Korean sword-rattling

**edyzmedieval** · 05-25-2010, 17:54

Or more likely, military show off. Or how to impress and raise tensions so that everyone can look at us.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100525/...rea_ship_sinks

Honestly, it's about time they do that. I was expecting this whole tension to escalate sooner or later and this is exactly what I "predicted". What's everyone's take on this?
Will it eventually escalate in a war? I highly doubt it, apart from some skirmishes. If it does, US will go with S Korea, China with N Korea, and then we have World War III.

But let's not get so apocalyptic. Will it escalate in a war? Discuss.

**al Roumi** · 05-25-2010, 18:09

This is hardly the time for the US to roll up its sleeves... and China is just starting its international expansion, not the right moment for them to get involved either -their economy would tank if they went to war with the 'states. Anyway, I think Beijing probably has more in common with Seoul than with Pyongyang nowadays...

I imagine there will be little more than frosty relations -Seoul's hands are probably tied by it's allies.

edit:

Unless Pyongyang was probing for this kind of weakness in Seoul's allies and chooses now to attack. But then the US (and others) would be forced to react in support of Seoul somehow anyway.

**Furunculus** · 05-25-2010, 18:11

china has nothing to gain by starting WW3 over the hermit kingdom.

**gaelic cowboy** · 05-25-2010, 18:19

Originally Posted by Furunculus

china has nothing to gain by starting WW3 over the hermit kingdom.

Agreed China does not want war but it will try it's best to prevent the North collapsing into one due to stupidity on the North's part it would not like to have a border with South that ended up getting the Norths nukes.

It has been speculated recently that cliques are positioning themselves in the party for the day Kim pushes off this mortal coil it could have been an act of aggression done out of a need to project strength to the Party.

**tibilicus** · 05-25-2010, 18:27

Nothing ever happens in these situations. It will all blow over in a week. At least from an international perspective.

**gaelic cowboy** · 05-25-2010, 18:43

Originally Posted by tibilicus

Nothing ever happens in these situations. It will all blow over in a week. At least from an international perspective.

The North just seems to be continually needling for attention upping the stakes so it can be seen to have a good hand at the table. I predict a freeze on relations and some round-table talks where China pledges aid in return for who knows what.

**Furunculus** · 05-25-2010, 18:42

most of NK's nuclear facilities are in the north, my guess is that if war kicks off then china will swiftly launch a 'humanitarian' intervention into the north of the country.

**Skullheadhq** · 05-25-2010, 19:05

Originally Posted by Furunculus

china has nothing to gain by starting WW3 over the hermit kingdom.

Expeditionary force? Much like the Division Azul, but then bigger, I think. That way China helps N-Korea but stays neutral if war will break out.

**seireikhaan** · 05-25-2010, 20:12

My feeling is that NK is to China what that old "friend" from high school who was kinda cool back in the day, but hasn't kicked all those bad, high school habits now that he's in his 40's. After a while, for its own good, China's going to terminate the relationship. The CCP has matured considerably since the 50's. NK has, if anything, regressed. When China intervened in the Korean war, the two bore strong philosophical similarities. The simple truth of the matter is that no longer exists. I tend to agree with Furunculus- if China is to interfere in an out and out war between SK and NK, its going to be on a "humanitarian" mission to ensure that it gets a piece of the pie, in some way, when SK emerges with total victory.

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 05-25-2010, 22:26

Originally Posted by Yaseikhaan

My feeling is that NK is to China what that old "friend" from high school who was kinda cool back in the day, but hasn't kicked all those bad, high school habits now that he's in his 40's. After a while, for its own good, China's going to terminate the relationship. The CCP has matured considerably since the 50's. NK has, if anything, regressed. When China intervened in the Korean war, the two bore strong philosophical similarities. The simple truth of the matter is that no longer exists. I tend to agree with Furunculus- if China is to interfere in an out and out war between SK and NK, its going to be on a "humanitarian" mission to ensure that it gets a piece of the pie, in some way, when SK emerges with total victory.

I'm in considerable agreement with this.

I too think this will blow over. It only escalates past a staring contest if NK pulls the trigger. If NK does so, they have about a week to cripple/take SK out of things. Any longer and USA reinforcements start to arrive in bulk and will settle the hash of anyone the ROK soldiers cannot handle.

This time, we'll have a little sub rosa chat with China first and find out where "the line" is (in 1950 we didn't know). North of that, Chinese volunteers will "establish order in the interests of regional stability."

**gaelic cowboy** · 05-25-2010, 18:10

No it wont turn hot in my opinion the south is in an awkward position it risks severe damage to it's capitol and industry and for what in return will they recieve after they win which they would.

China is also in a dodgy position it does not want to abandon it's ally but it is growing impatient with N Korea.

Most of this sabre rattling is probably linked to instability in the leadership as people position themselves in the party for the eventual demise of Kim and the apponitment of a new leader later on.