Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[atheotes]

Someone correct me if i am wrong...

we have 6 people alive...

if we have 2 ninjas - lets say we get the right lynch... the other ninja still gets 3 kills (including any that have challenged him)... only 2 people alive with one of them ninja = Game Over already

unless: there is a probability that we get the lynch right and also get 4 people to challenge the 2nd ninja....which case the ninja will kill 3 of them and will have to duel the last townie to determine victory....


maybe there is only one ninja left alive or Andres is just playing with us....

another point to note: last night it was only one killer at every scene - as opposed to 2 killers in a couple of the previous nights....

am i thinking straight or do i need to go get some sleep?

[Sasaki Kojiro]

On review, it seems Rhy wasn't saved by posting his role PM. That happened after the lynch. Instead, Rhy was saved by atheotes, who broke the tie and put TosaInu ahead in the votes with about 30 minutes to spare. This is the same atheotes who was killed in a duel when both duelists were 'ordered' to commit seppuku instead of fighting. Does no one find it strange that of all the duels we've had, this particular one resulted in no battle and the death of both combatants? Could it be that this is what happens when a ninja ends up in a duel?

However, neither quintus nor rhyfelwyr voted for tosa.

[Gregoshi]

Okay, I stand corrected that Rhyfelwyr wasn't the only surviving pever. I had recalled a list of pevers and remember only seeing four names on the list. my bad. However, YLC wasn't "quickly disposed of". He died in a duel two days after the pever massacre.

Regardless, after 100+ posts in this game and not one useful contribution to it, it is time my spirit moves on to a better place (News of the Weird thread) and stop wasting your time. I'll still follow the game to its end and participate in the post-mortem, but I'm spent on finding ridiculous ideas to save the town and can't see how I can "contribute" anymore to the game...unless, of course, I see an opportunity for some humour.

[atheotes]

On review, it seems Rhy wasn't saved by posting his role PM. That happened after the lynch. Instead, Rhy was saved by atheotes, who broke the tie and put TosaInu ahead in the votes with about 30 minutes to spare. This is the same atheotes who was killed in a duel when both duelists were 'ordered' to commit seppuku instead of fighting. Does no one find it strange that of all the duels we've had, this particular one resulted in no battle and the death of both combatants? Could it be that this is what happens when a ninja ends up in a duel?

Tincow, i am (was) just a samurai (not even veteran ).... the way i understood the reason for seppuku was that... Shingen had died the night before and the scroll in his hand was forged...because the scroll was not picked till he came to the courtyard in the morning... not sure if it was Andres giving extra help to the mafia or allowed in game rules as a one-time special power...

if i was ninja Andres forgot to let me know

[Dutch_guy]

Does no one find it strange that of all the duels we've had, this particular one resulted in no battle and the death of both combatants? Could it be that this is what happens when a ninja ends up in a duel?

It's more plausible that this was an event connected to the murder of Shingen, as only that particular duel after his death ended in a suicide.

[TinCow]

It's more plausible that this was an event connected to the murder of Shingen, as only that particular duel after his death ended in a suicide.

I disagree. First, the suicides can't simply be a change in the way the game works after Shingen is dead, since there have been normal duels since that time. Second, this wasn't something that was actually ordered by Shingen himself, as neither Sasaki nor CA have said anything about this, and I have not seen any evidence that either of them had any control over the duels. Perhaps if one of them had the ability to order a double suicide on a particular night I would believe it, but there is no evidence at all that that was what occurred.

So what we're left with is Andres choosing on his own to cause a double suicide at that particular moment. If both of the deaths were townies, this seems monumentally unfair against the town on a night when we also lost the person we were all supposed to be protecting. I think it is far more likely that it was a planned event that would happen when scum showed up in a duel.

[Yaropolk]

I think alive people should all challenge one person - this way at least there is a shot for a lynch and a kill. Ninja's won't be able to prevent a duel if everyone challenges one person. I haven't the slightest clue who that person should be though. Probably whoever you feel is 2nd most likely lynch target.

[Dutch_guy]

I disagree. First, the suicides can't simply be a change in the way the game works after Shingen is dead, since there have been normal duels since that time. Second, this wasn't something that was actually ordered by Shingen himself, as neither Sasaki nor CA have said anything about this, and I have not seen any evidence that either of them had any control over the duels. Perhaps if one of them had the ability to order a double suicide on a particular night I would believe it, but there is no evidence at all that that was what occurred.

