A Problem of Shrinkage

**Askthepizzaguy** · 05-26-2009, 04:42

I'm not laughing at you, Xiahou... I'm laughing at myself. It's like I am your twin from an evil parallel universe or something. I find myself appreciating Colin Powell and his defiant stance against the Cheney wing of the Republican Party... he's practically the only Republican I support at this point.

You probably mentioned somewhere before what your opinion of the previous administration was. Who among the current party leadership do you like? I'm wondering if we are really the exact opposite or not. And if so... it still puzzles me. Surely there is some kind of common ground, or set of basic principles we all agree on. But again and again I find that some people really do see the world from a totally different perspective and it changes almost everything.

**Beskar** · 05-26-2009, 16:57

I was reading the title "A Problem of Shrinkage" and at first thought, I thought it was about the over-medication of Ritalin and propagation of disorders through dodgy dealing in psychiatry.

**Lemur** · 06-12-2009, 18:40

Big, number-filled article about shrinkage (not the kind in your swim trunks, you perverts): The Ice Age Cometh

I've made a career out of counting votes, and the numbers tell a clear story; the demographics of America are changing in a way that is deadly for the Republican Party as it exists today. A GOP ice age is on the way.

Demographic change is irritating to politicos, since it works on elections much as rigged dice do on a Las Vegas craps table: it is a game changer. For years, Republicans won elections because the country was chock-full of white middle-class voters who mostly pulled the GOP lever on Election Day. Today, however, that formula is no longer enough.

It was a huge shock to the GOP when Barack Obama won Republican Indiana last year. The bigger news was how he did it. Latino voters delivered the state. Exit polls showed that they provided Obama with a margin of more than 58,000 votes in a state he carried by a slim 26,000 votes. That's right, GOP, you've entered a brave new world ruled by Latino Hoosiers, and you're losing.

In 1980, Latino voters cast about 2% of all votes. Last year it was 9%, and Obama won that Hispanic vote with a crushing 35-point margin. By 2030, the Latino share of the vote is likely to double. In Texas, the crucial buckle for the GOP's Electoral College belt, the No. 1 name for new male babies — many of whom will vote one day — is Jose. Young voters are another huge GOP problem. Obama won voters under 30 by a record 33 points. And the young voters of today, while certainly capable of changing their minds, do become all voters tomorrow.

**Strike For The South** · 06-12-2009, 22:02

Jose has been the #1 name since '97.

As Bush showed the right white man can still capture the "hispanic" vote. Not to mention many hispanics are social conservatives esp. in South Texas. People seem to think Hispanic=black and that's not really the case. Considering most of these articles are written by old white men whose connection with mexicans stem from there front yard it really does not surprise me.

**Xiahou** · 06-12-2009, 22:28

I hate identity politics. It's all about- how can we pander to latinos or how can we pander to blacks, ect... as though each entire race has a hive mind and is in lockstep on the issues. I think that's so much of what is wrong with politics today....

Ah well, not like it's gonna change...

**ICantSpellDawg** · 06-13-2009, 00:13

Republicans are the natural party of the current general Hispanic consensus. I like hispanics. I don't see them any differently from Italians, other than they tend to be more humble. Soon enough hispanics will stop being our modern day "Eyrish, Eyetalians" and we can get back into the process of adding them to Republican ranks.

Current Republican demographics? No. Demographics of tomorrow? Yep.

Identity politics are important. How else can 1 man or woman cater to whole massive segments of the population? The reality is that people tend to be attracted to those who remind them of themselves. When you can find a common denominator with Charisma, you've got the key to the castle. Obama is literally THE Identity politico and I think that is good. Would you want someone representing you who had absolutely no idea where you came from?

**Lemur** · 06-13-2009, 21:28

Originally Posted by Xiahou

I hate identity politics. It's all about- how can we pander to latinos or how can we pander to blacks, ect... as though each entire race has a hive mind and is in lockstep on the issues. I think that's so much of what is wrong with politics today....

But don't you, yourself, based on your age, race and location, vote exactly how identity politics indicate you would? I think your lament is a little naive.

Another article about the (entirely unproved) demographic doom of the GOP:

For the past few months, political analysts and demographers have been poring over the results of the 2008 election and comparing them with presidential results from the last two decades. From whatever angle of their approach -- age, race, economic status, geography -- they have come to a remarkably similar conclusion. Almost all indicators are pressing the Republicans into minority status.

Republicans are still capable of winning individual elections, but until they find a way to reverse or at least minimize these broader changes in the country, their chances of returning to majority status will be severely reduced.

Lots of detail in the article itself.

**CountArach** · 06-14-2009, 01:55

Originally Posted by Xiahou

I hate identity politics. It's all about- how can we pander to latinos or how can we pander to blacks, ect... as though each entire race has a hive mind and is in lockstep on the issues. I think that's so much of what is wrong with politics today....

Ah well, not like it's gonna change...

On the other hand identity politics allows those with a shared race, class, gender, etc to band together and demand rights that they believe are theirs. That they believe they need. Identity politics is only natural and has been the norm since the birth of democracy (That is to say a democracy with an expanded suffrage, not the faux-democracy of the 18th and 19th centuries).

Further, as Lemur said, your own views on politics are to a large extent determined by your situation; by your social consciousness. It is simply that, as a member of the ruling class/race/gender, it is natural for you to also look down on identity politics because it is counter to your interests.

**Xiahou** · 06-14-2009, 02:54

Originally Posted by CountArach

Further, as Lemur said, your own views on politics are to a large extent determined by your situation; by your social consciousness. It is simply that, as a member of the ruling class/race/gender, it is natural for you to also look down on identity politics because it is counter to your interests.

It's amazing that you and Lemur have such insight into my life- you two must be psychic. What ruling class am I a member of exactly?

And Lemur, you know my political views and say I fit into the demographic that represents those views- tell me about who I am then. You should have no trouble detailing what ethno-social stereotypes I fit into since you know my political views.