would Tincow, an experienced player, risk his neck defending his partner at such an early stage? It's mafia 101, suicide.

I disagree.

The accusation wasn't: Tincow is using logic I disagree with, therefore he is guilty. The point was that the way he was defending ares was out of character for tincow. I don't feel that GH was out of character.

Second, Tincow defended Ares right out of the gate. He had no way of knowing that ares would be lynched or that popular opinion would be so against him. Mafia do defend their partners, because it isn't suicide.

Also, the implication of Ares wasn't in the mafia writeup, and in the godfather TinCow was willing to vote Beefy based on the mafia written kills.

[Lord Winter]

I disagree.

The accusation wasn't: Tincow is using logic I disagree with, therefore he is guilty. The point was that the way he was defending ares was out of character for tincow. I don't feel that GH was out of character.

Second, Tincow defended Ares right out of the gate. He had no way of knowing that ares would be lynched or that popular opinion would be so against him. Mafia do defend their partners, because it isn't suicide.

Also, the implication of Ares wasn't in the mafia writeup, and in the godfather TinCow was willing to vote Beefy based on the mafia written kills.

I was arguing that Tincows defense of Ares was a normal action for him. His defense was not triggered by Ares's defense but instead by the way we got the information. It is perfectly within Tincows character to question the information in the write up, especially with certain past games were a blind following of the write up lead to a towns defeat. The fact that Tincow defend Ares's right out of the gate further supports that his defense was based off of the delivery of the information. Questioning something that is too good to be true is normal behavior.

Also, the implication of Ares wasn't in the mafia writeup, and in the godfather TinCow was willing to vote Beefy based on the mafia written kills.

IIRC he was voting based on writing style not content, two completely different things.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I was arguing that Tincows defense of Ares was a normal action for him. His defense was not triggered by Ares's defense but instead by the way we got the information. It is perfectly within Tincows character to question the information in the write up, especially with certain past games were a blind following of the write up lead to a towns defeat. The fact that Tincow defend Ares's right out of the gate further supports that his defense was based off of the delivery of the information. Questioning something that is too good to be true is normal behavior.



IIRC he was voting based on writing style not content, two completely different things.

Yes but this is just the alternate explanation--which always exists. Mafioso is lurking, you say "that's suspicious" he says "busy with real life" etc etc. In my opinion you have to give TinCow the benefit of the doubt on too many things to not vote him today. The tone of his posts--I don't think you are disputing this--are not his usual townie self. So which is more likely, that he was greatly worried at the prospect of the town lynching based off the write up (which again didn't come from the mafia), or that he was worried about his partner being lynched? What do you think about Ares's editing his role pm to make it look like he was a SK? I could care less about the possibility of it being a frame job. If you don't lynch people because they "might be being framed" you'll let mafioso's get away with far to many things.

As always it comes down to a matter of probability and of "best lynch available".

[Askthepizzaguy]

Furthermore, why would Tincow, an experienced player, risk his neck defending his partner at such an early stage? It's mafia 101, suicide.

Because he's an experienced player, and the opposite effect happened. I defended TinCow for playing risky. I think a number of people were on TinCow's side for questioning the blindness of the bandwagon. And it seems the mafia are numerous or growing, so it seems to me that TinCow could afford to take such a risk.

I don't want to say WIFOM, but... it could be WIFOM. That said, I encourage abstain votes and also votes on other suspects, so TinCow can explain himself.

[Beefy187]

Because he's an experienced player, and the opposite effect happened. I defended TinCow for playing risky. I think a number of people were on TinCow's side for questioning the blindness of the bandwagon. And it seems the mafia are numerous or growing, so it seems to me that TinCow could afford to take such a risk.

I don't want to say WIFOM, but... it could be WIFOM. That said, I encourage abstain votes and also votes on other suspects, so TinCow can explain himself.

[CountArach]

Vote: ATPG

I am true to my word. He has sought out his own goals outside of that of the town (And apparently achieved them) and we cannot be sure that he hasn't got other goals. However, I would still like to hear TinCow's defence and may change my vote based on that.

