Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[Chimpyang]

My take is :

Ninjas kill during midnight - Rat hour, traitors kill before dawn but after midnight - so if a traitor is killed during midnight, he wont get a chance to do his night action?

Challenge : Louis VI the Fat
Vote : Louis VI the Fat

[Chimpyang]

Ok misread the clues I followed from Andre's write up.

Unovte: Louis VI the Fat
Vote : Tincow

Reason: "A samurai wearing full armor came near."

I believe this is a subtle clue - and since only 2 people- Louis and Tincow have a custom avatar with armour on it - on second reading I see that Louis is not full armoured an oversight given my eagerness - and I apologise for the challenge - which cannot be taken back. I believe there have been 4 before mine though.

However, given the dearth of clues gleaned from previous write ups I belive Andres is giving us a bone to sniff here. Therefore I join the vote against Tincow.

[TinCow]

Reason: "A samurai wearing full armor came near."

I believe this is a subtle clue - and since only 2 people- Louis and Tincow have a custom avatar with armour on it - on second reading I see that Louis is not full armoured an oversight given my eagerness - and I apologise for the challenge - which cannot be taken back. I believe there have been 4 before mine though.

However, given the dearth of clues gleaned from previous write ups I belive Andres is giving us a bone to sniff here. Therefore I join the vote against Tincow.

Uh... I don't even HAVE a custom avatar. As a mod, I'm required to use the rogue one.

[Chimpyang]

I meant the one of the knight in full armour - on my display it comes up between Moderator and Bureaucratically Efficient.

I mean the URL avatar, had to check my user cp for the term.

[Reenk Roink]

I am unsure how to feel about this bandwagon on TinCow. Master will tell me whether to support or oppose or be neutral.

[seireikhaan]

TinCow seems quite agitated...

[GeneralHankerchief]

Vote: khaan

Nope.

[TinCow]

I meant the one of the knight in full armour - on my display it comes up between Moderator and Bureaucratically Efficient.

I mean the URL avatar, had to check my user cp for the term.

I don't have a URL avatar either, or at least I've never uploaded one. If I had, it would be the avatar I use on every other forum on the internet:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Sasaki Kojiro]

The reason TinCow is guilty is because my gut says he is.

[LittleGrizzly]

ok a few posts that made me a little suspicious...

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=808

'khaan everyone should vote for tincow

TC asked why, never got a response, made one analytical post and then said he doesn't have a custom avatar....

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=821

'Khaan TinCow seems quite agitated

Which he didn't really...

'khaan never even voted for tincow?!

Explain yourself or die!

Vote 'khaan

The stuff above was an attack on khaan rather than a defence of TC

Although Sasaki saying his gut instinct makes me wonder... he is a good mafia hunter..

[Andres]

Wishazu replaces Warluster.

[Louis VI the Fat]

TinCow misspells 'c'est la vie'. Scummy. However, the lynch candidates YLC and TinCow do not set off my alarmbells. (By which I don't mean that I think they're innocent, or that I 'know' something, just that they don't set off my alarmbells yet)

FoS: Stephen Asen. Also, Dutch-Guy. And I am still not sure about Beskar. Either hyper-innocent or a clever mafia player.


CountArach has a good case on Shlin. Not a conclusive case. I know Shlin a bit, and he would claim a huge battlerating even when innocent.
Unlike me. Me, I'd never brag openly about the penetrating power of that huge katana dangling down from my waist, and the looks it generates from excited geishas.

Seeing as Shlin will get lynched anyway, I'll follow my FoS and
Vote: Stephen Asen


Food for thought:
If Shlin is ninja, then why were there not three (or four/ five) untrustworthy duel ratings sent in?

A) Did they not communicate about the Duel Rating reveal? That's unlikely.
B) Or, are the other ninjas testing the scale by having one of theirs send in a score, and waiting to see what happens first? This could mean the others are to be found on the list of non-PM'ers. Are they testing their luck first with Shlin?
C) Or, did the ninjas perhaps try to spread their changes? Each one sending in a score on a different scale, hoping to get it right? Like, one says: 'my rating is D', the other says 'my rating is 'veteran Samurai', the third says '78'?

If Shlin is guilty, it seems thus more likely that he is a traitor than ninja. Is the other traitor already dead, or did, again, the two traitors a) not communicate, b) test the result first, c) spread their chances?



Lots of interesting information is to be distilled from the information CA is sitting on:

a) The ninjas / traitors did not lie to CA. The battle ratings are all really close. So the mafia have no real duel advantage. With all the implications of that.
b) The ninjas / traitors did lie to CA. The battle ratings are all not close, but the mafia (minus Shlin?) knew exactly what samurai rating to send in. Did anybody share their rating with anybody? This would lead to mafia.
c) There's more too! CA is a clever man with statistics and I must leave it up to him, to work in secrecy. But you should've seen what CA managed to distill from his following countless polls during the US election! For example, already in October 2008 CA managed to predict a win for Obama!!

