The future of the Arab world

[Banquo's Ghost]

We have had many a discussion (including currently) about the future of Israel and what she needs to consider to secure a peaceful path, but we rarely concentrate on the Arab world - except for rather tiresome stereotypes fitting whichever position we take.

The renowned Arabist and journalist Robert Fisk has written a piercing piece on the mediaevalist swamp in which many Arab countries dwell. Though one might argue that mediaeval Islam was somewhat more advanced than our current experience, the point of backwardness is well made.

Will a solution to the Arab-Israeli war resolve all this? Some of it, perhaps. Without the constant challenge of crisis, it would be much more difficult to constantly renew emergency laws, to avoid constitutionality, to distract populations who might otherwise demand overwhelming political change. Yet I sometimes fear that the problems have sunk too deep, that like a persistently leaking sewer, the ground beneath Arab feet has become too saturated to build on.

I was delighted some months ago, while speaking at Cairo University – yes, the same academy which Barack Obama used to play softball with the Muslim world – to find how bright its students were, how many female students crowded the classes and how, compared to previous visits, well-educated they were. Yet far too many wanted to move to the West. The Koran may be an invaluable document – but so is a Green Card. And who can blame them when Cairo is awash with PhD engineering graduates who have to drive taxis?

The issue is what to do about it. As one who favours a policy of avoiding foreign entanglements, I believe that Fisk's suggestion of disengagement is valid. But then there are many economic interests that drive the West's entanglements - not least the siren call of oil that seduces us to imperialism and partnerships with the Devil.

Thoughts?

[Hooahguy]

im sort of confused on what to discuss.
if were discussing on how arabs should try to work for peace, i think its very possible.
the article says that educated arabs are moving west instead of trying to fix the problems at home, if im understanding it correctly.

[Sarmatian]

Interesting article.

I find the solution is in the last paragraph -

But I also think that, militarily, we have got to abandon the Middle East. By all means, send the Arabs our teachers, our economists, our agronomists. But bring our soldiers home. They do not defend us. They spread the same chaos that breeds the injustice upon which the al-Qa'idas of this world feed. No, the Arabs – or, outside the Arab world, the Iranians or the Afghans – will not produce the eco-loving, gender-equal, happy-clappy democracies that we would like to see. But freed from "our" tutelage, they might develop their societies to the advantage of the people who live in them. Maybe the Arabs would even come to believe that they owned their own countries.

Leave them be, allow them to control their natural resources and their destinies, don't hold guns pointed at them. Send them help instead.

[Samurai Waki]

assimilate them at any cost!!

[Pannonian]

Buy their oil. Otherwise, keep well clear.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

What he calls medievalism I've been calling warlordism. It's hard to escape because it is the natural human condition -- Western Society is the abberation. It is far more logical and understandable to have a big mean powerful leader keep all the bad guys away while you and the wife get down to getting down and feeding the get that results. This tough guy gets rewarded with the leadership and a whole load of special privileges for keeping the boogeyman away. We can view this as a triumph of personal loyalties over loyalties to abstract ideas. Remember, abstract principles never fed anybody. Tribe/Clan/Village culture is all based on this and this has been the norm for most of humanity for most of the last 7 millenia.

To progress past this, if progression it be, requires boot-strapping. It is not possible to direct your culture forward like you do in ETW, such change must be organic.* When the various arab cultures decide that enough is enough, they will establish a new norm. Nobody can do it for them, nor help save at the margins.

* How many therapists does it take to change a lightbulb? Answer: One, but the lightbulb has to really WANT to change.

[Vladimir]

Oh my, Banquo. If the Arab-Israeli conflict isn’t deep enough for you then what’s worse? The history of Arab culture!

