Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

**Beskar** · 04-26-2009, 09:05

Night time = Snooze-ville, you have to be honest.

**KukriKhan** · 04-26-2009, 15:22

So... hunches.

Hunch #1: by now (if not from the beginning) the mafia-types know who each other are.

Hunch #2: some of the mafia-types can investigate (hence no 6-kill nights yet; 1 or 2 of them investigate, intead of killing).

Hunch #3: with 60+ players to start, mafia investigators must be able to query 2,3 or 4 names per night). I'm guessing '3', so they have a full hit list, as a group.

Hunch #4: I think townies are almost out of investigators/detectives (geisha's?).

Hunch #5: CA's non-responder list is probably a good start-point for suspected mafia.

All these hunches are probably glaringly obvious to the more experienced players, but I ain't that bright, so I thought I'd throw them out there to help me (and others) figure out our next move(s).

Do any of those 5 hunches seem wildly wrong to anyone?

If not, I think our lynch-list should start working off of CA's list of players who didn't send in battle-ratings. Those names are either guilty, or lurking (non-helpful).

**TinCow** · 04-26-2009, 15:44

Originally Posted by KukriKhan

Do any of those 5 hunches seem wildly wrong to anyone?

No, but I do think there's an even chance that #2 (mafia investigators) can simply be explained as mafioso intentionally not killing or failing to get their kills in on time. In a game this large, probability dictates that some mafioso will be new players or other such people who are more prone to being absent from the forums for a long time or missing orders for other reasons. In addition, it's a common tactic to intentionally not kill to max potential. Mafia investigators is certainly a possibility, but I think these other two options need to be considered along side it.

**KukriKhan** · 04-26-2009, 16:14

Originally Posted by TinCow

No, but I do think there's an even chance that #2 (mafia investigators) can simply be explained as mafioso intentionally not killing or failing to get their kills in on time. In a game this large, probability dictates that some mafioso will be new players or other such people who are more prone to being absent from the forums for a long time or missing orders for other reasons. In addition, it's a common tactic to intentionally not kill to max potential. Mafia investigators is certainly a possibility, but I think these other two options need to be considered along side it.

Yeah, I can see all that as explaining why we haven't had max killings yet. Are my numbers off, or do you agree that we face 6 killers (or more): 4 ninja, 2 traitors, ?? serial killer(s)?

Also: what if our detective- or doctor-types didn't get a battle-rating? That might explain some of the CA non-responders. Do you think everybody got some kind of battle-rating, to facilitate the day duels? It makes sense to me that all players would get one, because who knows who would challenge whom?

**Prince Cobra** · 04-26-2009, 17:10

Originally Posted by KukriKhan

Yeah, I can see all that as explaining why we haven't had max killings yet. Are my numbers off, or do you agree that we face 6 killers (or more): 4 ninja, 2 traitors, ?? serial killer(s)?

Also: what if our detective- or doctor-types didn't get a battle-rating? That might explain some of the CA non-responders. Do you think everybody got some kind of battle-rating, to facilitate the day duels? It makes sense to me that all players would get one, because who knows who would challenge whom?

I think there is a limit of 3 kills (look the rules) for the Ninjas. Andres, is this so?

**Caius** · 04-26-2009, 19:08

Originally Posted by Stephen Asen

I think there is a limit of 3 kills (look the rules) for the Ninjas. Andres, is this so?

The rules say that those three ninjas are able to perform 3 kills. It doesn't state if one dies then they have one less kill.

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 04-26-2009, 20:44

For 3N + 1GF, I would guess 3 kills and 1 investigation.

The first geisha died too quickly to have been researched first. They got lucky. Gregoshi was trying to play a nice balance between over-active and "I'm new," which I suspect delayed him getting whacked at first but did NOT stop them from investigating. Once known.....

That is all supposition of course, but I think it fits the facts and the kill descriptions thus far.