Maratha, definitely. Don't make any alliances, and don't take Goa yourself. In my last game, Mysore took Goa, and then I was able to take it from Mysore (and wipe them off the map) without angering the Portuguese. If that doesn't happen, Portugal will eventually get destroyed and lose the province anyway. Leave Ceylon alone until you move out of India. This keeps you in good relations with all of Europe, so you can maximize trade routes.
It takes time to defeat the Mughals, but they're a pushover and aren't allied with anyone. After you unite India, you can decide if you want to expand to the northwest through Persia and take on the Ottomans, or go adventuring in the Caribbean. The Caribbean is the obvious choice (IMO), since there will still be some easy pickings after you unite India. Taking Ceylon and the UP's Caribbean territory gives you a good base of operations in the south of that region. I kept up a low-grade war against Persia without taking all their provinces, as a buffer against the Ottomans. You can probably stay friendly (and trading) with the Ottomans for a long time, as long as you don't knock out Persia and share a common border.
Maratha is so easy as a turtle faction, that it's boring. I wouldn't play them again, but it was a good way to experiment with the tech trees and trading, learning the game without having the whole world at war with me.
P.S. I realize that starting at war with the Mughals, and the need to constantly keep taking their territory isn't exactly the definition of "turtling", but it's the closest you can get with this game. And you can do some true turtling after the Mughals are gone.
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