So what we're left with is Andres choosing on his own to cause a double suicide at that particular moment. If both of the deaths were townies, this seems monumentally unfair against the town on a night when we also lost the person we were all supposed to be protecting. I think it is far more likely that it was a planned event that would happen when scum showed up in a duel.

For all we know there was a 'secret ability' (or call it a scripted scenario) with Shingen's role PM that orders both players in the duels to commit seppuku when their lord dies - a one time event, just like Shingen dying. This explains why it happened only once, and if CA and Sasaki were in fact aware of this then they would have been very careful with sharing the information with the town - as it gives the mafia some extra options to consider.

And you can also reverse that logic, Andres killing a ninja every time he was to challenge is also monumentally unfair - perhaps even more so as the ninja are fewer in numbers.

We'll probably get to know this for sure when the game ends, until then that's my take on the matter.

[TinCow]

I think alive people should all challenge one person - this way at least there is a shot for a lynch and a kill. Ninja's won't be able to prevent a duel if everyone challenges one person. I haven't the slightest clue who that person should be though. Probably whoever you feel is 2nd most likely lynch target.

While I am usually loathe to urge this kind of thing, there's nothing to lose by doing this. If there are 3 ninjas left, we've lost no matter what happens. If there are 2 ninjas left, we've already lost unless 1 is lynched here and the other dies during the night. If there is 1 ninja left, we've already lost unless the ninja is either lynched here or dies during the night. In none of these scenarios will refraining from dueling help with a victory. In scenarios 2 and 3, dueling can theoretically help us win.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Lynch GH and have someone with a decent score duel woad.

Rhyfelwyr can duel woad...

[Crazed Rabbit]

GH strikes me as guilty. Dueling a lot, always surviving. But without the same devil may care attitude he had in that other game with dueling (Midgard, I believe), where he was just a townie and dueled to amuse himself.

CR

[atheotes]

Someone correct me if i am wrong...

we have 6 people alive...

if we have 2 ninjas - lets say we get the right lynch... the other ninja still gets 3 kills (including any that have challenged him)... only 2 people alive with one of them ninja = Game Over already

unless: there is a probability that we get the lynch right and also get 4 people to challenge the 2nd ninja....which case the ninja will kill 3 of them and will have to duel the last townie to determine victory....


maybe there is only one ninja left alive or Andres is just playing with us....

another point to note: last night it was only one killer at every scene - as opposed to 2 killers in a couple of the previous nights....

am i thinking straight or do i need to go get some sleep?

Would anyone be kind enough to comment on this?

[atheotes]

While I am usually loathe to urge this kind of thing, there's nothing to lose by doing this. If there are 3 ninjas left, we've lost no matter what happens. If there are 2 ninjas left, we've already lost unless 1 is lynched here and the other dies during the night. If there is 1 ninja left, we've already lost unless the ninja is either lynched here or dies during the night. In none of these scenarios will refraining from dueling help with a victory. In scenarios 2 and 3, dueling can theoretically help us win.

at you scenarios # 2 & 3
how can the ninja die in the night? are you implying that there is a traitor still alive?

[GeneralHankerchief]

An explanation for my activity jump is the fact that I am now on my 2-3 week vacation between school and when I start my tolltaking job. I left school on Tuesday and probably started increasing activity Wednesday - if you go back, I'm sure you'll find a correlation. To prove I'm not lying, here are some varied scattered comments I've made on this forum relating to my activity. I have included links along with them to prove that they have not been retroactively edited.

Sorry guys, been out all day and now I don't have enough energy to do anything aside from dropping. I'll work on this tomorrow.

(April 25th, the 3rd-ish round of this game)

The Turn 2 writeup will be up in a few minutes. However, my internet, especially images, have been spotty all day and as a result I probably won't have the map done by then. I'll let you guys know when I finally do upload it.

April 26th, spotty internet.

As a heads-up, there's only one simulation left to do for this round - however, I have two finals tomorrow, so the next turn report may not be finished until tomorrow afternoon my time. Thank you for your patience.

April 29th. That's a lot of time spent studying and actually taking the finals.

I'll be sending the feedback PMs in a few hours. In short, exams suck.

April 30th. I still had two or three finals to go at this point.

Battle replay received. I'll go over it sometime in the next couple of days (moving out of the dorms tomorrow, so we'll see what happens).

May 4-5th. The next day, I moved out. I had two finals on the 4th as well as an obligation to pack.

Finished my fifth and last final Monday night. Home now and it feels great.

Here I said that I was home (May 5-6th).

As you can see, this is probably the first time in a while where I haven't had too much on my plate, thus corresponding with an uptick in my activity.