I find the fact we have 3 kills tonight and 2 on the previous night to be intriguing.

[TinCow]

The point is, TinCow defended Ares very energetically, starting almost immediately after the kills were posted (before it was clear Ares would be lynched). Now, anyone who defends someone who turns out to be scum should looked at carefully, but TinCow raises more eyebrows than that because of the contrast it presents with his usual townie style. Despite strong evidence against Ares in the writeup of the host, he was not cautious or measured at all in his defense of him.

This is entirely correct, I was very energetic in my defense of Ares because I felt like he was being bandwagoned to death. I honestly thought he was innocent until late in the day and I didn't see many other people standing up for him. I try to lynch someone I think is guilty every day. I didn't think Ares was guilty, and as such I had to put in a lot of energy into his defense because there was a lot of energy attacking him.

1) "Ares has probably been framed, which means he's innocent. Thus, anyone is a better choice than Ares." [/U]

Ares probably being framed would mean that he is possibly innocent. Mafia can frame themselves (unlikely), mafia can frame other mafia (possible), and it could in fact not be a frame at all (likely). And, unless TinCow does not consider himself innocent, he should consider Ares a better lynch than himself.

This is silly. I wasn't at threat of being lynched yesterday, so I had no reason to lynch Ares to save myself. I certainly would have done so if it had been necessary, but it wasn't. Since it wasn't necessary, I was free to vote based on my actual feelings of guilt or innocence, not self-preservation.

2) "We don't, plain and simple. This is too good to be true. Therefore it is not. Mafia are not anonymously revealed in first day write-ups."

There is no basis whatsoever for these claims. Ares was anonymously revealed in the write-up, so what basis is there for saying that he must have been framed?

Sorry, but I simply disagree. I've never even heard of a mafioso being anonymously revealed as a mafioso in a write-up. It seems extremely unbalanced to me and thus I thought it had to be a red herring. This has never happened in any game I have ever played or read, so I stand by my statement that this kind of thing doesn't happen. Obviously I can no longer say that, but it was true to my mind at that time.

3) "If that role PM is fake, it was an extremely good forgery."

Multiple people had stated that they were confidant that reenk would have given the mafia fake claims. So TinCow was either ignoring that deliberately, or not being careful and measured.

I was well aware of that, but other people were actively claiming that it was faked. I was refuting their claims as part of my defense of Ares.

To summarize, TinCow acted in a manner very unlike how he acts as town (and how he says he acts as town), in defense of a confessed killer. I think I also see signs of him being annoyed with Ares' being revealed in the writeup on the first day, but this is the kind of thing that triggers my gut, not what I'd use as evidence (because the inevitable defense is nuh-uh, and I can't claim to read minds). However, I think if you take a look at his posts you'd see why I think that.

If you say so. All I did was defend someone I thought was being railroaded to an early grave. No one should be bandwagoned without discussion, especially not on a 'serious' first day, and I didn't see a whole lot of other people discussing it.

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

Thoughts...

1) I find it interesting that two scribes were offed within two days by a person/persons incapable of writing. This would indicate either the murder was an untutored member of the lower-class, or more likely in my view, an adherent of reading as a virtue... *shudder*

2) Regarding Tincow, personally I think its much ado about nothing. One thing I have noticed about him over the past couple of games is a tendency to advocate for suspects when a bandwagon is in the process of forming. Personally reading through after Aries reveal (although in ignorance of it at the time) I thought he made some very good points. By all means if you think he's guilty vote for him, but not exclusively, and not by a huge margin...

3) If present theory is correct regarding Psychonaut, then Yoyama has questions to answer. Would be my top candidate at this time.

'Khann too has me on edge, but need to double check something before I take that any further.

[Andres]

This is entirely correct, I was very energetic in my defense of Ares because I felt like he was being bandwagoned to death. I honestly thought he was innocent until late in the day and I didn't see many other people standing up for him. I try to lynch someone I think is guilty every day. I didn't think Ares was guilty, and as such I had to put in a lot of energy into his defense because there was a lot of energy attacking him.