[Louis VI the Fat]

I apologise for the challenge - which cannot be taken back.

You know what they say, Chimpyang: a Samurai, a proud man of honour, does not for a challenge flee. When faced with adversity or possible death, honourable samurais rise up, draw swords, and face whatever may come!

I myself, however, couldn't care less about honour and shall remain hidden in a cupboard all night long...

Challenges, I think, are a waste of townies, so I shall not re-challenge to lower the chance of a duel between us. :grouphug:
To scare you off, and as a courtesy to CA, who asked for our battle ratings (PM to CA or publish them, those who haven't done so!): I am a veteran warrior with battle rating 'katana 8'.

~-~-~-~-~-~<<((o))>>~-~-~-~-~-~

Gregoshi - you are a geisha. Stop fiddling with your make-up and speak, lass. What happened last night? You 'restored order to the universe', got killed, and said you had failed?

Help us out here...

~-~-~-~-~-~<<((o))>>~-~-~-~-~-~

On another note, stop replacing people, Andres. WOG them. No one has a clue what sort of role they are and if you get them a Mafia-role for example, you are really working against the townies.

Good points. I wonder if Andres would not have considered this too. Which means that there is a fair chance the GOG'ed* players are innocent.

(Grace of God, as opposed to Wrath of God. That is, lurking players that are added midgame by the host instead of removed)

~-~-~-~-~-~<<((o))>>~-~-~-~-~-~

Admittedly i tried to lynch a dead guy but i made the effort to go out and make a half decent case

Grizzly and his lowly minion amuse me with their posts.

~-~-~-~-~-~<<((o))>>~-~-~-~-~-~

It took me two hours just to read up from yesterday. Whoa..

There must be useful information in the write-ups. But I can't spare the time now. Also, the Pevercide must have a cause, and should yield important clues. I can't figure it out yet. Must get back to it all later.

[Reenk Roink]

Unvote: YLC
Vote: shlin28

Grizzly and his lowly minion amuse me with their posts.

The French "warrior" () seems most preoccupied with our master/slave relationship. This is the third or fourth time he has referenced it and his demeanor suggests worry...

I will ask Master for counsel on the matter, but I want to point it out to the other warriors. A man who cares so much about the doings of others has good potentiality of being a ninja...

[Gregoshi]

Gregoshi - you are a geisha. Stop fiddling with your make-up and speak, lass. What happened last night? You 'restored order to the universe', got killed, and said you had failed?

Help us out here...

1) Last night someone found me merely "interesting", which hurt my feminine ego , but it hurt not nearly as much as murdering me did - and completely destroying my theory that sleeping is safe. The final insult to injury was that I didn't even get to use my hairpin.

2) Regarding "restored order to the universe": are you implying that cleaning up is "woman's work"?

3) I failed because I can no longer serve my Lord Shingen in my fullest capacity. But at least I don't need to plug my nostils anymore for the stench from the pineapple, beef bone and pizza crust. I don't miss the hornets either. Flies are still a concern though if my body is not burned/buried soon.

4) Regarding knowledge I've gained, I have nothing I wish to contribute to the discussion of guilt - yet. With time, soil and water, the humble seed blooms into a beautiful flower. I'll let the paranoia of the guilty stew on that. It is not like they can kill me again.

5) This may be the first and last time I can legitimately use froggy's emoticons, so I'm gonna use them all!

[Peasant Phill]

Finally I can vote.

vote: YLC

Why? Last night eliminated most of the pevers. This would in theory clear a fellow pever. I say eliminate the last pevers and you may eliminate a mafia member.

[glyphz]

Vote: shlin28

*A scarred veteran walks into the hall*

I am Ichimaru Yoshiko, and I will protect my Lord with my life

I AM NOT LYING TO CA! I DID NOT INFLATE MY BATTLE RATING!

Done. Vote: Abstain

A true warrior never fears death.

To Stephen Asen:

When did I state I have a low battle rating? I always said I was a veteran samurai...

Condemned one.
If you are indeed telling the truth, including the high battle rating you claimed, try to reveal as much as you (possibly) can, now. (your current defense does nothing to convince anyone of your innocence)
Perhaps all is not lost for you. Convince Lord Takeda (CountArach), and your fate might just make a turn around.
Perhaps

Besides, it would be a waste to lose a good sword arm outside of battle.

[Gregoshi]

Perhaps schlin is a Musashi-type. That would put him head and shoulders above everyone.

Relax Sasaki! It is merely a thought.