I'll be out the next couple of hours. Hopefully when I come back, we'll have made progress.

[TinCow]

at you scenarios # 2 & 3
how can the ninja die in the night? are you implying that there is a traitor still alive?

Duels occur during the night phase write-up. The point is that in 2 & 3, we lose if we get to another lynch round. I see no possible way for us to ever get another lynch round after this one. This is our last shot right here.

The only way to make it to another lynch round is if fewer than 3 people are murdered tonight. Since that has never happened before and the killers have no reason at all to drop a kill, I think such a scenario is a pipe-dream not even worth considering.

[GeneralHankerchief]

One thing to note before I leave is that out of all of the alive players, Ichigo is the only one who has not voted. Oftentimes in the endgame scenario, mafiosi will not reveal their hand until very late. Also, he is one of two of us that don't have any votes (the other being Kage). If he makes a late move... we're screwed.

[atheotes]

Duels occur during the night phase write-up. The point is that in 2 & 3, we lose if we get to another lynch round. I see no possible way for us to ever get another lynch round after this one. This is our last shot right here.

The only way to make it to another lynch round is if fewer than 3 people are murdered tonight. Since that has never happened before and the killers have no reason at all to drop a kill, I think such a scenario is a pipe-dream not even worth considering.

Duels happen in the morning (not morning phase but the after night kills are done) after the night killings are done... so if we have a ninja alive during the night he can kill all three of his challengers... leaving the ninja to duel the one remaining townie... that is we identify who the ninja is...

either way our only chance is to come up with the most suspicious player and lynch him...
the second most suspicious should be challenged by the remaining 4 players... and then we just hope that we got it right.

My money is on GH being ninja master. My reasoning is same as Gregoshi's....I always thought Sasaki had an important role and actually thought he was the ninja master and made a post saying Andres might have given important roles to known players and since Sasaki was protected he could be ninja master....

[Csargo]

One thing to note before I leave is that out of all of the alive players, Ichigo is the only one who has not voted. Oftentimes in the endgame scenario, mafiosi will not reveal their hand until very late. Also, he is one of two of us that don't have any votes (the other being Kage). If he makes a late move... we're screwed.

I've been asleep.

Vote:GH

Honestly, since I've been having trouble rereading the thread, I'm gonna go back and read through the whole thread and see if I notice something else. Right now GH is the best lynch I can think of.

[TinCow]

Duels happen in the morning (not morning phase but the after night kills are done) after the night killings are done... so if we have a ninja alive during the night he can kill all three of his challengers... leaving the ninja to duel the one remaining townie... that is we identify who the ninja is...

Good point, so we'd need to have 4+ people all challenge the same person.

[atheotes]

Good point, so we'd need to have 4+ people all challenge the same person.

unfortunately... there seems to be no co-ordination between the people who are alive...i think we are about 2 hrs from deadline and the ghosts are more active than the alive townies...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

[atheotes]

Current tally:

GeneralHankerchief: Ichigo, Kagemusha
Rhyfelwyr: GeneralHankerchief
woad&fangs: Rhyfelwyr, Yoyoma1910
Yoyoma1910: woad&fangs

toss up between GH and Woad.... No challenges

[Gregoshi]

...i think we are about 2 hrs from deadline and the ghosts are more active than the alive townies...

You haven't lived until you die. If that ain't a country song, it should be.

[Yaropolk]

You haven't lived until you die. If that ain't a country song, it should be.

Too late:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xSGLZd9Vg4

[Kagemusha]

I would leave the situation as it is. Maybe Ichi who seems to have a high duel score should challenge Rhywelfyr.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Unvote: Rhyf
Vote: woad

Sorry, but I don't want to leave this up to chance.

Challenge: Rhyf

[Andres]

Voting concluded. Stand by for execution.

[Dutch_guy]

Talk about a last minute vote change (again, I might add), how suspicious.

Sure hope the town made the right choice tonight...

[woad&fangs]

unvote: Yoyoma; vote: Rhyfelwyr

3 way tie. I will challenge anyone the town directs me to. I am a young samurai.

I have defended GH on several occasions. I have no reason for this other than the fact I believe him to be innocent.

edit: It looks like I took too long to think of changing my vote. I hope the town gets another chance tomorrow because you got the wrong guy.

[atheotes]

Unvote: Rhyf
Vote: woad

Sorry, but I don't want to leave this up to chance.

Challenge: Rhyf

Hmm... Interesting...changing votes to save yourself 3 minutes before deadline... nobody can do anything about your scummy behavior though....