We can rule the world and the Gameroom is the key to that!

**Cronos Impera** · 10-12-2009, 09:04

Last night, after my third lecture on Issac Asimov' Foundation series gave me a revelation/

If people ware inspired to perfect the submarine from Jules Verne' novels others could be inspired to develop Psihohstory from Issac Asimov' novels.

And, since from what I know that science involves great masses, a controlled environment and some worthy equations to bind the response of the mass to a particular stimulus we could start the research from the Org itself.
And what better place to find a mass and stimulus than the Gameroom, where every post makes the difference between lynch and victory.

We could start by issuing mathematical equations to solve the riddles of mafia vs. townie games, by identifying, measuring, and implementing the stimulus used by townies and mafia to win their game. Than we can apply statistics and find the margin of error within that formula, than adjust the formula and voila: The first use of Psihohystory in the known universe.

Than we could extrapolate the findings, find the common parameter and establish it's trend. Than use that parameter to express all other factors. Than include an incremental deviation in the formula to fit all results. Than interpret the result based on factual knowledge.Than use that trend in a histogram or a chart.

Than we've got Psihohistory, predicting the future before it happens so we can all invest in the safest bounds and bank deposits without getting jacked, without social learning crap, and ....all kinds of crap.
All trends reduced to mathematics. True psihohistory, not that moronic PC site founded by DeMause.

It would be a challenge, and a worthy intellectual one to begin with but I know statistics and some basic psychology. I know some of you studied psychology in high school or collage as part of social sciences.

What I need to begin with:
1)A list of all stimulus found in Mafia games.
2)We'll use a positive numeric scale to identify the importance of each stimulus
3)Than we'll implement that in a mathematical equation

And than find a correlation between the masses found in mafia games (Mini M vs. Large) and try determine what if the correction is a fuction of mass.

**CountArach** · 10-12-2009, 09:33

Count me as confused.

**Banquo's Ghost** · 10-12-2009, 13:03

Me too. Though I think Cronos refers to psychohistory.

However, it sounds a little like the ideas behind the Wisdom of Crowds millarkey. Which is bunk because of Chaos Theory.

**Cronos Impera** · 10-12-2009, 14:18

Yes. I am not referring to Psychogenic crap.
A small demonstration:
Take a handful of Orgahs and place them in a chain, cuff them and have them run in a straight line blindfolded.
Some run faster, some stumble, some are left-footed, others are right-footed.
But you'll witness a motion.

Double the number of Orgahs and the movement will be smoother.Get all Orgahs in a massive chain and they'll produce no deviation.
All individual qualities will be obliterated by social dynamics encouraged by certain stimulus that affect not the boy/girl, but the group itself.
Such subconscious factors are unaccounted for by normal psychiatry and psychology and you cannot understand them by individual observation, but by mathematical equations and statistical deviations.
The tree helps you understand a tree, but you cannot grasp a forest by cataloging individual trees.
Such is the story with Psychohistory vs. Psychology.
You can't apply Psychology to masses because of chaos theory which ruins your conclusions, like you cannot apply Psychohistory to an individual because the variables are too few.

**KukriKhan** · 10-12-2009, 14:44

The ability to extrapolate small-group behavior into predicting large-group behavior is fraught with peril. Though theoretically possible, there are too many unknowable, or unquantifiable, factors to be precise. Folks a lot smarter than I have shown that, statistically, The Roman Empire should have "fallen" 200 years before it did, and that the Soviet Empire should have lasted well into the 22nd century. Yet Rome and the USSR fell when they did.

IMO emotion drives as much of history as enlightened self (group)-interest. And we don't have a good handle on being able to measure emotional motivation.

All that said: good luck Cronos. on your project.

**Gregoshi** · 10-12-2009, 14:57

The only thing I've noticed related to this is: the larger the crowd, the dumber they collectively get.

**Cronos Impera** · 10-12-2009, 15:42

Nice input so far:
The Internet is the best medium to test the theory and have a controlled enviroment for such an experiment and carry it objectively.You just can't do it in RL without huge logistics and costs. Therefore a forum offers the best ground for a psychohistorical experiment to take place, without losing your life's earnings and no forum existed before, for such purposes.

I'll try to get my own psichohistorical experiment here with Mafia games. If I'm succesful and predict with a deviation of a night round the outcome of 3 large Mafia games, than we have a low-level Psychohistorical formula, which could be extrapolated upon to include other variables and increase in significance.

Stage 1: Identify the stimulus
For Gameroomers:
This would determine the key factors in a Mafia Game which influence your behaviour:

a) What number do you trust more?
1
2
3
4
5
6
20

b) Which of the previous figures made you sick?

c) Which sample arrangement you like more?

Aa
Aa
-----------
Aa
Aa

d)How many Mafia games you played?

e)How many have you won/lost?

f)Mention those Games so I could get my synopsis for them.

Be relaxed.Be yourselves when posting. Try to focus on your inner self.

**Askthepizzaguy** · 10-12-2009, 23:13

Originally Posted by Gregoshi

The only thing I've noticed related to this is: the larger the crowd, the dumber they collectively get.

And that is why your species is doomed. All hail the glorious insect queen!

**Beskar** · 10-12-2009, 23:29

Originally Posted by Gregoshi

The only thing I've noticed related to this is: the larger the crowd, the dumber they collectively get.

The US elections were a great example. I mean, really, it was bad enough Bush was president the first time, but a second time?

**Kadagar_AV** · 10-13-2009, 00:21

Cronos Impera,

The org, wonderful as it is, does not make a valid base for human behaviour.

First of all, it is way to centered around americans. Secondly, all of the people here have one thing in common, we like strategic games.