What is interesting, is the fact that you rigorously (does that word exist in English?) defended him. Why was his survival so important to you? If you were sure he was innocent, then why not looking for another suspect and trying to convince town to lynch that suspect?

What you did now, was defending one suspect and you had no reasons to be 100 % sure of that suspects' innocence.

The main question is, why was defending Ares so important?

This is silly. I wasn't at threat of being lynched yesterday, so I had no reason to lynch Ares to save myself. I certainly would have done so if it had been necessary, but it wasn't. Since it wasn't necessary, I was free to vote based on my actual feelings of guilt or innocence, not self-preservation.

That's entirely unrelated to what you quoted from Sasaki

Sorry, but I simply disagree. I've never even heard of a mafioso being anonymously revealed as a mafioso in a write-up. It seems extremely unbalanced to me and thus I thought it had to be a red herring.

I think the write-up was obvious enough. Interpretatio cessat in claris

This has never happened in any game I have ever played or read, so I stand by my statement that this kind of thing doesn't happen. Obviously I can no longer say that, but it was true to my mind at that time.

Monsieur is a conservative?

I was well aware of that, but other people were actively claiming that it was faked. I was refuting their claims as part of my defense of Ares.

If you say so. All I did was defend someone I thought was being railroaded to an early grave. No one should be bandwagoned without discussion, especially not on a 'serious' first day, and I didn't see a whole lot of other people discussing it.

Yes, but the emphasis was too much on the defense of Ares. That in combination with the fact that Ares made it clear with his unnecessary second reveal that he was indeed scum.

Your strong defense of Ares, in the proces not paying attention to other possible suspects and the fact that Ares was as good as certain scum, make you look very suspicious.

Vote : TinCow

ATPG, do you have something to do with the dead of Beefy187, the tax collector? IIRC, I read somewhere that you claimed that your victory condition was to outlive the tax collector.

[CountArach]

What is interesting, is the fact that you rigorously (does that word exist in English?) defended him.

Yep, indeed it does.

Why was his survival so important to you? If you were sure he was innocent, then why not looking for another suspect and trying to convince town to lynch that suspect?

I'm not sure this is a valid attack of TinCow to be honest. Defending someone you consider innocent is just as valid as attacking someone you consider guilty. Now, was the evidence stacked in favour of Ares being guilty? Yes, absolutely. However, claiming that defending an innocent is counter-productive is the sort of play that doesn't really get us anywhere.

I'm not entirely sure TinCow is guilty myself. The entire case is based off of his defence of Ares. Now, if the two of them were Mafia, I think TinCow would hang Ares willingly with the realisation that defending someone who is practically guaranteed to be guilty is a sure-fire way of getting attention draw to yourself. I find it implausible to suggest this is WIFOM.

Something to mull over with ATPG though is his apparent missing of the evidence that Ares was guilty at the start of the first day phase. He was going his own way for a bit, perhaps in an effort to deflect away from it? Then again I may just be searching for evidence where there is none. Still, it seems very un-ATPG to me. But I also don't think ATPG is worthy of the lynch (He convinced me of as much over MSN), instead someone with a higher challenge rating should challenge him to a duel. If he refuses, we can lynch him later...

Unvote: ATPG
Vote: Abstain - at least for now...

[Askthepizzaguy]

ATPG, do you have something to do with the dead of Beefy187, the tax collector? IIRC, I read somewhere that you claimed that your victory condition was to outlive the tax collector.

Not in the slightest. I don't have night kill ability, and if I did, I wouldn't use it on a townie.

I know, right now, at this moment, I look like a jerk because I said a mason victory condition was to outlast the Tax Collector. Unfortunately beefy187 did leave clues here in the thread, and after I said the masons would like to outlast him, someone decided they would also like to see him go and destroyed him. That's after I decided to drop my vendetta against him and keep his identity a secret.

