Read some disturbing articles about the GOP today. First there is a report that the percentage of Americans who self-identify as Republicans has shrunk to 21 percent, the lowest it's been in a quarter-century. From the article: "In that same poll, 35 percent self-identified as Democrats and 38 percent called them Independents." That means that Indies outnumber Repubs by almost two to one.
Then I read about how the base of the GOP is getting more ideological and angry, rather than less, in the face of defeats.
But outside Washington, the reality is very different. Rank-and-file Republicans remain, by all indications, staunchly conservative, and they appear to have no desire to moderate their views. GOP activists and operatives say they hear intense anger at the White House and at the party’s own leaders on familiar issues – taxes, homosexuality, and immigration. Within the party, conservative groups have grown stronger absent the emergence of any organized moderate faction.
There is little appetite for compromise on what many see as core issues, and the road to the presidential nomination lies – as always – through a series of states where the conservative base holds sway, and where the anger appears to be, if anything, particularly intense.
In other words, the Republican base may be getting smaller, older, whiter and angrier. And any politico who hopes to run the gauntlet for the party's nomination to any office is going to have to please this crew, which increases the likelihood that unelectable people will be given the nod.
Seems to me that the only hope for the Repubs to regroup and recoup is for the Dems to make a series of grievous mistakes. And while I have supreme faith in the Democrats' ability to lose a winning hand, I don't see President 44 as a typical Dem in this respect. That means we may face four to eight years of continuing Republican decline.
This would be a Bad Thing. We cannot become a one-party nation. If the Republicans are going the way of the Whigs and the Federalists, we might face a serious political vacuum. Assuming the Dems haven't messed up so badly as to revive the Republicans' fortunes, given the lack of a healthy opposition, they'll certainly get fat and stupid as quickly as possible. I don't want to see the U.S.A. facing the sort of single-party complacency that the Japanese had under the LDP for decades.
What do Orgahs think? Obviously, rumors of the Decline and Fall of the House Ron Built are premature. The Dems have not been given a proper chance to foul their own nest yet, and that's what usually brings balance to the equation. But what if they don't, at least not in time for the Repubs?
I've heard several Republican Orgahs argue that ideological purity and adherence to conservative principle is the way forward, and that "moderate" candidates get them nowhere. Problems that I see with this logic:
(1) America is a moderate nation. It's the rare and exceptional politician who rouses the rabble to move in any direction at all. (Reagan springs to mind, as does Obama.) Ideologically pure Republicans don't sell well in the national setting. I expect Sarah Palin to become the Jesse Jackson, Jr. of the Republicans for this very reason. (In other words, an unelectable pariah whom nobody within the party dare criticize.)
(2) The quest for ideological purity is not compatible with building a national coalition. One of the strengths of the Dems is that they have no principles or ideology. Oh, it suits some people in campaign mode to yammer about this Dem or that being a "socialist" or an "extreme leftist," but the truth of the matter is that there is no ideological underpinning for the Democratic Party in the same way that modern conservatism serves the Republican Party. This accounts for the Dems' weakness as well as their resilience. Weakness because they have no overarching agenda, resilience because they can accept anyone into their coalition at no cost. Wanna be a pro-gun Dem? Fine, sign up. Wanna be a pro-life Dem? Sign up.
Republicans, on the other hand, have any number of litmus tests to determine if a politician is or isn't a RINO. Thus in the Repub world, heresy is common, damnable and results in expulsion. This accounts for the Repubs' discipline and shrinkage problem. Discipline because their members know that they must toe the line or be basted by any number of ideological organs, including various think tanks and talk radio gurus, not to mention party leadership. Shrinkage problem because an exclusive church which expels the heretics must also be engaged in conversion if it wants to grow. And at the moment, I don't see any evidence that the Repubs are engaged in any serious attempt at conversion. The polling among the thirty-and-younger crowd is eye-popping.
Really, I suppose this is a two-part question: How can/should the Republicans turn around their shrinkage problem? And what will the consequences be if America becomes a de facto one-party state?
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