[atheotes]

Vote: shlin28

Condemned one.
If you are indeed telling the truth, including the high battle rating you claimed, try to reveal as much as you (possibly) can, now. (your current defense does nothing to convince anyone of your innocence)
Perhaps all is not lost for you. Convince Lord Takeda (CountArach), and your fate might just make a turn around.
Perhaps

Besides, it would be a waste to lose a good sword arm outside of battle.

Good piece of Advice for Shlin...

but as a true servant:
Vote: Shlin

[Louis VI the Fat]

Come on people, I've been giving clues throughout the game. I couldn't fight until just rcently, which i why I had to avoid challenges so much. Let's say that now...I've 'found' my katana.

You know what they say, Chimpyang: a Samurai, a proud man of honour, does not for a challenge flee. When faced with adversity or possible death, honourable samurais rise up, draw swords, and face whatever may come!

I myself, however, couldn't care less about honour and shall remain hidden in a cupboard all night long...

Challenges, I think, are a waste of townies, so I shall not re-challenge to lower the chance of a duel between us. :grouphug:
To scare you off, and as a courtesy to CA, who asked for our battle ratings (PM to CA or publish them, those who haven't done so!): I am a veteran warrior with battle rating 'katana 8'.

Or check CA's page, where I mentioned my 'huge' katana too, fishing for the proper response. Alas, it wasn't CA whom I needed.

Believe it or not. Hey, I seem to remember the very rules stating that CA was Shingen, which, as incredible as it sounds, wasn't so. There are more things in heaven and earth than you and I know. I guess you'll have to challenge me to find out - though I suggest townies refrain from trying.

I have spoken too much already...Must be fit for the night.

[TinCow]

Come on people, I've been giving clues throughout the game. I couldn't fight until just rcently, which i why I had to avoid challenges so much. Let's say that now...I've 'found' my katana.Or check CA's page, where I mentioned my 'huge' katana too, fishing for the proper response. Alas, it wasn't CA whom I needed.

Right.... but you're dead. Since the rules state that you can't reveal after you're dead, that means your reveal is either fake or you're breaking the rules. Either way, it's not something we should be paying attention to.

[Louis VI the Fat]

I am not dead. I have not been living either.

Furthermore, the very rules say that CA is Takeda Shingen. This is not so, eh? The rules say many things. I say that you'll notice that Andres hasn't yet, nor will, remove, or asked me to do so, any of my reveal. Which proves your argument wrong.

Why do you want people to disbelieve me...?

[Yoyoma1910]

Unlike me. Me, I'd never brag openly about the penetrating power of that huge katana dangling down from my waist, and the looks it generates from excited geishas.

Challenge: Louis VI The Fat

[TinCow]

TinCow misspells 'c'est la vie'.

[CountArach]

Lots of interesting information is to be distilled from the information CA is sitting on:

a) The ninjas / traitors did not lie to CA. The battle ratings are all really close. So the mafia have no real duel advantage. With all the implications of that.
b) The ninjas / traitors did lie to CA. The battle ratings are all not close, but the mafia (minus Shlin?) knew exactly what samurai rating to send in. Did anybody share their rating with anybody? This would lead to mafia.
c) There's more too! CA is a clever man with statistics and I must leave it up to him, to work in secrecy. But you should've seen what CA managed to distill from his following countless polls during the US election! For example, already in October 2008 CA managed to predict a win for Obama!!

I'll do some more detailed analysis that I'll post up at my earliest possible convenience (Don't hold your breath though... it's midnight now...). However, what I really need is more numbers, so:

SEND IN YOUR DUEL RATINGS IF YOU HAVEN'T

[TinCow]

My take is :

Ninjas kill during midnight - Rat hour, traitors kill before dawn but after midnight - so if a traitor is killed during midnight, he wont get a chance to do his night action?

Andres' write-ups tend to be chronological in nature, but I have never seen them be time sensitive like Reenk's were in Settlement. Andres often puts them in an order which makes sense for a storyline. Thus, if an order is submitted to kill someone who is themselves active, the kill must occur after the victim's action so that the victim's action can still take place. In most games, Andres tends to order the actions from top to bottom in the write-up, with the top-most descriptions being the ones that happened earliest in the evening. In this game, he appears to be doing the same thing with the addition of actual Japanese 'Hour' descriptions to make it easier to understand (and nicely atmospheric as well). I see no reason to suspect that this game has a time sensitive system on night orders.

[Yaropolk]

My take is :

Ninjas kill during midnight - Rat hour, traitors kill before dawn but after midnight - so if a traitor is killed during midnight, he wont get a chance to do his night action?

If your observation is true, then Olavi shouldn't have been killed at dawn, unless there is another party who gets a kill or Olavi wasnt a traitor.