It depends on what campaign difficulty level you're playing. On VH campaign difficulty, the AI gets considerably more move points than the player. Given that, playing on VH difficulty, I still can out-run the AI most of the time. However, there are times when I'm not that lucky.
The key (with a weak fleet) is to place your fleet so, that the threatening AI fleet has to expend most of its move points to get to it in the first attack. Once your fleet retreats from the first attack, the AI will not have sufficient points to carry out the second strike. On the other hand, if you place your fleet close to the AI, it is very likely to strike you twice, if you retreat.
Of course, there is never a guarantee, there is no 'third' fleet lurking somewhere close to where your fleeing ships will end up after retreating...
Another technique (I use this if I need to transport troops, but I do not have a strong fleet to escort) is to surround (at a distance) the cargo ship you want to protect by 3-4 cheap single ships (like light galleys). If the AI strikes, it will strike one of the outer ships first. You can make that ship retreat from the battle and let it run wherever (that's why it was a cheap ship). From that point, 1) AI can pursue your fleeing fleet; which is fine since you'll have protected your precious cargo in the middle; 2) AI can attack the cargo ship.
If #2 happens, you can retreat with the cargo ship, and the AI will be unlikely to have sufficient move points to pursue you since each attack takes out substantial chunk of the move points (on top of what would be spent to cover the distance).
It is a very boring technique though. If you use this, make sure you set the clock to the minimum timer (0.5 hour I think).
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