I think we can take for granted that the IQ of a general org poster is significantly higher than the human average.

Oh, and we basicly have NO girls here. As they make up roughly half of the population I'd say they should be included in the formula, no?

Originally Posted by Gregoshi

The only thing I've noticed related to this is: the larger the crowd, the dumber they collectively get.

This is a side note, but I don't agree.

In a way, yes they get dumber individualy. However, they will collectively make better decisions (up to a point).

100 people will make a better decision that 10 people, however, a million people will generally make a worse decision than 100 people.

With only ten people, even the idiot needs to be listened to.

With 100 people, people will choose someone to think and argue for them, someone they think is doing a better job at it.

With a million people (or more of course) individual thought does not exist, and information will be filtered through external means, both on the way up, and on the way down.

And as someone pointed out, yes the american elections is a very good example of this.

Explain how an individual, with a LOT of life experience, only gets to choose between 2 (!) options, and these two options filters down to gunbortion.

Sorry if I am ranting, hope my thoughts were interesting to someone :)

**gaelic cowboy** · 10-12-2009, 22:58

Originally Posted by Banquo's Ghost

Me too. Though I think Cronos refers to psychohistory.

However, it sounds a little like the ideas behind the Wisdom of Crowds millarkey. Which is bunk because of Chaos Theory.

Does understanding chaos therory render it invalid

**Aemilius Paulus** · 10-12-2009, 23:57

There is a reason no serious psychologist or sociologist dabbles much in this, or more accurately, why there are no serious centres of higher education devoted to it. As much as I esteem Asimov and appreciate his works, psychohistory is well..., I think we all know what it is. I would not say pseudoscience, given the reason why Asimov created the concept of it, but it is certainly not real science.

The useful and agreed-upon concepts of psychohistory are a part of sociology. The other parts are junk science, or so goes the general scientific consensus. Particularly amusing, I find, is its interpretation of history and societies based on the methods of child-rearing.

Often times, when reading their awkward, bumbling, and grotesquely generalising methods of data collection and organisation, reminded of creationism for some reason... The general atmosphere is the same, in my amateur judgement, in the sense that the result is equally comical. Except that by nature, sociology is a greatly less precise science, always floating barely above pseudoscience given the farcical assumptions that cannot be accurately propped up by empirical data or the scientific method it is do fond of employing.

The chief problem of psychohistory, in my opinion, even if the indomitable barriers of the impossibility of reliable data collection are at last surmounted (inconceivable), then the results would prove to be overwhelming, presenting a stupendously low deviation, as all will inevitably average out to the point of indistinctness. There is a reason why sociologists do their best to refrain from wholescale analysis of an entire nation.

That and the Chaos Hypothesis of course

, which is an even “chiefer” barrier. The factors are infinite and humans appear to display a trend of flaunting randomness nowadays, which will further complicate the picture. Trivial events, trivial pieces of misderived data can complicate the flow of history, and ugh, my cognitive functions are already overloading from the torrent of pertinent, yet madly varied factors... Enough of this, such calculations are a fantasy…

I know how simple it is to become caught up in the lectures about such fascinating material, believe me, I have been there, and done that, but the best part about those “revelations”, or at least for me, was stopping to play the Devil’s Advocate in an internal debate within oneself, deducing why they would not work. Once again, there is usually a solid rationale for that

. That said, this is valuable intellectual experience, and by no means should it be circumvented for varying reasons.

**Lord Winter** · 10-13-2009, 00:46

Originally Posted by Cronos Impera

Last night, after my third lecture on Issac Asimov' Foundation series gave me a revelation/

If people ware inspired to perfect the submarine from Jules Verne' novels others could be inspired to develop Psihohstory from Issac Asimov' novels.

And, since from what I know that science involves great masses, a controlled environment and some worthy equations to bind the response of the mass to a particular stimulus we could start the research from the Org itself.
And what better place to find a mass and stimulus than the Gameroom, where every post makes the difference between lynch and victory.

We could start by issuing mathematical equations to solve the riddles of mafia vs. townie games, by identifying, measuring, and implementing the stimulus used by townies and mafia to win their game. Than we can apply statistics and find the margin of error within that formula, than adjust the formula and voila: The first use of Psihohystory in the known universe.

Than we could extrapolate the findings, find the common parameter and establish it's trend. Than use that parameter to express all other factors. Than include an incremental deviation in the formula to fit all results. Than interpret the result based on factual knowledge.Than use that trend in a histogram or a chart.

Than we've got Psihohistory, predicting the future before it happens so we can all invest in the safest bounds and bank deposits without getting jacked, without social learning crap, and ....all kinds of crap.
All trends reduced to mathematics. True psihohistory, not that moronic PC site founded by DeMause.

It would be a challenge, and a worthy intellectual one to begin with but I know statistics and some basic psychology. I know some of you studied psychology in high school or collage as part of social sciences.

What I need to begin with:
1)A list of all stimulus found in Mafia games.
2)We'll use a positive numeric scale to identify the importance of each stimulus
3)Than we'll implement that in a mathematical equation

And than find a correlation between the masses found in mafia games (Mini M vs. Large) and try determine what if the correction is a fuction of mass.

Kommodus has already tried using a statistical method in mafia with some sucess. However, CR has beaten it before. His system was more a tool to notice devations from normal behavior then an actual method to predict the result. In the end I think the mafia games are to random to predict with certainty, I mean look at Reenk, or read Piraite ship mafia , many of the lynches are based off of mostly random trends at the start of the game. I would still love to see a statistical/gametheroy anyalsis of mafia, all the data is there if you want it. Just look in the stickies. You may not be able to predict everything ala psihohistory but I would bet that you would still find allot of interesting results.