In my opinion the campaign AI is a step backward from MTW2. Strangely small nations and the natives in America are sending big stacks at you, while big nations tend to follow the peacemeal approach. I played Maratha on VH/VH and crushed the great Moghul empire without serious resistance. The only tense time I had when Mysore stabbed me in the back. The AI often counterattackes your forces with insufficent strength, so you can win easily by just using autoresolve. Also it never evades battles it can't win. And so far I haven't seen any sea invasions.
Here are some pics taken by other players, that tell you more about the AI then thousand words..
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