A Problem of Shrinkage

[CountArach]

Republicans won the Governorship of New Jersey. That's New Jersey, right next to New York. That's with Pro-Life views and being a supporter of George Bush for 8 years.

That was Corzine's personal fault

But Obama was the least of Corzine's problems: Voters in Tuesday's election approved of Obama's performance 57 percent to 43 percent, according to exit polling. It was Corzine they didn't like; 27 percent of the voters who approved of Obama nevertheless found someone other than the Democratic incumbent to vote for.

Corzine, for his part, ran a polarizing campaign; every time Christie's name appeared in one of his commercials, it came with a scarlet (R) -- for Republican -- attached. Republicans are not popular in New Jersey, but local issues drove the race.

Whereas three-quarters of Corzine's voters cited a national issue -- health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for him, two-thirds of Christie's picked a local one (property taxes and corruption).

[ICantSpellDawg]

That was Corzine's personal fault

But Obama was the least of Corzine's problems: Voters in Tuesday's election approved of Obama's performance 57 percent to 43 percent, according to exit polling. It was Corzine they didn't like; 27 percent of the voters who approved of Obama nevertheless found someone other than the Democratic incumbent to vote for.

Corzine, for his part, ran a polarizing campaign; every time Christie's name appeared in one of his commercials, it came with a scarlet (R) -- for Republican -- attached. Republicans are not popular in New Jersey, but local issues drove the race.

Whereas three-quarters of Corzine's voters cited a national issue -- health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for him, two-thirds of Christie's picked a local one (property taxes and corruption).

So you expect Democrats to win or lose seats at the mid-terms?

[CountArach]

So you expect Democrats to win or lose seats at the mid-terms?

Lose maybe 10-20 in the house and two or three senate seats, mostly because I think that Bush has inflated the Democrat's majority to an unrealistic extent. However, that is based on the assumption that only a weak healthcare reform bill is passed, as opposed to the much more progressive option. If a more progressive one is passed I would say that it is much harder to call. The public option is much more popular than many would have us believe, but if it is passed that will really annoy a lot of Conservatives and is likely to get health insurance lobbyists investing even more money into the Republican funds. So that would be a harder election to call, though I would tend to think the result would be a bit better for the Democrats.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Voter turnout for obama really helped the dems in congress.

[CountArach]

Voter turnout for obama really helped the dems in congress.

That too, which will make 2012 a really interesting election.

[Vladimir]

That too, which will make 2012 a really interesting election.

I suspect it won't matter as we'll all be scurrying for cover.

[Lemur]

I find this poll and analysis very encouraging.

For all the anger felt by Republicans, they are not a very radical group of people. They divide 50-50 on whether they wish to see religion exercise more influence in American life than it does today. Only one-fifth of Republicans think abortion should be illegal in all cases. The party still holds a substantial pro-choice minority: 35% think abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Half of the Republicans and Republican leaners surveyed said they “never” listen to Rush Limbaugh – more than say they never listen to MSNBC.

[Lemur]

So you expect Democrats to win or lose seats at the mid-terms?

It would be exceptional for the party in power not to lose seats in a mid-term election. Without some sort of extraordinary circumstances, I'd say it would be impossible.

The salient question would be how many, and in which regions.

[ICantSpellDawg]

It would be exceptional for the party in power not to lose seats in a mid-term election. Without some sort of extraordinary circumstances, I'd say it would be impossible.

The salient question would be how many, and in which regions.

Well unless they are losing them and the position is phasing out, it seems likely that they will be replaced by Republicans.

That would suggest that Republicans are not shrinking in office and are in fact growing. The past few years are allowing us to reflect, realize that we DO need to target non-whites and make sure that those people that we target are family oriented and believe that the government in principle should be the last one we go to to solve our problems.

That's all. Its simple really. The GOP isn't a White party - they used to consist entirely of White protestants. Now, the majority of Catholics are Republicans (although the lead is small). Clearly we evolve and grow and arn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Our growth in this country comes from pro-family immigrants who tend to be religious. The bulk of our population is ageing without replacement levels of reproduction. The GOP has traditionally had a pretty easy time of getting the votes of religious pro-family and elderly (40 - 80) voters.

Marc Rubio is a rising star, I hope to see more legislators and Governors like him in the GOP, and by that I mean Hispanics and others who wouldn't have fit in 10 years ago.

The answer is to get Republicans like Mitt Romney and Chris Christie elected throughout the Northeast, mid-west and Cali. They need to be Pro-life but not push the issue much. They need to be Pro-business and push that hard.