1. Alliances prevent Wars. When you have allies, other factions are more reluctant to attack you. Always make some friends in the first turn, especially if you start out alone. Don't make too many allies though, unless you want to get dragged into unnecessary wars.
2. Watch where you step. Each faction in ETW is hard-wired to want certain regions, such as their core regions, victory conditions, and historical goals. When you take these regions for yoursef, be prepared for an inevitable attack. For example, my very friendly Russian ally backstabbed me when I held on to Petersburg for too long. This is a major reason for AI re-declaring war after a treaty, because you still have something they want.
3. Watch who you share borders with. Always be extra careful with bordering nations, and watch out when you expand your borders. In the case of crazy Minors, sharing borders is enough to guarantee a war.
4. Always keep enough stacks in your regions. I can't stress this hard enough. No matter how friendly your neighbors or even allies are, or how preoccupied they seem, ALWAYS keep an army at home to rival them. The AI calculates the armies inside your regions as a whole, not individually, so you don't need to garrison every town. But when your armies are on hostile soil, the AIs no longer register them in your total strength. So keep the campaigning as short as possible, unless you want to bait an attack.
5. Minors will always attack sooner or later. You can only minimize the damage by making them protectorates ASAP, which cancels all their alliances. Nobody likes to get dragged into a major war because some minor's got a deathwish.
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