I’ll comment quickly then read the article. Initially I agree with your statement. Arab culture has pre-Arabic roots. They inhabit an area that has seen countless migrations and the rise of the first cities. The birth of farming. The first written code of laws. That’s where their cultural roots are. The culture is so old, so ingrained, that it is likely as permanent as the desert. Slavery (to God) and martyrdom are crucial to the tenants of Islam but are based in a far older culture. The slave culture, the culture that separated the Greeks from the Persians, is still there. I recommend that everyone interested in the area read Why Arabs Loose Wars for some cultural and structural insight to modern Arab militaries.

In a sense, it is all so simple. All that must change is how people of the region perceive themselves. However, think of how difficult it is for each of to change how we perceive things. Then think of how difficult that is for a culture. Most people don’t even realize how they perceive things and what their biases are. Many who do, don’t care. Even if the oil ran out the culture wouldn’t change much.

[Centurion1]

Vladimir good article, i enjoyed it.

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

The article certainly is thought provoking, and I for one agree whole-heartedly with it's conclusion. Change, particularly democratic change, cannot be imposed, or pressured into being by an external agent.

Any western military presence gives staunch Islamists more scope for viewing and presenting the West as a fundamental threat to the Islamic way of life (a la Huntingdon's Clash of Civilisations argument). On the other hand, the best way to change this view is to assist wherever we are allowed to or asked to. The withdrawal of troops shold promote trust, and could theoretically have a great, positive impact on inter-cultural relations as a whole.

[Sarmatian]

The article Vladimir posted might be interesting from a military point of view, but it really doesn't deal with anything else.

[Centurion1]

Unfortunately the author was probably attacked as a racist and anti islam. Even though he is only stating a reasonable line of thought.............. any somewhat intelligent person could see that, be they liberal or conservative. Truly political correctness has gone on for far too long.

[Sarmatian]

Unfortunately the author was probably attacked as a racist and anti islam. Even though he is only stating a reasonable line of thought.............. any somewhat intelligent person could see that, be they liberal or conservative. Truly political correctness has gone on for far too long.

You know that something like that happened or did you just use this opportunity to say that in your opinion political correctness has gone too far?

[KukriKhan]

In a sense, it is all so simple. All that must change is how people of the region perceive themselves.

Man, ain't that always the case.

And ain't that always the problem. To solve. By someone.

Question is: by someone inside or outside? By force from outside (historically works for ca. 50 years), or inside (historically works for generations ~ centuries). Inside seems more workable (to me).

Both sides need a Ghandi. Problem solvers who 'get' the essentials of the conflict.

Pretend, for a moment, that Isreal says: "OK we've had enough, and we're tired of trying to preserve that which has been given to us by *od, or the UN, or Europe, or the US; we're moving - lock, stock and barrel, to New South Wales, to reside in *od-forsaken land, to create a New Jerusalem."

If Jews just disappered from the Middle East "overnight"?

What would TelAviv, Jerusalem, Hebron, look like in 5 years? Nice places? Tourist magnets? Cauldrons of Democracy? Most importantly: places friendly to western ideology?

OK, switch gears: Palestine abandons its position, merges with Jordan, Syria & Egypt in population. Israel remains a declared State.

What bad happens, in either scenario?

[Fragony]

Could it just be that they are backward over there for the very same reason that they are backward over here.

[Cronos Impera]

The Arab world is getting less socialist and more hedonistic. That is the change in sight. We now see more and more "money terrorists" who demand cash rather than a state in Palestine, world Islam or who knows. We also see more and more Muslims "corrupted" by Western capitalism.

An example:
Omar Haysam is a Syrian terrorist who abducted 3 Romanian journalists. He was also a wealthy real estate dealer and loanshark, so the IRS had their eyes on him for quite a while. His solution: abduct a few journalists in Iraq to create a diversion. Unfortunately for him the scheme was too obvious and he soon became the first "casualty" of the Anti-Terrorism Act.
He ran away with most of his belongings and is now an Interpol fugitive. His accomplice was also an American and Iraqi citizen and was sentenced to death in Iraq.

