Iranian Elections

[Hax]

Things are going rough; Mehdi Karroubi (the other reformist guy), Mousavi have been placed under house arrest and the brother and sister-in-law of former president Mohammed Khatami have been arrested.

[CountArach]

Things are going rough; Mehdi Karroubi (the other reformist guy), Mousavi have been placed under house arrest and the brother and sister-in-law of former president Mohammed Khatami have been arrested.

Wow, this spiralled down pretty damn quickly.

[Lemur]

Further analysis:

On the basis of what we know so far, here is the sequence of events starting on the afternoon of election day, Friday, June 12.

• Near closing time of the polls, mobile text messaging was turned off nationwide
• Security forces poured out into the streets in large numbers
• The Ministry of Interior (election headquarters) was surrounded by concrete barriers and armed men
• National television began broadcasting pre-recorded messages calling for everyone to unite behind the winner
• The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull them into complacency
• But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad
• Unlike previous elections, there was no breakdown of the vote by province, which would have provided a way of judging its credibility
• The voting patterns announced by the government were identical in all parts of the country, an impossibility (also see the comments of Juan Cole at the title link)
• Less than 24 hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene`i publicly announced his congratulations to the winner, apparently confirming that the process was complete and irrevocable, contrary to constitutional requirements
• Shortly thereafter, all mobile phones, Facebook, and other social networks were blocked, as well as major foreign news sources.

All of this had the appearance of a well orchestrated strike intended to take its opponents by surprise – the classic definition of a coup. Curiously, this was not a coup of an outside group against the ruling elite; it was a coup of the ruling elite against its own people.

Good video here.

[Marshal Murat]

So is it a good thing that Iraq is rebuilding instead of trying to invade Iran?

On a personal note: My Iranian friend's parents are seriously pissed about the election and everything.

[seireikhaan]

How disappointing. I was really hoping that such an inflammatory figure as Achmadinijad would be allowed to be defeated if such was the will of the people. Clearly, the Supreme Leader had other plans.

[KarlXII]

The simple fact that Mousavi got 33% of Iranian support is an achievement in itself. President Ahmed. has to be worried. This election cycle, it's 33%, next elections, he may not be so lucky.

Therefore, I find that the Pres has 2 options,

1. Liberalise Iran to keep the ever growing reformist populace happy, and face growing rejection by the powerful clerics, or
2. Keep up the anti-Western, authoritarian rhetoric, push more Iranians to the reformists, and face a possible Green Revolution.

Not surprisingly, a number of reformists have been imprisoned, exiled or killed. However, it is clear the reformists still believe highly in their ideals. I support them to the fullest extent, and hope that this potential "Green Revolution" sweeps Ahmed. out of power.

[Beskar]

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.co...ier-posts.html

Yes, the president of Iran's own election monitoring commission has declared the result invalid and called for a do-over. That is huge news: when a regime's own electoral monitors beak ranks, what chance does the regime have of persuading anyone in the world or Iran that it has democratic legitimacy? Second:
Stratfor is reporting that Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, head of the Expediency Council, has resigned. Though unconfirmed, the report is saying that Rafsanjani is resigning from his position as head of the Expediencey Council, NOT his position as the leader of the Assembly of Experts, which has oversight responsibility over the office of the Supreme Leader and would be responsible for naming Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor.

Looks like a 2nd Revolution of Iranian might be halted for the Great Reform.