Have the same problem on my Ottoman campaign, though a few years later, 1788 winter I think. Just crashes after the AI has done all of it's moves. Don't think it's a corrupt save game as I can play through the last few turns without problem only for it to always crash at the same point in turn 176. All unmodded ofc. I've tried just about everything, from minimum graphics settings to stopping any training/research to disbanding fleets, nothing works. Obviously isn't of much help to you, but you're not the only one having it.
I contacted Sega support for it, and they gave me this reply:
Which was the reply I kinda expected, so I'm just benching the campaign until the next patch and hoping it gets sorted.The development team are aware of some issues that are causing
Empire: Total War to crash and hang and some points within the
game. The are working to bring out a new update to rectify
these issues, Please keep an eye on the official forum for
future updates.
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