Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[Louis VI the Fat]

TinCow misspells 'c'est la vie'. Scummy. However, the lynch candidates YLC and TinCow do not set off my alarmbells. (By which I don't mean that I think they're innocent, or that I 'know' something, just that they don't set off my alarmbells yet)

FoS: Stephen Asen. Also, Dutch-Guy. And I am still not sure about Beskar. Either hyper-innocent or a clever mafia player.


CountArach has a good case on Shlin. Not a conclusive case. I know Shlin a bit, and he would claim a huge battlerating even when innocent.
Unlike me. Me, I'd never brag openly about the penetrating power of that huge katana dangling down from my waist, and the looks it generates from excited geishas.

Seeing as Shlin will get lynched anyway, I'll follow my FoS and
Vote: Stephen Asen


Food for thought:
If Shlin is ninja, then why were there not three (or four/ five) untrustworthy duel ratings sent in?

A) Did they not communicate about the Duel Rating reveal? That's unlikely.
B) Or, are the other ninjas testing the scale by having one of theirs send in a score, and waiting to see what happens first? This could mean the others are to be found on the list of non-PM'ers. Are they testing their luck first with Shlin?
C) Or, did the ninjas perhaps try to spread their changes? Each one sending in a score on a different scale, hoping to get it right? Like, one says: 'my rating is D', the other says 'my rating is 'veteran Samurai', the third says '78'?

If Shlin is guilty, it seems thus more likely that he is a traitor than ninja. Is the other traitor already dead, or did, again, the two traitors a) not communicate, b) test the result first, c) spread their chances?



Lots of interesting information is to be distilled from the information CA is sitting on:

a) The ninjas / traitors did not lie to CA. The battle ratings are all really close. So the mafia have no real duel advantage. With all the implications of that.
b) The ninjas / traitors did lie to CA. The battle ratings are all not close, but the mafia (minus Shlin?) knew exactly what samurai rating to send in. Did anybody share their rating with anybody? This would lead to mafia.
c) There's more too! CA is a clever man with statistics and I must leave it up to him, to work in secrecy. But you should've seen what CA managed to distill from his following countless polls during the US election! For example, already in October 2008 CA managed to predict a win for Obama!!