The other famous Arab in my country is a Palestinian who runs ER. He might become the next Minister of Health.

[Idaho]

Could it just be that they are backward over there for the very same reason that they are backward over here.

Oh do tell Fragony, do tell.

[Fragony]

Oh do tell Fragony, do tell.

Well everything, anything but one thing.

naturally.

[Idaho]

Well everything, anything but one thing.

naturally.

Sorry - I don't understand. Can you explain clearly please?

[Centurion1]

Originally Posted by Centurion1 View Post
Unfortunately the author was probably attacked as a racist and anti islam. Even though he is only stating a reasonable line of thought.............. any somewhat intelligent person could see that, be they liberal or conservative. Truly political correctness has gone on for far too long.

You know that something like that happened or did you just use this opportunity to say that in your opinion political correctness has gone too far?

I said probably. Sorry wasn't meant to turn into a rant about political correctness, which is necessary to a certain level. I just mentioned because he made especially clear that the ideas were his own.

[Fragony]

Sorry - I don't understand. Can you explain clearly please?

Well if you insist on me typing it, it is backward because islam is backward, satisfied?

And a little thought, maybe it isn't that they don't feel their country is theirs, maybe they feel their life isn't theirs, omg who would have thought.

[Vladimir]

The article Vladimir posted might be interesting from a military point of view, but it really doesn't deal with anything else.

You missed the point of the article. It provides valuable insights on Arab culture and methodology.

[rotorgun]

Christ said "If you want to remove the mote that is in your nieghbor's eye, you must first remove the beam that is in your own. Then you will clearly understand what must be done..." or words to that effect. This principal is one we never apply when dealing with the Arab/Islamic world. We must somehow become able to see things from their point of view, if we are ever able to reach an understanding.

[Idaho]

Well if you insist on me typing it, it is backward because islam is backward, satisfied?

And a little thought, maybe it isn't that they don't feel their country is theirs, maybe they feel their life isn't theirs, omg who would have thought.

What do you mean by backward? What's the benchmark?

[Fragony]

adjective; behind in time or progress; late; slow: a backward learner; a backward country.

[Idaho]

So how would a muslim be backward if they lived in Holland.

[Fragony]

The same archaic customs/views as in their own country's, inequality of man and woman with the oppression that comes from it, marrying their own family's, no interest in education, arts literature. That's pretty backward.

[Idaho]

The same archaic customs/views as in their own country's, inequality of man and woman with the oppression that comes from it, marrying their own family's, no interest in education, arts literature. That's pretty backward.

What if Holland is their own country (they were born there and knew no different) and they followed a brand of islam which didn't subscribe to the views you have outlined above?

[Fragony]

What if Holland is their own country (they were born there and knew no different) and they followed a brand of islam which didn't subscribe to the views you have outlined above?

Why would I care if things were like that, but they aren't. All the things above are problems here as well in the country's they come from. They can be a bit like the stereotypical russian 'oh aunty how terrible is this all' in a 'it is/was god's will' kinda way, it's a sort of fatalism with which they accept their situation, that does keep them back.

[Husar]

I'm not very interested in arts and literature either, does that make me backwards and unworthy as well?
Inequality between man and woman is also in the bible but most christian women would not say they are oppressed.
That leaves the archaic customs which are indeed often stupid but which we have here as well, we're just used to them.
That's not to say their culture isn't different, but just saying they're backwards and that's the way it is isn't going to help anyone, our atheistic ways have so far managed to erode most religions, and it never took them just a few years, give them some time.

[Fragony]

That's not to say their culture isn't different, but just saying they're backwards and that's the way it is isn't going to help anyone, our atheistic ways have so far managed to erode most religions, and it never took them just a few years, give them some time.

Well let's just say that there is very little room for compromise. And it's kinda funny, muslims are abandoning the socialists and are going for the leftist liberals, they are fed up with the socialists not understanding they aren't all deeply religious. Epic fail.