They are all entirely Random, the test and proof of this is perfectly simple.
1) As soon as you get a DOW, reload the game from the Autosave taken just before you ended the last turn.
2) Re-run the end of turn.
If the DOW is based upon logic and the diplomatic/geopolitical situation at the end of that turn then nothing has changed and the same faction will DOW you every turn. If it doesn't, and never bothers you again then clearly it was a completely random event.
@Ordani: No they are NOT reproducible from saves thats the whole point. Nor is the selection of the opponent based on any evaluation of its likely success, or even abilty, to persecute a war against you, it is totally random.
It makes no difference what difficulty level you are on. At the moment I am trying a campaign on Easy Difficulty to test whether the frequency of the Random DOW events is lower at easier settings. The frequency is certainly lower on Easy since the patch, but the DOW's that do occur are still random.
I've also been told that the Random DOW's can be avoided provided as a faction you remain at war with a minimum number of AI controlled factions. I haven't tested this but assuming that the Random DOW's are triggerred by the 'Player Hate Routine' it would make logical sense to assume that if as a player you are already seen by the AI to be at war with several factions it might be programmed not to trigger any further wars.
The test for this will be to start a new campaign using a faction that has no colonial aspirations (e.g. Prussia/Austria) and to immdeiately declare war on all the Native American Factions and possibily the Indian factions that can't possibly interfere with your European goals. If as a result the 'Player Hate Routine' leaves you alone then that would prove the theory, that Random DOW's are only triggered to keep the player faction in a permanent state of conflict.
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