If I were mafia, I just pulled one of the dumbest moves known to man; tell someone I want them dead, and then kill them. I beg your indulgence for a moment: I am not that stupid. I take calculated risks, not ones which will ruin my already fragile credibility. If you ask Beefy187, he would even tell you that I am innocent in this matter. Just very, very bad timing is all.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Oh for the love of monkeys. I just read these accusations against me.

spoilered to keep the thread clean.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Fellows. Seriously. I know I post a lot, and it's annoying, but do read my posts. Yes, the masons had an objective to outlast the Tax Collector. But when I stated this, there was an anti-Pizzaguy backlash because I was risking the game on a pro-mason side objective. Then I go and kill the Tax Collector??? As a MAFIA???? I offered to die via a duel anyway. Please, for the love of crumbs, read my offer, accept my offer, don't waste a valuable lynch on ME when we have a pro-town role revealing the idea that he might have found one of the killers.

At least, at least, at least, AT LEAST make sure both of us are dead, not just me. Seriously. And would you, please, just once, throw poor old pizzaguy a bone known as the benefit of the doubt?

It seems, as I said earlier, no matter what I do, no matter how risky or suicidal my play, no matter how much I really stick my neck out there for the town, I always must be guilty, even though the odds of me being guilty are the same as yours. And in this game, my innocence is all but PROVEN by the fact that I fell for Sasaki's ruse; PROVEN by the fact that I revealed as a Mason when I didn't HAVE to (but panicked and did anyway), PROVEN by the fact that I protected the identity of Beefy even when it was my mission to outlast him, and PROVEN by the fact that I volunteered to die on the first round, and on this round, via a duel that I couldn't possibly win, to prove my innocence and not waste a lynch.

If you STILL think I am scum, why not show me some respect for these otherwise ballsy and brilliant scummy maneuvers? I seriously could never come up with anything this outrageous or extraordinary. And you guys always spot me so quickly if I am the mafia. If there's a doubt in your mind that I am the mafia, listen to it. The doubt is right. I'll post my full role PM, not that it matters since it can be forged.

Well I could, if I hadn't deleted it for a second time due to my inbox being full from all the mafia games I am hosting and all the communications I had between myself and my partner, who I am dying to reveal to you because I am suspicious of him. He's the only one I told Beefy's identity to, and as I told Sasaki; I no longer buy that even if I am innocent, that makes him innocent. But on the hope that I haven't been royally screwed over, and because I like to give people the benefit of the doubt until they've had a chance to explain themselves, I won't be betraying my partner and revealing him to all of you right now. Give me a day or two to determine his innocence or guilt myself, and if my suspicions go unresolved, I'll give him to you.

So, if Reenk could beg my indulgence and send that role PM a third time...

My inbox just got increased to 400, so I can keep it this time.

[Yoyoma1910]

Pizza, I have read your posts.


You played the role of a Venus fly trap quite well.

Now your objective is complete, and a man working for the settlement has died, as you desired. Maybe you didn't kill him, but perhaps your dear partner did? I don't know, but you used deceit to achieve your goal, why should you be trusted now? You say you're innocent, why? Because you've already said thoroughly you're innocent? What kind of a defense is that? Especially when you also said that someone who trusted you enough to give you their information was a target for you?

There is a saying, you know, young man:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Pizza, I have read your posts.


You played the role of a Venus fly trap quite well.

Now your objective is complete, and a man working for the settlement has died, as you desired. Maybe you didn't kill him, but perhaps your dear partner did? I don't know, but you used deceit to achieve your goal, why should you be trusted now? You say you're innocent, why? Because you've already said thoroughly you're innocent? What kind of a defense is that? Especially when you also said that someone who trusted you enough to give you their information was a target for you?

There is a saying, you know, young man:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Once again I am made into the target. No more.

I have the perfect solution to our little problem, mister Yoyoma. You seem to think I am guilty, but you failed to back it up with the actions of a townie.

Challenge: Yoyoma1910. yes, even with my miserable duel rating. I am ready to die. But I don't believe you're ready to give a townie the benefit of the doubt, nor do I believe you're willing to actually listen to what I have to say. To me, that signals a closed-minded townie at best, or a mafia at worst.

And I think you need to be lynched this round, Yoyoma1910, after my death.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Too much to read, and today is my busy day. Will look over things in greater detail later.