I doubt it, i battered that UP fleet to death before my last ship went down. There is no way the 4 ships they have left have more guns than the full stack British fleet sitting in port.

I would also add that the UP are doing something i've never seen before except when i played as them - Expanding in Europe. They've taken Rhineland and the single-state German province underneath it, whose name i forget. They're at war with France, Spain, Britain, Denmark, Hannover, Prussia, and myself.